UFC Vegas 49 Analysis

UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs Green – 2.26.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs Green. The UFC Apex will host a fun slate of fights today headlined bb Bobby King Green and rising star Islam Makhachev. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 37-23-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 40-20-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 2-25-2022 at 8pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Carlos Hernandez -145 vs Victor Altamirano +115

Anthony: Our card opens with a bout between debuting flyweights Carlos Hernandez and Victor Altamirano. It is hard to feel very confident on either side of this one but I think we know what we are going to get out of Altamirano. He is a very quick southpaw striker who has fought much better competition than Hernandez at this stage of his career. The only impressive victory on Hernandez’s resume is his latest win on Dana White’s Contender Series over Daniel Barez. Altamirano has always remained very active and his progression to the UFC has felt natural. I feel that he has the higher ceiling of these two and certainly will pick him as the slight underdog today. Altamirano can be kick heavy and I expect him to really tag Hernandez in the kickboxing range. This will likely be a high-volume affair that goes to the judge’s scorecards. Victor Altamirano by Decision
Nick: We have what should be a fun matchup here between two flyweight prospects coming off Contender Series wins. Five of Altamirano’s ten wins have come via submission. He had a solid body-lock takedown and decent BJJ, but he tends to spend more time on his back chasing submissions than he should. He comes out very aggressive in most of his fights. He’s technically sound offensively on the feet, but he often over-exerts himself and leaves himself open to be countered. Hernandez comes into this fight on a seven-fight win streak, including an impressive Contender Series win over a highly regarded prospect in Daniel Barez. He ate a few massive strikes early in that matchup, but he showed excellent durability and started to find his timing as that fight wore on. Hernandez is likely to have a technical advantage on the feet here. He has excellent footwork, a high guard and he throws very tight combinations in which he works well behind heavy kicks. This is a tough fight to call as neither fighter has really been tested extensively at the UFC level. However, I see Hernandez being a step ahead of Altamirano no matter where this one goes. He has the better takedown defense of the two and his technical abilities on the feet are far more advanced than Altamirano’s. I’ll likely back him on the money line. Carlos Hernandez by Decision

Ramiz Brahimaj -360 vs Michael Gillmore +270

Anthony: Next is a fight at welterweight between Ramiz Brahimaj and Michael Gillmore. This has the feeling of a feeder fight with the Fortis MMA prospect Brahimaj facing an opponent that does not seem UFC caliber. Gillmore lost his only bout on The Ultimate Fighter as a late replacement fighter. He debuted in the UFC against Andre Petroski only to be finished once again. Gillmore has poor durability and very bad grappling defense. Brahimaj is at his best when offensively grappling so I expect a good performance from him here. Jonny Parsons was the original opponent for Gillmore which would have been a much more winnable fight. Brahimaj is a nightmare for Gillmore stylistically. He should not be much of a sweat today as the second largest favorite on the card. Ramiz Brahimaj by Round Two Submission
Nick: Brahimaj is primarily a grappler with all nine of his professional wins coming via submission. On the feet, he has sneaky power and he pushes at a good pace. However, he often overexerts while throwing combinations and he seems very willing to take damage in exchanges. Gillmore is well-rounded, with a decent wrestling base and above average karate style striking ability. That being said, he has only found success against very low-level competition. He was winless on The Ultimate Fighter and many feel he shouldn’t really be on the UFC roster at all. Brahimaj will need to be careful in maintaining his gas tank here and keeping defensively sound. As long as he does, this feels like his fight to lose. Gilmore’s takedown defense is mediocre at best and four of his five professional losses have come by submission. I see Brahimaj grounding this fight early, where he should be able to advance position easily for a finish. Ramiz Brahimaz by Round One Submission

Jonathan Martinez -250 vs Alejandro Perez +200

Anthony: This should be a fun bout between bantamweight contenders Jonathan Martinez and Alejandro Perez. The fight will be contested at 145 pounds after Perez requested a weight increase earlier this week. Even the best version of Perez is not that threatening, and as of late the veteran has not looked spectacular at all. Perez is on a 2-2 skid with his victories coming over Eddie Wineland and Johnny Eduardo. Conversely there is Martinez who has really shown well for himself thus far in the UFC. He is a lengthy striker for this division and holds a size advantage once again in this matchup today. I am expecting a rather clean performance from Martinez here by keeping Perez on the end of his strikes. He is very technical in the standup and usually lands a high volume on his opponents. The betting line feels justified to me and I do not mind a straight bet on him at the current odds. Jonathan Martinez by Decision
Nick: Martinez is well rounded, but mostly excels on the feet. He’s a traditional boxer with solid head movement and footwork. He throws meaningful strikes and he does an excellent job mixing up his combinations to keep his opponents guessing. He is excellent at striking heavily out of breaks and he’s shown sneaky power in spite of his thin frame. Perez is coming off a solid win over Johnny Eduardo. He looked excellent in that spot, but there’s really no denying the fact that Eduardo is not a UFC level fighter. Martinez lands more than a full significant strike more than Perez does per minute. In a fight I expect to primarily take place on the feet, I expect Martinez to lead the charge here. As long as he paces himself and works mostly striking on the outside at range he should be able to cruise to a decision victory. Jonathan Martinez by Decision

Fares Ziam -115 vs Terrance McKinney -105

Anthony: Next is a highly anticipated lightweight scrap between Terrance McKinney and Fares Ziam. McKinney catapulted into the spotlight after a 7 second knockout win in his UFC debut. He has finished four straight fights in under two minutes of total cage time. The power is certainly a game changer for a guy at lightweight like McKinney but there is a lot more to like about him as well. McKinney has a background in wrestling and has developed solid jiu jitsu while training for his fights. A lot of his early career wins are questionable, but the resume has come together rather well over the previous few years. Ziam is a lengthy and dangerous fighter in this division just the same as McKinney. I would give Ziam a clear advantage in terms of technical kickboxing, but McKinney certainly can switch things up if the fight is not going his way on the feet. Ziam has a rather porous takedown defense so while McKinney may not traditionally shoot for legs, it is certainly going to be something his team will be considering. I am picking McKinney in this fight given his numerous paths to victory. Ziam is talented but I am reluctant to put money on him until he shows us more. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO
Nick: Terrance McKinney is coming off a massive KO win over Matt Frevola in his UFC debut. He has won four consecutive fights via first round KO and he’s going to look to build on that momentum here against a tough opponent in Fares Ziam. Ziam is primarily a kickboxer who does a good job utilizing both his jab and leg kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. Ziam is going to have the technical advantage on the feet, but I don’t think he’ll have enough power here to keep McKinney off of him for long. McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. Ziam has a mediocre grappling ability, so even if McKinney doesn’t find that flash knockout he’ll be competitive if this fight goes to the scorecards. As talented as he is, Ziam’s high-level technical ability is unlikely to make up for his lack of volume and power. I could see this one going either way, but McKinney is the pick. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO

Josiane Nunes -220 vs Ramona Pascual +180

Anthony: This is a fight at women’s featherweight as Josiane Nunes welcomes Ramona Pascual to the UFC. While these two are often competing at 135 pounds, this fight takes place up weight with Pascual stepping in as a short notice replacement. Pascual truthfully has done very little to earn this shot. Her resume is composed of fights against very lowly competition in the women’s upper weight classes. Pascual is big and strong but nobody has been hitting as hard as Nunes as of late. All of the professional wins for Nunes have come by knockout. I think we quite clearly see a difference in athleticism and striking as soon as these two are inside the cage. Over the course of the fight I see damage piling up on Pascual and her ultimately succumbing to the strikes of her opponent. The ceiling certainly seems to be high for Nunes if she can stack a few more wins. Josiane Nunes by Round Two KO
Nick: Josiane Nunes is coming off an impressive knockout win over Bea Malecki in her UFC debut. She’s small for the division, but very tough and powerful with surprisingly advanced boxing ability. Ramona Pascual will be making her UFC debut here coming off three consecutive first round wins by finish. She hasn’t really been tested against a high level of competition, but she seems well-rounded with wins by both KO and submission. It’s notable that Pascual is taking this fight on short notice. She’ll be fighting up a weight-class here, so Nunes won’t be at the same size disadvantage she normally is. Pascual may have a future but taking this fight at 145 I expect she’ll be outmatched. Nunes is much tougher than anyone Pascual has faced and while Pascual may have a grappling advantage, I don’t expect she’ll be able to take the fight to the mat. I see Nunes sprawling and brawling effectively here on her way to another finish victory. Josiane Nunes by Round Two KO

Ignacio Bahamondes -210 vs Rong Zhu +170

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with an exciting lightweight bout between Rong Zhu and Ignacio Bahamondes. Zhu was the only fighter to miss weight yesterday, coming in four pounds heavy on the scales. This is the second consecutive weight miss for him. If Zhu is going to win this fight, he will need to implement his wrestling to great effect. Bahamondes is an exceptional striker as evidenced by his last performance over Roosevelt Roberts. After battering Roberts for fifteen minutes, Bahamondes ended the fight with a wheel kick knockout as time expired. Holding a significant size advantage over Zhu should make stuffing takedown attempts rather easy. Bahamondes has also stuffed all 17 takedowns attempted in his previous three bouts. The product of VFS Academy knows that he is most effective when the fight is contested on the feet. Bahamondes will be able to follow the same gameplan and pick apart Rong Zhu here this evening. While the extra pounds could help Zhu while grappling, I think the weight miss makes me even more confident in my pick. Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision
Nick: Bahamondes has what many would describe as a loose and free striking style. He’s very light on his feet and does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He’s shown an ability to KO his opponents both at range and in the clinch. He has surprising power for his frame, but he often leaves his head on the centerline and as a result he tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. Rong Zhu is a highly technical striker with an aggressive style. He is a highly regarded prospect at only 21-years old, as he already has 20 professional fights. Zhu will be live for the upset here if he can mix in some grappling. However, I expect he will have trouble securing takedowns against the lengthy Bahamondes. Bahamondes fights at an excellent pace and can put out a lot of volume. Zhu also missed weight for this matchup and I find it hard to trust his gas tank if implementing a wrestling heavy gameplan. My one fear in backing Bahamondes here is that he can become overly relaxed defensively. If he takes his time and fights intelligently, I see him once again coming out with a win. Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Gregory Rodrigues -165 vs Armen Petrosyan +140

Anthony: The main card opens with a middleweight fight between Armen Petrosyan and Gregory Rodrigues. I am expecting a very good battle here between powerful strikers that have a lot of potential in this division. Petrosyan is making his UFC debut off a win on Dana White’s Contender Series. He fought the undefeated Kaloyan Kolev and after defending constant wrestling early, Petrosyan was able to flatline him in the very first round. The speed and length of Petrosyan make him dangerous at range while his Muay Thai appears to be extremely polished. Rodrigues will have trouble keeping up with Petrosyan on the feet but I have learned not to doubt what he is capable of. As needed Rodrigues has been willing to absolutely brawl, eating shots while continuing to march forward. He also has a blackbelt in BJJ that will likely get put to use in a matchup like this. The Brazilian is at a clear advantage in terms of grappling and he should have no problem controlling this fight if able to complete an early takedown. Rodrigues is the bet for me as he has multiple paths to victory and a much better resume than his opponent. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Two Submission
Nick: We have an interesting matchup here between two impressive prospects at middleweight. Rodrigues is coming off back-to-back UFC wins over Dusko Todorovic and Jun Young Park. He has a BJJ black belt, but he’s found most of his success just standing and striking at range. Armen Petrosyan will be making his UFC debut here coming off an impressive Contender Series win over an undefeated Kaloyan Kolev. He’s a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and outstanding speed. If this fight only takes place at striking range, Petrosyan should dominate. However, I see Rodrigues leaning on a grappling heavy gameplan to nullify the strengths of Petrosyan. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if Rodrigues makes the mistake of standing and trading, in which case I’d expect Petrosyan to win via KO. However, I’m siding with Rodrigues here. I just don’t see Petrosyan keeping this fight standing for as long as he’ll need to. Gregory Rodrigues by Round One Submission

Arman Tsarukyan -220 vs Joel Alvarez +180

Anthony: Next is a lightweight bout between rising stars Arman Tsarukyan and Joel Alvarez. I have won quite a lot betting on Alvarez in his previous three bouts. The Spanish prospect is really rounding into form and looking like a serious threat in the division. Alvarez has had some issues making weight in the past but he looked healthy on the scales yesterday. He is a huge lightweight, carrying a lot of power in his hands, elbows and kicks. Tsarukyan has already broken into the rankings with a 17-2 record. His only loss since 2015 came while making his promotional debut against Islam Makhachev. The wins have been very impressive for Tsarukyan and his resume as a whole is much stronger than that of Alvarez. It is clear he will want to implement wrestling in this bout to get the tall striker neutralized on the mat. Tsarukyan averages four takedowns per fight and Alvarez has yet to defend a single shot in the UFC. Alvarez is known to chase the guillotine and other defensive submissions but I feel a polished fighter like Arman should be alert to any attempts. While Tsarukyan will look quite undersized here, the weight he carries in a smaller frame should allow him to dominate these wrestling exchanges. Alvarez is a very live underdog but this matchup feels like a bit too much for him to handle. With the odds continuing to plummet towards Alvarez I am happy to bet on Tsarukyan at what I consider a discounted number. Arman Tsarukyan by Decision
Nick: Arman Tsarukyan is one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. He’s an effective wrestler as well as a creative striker with an extremely high Fight IQ and durability. Tsarukyan has one of the better single-leg entries in the division. His scrambling is outstanding, as it was on fully on display in his UFC debut against Islam Makhachev. Joel Alvarez is extremely tall for a lightweight. He is decent on the feet, but his offensive grappling is his greatest weapon as a BJJ brown-belt and most of his wins come via submission. Tsarukyan has never been submitted professionally. He’s excellent in scrambles and his defensive grappling ability is amongst the best there is in the world at 155. I see Tsarukyan being the more talented striker here. Alvarez will be dangerous early, but I see Tsarukyan’s defensive prowess being enough to stay out of danger. He should stay a step ahead of Alvarez here as this fight wears on. Arman Tsarukyan by Decision

Ji Yeon Kim -165 vs Priscila Cachoeira +140

Anthony: The featured bout is a women’s flyweight matchup of Ji Yeon Kim and Priscila Cachoeira. This matchup is low-level with both women coming off losses in their previous fights. Cachoeira was submitted in the first round of her bout with Gillian Robertson. Her fights are always difficult to call given her aggressive, brawling nature and suspect gas tank. Cachoeira can usually be relied upon for one or two hard rounds of pressure while striking. While I concede that Ji Yeon Kim is the far more technical striker, I have yet to see anything out of her that really impresses me. She doesn’t pack much of a punch and will struggle to get an opponent like Cachoeira out of the cage. I will bet on the underdog here in what is truly a coinflip fight in my eyes. Priscila Cachoeira by Decision
Nick: Ji Yeon Kim is well-rounded with an extensive background in multiple disciplines. She’s solid pretty much everywhere, but she has found most of her success on the feet. Cachoeira is very compact in her stance when she’s striking. She throws fairly effective combinations and she does a good job using her volume to keep pressure on opponents. She can take a shot and keep moving forward, but her cardio is suspect at best and she usually starts to fade late in the second and into the third round. Kim will have technical advantages here, but Cachoeira is undoubtedly the more dangerous and powerful striker. If this fight ends early I see Cahoeira pulling off the upset, but it seems more likely Kim weathers an early storm and starts to take over late. This is probably my least confident pick on the card, but I prefer the favorite here. Ji Yeon Kim by Decision

Misha Cirkunov -120 vs Wellington Turman +100

Anthony: The co-main event is a bout at middleweight between Misha Cirkunov and Wellington Turman. Odds have stayed near even for this fight all week largely due to how volatile both fighters are. Turman had been knocked out quickly in two bouts before beating Sam Alvey by split decision last year. He is a powerful striker but a tendency of Turman’s is to hunt for takedowns. While Turman does pose a submission threat, the far superior grappler is Cirkunov. Five of Cirkunov’s UFC wins have come by submission with the other being a knockout via ground and pound. It is always concerning to bet on these two due to their suspect chins, particularly that of Cirkunov. However I largely see this fight being contested on the mat and Cirkunov’s chin should be safe from damage there. He should be able to get the job done being the more technical and physically strong grappler. Turman is also at a disadvantage of five-inches in reach and three-inches height. Misha Cirkunov by Round One Submission
Nick: Cirkunov heavily leans on his grappling as five of his last six wins have come by way of submission. Cirkunov’s striking is decent at best. He backs up when opponents can put volume on him, but as long as he can take fights to the ground he usually ends up in the win column. He has notable victories over Nikita Krylov, Jimmy Crute and Ion Cutelaba, all of whom I consider to be more talented than Turman. While Turman is a decent grappler, he hasn’t really exhibited much of a Fight IQ. His durability is questionable at best and we haven’t really seen his cardio hold up at this level. He has some power on the feet, but he telegraphs his strikes and defensively he struggles at times leaving himself open to counter shots. This will be the second time that Cirkunov will be fighting at middleweight. I don’t want to overinvest in him here as his cardio is a major concern. Still, I see him outclassing Turman in this spot. Turman usually outmuscles his opponents when he finds success, and he won’t be able to do that here. Misha Cirkunov by Round Two Submission

Islam Makhachev -900 vs Bobby Green +600

Anthony: Closing the card is our main event with Islam Makhachev fighting Bobby Green at a catchweight of 160 pounds. This was originally scheduled as a lightweight number one contender fight between Makhachev and Beneil Dariush. Due to injury, Dariush was forced to withdraw and as a result Green got the call on extremely short notice. Green is a gangster for taking this fight, especially having won convincingly in a bout against Nasrat Haqparast just two weeks ago. He is rewarded for his efforts with a solid payday and his first UFC main event. Unfortunately, Green is walking into a terrible stylistic matchup. Makhachev is an overpowering wrestler. Green is already a bit banged up from his last fight and surely is not going to have much time to prepare for this kind of a scrap. Makhachev will likely get Green to the mat and into a position that he ultimately is unable to escape. Green has solid takedown defense given his hand placement and quick sprawl. I could see Green having some success in the early going here but Makhachev will find an opportunity to ground things before long. On the feet Makhachev has solid striking defense and the odds of Green landing something flush are low. With Green having no preparation to go five hard rounds, I can almost guarantee this stays under twenty minutes. Makhachev should get his hand raised inside of the first two rounds, likely via submission or strikes on the mat. I expect to see Makhachev challenging for the UFC Lightweight championship before the end of this year. Islam Makhachev by Round One Submission

Nick: Islam Makhachev is one of the more promising up-and-comers in the UFC. He is a decorated grappler as a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He pushes a serious pace and has enough wrestling ability to take almost anyone in this division down repeatedly. Makhachev has underrated striking, knockout power and is a clear draw for the promotion. He doesn’t throw much volume on the feet, but he can be highly effective when he does throw. He averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. His greatest strength is most certainly his grappling ability and he’ll look to lean on that part of his game here against a striker like Green. Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He has outstanding head movement, sound footwork, and he does excellent work building combinations behind his jab. Green usually wins fights out striking his opponents at boxing range, but he often favors showmanship over effective game planning and fight IQ. He’s an outstanding offensive boxer, but he tends to keep his hands down a lot more often than he should. Green is going to have to come out aggressive here. His only real chance is to catch Makachev with something early and if he doesn’t, he’s going to be spending a lot of time on his back. Seeing as Green is taking this fight on short notice, I question his ability to defend takedowns against a gifted Dagestani wrestler like Makhachev. If this were strictly a striking match Green would be very live for the upset. Unfortunately for him, Makhachev isn’t one to play with his food. I expect he secures early takedowns on Green here and works for that submission. Each of Makhachev’s last three wins have come via Submission. Islam Makhachev by Round One Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: Mark Richardson. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.