UFC London Preview

UFC London: Volkov vs Aspinall – 3.19.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC London: Volkov vs Aspinall. The world leader in mixed martial arts has returned to the O2 Arena for a stacked fight card! A handful of European stars will fight in what should be one of the more exciting free events all year. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 63-35-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 67-31-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 3-18-2022 at 3pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 1:30pm EST

Muhammad Mokaev -410 vs Cody Durden +310

Anthony: The card opens today with a bout at flyweight between Muhammad Mokaev and Cody Durden. This is the debut fight for Mokaev who enters the UFC at a very green 5-0. He is a long and dangerous flyweight with extremely high-level grappling that he has been honing his entire life. I really like his submission ability on the mat and general skills at such a young age, but do fear that this is going to be a tough run in the promotion for him. Durden is not a very threatening opponent but Mokaev will need to be very careful not to overexert himself in this spot. He will likely be content to stand and strike with Durden who is a bit awkward on the feet. These are two athletes that like to do most of their work on the mat but it would not surprise me to see Durden actually winning grappling exchanges in this bout. He will need to make things ugly in order to get his hand raised but I think a back and forth fifteen minutes will likely be what we get here. Mokaev is strong but I don’t think his high-pressure wrestling will work to much effect in such a light weight class. Durden will be my pick largely because the odds have gotten out of hand. Mokaev probably wins this fight, but I am not going to back a prospect in his debut that I believe to be seriously overhyped. Cody Durden by Decision
Nick: Muhammad Mokaev will be making his UFC debut here at just 21-years of age. He’s a highly regarded flyweight prospect born in Dagestan but living and training out of Great Britain for most of his life. He began fighting as an amateur at just 15-years old, amassing an impressive 20-0 record. Cody Durden is a well-rounded and gritty fighter who finds most of his success using his wrestling to keep pressure on his opponents. He’s more than competent on the feet, but there’s nothing about his skillset that suggests he’s going to continue to climb the ranks at 135 pounds. He already seems to be the more talented fighter in this matchup. He’ll have a considerable cardio advantage here so as long as he doesn’t get caught early he should start to take over as this fight wears on. The price on a 21-year-old debutant is a cause of some concern, but I still see Mokaev as the clear pick. Muhammad Mokaev by Round Two Submission

Cory McKenna -270 vs Elise Reed +210

Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s strawweight between Cory McKenna and Elise Reed. McKenna is the clear pick to win this fight but the line remains tighter than it should be. This is due to the volatility of female matchups. Reed only made it into the UFC as a short notice replacement to face Sijara Eubanks. She is really not deserving of this roster spot but the UFC always gives a second chance to fighters that show up for them in a pinch. We saw Eubanks have no problem taking Reed to the mat in that bout and I expect a similar style of fight here today. McKenna has proven to be most comfortable in bouts when her opponents are on their back. She will have little to no resistance getting Reed down and controlling her for the duration of this fight today. It is clear the plan was to feed Reed to the Welsh fighter in front of a supportive crowd. Cory McKenna by Decision
Nick: Elise Reed has decent footwork and her boxing is refined. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. Reed is a tough and gritty military veteran, but she visibly struggled on the mat against far worse grapplers than McKenna. We saw in her last fight, a loss to Sijara Eubanks, that she is fairly easy to take down. McKenna has a very strong wrestling base and does a good job finding submissions against inferior grapplers. She is still a bit early in her career development, but she’s already very strong for the division and capable of scoring takedowns from a variety of positions. McKenna is going to have the home crowd behind her here and a considerable grappling advantage here. As long as she doesn’t spend too much time on her feet, I expect her to cruise to victory. Cory McKenna by Decision

Timur Valiev -115 vs Jack Shore -115

Anthony: This is an excellent matchup between bantamweights Timur Valiev and the undefeated Jack Shore. These are two very high-level fighters that have ceilings inside the division’s top ten. I am expecting the crowd to be supportive of the Welsh fighter and Cage Warriors alumnus here. He has looked great thus far under the UFC banner although the competition has been less than stellar. A lot of the big-name matchups for Shore have fallen through such as his scheduled bout with Umar Nurmagomedov. Valiev will be his toughest test to date. Keeping up with the speed and footwork of Valiev while striking will be a tall task. The game plan for Shore should largely be focused on securing takedowns and position as always. I think Valiev proves to be slippery on the mat, but not defensively sound enough to stuff consecutive takedown attempts. These odds are near par for very good reason but I do believe Shore has the slight advantage here. I do not think we see him get finished and expect the European judges to give him the edge in any close rounds. Jack Shore by Decision
Nick: We have an excellent match-up here between two of the brighter prospects at 135 pounds. Valiev is a gifted striker with advanced technical ability. He has a diverse arsenal of kicks which he mixes in with his boxing to keep his opponents on their heels. He has an effective grappling base as well, which he uses to tire and frustrate his opponents. He comes into this match-up at an impressive 18-2. Jack Shore is primarily a grappler and he comes into this match-up at an undefeated 15-0. Shore seems to be one of the prospects the UFC is looking to build. They have been highlighting him in their promotion for this card as he’s currently one of the brighter Welsh prospects in the world. He is a powerful grappler with an excellent gas tank. Shore is content to stand and trade, but his chain wrestling is what has led him to most of his wins professionally. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call as both combatants bring a very high level of ability. I expect Valiev to have a striking advantage, but Shore has shown the better durability of the two. Additionally, Valiev comes into this match-up with an ugly 50 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Shore is very dangerous once he’s on top so regardless of whether or not he’s winning exchanges on the feet, I see him leaning on his wrestling here to keep Valiev down for the better part of fifteen minutes. Jack Shore by Decision

Nikita Krylov -190 vs Paul Craig +155

Anthony: Next we have a fight at light heavyweight between Nikita Krylov and Paul Craig. Despite going unbeaten in his last five fights, nobody is rushing to the window to bet on Craig. He is the underdog despite three straight wins by finish. The time spent fighting off his back is a concern but Craig is a specialist, hunting for the submission win in each of his bouts. Krylov is an intriguing matchup as he holds the striking advantage, but he is also highly experienced on the mat. His losses have come against the very best fighters in this division. Krylov will likely be willing to engage in a few scrambles with Craig on the mat though this is not very wise. Krylov would cruise in this fight if able to maintain his distance but I see an aggressive Craig getting in his face early. With five of Krylov’s eight losses coming by submission, the path to victory for Craig is clear. He is a strong light heavyweight and clearly the value side of this matchup at the current odds. Paul Craig by Round One Submission
Nick: We have an intriguing matchup here between two of the more underrated light heavyweights on the roster. Nikita Krylov is more than willing to eat shots to throw them. He’s a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks. He’s also an aggressive offensive grappler with fifteen of his twenty-seven professional wins coming by way of submission. Paul Craig is another one of these guys who is usually aggressive early. He starts to fade when he can’t find an early finish, but he’s usually very dangerous for as long as his cardio holds up. Craig has outstanding BJJ, with twelve of his fifteen professional wins coming by submission. He will have the advantage over Krylov there. In Krylov’s second round against Johnny Walker, a mediocre grappler, he put himself in a lot of dangerous spots. If he makes those same mistakes here against Craig I expect he’ll be on the wrong side of a finish. Krylov will certainly be the better striker here, but I’m not confident in him keeping this fight standing for fifteen minutes. If this goes to decision Krylov should get it done, but I like the value of Craig here. He really only needs Krylov to make one mistake to find that opportunistic submission. Paul Craig by Round Two Submission

Sergei Pavlovich -300 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov +240

Anthony: This fight will be contested at heavyweight between Shamil Abdurakhimov and Sergei Pavlovich. I predict we see a very lopsided fight here. Abdurakhimov is a sambo specialist with very good takedowns in MMA. He will be looking to get this fight to the mat as soon as possible while Pavlovich plans to stand and strike. Already 40 years old, the signs of a declining fighter have been abundantly clear for Abdurakhimov. He looked slow and very hittable in a matchup with Chris Daukaus last summer that saw him knocked down two times. Pavlovich has porous takedown defense so I consider Abdurakhimov live here, but things probably will not go his way on his feet. Pavlovich is a very dangerous southpaw striker that should have enough power to stun Abdurakhimov early. Having been off since 2019 there are certainly questions surrounding how he will perform. I think the ceiling could still be high for Pavlovich moving forward as his only career loss came against Alistair Overeem on short notice. He should get his hand raised in this bout but I do not recommend betting him at odds this wide. It is a very volatile matchup. Sergei Pavlovich by Round One KO
Nick: Abdurakhimov is primarily a wrestler. He’s a very strong grappler with powerful hips. He shows solid cardio for a heavy weight but there are questions surrounding his form as he’s coming off an ugly loss to Chris Daukaus by knockout. He was once a very tough out to his well-rounded skill set, but he’s seemingly in the twilight of his career. Sergei Pavlovich is a highly regarded heavyweight prospect but we haven’t seen him in competition since 2019. Pavlovich has an extremely powerful left hand. He does a good job setting it up behind his jab and he’s very quick and explosive for a heavyweight. Abdurakhimov has a path to victory if he can lean on his grappling to slow things down and make this ugly. However, I’m not confident in his ability to do so as he no longer seems to have the cardio to lean on that style of game plan. The line has gotten a bit too wide on this one, but I expect Pavlovich to rush in here and find that early KO. This is not one of my more confident picks on the card, but I see youth and athleticism as deciding factors in this matchup. Sergei Pavlovich by Round One KO

Mike Grundy -190 vs Makwan Amirkhani +155

Anthony: The featured prelim will be a fight between Mike Grundy and Makwan Amirkhani at featherweight. Both of these fighters are primarily known for their grappling ability, with both looking to wrestle early and often in their UFC bouts. Amirkhani averages four takedowns per fight while Grundy is just shy of that average. The more well-rounded athlete is Grundy who has knockout power and better technical striking. The time spent training with Darren Till and card headliner Tom Aspinall has certainly helped him develop hand speed and better combinations. While both guys will be looking to get this fight to the mat I like the fact that Grundy will be scoring favor with the judges while standing too. Amirkhani has also historically had issues with bouts that escape round one. He tends to overexert himself and tire given his aggressive fighting style. I see Grundy cruising to a victory here unless he gets caught in an early submission. I do not plan to bet him at odds this wide but think he has the clear advantage over Amirkhani. If cardio becomes an issue and these two elect to stand, Grundy should pick him apart. Mike Grundy by Decision
Nick: Mike Grundy has a powerful wrestling base and is one of the more accomplished grapplers in this division. He’s coming off a tough decision loss to a tough out in Lando Vannata, but he’s very well-rounded and has shown finishing ability against a wide range of opponents. Makwan Amirkhani’s greatest strength is his outstanding BJJ as a majority of his victories come by way of submission. He is coming off three consecutive losses for the first time in his career and he could be cut from the promotion with another defeat today. Amirikhani’s cardio is always a bit of a question mark. He usually looks excellent early in fights, but if he can’t take his opponents out he starts to fade as his fights wear on. Most of his wins come by out grappling his opponents but I actually feel Grundy is the better wrestler in this fight. I expect Amirkhani to look good early here but as his cardio starts to fade Grundy should take over. Mike Grundy by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Ilia Topuria -550 vs Jai Herbert +380

Anthony: The main card opens with a fight at lightweight between Ilia Topuria and Jai Herbert. Topuria remains undefeated after a successful three bouts in the UFC. His most recent outing was a matchup with Ryan Hall that he won by knockout. Topuria displayed excellent grappling and Fight IQ in that bout and was rewarded with yet another win. He is jumping in on short notice here to replace Herbert’s original opponent Mike Davis. While Topuria is normally a 145 pounder he is fighting up weight. I see him being just as efficient on the feet at lightweight, and even better than usual on the mat. Herbert is a talented striker but I see him getting folded up quickly if Topuria does elect to take him down. None of the victories that Herbert has accrued are all that impressive to me and I think Topuria is going to be too much too soon. A bout with Mike Davis could have been competitive, but Topuria is just levels ahead of Herbert at this stage of their careers. Not only is he less technically sound than Topuria, but we have also seen Herbert finished on numerous occasions. Topuria will be improving to 12-0 in this one. Ilia Topuria by Round One KO
Nick: Topuria comes into this fight with a lot of momentum. He is an aggressive striker who packs a lot of power in his punches. He throws extremely fast combinations and his overall explosiveness has many calling him a future top contender. As good of a striker as he is, Topuria is a blackbelt with seven of his nine wins coming via submission. His wrestling is excellent, and it also presents the clearest path for victory for him in this particular match-up. Herbert is a former Cage Warriors Champion with decent BJJ, but his most recent wins have come on the feet. He is best in the clinch with a strong Muay-Thai base, but he’s fairly competent no matter where a fight takes him. I’d give him a puncher’s chance in this spot as he likely has a bit of a power advantage over Topuria when this fight is taking place on the feet. However, Topuria’s advantages in grappling are far greater than Herbert’s in striking. The line has gotten a bit out of hand, but Topuria is the pick. I expect he weathers an early rush from Herbert then grinds him out for a finish on the mat. Ilia Topuria by Round Two Submission

Molly McCann -140 vs Luana Carolina +110

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight bout between Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. Both fighters are solid on the feet, but Carolina should have a slight advantage while standing. She is the longer and rangier athlete who is far more accustomed to throwing hands in her career thus far. McCann is also always game for a brawl but her skill set has the added benefit of solid offensive grappling. She has a clear path to victory in this fight if successful bringing Carolina to the mat. We saw Carolina successfully defend 13 of 15 takedowns in her last fight with Lupita Godinez but take that with a grain of salt as Godinez is truly a 115-pounder. McCann is a physically stronger opponent and I do not see Carolina keeping this fight on the feet for a full fifteen minutes. It is a very intriguing matchup but I love the value of McCann here as the line continues to float at near even odds. Molly McCann by Decision
Nick: Molly McCann does a good job working behind her jab. She has trouble against superior grapplers, but her wrestling is a clear advantage in this matchup. McCann averages more than two takedowns per fight. She tends to lean on her wrestling against inferior grapplers and Luana Carolina certainly fits that mold. Carolina does her best work striking at range. She’s going to have a considerable reach advantage here, but she doesn’t really carry the type of power it would take to keep McCann from closing distance. The key to this matchup will likely be Carolina’s ability to keep this fight standing. She has decent takedown defense, but McCann is effective enough on the feet that she should be able to set up timely shots. I’m also liking that this crowd will be in heavy support of the favorite. Molly McCann by Decision

Gunnar Nelson -500 vs Takashi Sato +370

Anthony: This is a welterweight bout between Gunnar Nelson and Takashi Sato. It has been more than two years since Nelson last fought in the UFC but his hiatus now ends here in his neck of the woods. The fighter from Iceland is very fun to watch with his fluid karate stance and constant movement. He is not really that big for 170 pounds, but neither is his opponent here. Sato took this fight on rather short notice and I’m not entirely sure of his path to victory here. Perhaps he can crack the chin of Nelson at some point but durability has never really been an issue for Gunni. I expect Nelson to make Sato miss a lot while they are standing and to completely outclass him if they do end up on the mat. At these odds, I will not be touching this fight though. Ring rust is a major concern for me here as Nelson could take a while to find his timing again. Sato will make him work early and for that reason I am staying away. I very much look forward to seeing Nelson back in action. Gunnar Nelson by Round Two Submission
Nick: Gunnar Nelson is an extremely talented grappler who has been in close fights with many of the big names at 170. He fights out of an open karate style stance when he’s striking at range, he has solid entries for takedowns and he’s likely to outclass no matter where this fight goes. He has notable wins over Alan Jouban and Alex Oliviera, but we haven’t seen him in action since 2019. Sato is a judo blackbelt, but most of his success has come on the feet. He has sneaky power in his strikes but often telegraphs his shots and his overall takedown defense is mediocre at best. This feels like a tune-up fight for Nelson against a mediocre grappler in Sato. Nelson will be in many of my parlays. Gunnar Nelson by Round One Submission

Paddy Pimblett -570 vs Kazula Vargas +395

Anthony: Our featured bout is a matchup at lightweight between Kazula Vargas and the scouser Paddy Pimblett. The UFC has identified Paddy the Baddy as a future star and this matchup seems handpicked to help grow the hype surrounding him. He’s an eccentric character with a high action style inside of the cage. While his opponent Vargas is tough, he seems to be declining quickly at the age of 36. He is a threat on the feet given the power he carries but offers little to no resistance in terms of his grappling. Vargas has been finished by chokes before and the best path to victory for Pimblett will be finding that takedown early. With a raucous home crowd cheering him on I’m a bit nervous about Pimblett standing and striking here. However, he has proven to have real knockout power and Vargas is not a threatening opponent when he is on the back foot. I do see this fight eventually getting dragged to the mat and Pimblett finding the early finish. He is a massive favorite and I think a bet inside of the distance provides much better value than a straight slip at these odds. Paddy Pimblett by Round One Submission
Nick: Coming off a knockout win in his UFC debut, Pimblett is a former Cage Warriors Lightweight Champion. He turned down offers from the UFC twice earlier in his development, but he finally feels ready to compete at the very top level. Pimblett is primarily a grappler, and his greatest advantage is his highly aggressive style. He hunts for submissions from almost any position. We’ve even seen him score a win by flying triangle earlier in his career. BJJ is his greatest strength, but we’ve seen consistent improvement in his striking from fight to fight. Vargas has an extremely powerful left hand and he should have a slight advantage on the feet here. I expect Pimblett to come out extremely aggressive in pursuit of takedowns. Vargas carries a terrible 25 percent takedown defense into this matchup. Pimblett is a prospect the UFC is hoping to build and this feels like a fight they are setting him up to succeed. He should easily find the takedowns he needs to finish this one on the mat. Paddy Pimblett by Round One Submission

Arnold Allen -115 vs Dan Hooker -115

Anthony: The co-main event should be a banger with Dan Hooker taking on Arnold Allen at featherweight. This is the return to 145 pounds for Hooker after a solid stretch of fights at lightweight. He has the frame to do serious damage in this division but it is fair to question his durability while cutting so much weight. Hooker has elite kickboxing that can pick apart opponents at range, but he is a bit of a brawler happy to throw hands and elbows in close too. He has numerous bouts where both he and his opponent landed over 100 significant strikes. Hooker also has the ability to finish fights with his rather underrated offensive grappling. Allen enters this matchup having won ten in a row. He’s incredibly well rounded with great timing on the feet and very sound defense. This is a significant step up in competition for Allen and I am excited to see how he deals with such a high-volume opponent. We’ll likely see a standup affair for the majority of this contest. Hooker’s experience and ability to mix things up make me lean in his direction. I see him overwhelming Allen and eventually taking control of this bout as his power shots begin connecting. He has a significant advantage over Allen in terms of size and experience. Dan Hooker by Round Three Submission
Nick: Arnold Allen has a solid wrestling base and creative submission ability, but he has struggled at times keeping his opponents grounded. He is a talented striker who does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. Most of his fights are won on the feet, but he’s shown a well-rounded overall game and he comes into this matchup having won eight consecutive fights under the UFC banner. Hooker returns to featherweight for this scrap but he looked excellent at weigh-ins so there’s really no reason to worry about his cut. Hooker is an extremely talented kickboxer. He has powerful leg kicks that he combines with high volume and speed to wear on his opponents. He is a master of angles and does a great job finding openings for big elbows, knees and punches. This represents a massive step up in competition for Allen here, but he does seem to have what it takes to continue to climb the rankings. This is undoubtedly one of the tougher fights on the card to call, but I’m siding with Hooker. He may be moving back down in weight but in terms of level of competition he’s still a league above Allen. I expect Hooker to keep this fight standing, where he should be able to pull off a decision win on volume alone. If this does hit the mat, he is the more dangerous submission grappler. Dan Hooker by Decision

Tom Aspinall -130 vs Alexander Volkov +100

Anthony: The main event is a great bout at heavyweight with Tom Aspinall taking on Alexander Volkov. This is the first real test for Aspinall inside the UFC top ten and he’s facing a very experienced and live opponent. Every win has come by finish for the boxing phenom thus far. Hours grinding in the gym with Tyson Fury and Darren Till have yielded Aspinall the fastest hands in this division. The precision boxing and hand speed are going to be a problem for the more stationary Volkov here. In such small gloves, I am convinced Aspinall can put anyone out with just a few clean shots. Volkov will likely have his early offense stymied by Aspinall’s power and aggression. We usually see Volkov focus more on volume striking than hunting a finish, and I do not like his chances here if it is in fact a point fighting affair. He throws good prodding kicks and rangy attacks to get to opponents but he will need to be more offensively focused than usual. This will be Aspinall’s first five round main event so perhaps Volkov can take over the latter half of this bout if he does in fact fade. Aspinall is the much more likely fighter to finish though and I see him eventually cracking Volkov with something big before the gas tank is of any concern. It is a very difficult fight to call but I am going to side with the favorite. The hype surrounding Aspinall seems to be justified and Volkov is an opponent he could certainly continue to build his name upon. Tom Aspinall by Round Three KO

Nick: Aspinall doesn’t really have a ton of experience, but he’s coming off eight consecutive Wins via finish. He’s a surprisingly well-rounded heavyweight considering he only has thirteen total fights on his professional record. A former training partner of Tyson Fury, Aspinall has excellent footwork for a heavyweight. He is a highly technical boxer with advanced ability both offensively and defensively. He has impressive speed for the division, and he comes into this fight with a lot of momentum off a KO win over Sergey Spivak and a Submission win over a former champion in Andrei Arlovski. Alexander Volkov has advanced technical boxing ability. He uses his range well, works effectively behind his jab. He has shown excellent cardio for a heavyweight, but there’s no denying he is now a bit past his prime. Volkov’s path to victory here would be to slow this fight down, lean heavily on his jab and front kicks to keep Aspinall at range and to avoid any attempted takedowns. I expect this fight to be fairly close on the feet, but Aspinall is going to have a considerable grappling advantage here. He’s a BJJ blackbelt with underrated submission ability in his back pocket. I could certainly see this fight going either way, especially if it makes it out of the first two rounds. Ultimately I am siding with the speed, grappling, and hometown advantage for Aspinall. As long as his cardio holds up, I expect he gets his hand raised. Tom Aspinall by Round Three KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_