Winners & Losers of the NFL Offseason

   We’re now midway through free agency, so it’s time to take stock of what we’ve seen so far. Teams have had a couple of weeks to assess their rosters, and make necessary moves while planning for the future. 

   For some teams, that’s adding the pieces that can make them contenders. For others, it’s moving on from star players in the hope of building for a better tomorrow. Whatever happens, there are always winners and losers.

   Not every team has the power to make groundbreaking moves in free agency. Some just don’t have the allure, or the prerequisite cap space to grab the best player on the market and have to look elsewhere with shrewd business moves. Others have all the necessary traits but instead blow their money on, let’s say, less than stellar moves. 

   With that in mind, let’s review who are the winners and losers of the 2022 offseason so far.

Winner: Los Angeles Chargers

   Step one for the Chargers prior to free agency was making sure they would keep their key players in the building, and that meant re-signing Mike Williams to a new deal. Williams inked a three-year $60million contract to keep him catching deep balls from Justin Herbert until 2024. Following that, the Chargers had other priorities.

   No contending team had more work to do than the Chargers on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. The Bolts finished 26th in defensive success rate and dead last in rush defensive success rate, per RBSDM and it’s clear that Brandon Staley wanted to implement his own defensive identity. Understandably, that would take time and it also meant bringing in players that could make a difference.

   Free agency started just about as well as it could have on that front. The Chargers traded for All-Pro edge defender Khalil Mack to help solidify their defensive front before adding nose tackles Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson to create a wall on the interior. This was all about shoring up the run defense.

   The cherry on top was the signing of J.C. Jackson. The Chargers desperately needed help in the secondary and signed Jackson, one of the league’s top corners, to a five-year $82.5milllion deal.

Loser: Atlanta Falcons

   The Falcons’ inclusion here is the result of missed opportunities. Hot in pursuit of Deshaun Watson, the Falcons laid it all on the line and informed Matt Ryan that he was free to find a trade partner as they looked to make a move at the quarterback position. Of course, it wasn’t as simple as that. Watson has been embroiled in a legal dispute after he was accused of sexual misconduct involving 22 women. Bringing more potential baggage to the negotiation table than usual.

   For a hot minute, it seemed like the Falcons had Watson in their grasp. Until they didn’t. Watson made a last-minute decision to pick the Browns, leaving the Falcons with egg on their face. It also meant that the Falcons went crawling back to Ryan, only to find out that the veteran still wanted a trade. And the Falcons had to accept that fact. Their franchise quarterback, and maybe the greatest player in the team’s history, felt disrespected and wanted a fresh start elsewhere.

   Aside from the embarrassing outcome that’s created a bit of resentment amongst the fanbase and Ryan himself, the trade hit the Falcons with some financial ramifications as well. Trading Ryan meant the Falcons would incur the largest dead cap hit in NFL history – a cool $40 million. 

   In addition to losing Ryan, the Falcons will be without Calvin Ridley for the year after he was suspended for betting on NFL games during the 2021 season. They also lost Foyesade Oluokon and Russell Gage – two important contributors – to other teams.

   Adding Casey Hayward and Marcus Mariota is good business, as is re-signing a few other players, but the Falcons royally messed up free agency with their handling of the Ryan situation.

Winner: Miami Dolphins

   Any time a team goes out and addresses their biggest needs in a meaningful way is a win. The Dolphins have had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL for years now. The troubles upfront have exposed and exacerbated some flaws in Tua Tagovailoa’s game – like his inconsistencies in a pressured pocket and contributed to one of the least effective run games in the NFL.

   The Dolphins initially acted fast, signing former Dallas Cowboys guard Connor Williams to a relatively cheap two-year $14million deal. Williams is a solid blocker in the passing and running games, and though he was called for the most penalties among all guards in the NFL last season (17), he finished third in pass-blocking efficiency, per PFF, and is only 25 years old.

   Even with Williams, the Dolphins still had a number of holes on the offensive line. They had the chance to go after La’el Collins, who was cut by the Cowboys during free agency, but instead made a play for the best offensive lineman on the market: Terron Armstead. Despite injuries limiting him to just  8 games in 2021, Armstead is still one of the top offensive linemen in the NFL when healthy. He had the 4th highest pass-blocking grade in the league in 2021. Suddenly, the Dolphins’ offensive line just took a massive leap forward.

  But they weren’t done. The offense has also lacked firepower over the last couple of years, so Chris Grier addressed that as well. The Dolphins drafted Jaylen Waddle with the 6th overall pick in 2021 but went a few steps further this offseason by trading for Tyreek Hill. They were also able to tag tight end Mike Gesicki, sign former Cowboys’ receiver Cedrick Wilson and running back Chase Edmonds.

The Dolphins now have a clear identity on offense: speed.

Loser: Dallas Cowboys

Yawn.

   The Cowboys are in no position to rest on their laurels after a disappointing conclusion to the 2021 season, even in the wasteland that is the NFC East. Competitors usually stock up on talent and prepare for their next swing, but the Cowboys got actively worse so far this offseason.

   Before free agency even began, the Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper to the Cleveland Browns for little more than scrap metal, simply because they couldn’t afford the cap hit of cutting or trading Ezekiel Elliott. Cooper was due to be paid $20million by the Cowboys in 2022, and his contract could have been restructured if both parties really wanted to, but that relationship obviously broke down at some point. Instead, the Cowboys traded Cooper and attached themselves to Michael Gallup long-term. If the choice was either Gallup or Cooper, the Cowboys might have made the wrong choice.

   Things didn’t get any easier for America’s Team. They had a deal lined up with their top defensive free agent, Randy Gregory, but he changed his mind at the last second and agreed to sign with the Denver Broncos. Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Gregory’s change in heart was due to a “hang up in contract language”. Whatever the terms were, they didn’t suit Gregory’s camp. Strike two.

   Strike three was the decision to cut La’el Collins, a decision that had been looming since the beginning of the offseason. As a result, the Cowboys have zero leverage in trade talks. Once one of the most dominant units in the league, the Cowboys’ offensive line is teetering on collapse after losing Collins and Williams.

   They did make some smart decisions this offseason. Re-signing Gallup wasn’t a bad move in all fairness, and bringing back Jayron Kearse and Leighton Vander Esch are also plus moves. But overall, the Cowboys have looked out of sorts in free agency and can no longer be seen as true Super Bowl contenders.

Winner: Las Vegas Raiders

   The Raiders had a choice to make. They could have waved the white flag and admitted that they were going to be the punching bag of the AFC West for the next five years, or they could have actively committed to getting better and pushing for back-to-back playoff berths. Both options had their merits, but the Raiders felt that reloading made more sense. Yet that still meant having to make the right moves, something the Raiders front office has a chequered history of in recent offseasons.

   The Raiders free agency began not with a free agent signing, but with an extension for Maxx Crosby. The former 4th round pick had a true breakout campaign in 2021, leading the NFL with 101 pressures in the regular season and adding 19 QB hits and 10 sacks, per PFF. That earned him a four-year, $94.million extension, but the Raiders weren’t finished.

   They traded away Yannick Ngakoue to the Colts in exchange for Rock Ya-Sin to give them some much-needed depth in the secondary after losing Casey Hayward to the Falcons. Ngakoue’s replacement on the defensive line, Chandler Jones, is a definite upgrade too. Unlike Ngakoue, he’ll help in the run game on early downs while adding just as much, if not more, value as a pass rusher.

   The crown jewel of free agency for the Raiders, and maybe the entire NFL offseason, was the trade for wide receiver Davante Adams. It might have cost them their first and second-round picks in 2022, and they may have to pay him close to $30million a year, but Adams is the best receiver in the league. Adding him to an offense that already features the likes of Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Derek Carr is dangerous. 

   The Raiders need more help on the offensive line, but they’re hitting all the right notes so far.

Loser: Washington Commanders

   The Commanders’ desperate and very public search for a quarterback led them down every avenue. Heck, they even inquired about Chiefs’ quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, per John Keim of ESPN. 

   You don’t need to be an NFL insider to guess how that conversation went. Eventually, that search led them to Carson Wentz for the price of a 2022 second-round pick, a 2022 third-round pick, and a 2023 third-round pick that can convert into a second-round pick. The Commanders overpaid for a quarterback that the Colts were actively trying to distance themselves from.

   It fills a need for the Commanders, but how much of an upgrade is Wentz over 2021 incumbent, Taylor Heinecke? Had the Commanders waited it out a few more weeks, they could have made a play for Baker Mayfield or Matt Ryan. Alas, their desperation got the better of them. There’s every chance that the Commanders could draft a quarterback in the first round of the NFL Draft, but if Wentz is the starter for 2022, it’s not a great sign.

   Signing Wentz took up a large chunk of the Commanders’ cap, which meant releasing star safety Landon Collins into the wild halfway through a six-year deal. That also meant rebuilding the roster would be a tough task. The team elected not to re-sign Brandon Scherff, but given his injury history, that’s not the worst move in the world unless he stays healthy and performs with the Jaguars.

   In his place, they brought in former Jaguars guard, Andrew Norwell. That’s not a bad replacement, even if his best days are behind him. The Commanders have brought back a few other players from last season, but they’ve essentially handcuffed themselves by trading for a quarterback who is, now, on his third team in three years and is also due more than $81 million over the next three seasons.

-Thomas Valentine

Twitter: @ThomasValenfine