UFC 272 Predictions

UFC 272: Covington vs Masvidal – 3.5.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 272: Covington vs Masvidal. This is the largest pay-per-view event of the year as friends turned bitter rivals will finally settle their beef inside the octagon. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 45-26-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 48-23-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 3-4-2022 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Starts 6:00pm EST

Dustin Jacoby -190 vs Michael Oleksiejczuk +155

Anthony: The card today opens with a light heavyweight bout between Dustin Jacoby and Michael Oleksiejczuk. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line fall a bit further in Jacoby’s favor by the time these fights begin. Every performance I have seen from Jacoby in the UFC has been extremely impressive. He is a very high-level kickboxer on a ten-fight winning streak dating back to Glory in 2017. I love the diversity of his strikes, the high pace he pushes and the durability we have seen on display. Oleksiejczuk is a striker that really focuses on setting up and landing a knockout punch. Precision usually beats power at a level like this and I see Oleksiejczuk getting absolutely picked apart if unable to land that single bomb. Jacoby is going to be the more effective fighter at distance while also throwing a kick heavy attack that Oleksiejczuk will have trouble defending. I am expecting this to be a dominant performance and perhaps even a stoppage win for Dustin Jacoby. Dustin Jacoby by Decision
Nick: We have a fun matchup here to start things off between two light heavyweights that like to stand and trade. While Michael Oleksiejczkuk has shown a propensity to fade late in fights, he has serious knockout power and he does a good job putting consistent pressure on his opponents. He’s developed a favorable reputation as a fast starter with a lot of quick finishes. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Modestas Bukauskas and Shamil Gamzatov and he’ll look to build on that momentum here against a very difficult out in Dustin Jacoby. Dustin Jacoby is a high-level striker who has continued to show improvements in all facets of his game. Fighting out of Factory X, he has a great team behind him and it seems he continues to make considerable improvements every time we see him in the cage. A former Glory Kickboxer, he brings a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. Jacoby has an excellent leg kick, which will be vital in this match-up as a means to slow the pressure of Oleksiejczuk. Jacoby has had issues against pressure strikers in the past, but those flaws seem to be behind him. I expect a measured performance here where Jacoby utilizes kicks to manage range and outland Oleksiejczuk over three rounds from range. Dustin Jacoby by Decision

Devonte Smith -150 vs Ludovit Klein +125

Anthony: Next is a matchup between two potent finishers in Devonte Smith and Ludovit Klein. This is a matchup that came together on short notice as Smith was initially slated to fight Erick Gonzalez. Klein is accustomed to the featherweight limit but accepts this bout at 155 pounds. The previous two losses for Klein have been very poor showings after what was an electric UFC debut. He’s certainly a bit too eager to chase power shots and energy conservation has been negatively affected as a result. Klein is going to be once again looking to strike and throw kicks with bad intentions. Smith is more well-rounded and capable of fighting at a more frantic pace. I believe Smith has a lot of success in this fight by crowding the kicker and really putting the pressure on Klein from the jump. We have yet to see much good out of Klein on his back foot. Smith should be the stronger fighter and also grind Klein on the fence when in search of control time. Not one of his fights has seen the judge’s scorecards and again I think we see him claim victory early today. Devonte Smith by Round One KO
Nick: Devonte Smith has never had a fight go to decision. He’s a power puncher who almost always comes out firing. We never really seen his cardio tested due to his kill or be killed fighting style, but he’s a dangerous opponent for anyone given his advanced speed and athleticism. Klein is extremely advanced on the feet in terms of technical ability for a 27-year-old. He has decent grappling, but the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponents into powerful shots. He sometimes struggles to get going as he waits for fights to come to him, which we saw his last time out in an ugly loss as a -390 favorite to Nate Landwehr. Prior to his two most recent losses, Klein was coming off four-straight knockout victories, including a massive KO in his debut over City Kickboxing’s Shane Young. Klein has never fought at 155 pounds before. He’s going to be the smaller fighter in this match-up, but I was encouraged to see him at weigh-ins as he looked healthier at 155 than he usually does down a weight class. This is a low confidence play as Smith has the power to put Klein away early. However, I’m siding with the value of the underdog. I see Klein giving away the first round and then taking over as Smith starts to fade. Ludovit Klein by Round Two KO

Tagir Ulanbekov -230 vs Tim Elliott +180

Anthony: Next is an interesting bout at flyweight between Tagir Ulanbekov and Tim Elliott. This should be your typical high-volume flyweight bout with a lot of scrambles and level changes, but one largely controlled by Ulanbekov on the mat. He’s one of Dagestan’s finest who is training with the likes of Umar and Khabib Nurmagomedov. While his performances thus far have been a bit underwhelming he’s still getting his hand raised and proving to be in control of exchanges on the mat. There is a clear deficiency in the striking of Ulanbekov but I do not think that gets exposed in a matchup like this. Elliott certainly has the awkward and aggressive style to win the judges favor on the feet, but I think he lacks the grappling chops to stay out of harm’s way in this one. Ulanbekov is a bit of a weight bully and Elliott will have a hard time dealing with his strength over the course of fifteen minutes. These odds do not feel warranted as I could see a close decision swaying either way. However, I am rather confidently siding with the favorite here even if I do not put much money on him. Tagir Ulanbekov by Decision
Nick: Ulanbekov is a training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov and one of the more hyped prospects we have right now at flyweight. As a former Combat Sambo World Champion, he’s an excellent grappler, but he also does a good job using his length to succeed on the feet. He sometimes struggles to keep his opponents grounded once he does take them down, but he’s relentless in his pursuit of takedowns and usually does an excellent job of chain-wrestling to control the pace of his fights. Elliott is getting up there in age, but he remains a tough out for almost anyone in this division. Elliott’s style is rough around the edges, but he’s effective pretty much everywhere. In listening to his interviews this week it seems he knows he can’t spend too much time on his back chasing submissions. Tim Elliot is known for his hyper aggressive and unconventional style. He starts fights like he is shot out of a cannon, but he’s been known to give away fights by making mistakes via his overaggressive nature. While this overaggressiveness has plagued him for the majority of his career, he’s recently shown improvements in this area. The main reason for these improvements is likely his move back to Glory MMA to train under James Krause. Krause is one of the more vocal head coaches in the UFC and the boost he gives a reckless fighter like Elliott is dramatic. The line is off here in my opinion and I see Elliott as being live. Ulanbekov is talented, but he doesn’t really carry aggressive finishing ability. This is another low confidence pick, but I’m happy to back the underdog at big plus money. Tim Elliott by Decision

Umar Nurmagomedov -1000 vs Brian Kelleher +600

Anthony: Closing the early prelims is a matchup between Umar Nurmagomedov and Brian Kelleher. This fight has the widest odds on the card as Nurmagomedov certainly has captured the interest of the public. It will be contested at 145 pounds despite these two being bantamweight contenders. The undefeated prospect not only boasts grappling chops as good as his elite teammates, but incredible striking as well. He is a fierce competitor who uses big actions to very quickly take over his bouts. While I could certainly see him throwing bombs on Kelleher and bonus chasing, Nurmagomedov should have no problem dominating this fight using his wrestling first. With the relaxed weight cut he should be as strong as ever and Kelleher has historically done his worst against guys that put him on his back. The hype behind this kid is backed up by a very impressive resume. Given the value on Kelleher at these odds I understand a small bet, but just know his only outs are likely by guillotine or a lucky left hand. Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
Nick: Nurmagomedov carries a lot of hype into this match-up as a former M1 Global Bantamweight Champion and a protege of Khabib Nurmagomedov. He’s undefeated at 13-0, a creative striker with excellent footwork and a creative arsenal of kicks. He’s developed as a wrestler as well, but he prefers to mostly fight on the feet where he usually overwhelms his opponents with speed and volume. Kelleher’s greatest strengths are his KO Power and his outstanding guillotine choke. While he can put opponents away with his hands, he can be over-aggressive at times and as a result he leaves himself open to counter-shots. He’s fun to watch because he’s willing to take damage, but against advanced strikers he often finds himself on the wrong end of exchanges. The line is ridiculous here given Kelleher has a distinct experience advantage. Still, Nurmagomedov is the rightful favorite as I expect he’ll outclass Kelleher everywhere. He’s going to be the more technical striker in this match-up and I expect he’ll lean on his wrestling more than usual here as he’s going to have a distinct advantage on the mat here as well. As long as he doesn’t get caught in a guillotine or run into a power shot, this is Nurmagomedov’s fight to win or lose. The UFC is looking to build his stock here against a tough but beatable vet. Umar Nurmagomedov by Round One Submission

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Mariya Agapova -190 vs Maryna Moroz +155

Anthony: This is a grudge match at women’s flyweight between Mariya Agapova and Maryna Moroz. Similar to our main event, these are two former teammates at American Top Team that do not at all like each other. Moroz had verbally dragged Agapova and made the gym a very hostile place for her which prompted this callout after Agapova’s latest win. She is a very impressive prospect boasting a record of 10-2 at just 24 years old. The only real blemish in her career came as a -1200 favorite against Shana Dobson, a matchup where Agapova badly exhausted herself chasing a finish. She looked much improved in her last time out and I see him having her way with Moroz in this spot. Not only is Agapova a crisper striker, but also far better at working from distance. She also attacks well offensively and could certainly rely on takedowns if needed against an opponent like Moroz. At these odds I will be betting Agapova. While Moroz could certainly steal this fight on the scorecards I believe that to be her only chance at a victory. Mariya Agapova by Round Two KO
Nick: We have a fun matchup here between two women who genuinely hate one another. Agapova called for this matchup suggesting Moroz was gossiping about her and smearing her name. Moroz seems to have no respect for Agapova, which makes this one of the more intriguing matchups on the prelims. Agapova will have a considerable size advantage here. She’s not going to be as technically sound as Moroz on the feet, but she has a solid chin and I expect her to willingly eat shots and keep pressing forward. Maria Agapova was an extremely highly regarded prospect before she fell as a -1400 favorite back in 2020. That loss came against a fighter in Shana Dobson who has since been cut from the promotion. She came out firing in that spot, but her cardio seemed non-existent. She gassed extremely quickly in that fight, Dobson took advantage and then put Agapova out with authority via TKO. She looked a lot better her last time out, a third-round submission win over Sabina Mazo. She did a good job working behind her jab, her cardio held up well, and she showed a willingness to stand in the pocket and swing. Maryna Moroz hasn’t fought since her 2020 win over Marya Bueno SIlva. She did a good job scoring takedowns and then controlling position in that fight, but it’s concerning that it’s been so long since we’ve seen her in the cage. Agapova lands more than a full significant strike more than Moroz does per minute. She’s also younger, more active and a more powerful striker. Moroz will be live for the upset if she leans on her grappling, but I’m not confident she’ll be able to here against the bigger and stronger Agapova. Mariya Agapova by Decision

Kennedy Nzechukwu -140 vs Nick Negumereanu +115

Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight bout between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Nicolae Negumereanu. The odds remain rather close on this bout as neither fighter has done much to warrant bettors hard earned money. Nzechukwu had been enjoying a bit of a resurgence as of late before being picked apart by Da Un Jung in just over three minutes. Nzechukwu is big, strong and a serious threat once his hands start to get going. However, he is a notoriously slow starter with a lot of focus on defense and strike absorption in the opening round. Negumereanu has had three rather underwhelming UFC bouts to accompany the rest of his padded resume. I’m still unsure whether Negumereanu is even UFC caliber and for that reason I have to defer to Nzechukwu who at least has won me some money before. I find myself willing to trust Nzechukwu here to at least survive and fight hard late if he gets into trouble early. Hopefully he fights more confidently here with the perceived advantage in size and experience. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round Two KO
Nick: Kennedy Nzechukwu is a talented striker with a cast iron chin and serious KO power. The biggest knock on Nzechukwu is his low output and tendency to stay excessively conservative as he waits for fights to come to him. His grappling ability could be a weakness as well, but he’s very tall and athletic which helps him to defend takedowns against a wide range of opponents. Nick Negumereanu finds most of his success pushing forward and brawling. He has an excellent chin, a decent jab, and underrated wrestling ability as well. He is a fairly technical boxer offensively, with sneaky KO power. However, he doesn’t really move his head off the center line, so there are understandably questions surrounding his durability/chin, as six of his twelve professional losses have come via KO. Negumereanu is going to need to be careful not to get in a fire fight with Nzechukwu here. However, he’s going to be the aggressor and I’m confident in him forcing Nzechukwu to fight off his back foot. That being said, Nzechukwu is at his best when he can counter. I hate backing him as really isn’t active in the cage, but I’ll bank on Negumereanu bringing the fight to him. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round Two KO

Marina Rodriguez -265 vs Yan Xiaonan +210

Anthony: This is an awesome women’s strawweight bout between Marina Rodriguez and Yan Xiaonan. It is honestly a shame that this bout is not higher up the card given the fan friendly nature and title implications on the line. Both of these women are very high volume strikers that are going to land their fair share of damage in this bout. Xiaonan throws at a very quick rate, often looking to sway the judges with rather skewed striking numbers. Rodriguez throws looking to put her opponents to sleep. Power does not translate to many finishes in this weight class but Rodriguez absolutely cracks. She has excellent timing, a great jab and very clean Muay-Thai. I see this being a slugfest between two fighters dipping in and out of range frequently. While I do agree that Rodriguez has been the more impressive of these two, I am not sure odds this wide are entirely warranted. I worry about this being a close decision that could go either way. Be sure to tune in early to catch this one as it has Fight of the Night written all over it. Marina Rodriguez by Decision
Nick: This is a high-level women’s matchup between two of the division’s more interesting contenders. Rodriguez is a powerful Muay-Thai striker. She’s found success against a high level of competition and she’s coming off back-to-back main event victories over Michelle Waterson and Mackenzie Dern. Yan Xiaonan was on a roll before she was out-grappled her last time out against Carla Esparza. Xiaonan averages 5.95 Significant strikes landed per minute, and win or lose, all of her opponents seem to end up wearing significant damage. She does a good job circling away from her opponents’ strengths on the feet and most of the strikes she throws are meaningful. Rodriguez is the far more aggressive and dangerous striker here. The line feels too wide as Xiaonan is highly skilled, but she is a bit too hittable for my liking here. In a fight I fully expect to take place at striking range, I’m siding with the more powerful and dangerous striker in Rodriguez. Additionally, there’s really no denying that Rodriguez has the more impressive wins on her resume. This is a confident pick, but I prefer to bet Rodriguez by decision as there’s really no value on this money line. Marina Rodriguez by Decision

Jalin Turner -155 vs Jamie Mullarkey +130

Anthony: The featured prelim is a very interesting bout between lightweight Jalin Turner and Jamie Mullarkey. These are two potent finishers on solid winning streaks, looking to climb into the rankings of this division soon. Both are extremely skillful no matter what position they may find themselves in here. Turner has to have the slight edge on the feet given his length and effectiveness utilizing range. He can really pop out a jab to keep Mullarkey from pressuring him too hard, but that will certainly be the gameplan nonetheless. Mullarkey is a junkyard dog that can continue pushing a pace and wearing down opponents as a fight drags on. He does excellent work to the body of opponents and really has crisp boxing when his bouts are a bit more technical. Mullarkey also has a high-volume wrestling attack that he can often rely on when outmatched on the feet. Turner is a very dangerous opponent when the fight hits the mat so I am really not certain what the approach from Mullarkey will be. I like the value on him here as an underdog though due given his grit and impressive performances lately. He should be the much fresher fighter if this fight does see a round three. Jaime Mullarkey by Decision
Nick: Jalin Turner is a well-rounded fighter whose greatest strength is his surprisingly long reach and length for the division. He does an excellent job using his length to keep opponents at a distance while striking at range. He has enough power in his shots to end a fight early, but it’s mostly the volume with his jab that makes him so effective. While his rangy striking is certainly what stands out when you watch him on film, he’s also a talented grappler coming off back-to-back wins by submission. Nine of Turner’s ten professional victories have come by way of finish. As impressive as that may seem, he has also lost by knockout three times. He’s a true ‘kill-or-be-killed’ style fighter. Mullarkey is mostly known for his war with Brad Riddell. A fight he ultimately lost, but also one where he was awarded Fight of the Night in a bout that primarily took place on the feet. He wore a lot more damage than Riddell did in that one, but he showed serious durability and an improvement in his counterstriking that we’d never really seen from him before. He was effective in most grappling exchanges and while he was swept and reversed at times, he did a good job staying out of serious trouble and getting back to his feet when he needed to. Since that war, Mullarkey is 2-1 in the UFC including an impressive KO victory his last time out over Devonte Smith. Mullarkey usually does a good job ducking under shots to close distance. That will be a major key for him here against a rangy and technical striker like Turner. I expect Turner to look good early here, but Mullarkey should be able to mix in his grappling and start to take over as this fight wears on. Jamie Mullarkey by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Sergey Spivak -200 vs Greg Hardy +160

Anthony: The main card opens with the heavyweight as Greg Hardy fights Sergey Spivak. It is going to be interesting to see the pace these two decide to work at given their respective strategies entering the cage. Spivak is a polished fighter with very good wrestling and high level jiu jitsu. He is one of the few heavyweights that hunt for takedowns and look to fight their opponent on the mat. Hardy is quite the opposite. He is a true heavyweight that will likely be entering the cage close to 300 pounds tonight. While he is still developing technically as a fighter, the boxing of Hardy is rather crisp and he hits much harder than Spivak can. After seeing Spivak get cracked badly in his last fight I am not rushing to back him against another power puncher. Hardy is more than live to connect on something and for that reason I will bet him as the sizeable dog. He has thus far defended 80 percent of opponent takedown attempts. With Hardy’s large base and football background, I think Spivak finds it much harder to wrestler than he may anticipate. He has thus far had a very solid professional career and I still think the best of Greg Hardy is yet to come. Greg Hardy by Round One KO
Nick: We open up the main card with a ‘striker vs. grappler’ match-up at heavyweight. Spivak has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight, with six of his thirteen professional wins coming via submission. He’s decent in the clinch as striker but seems hesitant at times which can keep inferior opponents in fights he should be dominating. Greg Hardy is about as questionable of a character as there is in the UFC. He’s a tough guy to cheer for, but there’s no denying his athleticism and speed as a heavyweight. Hardy has been spending a lot of time with a former champion in Rashad Evans. For a guy who usually makes terrible decisions, I will give Hardy credit for surrounding himself with the right people. He’s still mostly mediocre. There’s nothing that exciting about his overall game outside of his power and athleticism. He has decent boxing ability, but he doesn’t throw much volume. He’s powerful, but he often telegraphs his bigger shots. He’s coming off back-to-back losses to Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura. He had moments in each loss, but his overall lack of ability allowed more skilled opponents to shut him down. Hardy will be live for the upset early here. If he rushes Spivak and throws big shots he could certainly take him out. However, I expect Spivak’s grappling ability to be the difference here. I see him weathering an early storm from Hardy, finding a takedown and then working him on the mat for a submission. The line does feel a bit too wide but I’m siding with the favorite. Sergey Spivak by Round One Submission

Kevin Holland -400 vs Alex Oliveira +300

Anthony: Next is a bout at welterweight between Kevin Holland and Alex Cowboy Oliveira. Holland has officially made the move down to 170 pounds and he looked exceptional on the scales yesterday. He has unorthodox striking, working a lot in a fluid karate stance and stepping in to attack opponents on both sides when he sees the opportunity. His size is a major issue for opponents in this division and that will likely be proven true today with his four-inch reach advantage over Oliveira. It seems like they are feeding Holland the aging veteran here in order to get back on track. Oliveira is a legend and always puts on a fun fight. However, Brazilian Cowboy has lost three consecutive bouts and six of his last eight. Young talent continues to get cracks at Oliveira and I fear this is another matchup he gets beaten. Holland is a lot faster and I see him eventually putting together a combination to hurt Oliveira. I see Holland’s speed and precision being just too much for him here. He also has the far superior cardio if this fight were to get stretched into the later rounds. We have yet to see how hard Holland can hit down in this weight division. Kevin Holland by Round One KO
Nick: These guys like to stand and swing, they both have power and they’ve both shown time and time again that they can take a lot of damage. Cowboy Oliveira is known as one of the more entertaining fighters in this division. He is extremely active when he’s in the cage and does an excellent job closing distance against a wide range of opponents. Oliveira is well-versed on the ground, but it is seeming more and more that he prefers to keep most of his fights on the feet. Holland is one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC at middleweight, but he’ll be cutting down to 170 for this one. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game – his takedown defense. The likely reason for his move down in weight is that he’s been manhandled by grapplers at 185. He lost convincingly to both Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson. He was dominated on the mat in both spots, but this is a much better match-up for him and it’s certainly going to benefit him now that he’ll be one of the bigger guys at 170. Oliveira’s hyper-aggressiveness often leaves him vulnerable and in bad positions. He’s dangerous on the feet, but Holland is far more technically sound. I also see Holland as having a considerable cardio advantage here. He should pull away convincingly as this fight wears on. Holland is one of my favorite bets on this card. Kevin Holland by Round Two KO

Bryce Mitchell -160 vs Edson Barboza +140

Anthony: The featured bout is a matchup at featherweight between Edson Barboza and the undefeated Bryce Mitchell. This is an extremely exciting scrap between a high-level grappler and one of the best strikers in UFC history. Barboza has done nothing but fight killers during his promotional tenure. As of late we have seen a modest decline in his performances but Barboza is still a lethal opponent given his wide arsenal of strikers. He has excellent hands, good combinations to the body, and a ton of attacks at kicking range. Mitchell is a prospect that the UFC has loved to promote and one who fights with relentless pressure. He has a very grappling heavy attack and a deadly submission game. I do not think that Mitchell will have too many problems keeping this fight on the mat, and he will absolutely need to in order to win. Not only has Mitchell proven to be capable of going and getting takedowns but he also has exceptional of control when he does get his opponent to the mat. It really is going to be an easy fight for Barboza if he is able to keep things standing but I see him certainly getting grounded a few times here. As tempting as the underdog may be in this spot I have to stick with Mitchell who I believe has a very bright future. Bryce Mitchell by Decision
Nick: Bryce Mitchell is arguably the most dangerous grappler in the world at 145 pounds. He comes into this fight at an undefeated 15-0, with nine of his fifteen professional wins coming via submission. We haven’t seen him fight since October of 2020, but he’s widely regarded as a future contender at featherweight. Barboza does a good job using kicks to keep pressure on his opponents. He was an early adopter of the ever-popular leg-kick and he uses it more effectively than anyone on the roster. Barboza has an excellent job mixing in body work and setting up his punches with feints. He’s one of the best strikers in the UFC, with serious KO power in all of his limbs. I understand Mitchell being the favorite here as he has a very clear path to victory on the mat. However, this is a dramatic step-up in competition for him against Barboza. I’m also not encouraged by the fact that we haven’t seen him fight since 2020. This is not a confident pick and a tough one to call, but once again I’m taking the value on the underdog. Edson Barboza by Decision

Rafael dos Anjos -180 vs Renato Moicano +155

Anthony: The co-main event is a fight scheduled for five rounds with Renato Moicano taking on Rafael dos Anjos. The bout came together on short notice this week after Rafael Fiziev had contracted coronavirus. Moicano steps in as the late replacement after winning his bout at UFC 271 just three weeks ago. He arrived back in Las Vegas on Wednesday after 20 hours of travel from Brazil. Sure Moicano disposed of Alexander Hernandez with relative ease but a fight with dos Anjos is a much more daunting task. While Moicano is a decent striker, he does not hit hard and is far more efficient while offensive grappling. I see him struggling here against a talented wrestler and 4th degree black belt like RDA. The former champion is accustomed to five round fights and unless Moicano can find an early submission I see him fading as this bout wears on. While Moicano has shared the cage with elite fighters like dos Anjos, he has yet to secure a victory over anyone of this caliber. He did not have ample time to prepare for a challenge like this and even on a full camp Moicano would be the underdog in this matchup. Dos Anjos is a great bet at these current odds. He should win striking exchanges, land his left hand plenty, and sap Moicano’s energy when things do hit the mat. Dos Anjos really only struggles against high level wrestlers and Moicano does not pose that stylistic threat. Raphael dos Anjos by Round Four Submission
Nick: Renato Moicano stepped into this co-main event on just five days’ notice. Dos Anjos is coming off a full camp in which he was training to take on Rafael Fiziev. I have no doubt that he’s going to be the better prepared fighter here. Additionally, RDA has spent much of his career fighting at 170 pounds and Moicano has found most of his success at featherweight. Dos Anjos is a well-rounded fighter. He’s solid on the feet, but he can also lean on his BJJ and does an excellent job controlling position against inferior grapplers. Moicano is an advanced BJJ blackbelt. He has outstanding offensive grappling and he does a good job scrambling into favorable positions against a wide-range of opponents. His greatest strengths are definitely shown on the mat, but he is comfortable striking both in the clinch and in open space with an impressive Muay-Thai style. Moicano secured an impressive submission victory over Alex Hernandez just a few weeks ago. He’s going to be dangerous early here, but this feels like a brutal matchup for him on short notice. As long as he’s measured in the early rounds this feels like RDA’s fight to lose. I expect he’ll lean on a grappling heavy attack until he puts a dent in Moicano’s gas tank. Rafael dos Anjos by Round Four KO

Colby Covington -330 vs Jorge Masvidal +250

Anthony: The main event is a welterweight grudge match years in the making as former teammates Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington collide. Both fighters have let their disdain for the other be known through consistent media bickering and slander. Covington is quite clearly second in the division to the champion Kamaru Usman. In each match Covington was able to keep the fight extremely tight and threaten Usman more than any other challenger. Masvidal was bullied by Usman in their first meeting and put to sleep with a swift right hand in the second. Covington can implement the same wrestling heavy gameplan to outwork and control Masvidal in this matchup. His cardio is unmatched by maybe any fighter in the UFC, and the striking from Colby has been a lot cleaner since switching camps. Leaving behind the drama at American Top Team seems to have produced the best version of Colby Covington yet. Masvidal is always live to connect with shots his opponent won’t see, but I think the improved defense of Covington will also be a factor in securing this victory. As long as he can drag things to the mat for at least large portions of this bout I do not see Covington having any problem taking this over late. He has proven to be durable and is quite clearly the superior athlete. The betting odds feel warranted and Covington will certainly be in the parlays that I build. It seems that things have really gotten personal for Masvidal, but Covington has thus far played this off as just another fight. Colby Covington by Round Four Submission

Nick: This is a highly anticipated grudge match between two former friends and training partners that now hate each one another. Covington is one of the best welterweights in the world, but he treats the sport like it’s the WWE and plays the bad guy to promote his fights. Masvidal is a “fighter’s fighter.” He respects the game, but what turned him on Covington was that Covington apparently didn’t pay one of his striking coaches back in 2017. Masvidal is absolutely the better striker out of the two, but Covington is a dramatically better grappler. I feel like the gap in grappling is wider than the gap in striking, mostly because Covington has shown both excellent defense and a chin on the feet. I don’t really think Covington is anywhere near Masvidal in terms of offensive striking, but he doesn’t really need to be in this spot. Masvidal will find his shots, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep Covington from ultimately pressuring him up against the cage and down to the mat. No matter how you slice it, Covington has the clearer path(s) to victory here. He has no reason to stand and trade with Masvidal and I expect he scores his takedowns early and often on his way to another victory. He has a massive grappling advantage, a solid chin, and much better cardio. The line feels too wide and Masvidal is always live for a knockout, but the favorite is the clear pick. Colby Covington by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_