Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 52

UFC Vegas 52: Lemos vs Andrade – 4.23.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 52: Lemos vs Andrade. While the card this evening lacks star power and enticing matchups, there are certainly some solid betting spots that can be taken advantage of. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 99-49-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 98-50-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 4-22-2022 at 11pm EST from Bet99

Preliminary Card- Starts 6:00pm EST

Dean Barry -1500 vs Mike Jackson +800

Anthony: Our card opens with a goofy fight at welterweight between Mike Jackson and Dean Barry. It is shocking to see Barry as such a prohibitive favorite despite being just 4-1 as professional. His wins have come over very low-level competition and he does not warrant this price tag against any opponent… aside from Mike Jackson. Jackson has good boxing and muay thai fundamentals, but he does not belong in the UFC. The last time fought was an ugly decision win over AEW wrestler CM Punk. That took place nearly four years ago, and his only other professional fight was a loss to Mickey Gall which lasted less than a minute in 2016. This is surely going to be his last fight in the promotion now at the age of 37. Barry has very solid kickboxing and I see him securing an easy win here. Jackson will either be running into counters in an attempt to push the action or we will see him picked apart from distance. Dean Barry by Round Two KO
Nick: It is comical this fight is taking place on a UFC card. Mike Jackson has very little professional experience. He was only on the roster to fight CM Punk back in 2018, and after that win Dana White said he’d be cut for a terrible performance. Jackson was expected to run through Punk, but he won an uninspiring decision in which he really didn’t do anything of note. He has some technical boxing ability, but he’s far from athletic. There’s really nothing about his skillset that suggests he belongs in the promotion. Dean Barry is getting an excellent match up here. Barry really doesn’t deserve to be fighting in the UFC either, but at the very least he has shown KO power on the regional scene and he should continue to improve at just 29-years-old. This is a truly low-level matchup and the line here is ridiculous. Barry should win by knockout here, but there’s nothing about his skill set that suggests he’s going to have much success in future matchups. Jackson could lean on a grappling heavy gameplan to make this boring and steal a win on the scorecards. However, the UFC is clearly using Jackson as a stepping stone here. I don’t see the same promise for Barry that they are by making this matchup, but he should be favored. Barry in an interview mentioned Mick Maynard had a second matchup for him lined up following Jackson. Dean Barry by Round One KO

Marcin Prachnio -120 vs Phillipe Lins -105

Anthony: Next is a matchup at light heavyweight between Marcin Prachnio and Phillipe Lins. After losing three fights to begin his UFC career, Prachnio has an opportunity to right the ship and secure his third win in a row tonight. He has good footwork and mobility for the upper weight classes. Prachnio has solid distance striking and only really gets into trouble when pressured up against the cage. I am not overly concerned with that today as he faces Lins. The move back down from heavyweight seems like a positive career choice for the Brazilian. However, I really do not think he belongs in the UFC. All the success that Lins achieved in the PFL and Bellator was against poor competition. He is now 36 years old and cannot be relied on for consistent output. Prachnio should be able to keep this fight at distance and pick apart Lins from range. He lands 6.28 significant strikes per minute compared to a mere 2.66 from Lins. He should have no problem placing the cleaner shots and using his movement to keep safe defensively. Marcin Prachnio by Decision
Nick: Phillipe Lins entered the UFC as a highly regarded heavyweight prospect. He is a former PFL Champion at Heavyweight. He won that title against a low level of competition, so at the UFC level it’s likely wise for him to make this move down to 205. He’ll be moving down to light heavyweight for the first time since 2017, to take on a mediocre light heavyweight in Marcin Prachnio. Prachnio is a decent striker at range, but he leaves himself open to counters. He doesn’t really have the technical prowess to stay out of the way of power, but he is coming off consecutive wins for the first time since 2017. This is a matchup I expect to primarily take place on the feet, where I see Lins’ power eventually being the difference maker. Prachnio is the higher volume striker, but I think this is a favorable matchup for Lins as Lins sometimes struggles to lead the dance. Eight of Lins’ thirteen professional wins have come via KO. He looked the best he ever has at weigh-ins for this matchup, and I’m encouraged by the fact that he’s been training out of a solid gym in American Top Team. Prachnio is likely to look good early here, but I expect Lins to eventually find his chin. Phillipe Lins by Round Two KO

Preston Parsons -130 vs Evan Elder +105

Anthony: This fight at welterweight between Preston Parsons and Evan Elder materialized earlier in the week. Unfortunately, Parson’s original opponent Louis Cosce tested positive for coronavirus and was forced to withdraw. Elder is now making his promotional debut on just a few days’ notice up at 170 pounds. He is undefeated as a professional at 7-0, accruing three wins last year. The level of competition has not been great, but the activity and striking prowess of Elder are certainly promising signs for what is to come. He trains at an excellent camp at Sanford MMA and certainly is live in this spot giving his power and accuracy. I ultimately think Parson’s grappling advantage is what ends up deciding this one. All nine of his victories have come by way of submission and he is going to completely outclass Elder if things hit the mat. He is also a true welterweight while Elder has fought every fight at lightweight since turning pro. He is undersized and the difference in strength will certainly be felt if Parsons can secure top position. While I recognize that Elder is a dangerous prospect with a high ceiling, this is an easy bet on the more established fighter on a full training camp. Preston Parsons by Round Two Submission
Nick: All nine of Preston Parson’s professional wins have come via submission. He’s a dangerous grappler with decent entries for takedowns as well as respectable chin and cardio. Evan Elder will be taking this fight on just four days’ notice, fighting out of an excellent camp in Sanford MMA. He’s coming off back-to-back wins via KO, but he really hasn’t been tested against a high level of competition. He seems strong for a lightweight and his overall game seems well rounded, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding just how dangerous he is, as most of his wins have come against opponents with losing records. He seems competent on the feet, but he also seems to telegraph his bigger shots. This is a very low-level matchup so my confidence in this pick is low. However, I’ll side with Parsons here just because he has the clearer path to victory. If he can get this fight to the mat, I expect his BJJ to be more advanced than anything Elder has faced before. Preston Parsons by Round Two Submission

Aoriqileng -250 vs Cameron Else +190

Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight between Cameron Else and Aoriqileng. So far in the UFC I have faded Aoriqileng twice and cashed two tickets successfully. The prospect from China has incredible power for the lower weight divisions, but he relies too heavily on his thunderous right hand. Often Aoriqileng is headhunting and eating shots in order to set up and land his overhands. His volume is limited and there are certainly methods to beat him by fighting a more efficient gameplan. Else has yet to show much to get excited about but he is an aggressive finisher with a lot of power of his own. With this being a fight at 135 pounds, he will have an advantage in terms of strength. Aoriqileng belongs at flyweight and I do not like seeing so many regional losses on his resume. He is very experienced, but I have trouble supporting a fighter taking damage and losing fights to low-level opponents in China. Else should be able to mix things up and make this a competitive contest. I hope to see him following up his big overhand attacks with takedowns. I am surprised to see the odds this wide and will take a shot on the underdog here for that reason. Cameron Else by Decision
Nick: Aoriqileng is extremely aggressive, but when he faces highly technical strikers he sometimes puts himself in danger overexerting himself in exchanges and leaving himself open to counter shots. He is coming off a hard-fought decision loss to Cody Durden, but at just 21-years old there’s a good chance we continue to see him make considerable improvements. His striking looked refined against Durden, but the holes in his wrestling and defensive grappling ultimately led to a very close loss via decision. Aoriqileng is likely going to have the advantage when this fight is standing, and Else is likely to have an advantage if this fight hits the mat. Cameron Else fell to Kyler Phillips in his UFC debut. He’s fairly well rounded but doesn’t seem to have any singular standout skill. It wouldn’t surprise me if he can ground Aoriqileng early here, but I’m not confident in his ability to keep him grounded. Aoriqileng is the more athletic and explosive fighter with better overall durability. The line does feel wide here as Aoriqileng is so young, but he’s the pick. I’m not confident in Else’s ability to consistently compete at this level. Aoriqileng by Decision

Tyson Pedro -700 vs Ike Villanueva +465

Anthony: This is a fight at light heavyweight between Tyson Pedro and Ike Villanueva. Pedro has not been in action since 2018, losing to Shogun Rua in a fight that saw him finished in the third and final round. He specializes in grappling with five victories by submission and only two by way of knockout. I would not recommend betting on him at odds like this but the path to victory is certainly clear against an opponent like Villanueva. Hurricane Ike is nothing more than a boxer and thus far in the UFC he is a mediocre 1-4. While he will be live in the early going here, Pedro should have little to no issue finding a finish once this fight hits the mat. I think the best look in this fight is to play the under. Villanueva does have hands and it would not surprise me to see him catch Pedro, who has dealt with ring rust, injuries and a two-fight losing streak of his own. However, the most likely outcome seems to be a quick takedown and submission by the Australian fighter. Tyson Pedro by Round One Submission
Nick: Ike Villanueva is a striker. He’s a fairly technical boxer offensively with true KO power. However, he doesn’t really move his head, he telegraphs his bigger shots, and there are questions surrounding his durability as seven of his thirteen professional losses have come via KO. Tyson Pedro has been out of action since 2018, following multiple injuries including a torn ACL. He’s a competent striker, but a very talented BJJ practitioner and one of the better grapplers at 205 pounds. Villanueva’s takedown defense is virtually non-existent so it feels like the UFC is giving Pedro a lay-up here. He’s facing one of the worst fighters on the roster in his first fight back, and he has a very clear path to victory via his grappling. As long as he doesn’t engage in a brawl with Villanueva, he should cruise to a win here. I expect him to score an early takedown without much resistance, advance position and secure a submission win. Tyson Pedro by Round One Submission

Sergey Khandozhko -125 vs Dwight Grant +100

Anthony: Here we have a welterweight matchup between Dwight Grant and Sergey Khandozhko. This is the fight I have the least confidence picking on tonight’s card. Khandozhko has been out of competition since 2019, dealing with injuries and a positive coronavirus test last fall. He has remained training in the gym but it is difficult to expect much from him here in a return to action. Ring rust is a real concern and for a karate style guy like Khandozhko, I could see his volume being much lower than we are accustomed to seeing. Grant is a guy who fights at a rather modest pace too. He lands just a third of his strikes thrown and really only poses a threat in short bursts, given his immense power. I think Grant will find opportunities to land big strikes from both stances here today but I really am not confident betting him even at plus money. I think his chances of finding a finish are higher than that of Khandozhko, but it is anyone’s guess as to who wins if this fight ends up seeing the scorecards. Dwight Grant by Decision
Nick: Sergey Khandozhko will be stepping into the cage for the first time since 2019. He’s fairly well-rounded with twelve professional wins via KO, seven via submission, and eight via decision. He’s a master of sport in hand to hand combat and karate out of Russia. His defensive grappling leaves a lot to be desired but this particular matchup isn’t likely to expose that part of his game. Dwight Grant recently left one of the better camps in the country in AKA. He is fairly well-rounded with accurate striking but he doesn’t really throw a ton of volume. He has knockout power, but if he doesn’t finish his fights early he sometimes struggles to maintain much of an attack. He’s most content to stand and trade, and he’s getting a game opponent here against Khandozhko. I expect Khandozhko to move in and out of range here, peppering Grant on the feet as he pulls away on the scorecards. He’ll need to be careful of Grant’s power in this spot, but it’s such an obvious threat that I expect he’ll game plan appropriately. This is another low confidence pick as I’m not too high on either fighter, but Khandozhko feels like the proper favorite. Sergey Khandozhko by Decision

Marc-Andre Barriault -200 vs Jordan Wright +160

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with a 190-pound catchweight bout between Marc-Andre Barriault and Jordan Wright. This is a clash between two high pressure fighters and I cannot imagine the judge’s scorecards will be needed. Every fight Wright has had ended inside of the distance, with not a single one reaching the third round. He has great power, a wide arsenal of strikes, sneaky takedowns and a very active ground game. The large issue has been his chin having been starched by opponents on numerous occasions. I love the offensive output but am reluctant to back him here once again seeing such a flaw in his durability. Barriault has traditionally been tough to finish, but a single punch from Chidi Njokuani finished him early in their fight this past February. Normally he overwhelms opponents with high volume and control against the cage, but Wright is a very dangerous man to clinch with given his muay thai skills and heavy hands. Barriault took this fight on fairly short notice after Roman Kopylov had been forced to withdraw. I think I will take a shot on the underdog here in hopes Barriault is rushing back into combat a bit too soon. These odds are wider than I believe they should be. Jordan Wright by Round One KO
Nick: Barriault likes to come forward and crowd his opponents. He has power in his strikes and does a good job putting his opponents on their back foot. His durability usually allows him to easily close distance, and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges using strength over technique. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come via taking damage easy and waiting for his opponents to drain their gas tanks then taking over late. Wright is powerful and athletic, but he seems to fold when he’s met with adversity. He’s a rangy striker with true knockout power, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He’s more than willing to eat shots to throw them, but his durability is questionable at best as two of his last three outings have resulted in KO losses. Wright is live for the KO upset here, but his defensive ability and chin seem to be far less advanced compared to Barriault. As long as Barriault can weather the early attack of Wright, he should be able to take over and find a timely KO. Marc-Andre Barriault by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 9:00pm EST

Charles Jourdain -120 vs Lando Vannata -105

Anthony: Our main card opens with a featherweight fight between Charles Jourdain and Lando Vannata. Both these guys are coming off impressive wins in this division. Vannata last saw action nearly a year ago, seemingly taking longer camps between fights as he gets older and older. He has fought very high-level opponents in the past but rarely wins, and often takes a significant amount of damage. While I think the move to 145 pounds could be beneficial for Vannata, he looked very drained on the scales yesterday. Against a younger and more sophisticated striker like Jourdain I see him having trouble keeping pace over the course of fifteen minutes. I think the Canadian fighter has really started to take steps in the right direction. Jourdain had been scheduled to face Ilia Topuria earlier this year and I think he has potential to beat a few ranked fighters in this division. Vannata could expose Jourdain on the mat here given his porous takedown defense, but that is not the style we often see him fight. Vannata averages just one takedown per bout and I am doubtful he wrestles his way to a victory here. It should be an intense fight and I find it difficult to pick, but Jourdain is going to be the guy I trust my money with here today. He has proven to have reliable cardio and it feels like he is being a bit undervalued at the current odds. Charles Jourdain by Decision
Nick: Jourdain has flashed knockout power, which was fully on display in his UFC debut against Doo Ho Choi. He throws a wide range of flashy strikes, pushing an excellent pace and controlling the cage against lower-level opponents. He’s coming off an impressive and dominant win over Andre Ewell, but this matchup with Vannata represents a considerable step up in competition. Lando Vannata is a hyper-aggressive fighter known for his willingness to brawl. He likes to throw a lot of spinning attacks and at his best he’s capable of hanging with top level fighters. Vannata has really changed his game from being hyper-aggressive to a more heady and conservative approach. While this change in styles could extend Vannata’s career, it makes it tougher for him to take over a fight and impose his will on opponents. Vannata has a decent wrestling base and I expect he’ll have a considerable grappling advantage in this matchup. Jourdain’s takedown defense sits at a terrible 48%. Vannata should be able to hang on his feet here, but I’m comfortable backing him knowing he can lean on his grappling if he can’t. Jourdain continues to improve and it wouldn’t shock me if he scores a win, but Vannata’s more well-rounded game and overall experience should be the deciding factor. Lando Vannata by Decision

Alexander Romanov -1600 vs Chase Sherman +800

Anthony: Next we have a bout at heavyweight between Alexander Romanov and Chase Sherman. After losing his third straight fight in January, Sherman was released from the UFC to pursue opportunities in another organization. However, he got the call to come back and take this fight on short notice after Romanov’s original opponent Tanner Boser had withdrawn. He apparently got promised four more fights and a much better pay rate but Sherman is not going to fare well here today. Not only is he out of camp but Sherman is facing one of the bigger and more decorated ground fighters in the division. Romanov has an unorthodox and high-pressure style that melts opponents. He utilizes brute force to close the distance and finds takedowns stemming largely from his roots in sumo wrestling. Seeing as how Jake Collier made easy work of Sherman on the ground it is to be expected Romanov does the same. I expect him to secure an early finish here either by choke or dominant ground and pound. Romanov will not be a blind bet for me as he continues to climb the heavyweight rankings but Sherman is a very easy matchup for him stylistically. Alexander Romanov by Round One Submission
Nick: It may have come against mediocre competition, but the 31-year-old Romanov has shown an uncanny ability to lift other heavyweights entirely off the ground and rag-doll them as if they were a whole lot smaller. He has decent striking, but highly effective ground-and-pound and a decent choke game when can take his opponents to the mat. For a borderline out-of-shape Heavyweight, Romanov has solid cardio. He usually looks fine late in fights, which is more than can be said for a lot of guys in this division. One of those heavyweights with cardio issues comes in his opponent here, Chase Sherman. Sherman is taking this fight on short notice, so I expect his already mediocre gas tank to do him in if this fight doesn’t end early. Sherman was once known as a powerful striker and usually comes out aggressive. He’s coming off three consecutive losses, and he’ll be taking this fight on short notice as a favor to the UFC to potentially save his job. The line has gotten ridiculous, but Romanov should roll here. He should easily ground Sherman and find either a quick submission or TKO win via ground-and-pound. Alexander Romanov by Round One Submission

Maycee Barber -185 vs Montana de La Rosa +150

Anthony: The featured bout is a women’s flyweight matchup between Montana de La Rosa and Maycee Barber. These are two solid fighters that have some valuable UFC experience already under their belt. Barber is just 23 years old, constantly adding to her repertoire and improving in every fight we have seen. She found her way back into the win column in her most recent fight, a victory over Miranda Maverick. In that bout she stuffed five of six takedown attempts which is a very telling stat heading into today’s matchup. Montana de La Rosa has a grappling focused attack that she will need to lean on heavily to get her hand raised here. Barber is the better striker and should easily sway the judges based on volume alone for as long as this fight is standing. Her strength and ability to stuff the takedowns of Maverick make me confident backing her here tonight. She will be the more effective striker and even has a chance at finding a finish depending on the pace of this bout. Maycee Barber by Decision
Nick: Montana de la Rosa is a well-rounded fighter who has shown serious improvements since making her debut. That being said, there’s really nothing about her game that suggests she’s ever going to contend for a title. She has above average wrestling ability and she thrives against inferior grapplers. However, her striking is still far from technical and she takes a lot of damage in most of her fights. Maycee Barber was once a highly regarded prospect who hit a bit of a wall back in 2020. She tore her ACL, falling as a massive favorite to Roxanne Modafferi and then dropped another decision to Alexa Grasso when she made her return in 2021. She’s coming off a solid win over Miranda Maverick, but that came via a controversial decision. Maverick seemed to win two of those three rounds, but regardless it was encouraging for Barber to get back in the win column. If de La Rosa can execute a wrestling heavy attack, she’ll be live for the upset here. However, I see Barber as the slightly more athletic and overall more athletic of the two. She should be able to sprawl and brawl on her way to another decision win. The line feels a bit too wide, but Barber is the rightful favorite. Maycee Barber by Decision

Clay Guida -110 vs Claudio Puelles -110

Anthony: The co-main event is an exciting scrap at lightweight between Clay Guida and Claudio Puelles. The UFC legend Clay Guida steps back into the cage here for yet another tough challenge. He has been enjoying quite the career resurgence, putting on excellent performances in his last three fights. He has always implemented wrestling into his primary strategy and I believe that by efficiently grappling here, he will be able to wear down and control Puelles. This is a classic matchup between a wrestler and jiu jitsu practitioner. The Luta Livre background of Puelles is often on display as he rolls for positions and sub attempts. Neither one of these two are the most potent strikers but I think Guida’s pressure and volume gives him the slight edge while this fight is standing. He will need to be careful protecting his neck when initiating takedowns, but I trust the savvy veteran to fight smart and grind out the victory here. Puelles has yet to show much I am excited about as the wins he accrued are against rather mediocre competition. This will be his toughest challenge to date and I believe his only path to victory is by way of submission. Clay Guida by Decision
Nick: Guida is a legend of the game but he’s far past his prime. He is known for his fast-paced aggressive and high-pressure style, but he’s certainly lost a lot of the explosiveness he had back when he was a legitimate contender. He’s coming off consecutive wins for the first time since 2017, and he’ll be looking for a third here against a tough out. Puelles recently changed camps to Sanford MMA, one of the best gyms in the sport. Additionally, he is a dangerous BJJ blackbelt coming off four consecutive wins under the UFC banner. Ten of Guida’s twenty professional losses have come via submission, so he’ll need to be especially careful here against a gifted grappler like Puelles. While the record is cause for some concern, it’s encouraging that Guida hasn’t been submitted since 2019. Puelles, while talented, really hasn’t seen any competition as tough or experienced as Guida. Guida has a powerful wrestling base and a better than 68% takedown defense across his long UFC career. Pulles’ BJJ is dangerous, but I expect he’ll struggle to ground Guida given his lack of wrestling ability. This is a very close matchup and one I could see going either way. However, I expect Guida to keep this standing long enough to grind out another decision victory. Clay Guida by Decision

Jessica Andrade -225 vs Amanda Lemos +180

Anthony: The main event is a women’s strawweight fight between Amanda Lemos and former champion Jessica Andrade. This is the first time Andrade has made the cut to 115 pounds since her rematch with Rose Namajunas in 2020. She has remained active in the higher weight divisions and found success, but this is clearly where she can do the most damage. Her most valuable asset is the strength brought into the octagon, sufficient to knock girls out or pick them up to be slammed. She puts together high-volume combinations, mixes her attacks well and also has a black belt in BJJ. Lemos’ takedown defense has been solid thus far in the UFC but Andrade would certainly have the advantage if able to initiate some grappling exchanges. When striking, I am expecting a good back and forth between these two. Lemos has really looked excellent, landing with great precision and using her length to an advantage at kickboxing range. Still, there is going to be a distinct power advantage in the hands of Andrade. I will not be swayed into fading her in this spot, having shared the cage with numerous champions and holding the belt herself. Lemos is not quite ready for a test this difficult and I see things getting finished by Andrade inside of 1the distance tonight. Jessica Andrade by Round Two KO
Nick: Andrade will be the more powerful striker in this one. Her only recent losses have come against champions or former champions, all of whom are amongst the best strikers in women’s MMA history. Lemos hasn’t lost a fight since 2017. Three of her last five wins have come inside the distance and she’s done an excellent job climbing the ranks at 115 pounds. In many ways, Lemos seems like a less advanced version of Andrade. They both prefer to stand and trade and find most of their success overpowering and overwhelming their opponents. That being said, Andrade has executed this gameplan at a much higher level of competition. I’ve been impressed with Lemos’ rise, but her resume pales in comparison to Andrade’s. Additionally, Andrade has shown excellent cardio as Lemos’ has seemed to drain as her fights wear on. Andrade has another advantage in her overall grappling ability. Neither are great defensively, but we’ve seen Andrade score huge slam takedowns against a wide range of opponents. Lemos will be dangerous early here, but Andrade is the more proven fighter with the better overall game. As long as she doesn’t get into an early brawl, she should win convincingly here. Jessica Andrade by Round Two KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_