UFC Vegas 50 Predictions

UFC Vegas 50: Santos vs Ankalaev – 3.12.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 50: Santos vs Ankalaev. After the massive pay-per-view event last week, fights return across town at the UFC Apex this evening! Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 52-32-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 57-27-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 3-11-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Azamat Murzakanov -195 vs Tafon Nchukwi +160

Anthony: The card opens with a fight at light heavyweight between Azamat Murzakanov and Tafon Nchukwi. It is exciting we get to see the debut of Murzakanov here as he has had several scheduled bouts fall apart. He had a great finish on Dana White’s Contender Series last summer to earn his spot on the UFC roster. Murzakanov is not a very imposing figure given his frame, but he is a very cerebral striker with pinpoint accuracy. A large portion of Murzakanov fights are finishes preceded by a lot of inactivity. He is very patient awaiting opening before pouncing on his opponent with thunderous strikes. He also does a good job chaining combinations into takedowns and overwhelming people on the mat. Nchukwi is probably going to run into trouble here solely because of his technical striking. I expect him to be a step slower to the punch, but I would not be surprised to see either one of them land an early knockout in this one. I am confident predicting one man is finished for the first time in his career tonight. I am not confident picking the winner though. Azamat Murzakanov by Round One KO
Nick: Nchukwi is only 6-1 professionally with four of those wins coming by knockout. In spite of his thin MMA record, he’s already a very developed striker as a former Muay Thai world champion. Known as a finisher, Nchukwi’s cardio seemed to improve his last time out in a decision win over Mike Rodriguez. He’s well-rounded, but outside of his dangerous power he doesn’t seem to bring much advanced technical ability. Murzakanov is coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Matheus Scheffel. Murzakanov is well-rounded with surprising speed and power for his frame. He’s found success against heavyweights in the past. Murzakanov is going to have a considerable speed advantage here, but Nchukwi carries the more devastating power. Both of these guys are dangerous on the feet, but Murzakanov has a clear path to victory here if he leans into a grappling heavy gameplan. This is a low confidence pick as both of these fighters still have a lot to prove, but I’m siding with Murzakanov. I have trouble fading a former heavyweight against a former middleweight, especially knowing he’ll have the grappling advantage here. Azamat Murzakanov by Round Two KO

Kris Moutinho -150 vs Guido Cannetti +120

Anthony: Next we have a bout at bantamweight between Kris Moutinho and Guido Cannetti. This is an underwhelming matchup but at least one I expect a competitive fight. Moutinho is famously known for getting beat up by Sean O’Malley in his last matchup. He absorbed 177 significant strikes to the head against one of the best strikers of all time. I do not think a beating like that does good for the longevity of Moutinho and besides that his prior resume is weak. Nearly all of his fights were for CES in Rhode Island where he went a mere 8-4. Moutinho is a boxer and I expect a veteran like Cannetti to look for the takedown early here. While I do not think highly of Cannetti at the age of 42, he should have enough gas in the tank to win two rounds against such a green opponent. Moutinho does not pose much of a power threat and for that reason I will take my chances betting the underdog. His durability may be shot but Cannetti still has the skills to win a matchup like this. Guido Cannetti by Decision
Nick: When you watch Moutinho’s regional footage he seems fairly well-rounded. Unfortunately, most of that footage has come against mediocre competition. He gained a lot of notoriety for his short notice UFC debut, but for mostly for all of the wrong reasons. Sean O’Malley absolutely styled on him in that spot, out striking him 230-70. Moutinho showed grit and a solid chin, but he never really had any big moments offensively. Guido Cannetti is a UFC vet, but he’s far past his prime. There’s a decent chance he’s released from the roster if he can’t pull off the win here. He’s 41-years old, and one of the oldest fighters in this division. He carries a lot of power, but he telegraphs most of his strikes. I expect the younger and more athletic Moutinho to show much better defense this time around. Cannetti has the more developed skillset and the overall more well-rounded game. However, he’s much slower, older, and his cardio is a blatant weakness. This is a low confidence pick as neither of these fighters likely belong in the UFC, but I’ll side with the youth and speed advantages of the favorite. Kris Moutinho by Decision

Dalcha Lungiambula -130 vs Cody Brundage +100

Anthony: This is a very close matchup at middleweight between Dalcha Lungiambula and Cody Brundage. Neither one of these fighters seem too talented but Lungiambula has certainly had the better UFC run thus far. He has a decision win over Markus Perez and a third-round finish of Dequan Townsend on his resume. He will likely be striking aggressively here in hopes of finding a finish early. I believe he will have the strength to push around Brundage and we will see very little return activity with him defending on the back foot. The Judo acumen of Lungiambula should give him a good chance at sweeping any takedown attempts or at least keeping Brundage off of him. It really is a fight that could go either way but I am expecting Lungiambula to get his hand raised. I think Brundage fails to land big and get his opponent’s respect. Dalcha Lungiambula by Decision
Nick: Lungiambula is another fighter that comes in with questions surrounding his cardio. He looked fine at weigh-ins for this fight, but if he can’t end things early there’s a good chance he starts to fall apart in the later rounds. He’s a monster in terms of his physical frame, but his excessive muscle makes it difficult to stay fresh as the fight wears on. Lungiambula has enough power and explosiveness to take almost anyone out via KO. He has a solid Judo base, but he seems rigid in the cage and can sometimes be sluggish in exchanges. Brundage has a powerful wrestling base and he does a good job pouring damage on his opponents if he can find himself in top position. He’s going to have a technical wrestling advantage here, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep Lungiambula down long enough to stay safe. This is a low confidence pick as both of these fighters have glaring holes in their abilities. However, Lungiambula seems more dangerous at this point in their respective careers. I’m concerned about his cardio, but he Lungiambula enough explosiveness and power to potentially end this fight early. I’m also encouraged by the fact that Lungiambula recently moved to an excellent camp in Sanford MMA. This one could go either way, but I’ll side with the favorite. Dalcha Lungiambula by Round One KO

Miranda Maverick -330 vs Sabina Mazo +255

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight bout between Sabina Mazo and Miranda Maverick. These are promising young prospects in the division that unfortunately both lost their previous two matchups. It seems apparent Maverick will dictate where this fight takes place. She is a high-pressure fighter that pairs wrestling very well with her high-volume striking attack. Crowding the much taller will play to the benefit of Maverick and I think she has no problem outmuscling Mazo against the cage and when things hit the mat. The southpaw striking will be a lot for Mazo to try and defend and I am not going to side with her until I see her win another fight. Her best chance at winning here would be by point fighting from kickboxing range. I do not think Maverick gives Mazo much space to work and I think it makes sense that she is such a sizeable favorite. I feel like this is a matchup where Maverick will excel and get back into the win column. Miranda Maverick by Decision
Nick: Maverick is a name that’s been building some hype for a while. She’s mostly known for her extremely high-fight IQ and very well-rounded overall game. She’s big for this division, with very powerful hips and more than enough grappling ability to avoid most compromising positions. Maverick continues to show improvement in her striking, but she’s still clearly developing that aspect of her game. Mazo is likely fighting for her job here, coming off back-to-back ugly losses to Mariya Agapova and Alexis Davis. She has decent boxing ability offensively, but she eats a lot of strikes in exchanges and her durability seems to fade as her fights wear on. While both of these girls are young and improving, we’ve simply seen more from Maverick. While both fighters have been tested, she’s been tested more extensively against a higher level of competition. The main reason to back her here is that she’s likely going to have a massive advantage in both her wrestling ability and overall strength over Mazo. I expect her to hang with Mazo on the feet, but ultimately take this fight to the ground where she should dominate as the favorite. I’m fairly confident in Maverick here, I see her as a solid parlay piece and I expect I back her to win inside the distance for plus money. Miranda Maverick by Round Two Submission

Kamuela Kirk -115 vs Damon Jackson -115

Anthony: This is a featherweight matchup between Kamuela Kirk and Damon Jackson. These are two well-rounded fighters but on paper we have a striker versus grappler matchup here. 14 of Jackson’s 19 wins have come by way of submission and he is often chasing takedowns in fights. He averages nearly three submission attempts per fifteen minutes. Kirk is a high-volume striker for the most part but we have also seen him very willing to engage on the mat. I could see Kirk getting himself into trouble playing games scrambling with Jackson in this bout. He has good offensive grappling but I do not think that is where he will find success today. Both men are dangerous everywhere, but the strength and technical grappling ability surely lies with Jackson. I am not very confident in this pick but I will bet Jackson at the current odds. He certainly seems to have a few paths to victory, and I see him largely controlling Kirk on the mat today. Damon Jackson by Decision
Nick: We have a potentially fun match-up here between two well-rounded but lower-level featherweights. Damon Jackson finds most of his success on the ground, with seven of his last nine wins coming via submission. Kirk pushes a serious pace which he uses to keep pressure on his opponents. He throws a wide range of powerful strikes, does a good job mixing in body shots, and his grappling seems to be fairly advanced for a 27-year-old. He’s coming off a massive win as a +165 over Makwan Amirkhani. His cardio has been a bit of an issue in past matchups, but as a young and developing fighter it can be expected to improve. Jackson will have an experience advantage here, but I see Kirk as the more technically sound and dangerous striker. Jackson is dangerous on the mat, but Kirk has never been Submitted before. This is certainly a close match-up as is evident by the line here, but I’m siding with the athletic advantages of a continually improving fighter in Kirk. Kamuela Kirk by Decision

Javid Basharat -145 vs Trevin Jones +115

Anthony: I am very excited for this bantamweight scrap between Javid Basharat and Trevin Jones. This is the UFC debut for Basharat who is coming off an impressive win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Basharat was able to finish undefeated Oron Kahlon in a fight where he displayed phenomenal grappling and top pressure. Basharat is a punishing striker in this division too and I am excited to see how he progresses as the competition becomes more difficult. Jones poses a very tough stylistic matchup for Basharat given his jiu jitsu blackbelt. Elite grappling is what got Jones into the UFC but he also proved to have knockout power in his first two promotional bouts. Basharat should lead the dance here but Jones is dangerous no matter where this fight gets contested. On the feet Jones is live to land a big shot and on the mat I worry about Basharat perhaps getting caught in a submission. However, he seems the more polished martial artist and I see him being able to use his strength to subdue Jones here. I see him especially finding success in the match’s latter half. Javid Basharat by Decision
Nick: Javid Basharat will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over an undefeated Oron Kahlon. He showed a well-rounded game in that match-up. He won all of the grappling scrambles and he showed a measured and effective approach to striking both offensively and defensively. Trevin Jones is extremely athletic and one of the more powerful strikers at Bantamweight. He does a good job mixing in kicks into his combinations, and he’s been surprisingly impressive and effective since he’s made his debut. He’s coming off a tough loss to Saidyoukub Kakhramonov by submission. He looked great early in that fight, but his cardio started to fade early in the second round. Jones is certainly gifted with athletic ability, but he has a questionable Fight IQ and he seems to chase big shots which can make it easy for his opponents to avoid them. Jones is going to be dangerous here, he’s very live for an early knckout. That being said, I’m backing the more well-rounded and technically sound favorite in this spot. Jones may have an experience advantage here, but I see Basharat as the much more promising prospect. He already shows a better understanding of footwork when you watch him on film, and his grappling advantage here seems significant. I won’t invest heavily here knowing how dangerous Jones can be, but Basharat is the pick. He has more ways to win here. Javid Basharat by Decision

Gillian Robertson -125 vs JJ Aldrich -105

Anthony: Here we have a fight at women’s flyweight with JJ Aldrich taking on Gillian Robertson. This is a short notice bout for Robertson who steps in for Ariane Lipski. While Robertson is talented, cardio has always been an issue for her and I am concerned with her gas tank appearing without a full training camp here. Aldrich has a very well-rounded skill set and I think she can certainly score well against Robertson with momentum on her side. Perhaps looking to grapple is her best path to victory as Robertson is usually willing to fight off of her back. Robertson will probably be chasing takedowns of her own and for that reason I really do not want any money on this volatile matchup. No outcome would surprise me but I think Aldrich does enough to get her hand raised here. JJ Aldrich by Decision
Nick: We have an interesting match-up here between a striker and a grappler. Gillian Robertson is outstanding on the mat, with seven of her ten professional wins coming via submission. JJ Aldrich is a striker with solid boxing fundamentals. She lands more than four significant strikes per minute and carries a solid 61% striking defense. Robertson is one of the more impressive young grapplers in this division and her BJJ is much more dangerous than any of Aldrich’s recent opponents Aldrich has a 61% takedown defense, but Robertson can be relentless in her approach. The key to this match-up will be whether or not Robertson can score takedowns. Two of Aldrich’s five professional losses have come by way of submission. This is another low confidence pick, but I like Robertson to score the takedowns she needs here to eventually find that submission. They may not come easy, but I do think they will come. Gillian Robertson by Round Two Submission

Matthew Semelsberger -200 vs AJ Fletcher +160

Anthony: The featured prelim is a bout at welterweight between Matthew Semelsberger and AJ Fletcher. These two are rather similar in their fighting styles and aggressive approach. Both were former collegiate football hopefuls that had spots on the UFC roster. Semelsberger has shined brighter than anyone would’ve thought initially, now 3-1 since joining the promotion. His wins have been impressive and the only loss came in a close bout with Khaos Williams. He has a big size advantage here as he faces the debuting Fletcher. The undefeated fighter gives up three inches in height and a whopping eight inches reach to his opponent. I see Semelsberger tagging Fletcher early and often on the feet as he is the much more refined striker. Fletcher has beaten a rather weak group of opponents and I do not think he is ready to debut against a fighter who has looked as good as Semelsberger. The odds are a bit wide but I see him getting a win inside of the distance. Matthew Semelsberger by Round Two KO
Nick: Matthew Semelsberger is a powerful puncher who wins most of his fights via early KO. He’s 3-1 so far in the UFC, with his one loss coming in a hard-fought decision to a highly-regarded prospect in Khaos WIlliams. He throws quick and powerful combinations with true flash KO power. He does a good job using an aggressive style to force his opponents to retreat and while there are certainly holes in his game, his impressive power gives him a shot against almost anyone in this division. AJ Fletcher will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a highlight reel flying knee KO victory over Leonardo Damiani on Dana White’s Contender Series back in August. He has a solid wrestling base and explosive power striking out of breaks. He’s been impressive so far professionally at an undefeated 9-0, but this represents a considerable step up in competition for him. Semelsberger will have a considerable reach advantage in this spot. He has impressive footwork and he does a better job switching stances than most fighters at this level of experience. Fletcher certainly carries power so I’m not sure I agree with the line here, but I do agree Semelsberger should secure the win in this one. Matthew Semelsberger by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Alex Pereira -200 vs Bruno Silva +160

Anthony: The main card opens with an incredible fight at middleweight between Alex Pereira and Bruno Silva. This is a matchup between two high level strikers that you absolutely do not want to miss. Pereira is a Glory kickboxing champion who looked exceptional in his UFC debut. Pereira was able to floor Andreas Michailidis with a flying knee early in the second round. The first round of that fight showcased Pereira’s grappling as he defended takedowns from his pressuring opponent. Pereira is training with light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira and is surely rounding out his skillset as a primary striker. He has a massive frame for this division and a true death touch, especially with his left hook. Silva would seem to be an attractive underdog play given his three impressive UFC finishes, but the level of competition has not been all that great. We also saw Silva getting hit hard early against Jordan Wright before eventually landing the punch that finished him. I see him being at a severe disadvantage while striking and while Silva is a very talented grappler, Pereira has already shown me enough to feel confident in his takedown defense. He is going to be a problem in this division until he meets a true middleweight that can control him on the mat. I do not believe Silva to be that guy. Alex Pereira by Round One KO
Nick: Alex Pereira is a world champion kickboxer. He carries KO power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on the feet, has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a major hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixeira so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with nineteen of his twenty-two professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges. Silva will be live for the upset if he can lean on his grappling here, but I’m not confident he’ll even try to. Silva has become very used to outclassing opponents on the feet and knocking them out, but he really hasn’t touched anyone near the level of Pereira in terms of striking. I don’t want to overinvest here as Silva does have a clear path to victory if he can score takedowns and work on the mat. However, I see Pereira as too dangerous and explosive. I expect he’ll catch Silva with a counter early or on an entry for a takedown attempt. Alex Pereira by Round One KO

Drew Dober -165 vs Terrance McKinney +135

Anthony: Next is a matchup at lightweight between Terrance McKinney and Drew Dober. McKinney is just two weeks removed from a massive win at UFC Vegas 49, choking out Fares Ziam in the first round. He is now 2-0 in the UFC and his previous five victories have come in under one round of total cage time. I really like the aggressive nature of McKinney, always pushing the action and looking to hurt his opponents early. Not only does McKinney crack with tremendous power, but his grappling is also an extremely high level as evidenced in his last bout. Dober has showcased some good wrestling as well but is often beaten thoroughly by guys that can take him down first. It is likely that Dober plans on standing and striking in this matchup so I am sure McKinney can get the jump on a takedown if he elects to. With his long frame and serious power though, I expect McKinney to strike aggressively from the opening horn. Getting him as an underdog feels silly after the stellar performances he has strung together. I love his intent to finish fights and will be loading up on him as one of my favorite bets. He should be in excellent shape coming off a full training camp and a fight where he took no damage. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO
Nick: This is a Fight of the Night candidate and easily one of the more intriguing fights we have on this card. Drew Dober has improved dramatically over his last few fights. He throws extremely powerful and precise strikes, his timing seems better than ever and the power in his counters make him a threat against almost anyone on the feet. McKinney has won four of his last five fights via first round KO. McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as was evident in his recent submission win over Fares Ziam. McKinney has looked outstanding so far in the UFC, but this is a dramatic step up in competition for him here. He’s taking this fight on short notice so it will be difficult for him to gameplan and outside of an early finish I expect Dober’s experience to shine through as this fight wears on. There’s no denying McKinney could either score an early KO or lean on his grappling to keep things close, but Dober is simply too much too soon for McKinney in my opinion. On a full camp I’d give him a shot here, but on just two weeks’ notice I have to back the favorite. Drew Dober by Decision

Karl Roberson -130 vs Khalil Rountree +100

Anthony: This bout is at light heavyweight fight between Khalil Rountree and Karl Roberson. Both fighters have significant grappling deficiencies and for that reason we see likely this whole match contested on the feet. Rountree is a Muay Thai fighter that largely weaponizes his leg kicks and heavy hands. He was rewarded with a win in his last fight against Modestas Bukauskas by side kick. The switch back to Syndicate MMA appears to have Rountree much better prepared entering his fights as of late. Roberson is a kickboxer who will be content to trade with Rountree. I worry about Roberson’s durability in this fight given the several first round finishes he has already suffered. He is also fighting out of his weight class here with a frame far better suited for the middleweight division. The last time we saw Roberson in a light heavyweight fight he was quickly submitted by Glover Teixeira. Neither one of these fighters are all that special but Rountree should certainly be favored in my opinion. It is hard to avoid betting on him here at the current odds. Khalil Rountree by One KO
Nick: Karl Roberson could be fighting for his job here, as he’s dropped each of his last two UFC matchups. He fell to tough competition in Marvin Vettori and Brendan Allen, but he was at a major disadvantage stylistically as both Vettori and Allen are outstanding grapplers. Robertson is a talented kickboxer who does an excellent job striking at range. He throws powerful kicks out of both stances, he’s very athletic and he’s shown he can put on a pace that is difficult for his opponents to match. He struggles in the grappling department, but he’s in a more favorable match-up here against another striker in Rountree. Rountree is a talented Muay-Thai striker with extremely powerful kicks. He works excellent in the clinch, but he’s sometimes overly conservative as he waits for fights to come to him. Rountree is a frustrating fighter to back as he’s usually very volatile. He can look like a complete world beater on any given night, but on occasion he seems like he has zero interest in fighting. If Rountree is in peak form here, he should outclass Roberson. Roberson is very athletic, but Rountree can close that speed gap with powerful combinations. I also expect Rountree to have a power advantage here. This is a low confidence pick as we never really know which Rountree will show up, but I’m going to give him the nod here. On his best night he outclasses Roberson, we just have to hope he comes into this fight in excellent form. Khalil Rountree by Round Three KO

Sodiq Yusuff -255 vs Alex Caceres +200

Anthony: The featured bout is a featherweight fight between Sodiq Yusuff and the streaking Alex Caceres. Yusuff is an exciting prospect that ended up on the wrong side of a decision his last time out. That was his first big step up in competition but there is no shame in losing to a guy as tough as Arnold Allen. Yusuff will look to employ his pressure in this fight, moving forward often and putting together combinations on Caceres. I really like his power and ability to dig to the body of opponents. He will certainly be the more effective striker, but Caceres does well poking opponents at range and landing volume of his own. Bruce Leeroy has found a way to get the victory in five straight fights. His best work is done through the offensive grappling as he is always looking to take the back. Caceres is not much of a wrestling threat in the traditional sense, but he becomes hard to deal with when able to grab a hold of his foes. With little proof that Yusuff can handle that grappling pressure, I certainly will not be betting him as a heavy favorite today. My money will be going on Caceres here as I look to ride this current winning streak. He has quite a few paths to victory and I am not quite ready to buy the hype of his opponent. Alex Caceres by Round Two Submission
Nick: Sodiq Yusuff has outstanding striking. He’s well rounded, but he’s most comfortable fighting on the feet as six of his eleven professional wins have come by knockout. He has outstanding power for this division, he is excellent in the clinch as he’s highly developed in his striking abilities. He’s shown improvements in his ground game, but he’s going to do all he can to keep this fight on the feet. Alex Caceres is on a five-fight win streak with two of his last three wins coming via submission. He doesn’t have much of a wrestling base and he struggles to get fights to the mat, but he takes advantage of his opponents’ mistakes and becomes extremely dangerous if he can find an opening to take their back. Caceres is a highly technical striker that does an excellent job managing distance. He doesn’t carry much power, but he does a good job landing from unconventional angles. While his striking is solid, Caceres would be wise to lean on an offensive grappling advantage here. He doesn’t really carry enough power to keep Yusuff off him for fifteen minutes and in terms of volume he’d likely have trouble keeping up on the scorecards. The line feels too wide here considering Caceres’ dangerous BJJ. Still, Yusuff is the pick. Sodiq Yusuff by Decision

Song Yadong -265 vs Marlon Moraes +205

Anthony: The co-main event is a bout contested at bantamweight between Marlon Moraes and Song Yadong. In his last fight, Moraes nearly pulled off the upset of Merab Dvalishvili as a +225 underdog. We saw him have Dvalishvili badly hurt but Moraes found himself unable to put away the Georgian fighter in the first round. Moraes was then finished for the fourth time in his previous five fights. The former title challenger has seriously fallen off and I worry a lot about his durability in this fight. It is a difficult stylistic matchup against a power puncher like Yadong. His right hand has sat down opponents on more than one occasion and the striking is very polished for a 24-year-old. I love the professional experience he has already accrued and believe Yadong to be a staple in the rankings for years to come. He will have a significant advantage on the feet given his speed and the volume he tends to throw. I do not see Moraes responding well to the striking pressure and fear he does not have many paths to victory here. While Moraes is certainly capable of edging out a close decision, there is no way I can trust him to survive a full three rounds. One of these fighters is getting cracked in an early exchange. Song Yadong by Round Two KO
Nick: Song Yadong has serious power with seven of his eighteen professional wins coming by way of knockout. He’s an effective striker that does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow the momentum of his opponents. Primarily a striker, we have seen Yadong continue to improve on his grappling ability. These improvements are likely a result of the fact he’s been training out of Team Alpha Male (a camp loaded with talented wrestlers). He’s coming off a solid win over Julio Arce, but this match-up with Moraes represents a considerable step up in competition for him here. Marlon Moraes is likely fighting for his job here, having dropped each of his last three matchups. Moraes is an outstanding kickboxer who was as dangerous as anyone in the world in his prime at 135, but he’s been KO’d in each of his last three losses and his durability seems a far-cry from what it was a few years ago. Moraes looked excellent early his last time out against Merab Dvalishvili. He nearly finished him in the first round, but he blew through his gas tank and Merab ultimately took over and then finished Moraes as he faded. This should be an extremely competitive fight and Moraes has a good chance to pull off the upset via early KO. However, Yadong has the much better cardio in this match-up and he’s shown an excellent chin. The line is too wide here, but I’ll side with the favorite. Moraes is dangerous but I just can’t trust his chin at this point in his career. If you have the opportunity to live bet, I’d prefer to back Yadong at a better number if he loses the first round. Song Yadong by Round Two KO

Magomed Ankalaev -575 vs Thiago Santos +400

Anthony: The main event is a light heavyweight fight between Magomed Ankalaev and Thiago Santos. It is very clear that Ankalaev will one day compete for the championship in this division. He has displayed exceptional footwork, a wide arsenal of kicks and one of the fastest left hands in the UFC. Ankalaev is a phenomenal striker. He is also able to string together combinations with the fluidity of a middleweight. Ankalaev lands strikes at a 55 percent clip and absorbs very little damage from opponents. Santos is only going to be live by knockout in this fight as I see him being outclassed by Ankalaev in every position. We have seen Ankalaev implement grappling to great effect when he has elected to do so. He could likely make easy work of Santos on the mat here, but I see him keeping this fight at kickboxing range to conserve energy. The odds have swelled to wider than they usually do for Anakalaev but I believe them to be justifiable. He has been nothing but dominant thus far in the UFC and is my most confident pick on tonight’s card. He should walk away with a finish here today if these two end up primarily striking. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Three KO

Nick: Magomed Ankalaev has ridiculously powerful head kicks as an extremely diverse striker with intelligent footwork. He’s well versed in terms of grappling, but his powerful and precise striking is what has many touting him as a future top contender at light heavyweight. He throws meaningful strikes and does a good job staying out of range against a variety of opponents. He’s coming off seven consecutive wins under the UFC banner, and he’ll look to build on that momentum here against a dangerous opponent in Thiago Santos. Santos has faced an extremely high level of competition, but his career does seem to be on a bit of a downturn. He has the type of power that always gives him a chance against anyone. Still, Ankalaev should be able to get it done in this spot. He’s the more well-rounded fighter and he seems to improve every time we see him in the cage. As long as he stays out of danger early in striking exchanges, this feels like his fight to lose. I expect Ankaleav to mostly dominate on the feet, but if he doesn’t he has a clear wrestling advantage here. Santos has a puncher’s chance, but Ankalaev has seemingly countless paths to victory. I feel Santos just hasn’t been the same since he tore both his ACLs against Jon Jones. He’s still a true top-ten fighter at 205 pounds, but Ankalaev may be the best in the world. The line has gotten a bit out of hand, but Ankalaev will be an anchor to many of my parlays this week. I expect he’ll pick Santos apart until he finds a late finish. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_