UFC Vegas 48 Predictions

UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs Hill – 2.19.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs Hill. After a stacked night of fights last weekend, we return to Las Vegas for a more modest card today. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 29-19-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
• Nick: 32-16-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 2-18-2022 at 8pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Mario Bautista -330 vs Jay Perrin +265

• Anthony: The card today opens at bantamweight with a fight between Jay Perrin and Mario Bautista. This is the UFC debut for Perrin who steps in on short notice for Khalid Taha. He has been active on the New England regional scene for quite some time. Perrin also had a CES fight booked for March that he was already in camp training for. Unfortunately, I believe the prospect to be seriously outgunned by Bautista on the feet. We have seen Bautista in the cage with a lot of tough opponents such as Miles Johns and Cory Sandhagen. He seems to be a rather complete fighter and accession up the ranks at bantamweight is surely in his future. The flashy striking is all well and good, but Bautista also has excellent fundamentals when it comes to offensive striking at range. He should make easy work of Perrin here, picking him apart. Mario Bautista by Round Two KO
• Nick: Bautista is a powerful striker at range, he does a great job managing distance and he uses feints well to set up his combos. While he’s most comfortable striking, he also has a brown belt in BJJ and a sneaky arsenal of submissions at his disposal. He has a powerful wrestling base, which he uses to control position against a wide range of opponents. He’s a lot stronger than he looks and he has an excellent grasp of weight distribution in scrambles. Bautista is coming off a tough knockout loss to Trevin Jones, but this matchup with Perrin represents a considerable step down in competition. Jay Perrin will be making his UFC debut here as the CES Bantamweight Champion. He’s well-rounded, but really hasn’t had much success against top level competition. He seems rough around the edges when you watch him on film. He usually comes out strong, but I don’t expect his cardio to hold up long here as he’s taking this fight on short notice. Perrin isn’t terrible, but this feels like a bit too much too soon for him here. I expect Bautista to weather the early pressure from Perrin and ultimately find a window for a finish. The line has gotten a bit out of hand, but I expect him to be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Mario Bautista by Round One Submission

Jonathan Pearce -350 vs Christian Rodriguez +280

• Anthony: Next is a bout at featherweight between Jonathan Pearce and Christian Rodriguez. This is yet another fight that came together at the last minute as Pearce’s opponent Austin Lingo withdrew due to injury. Rodriguez gets to make his UFC debut here but I think it is quite clearly going to be too tall a task. Rodriguez is a natural bantamweight and it is clear that Pearce is a much larger and more physical threat. In this fight, Pearce will be able to do whatever he wants on the mat. Rodriguez does not have the submission defense to last very long when Pearce gets into a dominant position. Rodriguez has only fought three opponents with winning records in his seven professional bouts. His last win came over an opponent that was 19-36. Given such a limited resume, it’s hard to expect anything good from Rodriguez here today. Jonathan Pearce by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Jonathan Pearce is a heavy favorite in this spot, coming off impressive back-to-back wins as an underdog. Pearce fights at a torrid pace and throws a lot of volume as a striker. He doesn’t carry much power in his individual shots, but he can hurt his opponents and put them away with consistent pressure and volume. He has a solid wrestling base and decent BJJ, which was fully on display in his most recent win over Omar Morales. Pearce’s grappling ability seems well developed considering he’s only had three fights in the UFC. He has no true stand out skill, but he’s extremely strong for a featherweight and he’s shown an ability to take advantage of the weaknesses of his lower-level opponents. Christian Rodriguez will be making his UFC debut here coming off back-to-back wins, including a Contender Series victory over Junior Cortez. He’s undefeated at 7-0, but outside of Cortez he really hasn’t faced any upper-level competition. Rodriguez is primarily a striker. He’s capable of utilizing a grappling heavy gameplan against low level competition, but he’s going to be outclassed by Pearce considerably here if this fight hits the mat. Rodriguez is tough and I expect he has a bright future in the promotion, but he’s fighting up a weight-class here against a much tougher opponent than he’s ever seen before. While this fight may play out closer than the line suggests, Pearce is the clear pick. Jonathan Pearce by Round Two Submission

Chad Anheliger -270 vs Jesse Strader +220

• Anthony: This should be a fun fight at bantamweight between Chad Anheliger and Jesse Strader. Six of the seven professional fights for Strader have ended inside of the distance. While he is not the most technical of fighters, Strader is a very strong bantamweight. Strader is well built with heavy hands and reach of 70-inches that allows him to close the distance quickly. This is the UFC debut for Anheliger who won a gutsy decision on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall. He was the Rise FC bantamweight champion and can certainly be considered the more technical fighter of these two. Anheliger offers more in terms of wrestling and diversifying his attacks than Strader. I completely understand why he’s the favorite in this spot, but I do think the odds are wider than they should be. These are two unproven fighters and neither has done anything to earn this much respect from the betting public. I think Strader is live to win this fight by knockout and that feels like a good value bet with the odds sitting so wide. Jesse Strader by Round One KO
• Nick: Chad Anheliger is coming off a Contender Series win over Muin Gafurov. He was a +340 underdog in that spot, so he was awarded a contract in spite of a somewhat underwhelming win via split decision. He’s 35 years old, so if he’s going to make any noise in the UFC he’ll need to secure some wins in a hurry. Jesse Strader is coming off an ugly first round KO loss in his UFC debut to Montel Jackson. He was a heavy underdog in that matchup and many felt he wouldn’t be on the roster had he not taken the fight on short notice. Strader is aggressive and can be dangerous offensively on the feet, but his defense is mediocre at best. He often overexerts himself in an effort to damage his opponents and leaves himself open to counters. I expect Anheliger to be the more dangerous fighter on the feet in this matchup. Strader will come out strong, but I expect he’ll be overconfident in exchanges and end up KO’d as a result. This is a low-level fight so I don’t want to overinvest, but Anheliger seems to be the much more talented of the two. Chad Anheliger by Round Two KO

Diana Belbita -120 vs Gloria de Paula +100

• Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s strawweight between Diana Belbita and Gloria de Paula. Belbita surprised a lot of people by beating Hannah Goldy in her most recent fight. She has been looking a lot more comfortable on the feet. De Paula will likely be searching for takedowns in order to win rounds here. She has been on a losing streak since debuting in the UFC and I think this is another tough matchup for her stylistically. Belbita trains with some excellent grapplers and should do well defending any takedowns attempted. I will sprinkle some money on her here at even odds, but probably would not touch this fight at anything close to -140. Diana Belbita by Decision
• Nick: Gloria de Paula was awarded a UFC contract for an impressive Contender Series win over Pauline Macias. She wasn’t able to score the finish in that spot, but she dominated everywhere the fight went and she weaponized her cardio as the fight wore on. Since that win, she has lost each of her fights under the UFC banner. She was KO’d brutally by Cheyanne Vlismas in her debut and out grappled in her last fight, a decision loss to veteran Jinh Yu Frey. Diana Belbita is coming off an impressive win over Hannah Goldy. She showed improved striking in that matchup and she now averages more than 6 significant strikes landed per minute. When she’s at her best, she works well behind her jab and uses it to set up straight shots and takedown entries. Belbita has a decent 66 percent takedown defense and de Paula has yet to secure a takedown in the UFC. I could absolutely see this fight going either way, but I’m leaning in favor of Belbita here. Her striking seems a bit more refined than de Paula’s does and I’m not confident in de Paula’s ability to consistently secure takedowns. A low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite. Diana Belbita by Decision

Chas Skelly -210 vs Marl Striegl +165

• Anthony: Here we will see featherweights do battle as Chas Skelly takes on Mark Striegl. Both men have an identical professional record of 18-3. Striegl is the former URCC Featherweight champion after accruing numerous wins fighting in the Philippines. He is a bit undersized in this matchup but Striegl is well rounded with an impressive sambo background. It’s tough to predict what we see from Skelly after a three-year absence, but he’s always been a high level fighter. By wrestling as the bigger and stronger man, he should secure top position on Striegl for a majority of this bout. Some scrambles may take place but Striegl is also capable of fishing for submissions off his back. It is hard to confidently bet Skelly at odds this wide but I do see him getting his hand raised here. Striegl’s best chance seems to be landing something lucky on his feet. Chas Skelly by Decision
• Nick: Chas Skelly is primarily a grappler. He has a solid base as a former NAIA wrestler and knack for taking the back and the necks of his opponents. Ten of his eighteen professional wins have come via submission. He’s going to be the much more experienced fighter in this matchup, but there are concerns here surrounding his conditioning and durability. He’s now 36 years-old, and according to interviews he’s considering retirement regardless of his outcome here. He hasn’t fought since 2019, so it’s really tough to know what to expect from him here. Like Skelly, Striegl is primarily a grappler. He’s a decorated sambo specialist, coming off a brutal KO loss in his UFC debut. Striegl fell to one of the division’s brightest contender’s in Said Nurmagomedov. He took that fight on short notice, so there really isn’t much at all we can learn from that loss. I’m really not all that impressed by what I’ve seen from Striegl, but there’s a lot of value on him here as a moderate underdog. He should have a slight advantage when this fight is on the feet and while I expect Skelly is the more talented grappler, I expect Striegl to be able to hang. I also like that Striegl recently shifted camps to the MMA Lab. This is a low confidence pick, but I like the value of the underdog here. Mark Striegl by Decision

Jessica-Rosa Clark -185 vs Stephanie Egger +145

• Anthony: Next is a women’s bantamweight bout between Stephanie Egger and Jessica-Rosa Clark. I have not been one to rush and bet on Clark in the past but this is a fight that she clearly should be favored. She seems to be in the best shape of her fighting career at 135 pounds and the past two wins have proven just that. Her striking is high volume and thrown with the intent to hurt her opponents. Clark also lands a lot in the clinch, a position Egger may try to test over the course of this bout. Judo and offensive grappling in general will be key to Egger getting her hand raised. I see her perhaps being successful in getting a few takedowns, but most of those exchanges will result in Egger eating damage. Clark should be able to outpace Egger early in this fight and become more dominant over the course of fifteen minutes. Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision
• Nick: Jessica-Rose Clark is a strong and fairly versatile striker. She lands more than 4 significant strikes per minute with a solid +.45 strike differential. She has made serious improvements in her grappling as well, as was evident in her most recent win over Joselyne Edwards. Egger’s resume in MMA leaves a lot to be desired, but she’s a decorated black belt in judo with a win over Ronda Rousey and several highly regarded judo tournament scalps to her name. She’s a strong grappler in the clinch, does a good job grinding on her opponents up against the cage and most of her success comes in closing the distance and neutralizing her opponents’ offensive weapons. She’s coming off a solid win over Shanna Young, but she really hasn’t found much success against top level competition. Egger certainly is feisty as an underdog here, but Clark is the more technical and dangerous striker. I feel Clark’s grappling has improved enough to make it difficult for Egger to thrive using judo and engaging in the clinch. As a result, this fight will most likely take place on the feet in open space, where Clark’s advantages should appear evident. Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision

David Onama -165 vs Gabriel Benitez +130

• Anthony: Closing the preliminary card is a great featherweight matchup between David Onama and Gabriel Benitez. Yesterday, the only fighter to miss weight was Benitez who came in two pounds over the limit. This is the second consecutive weight miss for Benitez and from the look of him while dehydrating, I think he returns to the lightweight division soon. Younger prospects have gotten to test themselves against Benitez as of late. He still throws lots of crisp strikes with high volume, but Benitez has been falling behind in fights rather quickly. Onama is another young prospect getting to face this sort of gatekeeper here. I am not as high on Onama as many others, but I did see a lot of good in his fight with Mason Jones. He will not be defending takedowns much against Benitez so we will see Onama get to fully showcase his striking ability here. James Krause and the team at Glory MMA and Fitness should have Onama prepped with a sound game plan for this matchup. I see him taking over late and beating down his overweight opponent here. Onama is physically stronger than Benitez and poses a dynamic challenge on the feet. David Onama by Round Three KO
• Nick: David Onama fights out of Glory MMA, under an excellent head coach in James Krause. He’s coming off a hard-fought loss to Mason Jones, in a fight he took on short notice as a +325 underdog. Even though Jones won unanimously on the scorecards, Onama’s stock undoubtedly rose as he made things difficult on Jones in that match-up. He fought up a weight class, showed excellent durability and continuously pressured his opponent. Benitez is a pressure striker who generally does a good job controlling the center of the octagon. He throws hard and heavy leg and body kicks, he mixes his jabs in well and he stays true to the Shooto Box style of rapidly moving in and out of his opponents range. Benitez is coming off an ugly knockout loss to Billy Quarantillo. Once known for his durability, it seems Benitez’s career is likely on the downturn. He missed weight by two pounds for this fight and looked drained on the scales. This is a close matchup on paper, but I expect the younger, more athletic Onama to secure a win here. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if Benitez won the first round, but I expect him to fade as this fight wears on. I see Onama mixing in some grappling here to win the second and third. David Onama by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Joaquin Buckley -170 vs Abdul Razak Alhassan +135

• Anthony: The main card opens with a fight between Joaquin Buckley and Abdul Razak Alhassan at middleweight. These are two very similar fighters given their immense power and tendency to fight at kickboxing range. Alhassan has not quite been himself since a two-year suspension that ended in 2020. After losing three straight fights, Alhassan bounced back with a win over Alessio Di Chirico in under twenty seconds in his most recent bout. Buckley is meanwhile 3-1 since his UFC debut after picking up another win at the end of last year. He is more technical on the feet than Alhassan and as of late he has varied his training to improve his skill set overall. This is very likely going to be a fight decided in the first round, when one of these two guys gets put to sleep. I believe Buckley is the rightful favorite in this spot and honestly would bet him at an even worse number than this. He is younger and I have yet to find a real reason to fade him, especially in a matchup like this. Joaquin Buckley by Round One KO
• Nick: This should be a really fun matchup for however long it lasts, between two athletic and powerful strikers. Buckley is by no means a fully developed talent, but his knockout ability makes him dangerous against almost anyone. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s still developing as a prospect, but at just 27-years old I expect him to continue to improve. Abdul Razak Alhassan is a monster of a man. He’s a physical specimen with massive power, as all eleven of his professional wins have come via KO. He has a solid Judo base and decent grappling ability, but his questionable conditioning has prevented him from leaning on that part of his game. I’m encouraged by Alhassan’s recent move to Elevation Fight Team, an excellent fight camp out of Denver. Training at a high elevation in thinner air should help improve his cardio moving forward. In spite of his excellent power, Buckley seems overly hesitant at times. He’s fairly predictable as a striker which should spell trouble for him here against a very dangerous Alhassan. Both of these fighters are live for the win via KO, but I prefer the value of Alhassan. He has the more impressive wins under the UFC banner and his recent shift in camps should help correct his conditioning. I expect he’ll be the aggressor early here and overwhelm his overrated opponent. Abdul Razak Alhassan by Round One KO

Nikolas Motta -185 vs Jim Miller +145

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Nikolas Motta and the veteran Jim Miller. While this is the UFC debut for Motta, Miller walks to the octagon today extending his all-time total for most appearances in the promotion’s history. The 38-year-old still seems to have a lot of fight left in him. Miller has been finished quite a few times before, but durability hasn’t been a big factor in his fights as of late. Motta is a dangerous striker so it will be crucial for Miller to avoid taking damage while on the feet. He’s a rather slow striker and I cannot imagine many exchanges at range going his way. Miller should be able to make this fight dirty though and certainly pour the pressure onto Motta early. I think with a smart game plan he should be able to find a control position in round one. Motta is going to carry power late and is still dangerous if able to survive this early barrage. I will be picking Miller simply due to his status as betting underdog. This fight is very close and I cannot justify backing Motta at odds this wide. I think Miller has success grappling Motta when things hit the mat. Jim Miller by Decision
• Nick: Nikolas Motta is a highly technical striker who uses all of his limbs well. He doesn’t carry much one-shot power, but he does a good job extending his combinations as a means to hurt his opponents on the feet. He’s coming off a solid Contender Series win over Joseph Lowry, but he’s never faced anyone on the level of Jim Miller. Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and eighteen of his thirty-three professional wins have come via submission. Miller’s clearest path to victory here is to put Gonzalez on his back and try to score a quick finish. His cardio has depleted over the years, so my one concern in backing him is Motta taking over as this fight wears on. Given Miller’s age, I wouldn’t be shocked if he fell in this spot. However, he’s the more technically sound striker and he’s going to be a nightmare for Motta here if this fight does hit the mat. I expect him to get this fight grounded early here where he’ll be live for a finish. Jim Miller by Round One Submission

Parker Porter -290 vs Alan Baudot +220

• Anthony: The featured bout is a scrap at heavyweight between Parker Porter and Alan Baudot. This is about as bad as it gets in terms of UFC matchmaking. These are low-level heavyweights with very few impressive wins between the two of them. Porter has really rounded into form as of late. After a debut loss to Chris Daukaus, Porter has rallied to win consecutive UFC bouts against Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman. High volume has been the key for Porter who overwhelms his opponents with a barrage of pressure all fight. Baudot is a lackluster striker and I think we are likely to see him get pieced up on his feet tonight. All of his wins have come against suspect competition. He’s of course a very big and dangerous heavyweight, but Baudot lacks much precision and relies on his strength and size to chase knockout victories. A favorite this size is warranted when we know he will be the far more active fighter. Porter also has a cardio advantage and I see him grinding out Baudot as we get into the bout’s latter half. Parker Porter by Round Two KO
• Nick: Based on interviews leading up to this match-up, it seems like Porter is coming out of the best camp of his career. There’s really nothing exciting about him when you watch him on film, but he does have power in his strikes and a surprisingly decent gas tank given his visible lack of athleticism. Porter has shown solid durability and surprisingly technical boxing ability so far in the UFC. Many felt he was only awarded a roster spot as a replacement fighter due to COVID, but he’s coming off back-to-back wins and he’ll look to build on that momentum here as a heavy favorite. Alan Baudot has a decent Judo base, but he hasn’t really shown an ability to lean on his grappling strengths against larger opponents. He has decent technical ability when striking at range, but he has seemingly terrible durability. Most of his opponents have found success just pressuring through his shots to close distance. Porter is a pressure style fighter, so I expect him to once again cruise to victory once he can close distance on Baudot. He’ll be the more dangerous and technical striker on the feet, and if he can secure a takedown he’ll be live for a submission as well. In spite of Baudot’s judo experience, he seems like a fish out of water once he’s on his back or taken down. I really like Porter to win here as he has the better cardio, durability and overall game. Parker Porter by Round Two KO

Kyle Daukaus -280 vs Jaime Pickett +230

• Anthony: The co-main event should be a fun matchup between Kyle Daukaus and Jamie Pickett. With this fight coming together on short notice, it will be contested at a catchweight of 195 pounds. Daukaus hasn’t fought since an accidental headbutt ended his fight with Kevin Holland last October. I think he’s still a bright prospect in this division, but a bit of shine has been taken off the Daukaus name with their recent performances. This matchup is a favorable one for him as he holds a decisive grappling advantage over Pickett. Daukaus is a black belt in BJJ while Pickett has just a brown belt under coach John Salter. We have yet to see Daukaus lock up a UFC submission but his back control and grappling transitions have been on full display as of late. Pickett is not afraid of initiating clinch exchanges but he will certainly need to keep Daukaus off of him in order to win this fight. Anything can happen on the feet with these two rather awkward strikers, but I think this fight gets decided rather quickly when things hit the mat. Daukaus is a fighter I have confidence betting on here. Kyle Daukaus by Decision
• Nick: Kyle Daukaus’ striking is still far from technical, but he is well-versed enough to stand and trade when he needs to. His greatest strength is his offensive grappling ability as a BJJ black belt, but so far in the UFC I’ve been most impressed by his chin, cardio and overall grit. Pickett carries serious power on the feet, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He absorbs more than five strikes per minute and he’s starting to develop a reputation as a slow starter. He’s coming off a pair of solid wins, but those both came against worse opponents than Daukaus. Additionally, he’s taking this fight on short notice. Knowing Pickett is most dangerous on the feet, I expect Daukaus to shoot for an early takedown and take this fight to the mat. As long as he takes his time and doesn’t spend too much time trading in exchanges, this feels like an excellent spot to back the favorite. Kyle Daukaus by Round Two Submission

Jamahal Hill -250 vs Johnny Walker +200

• Anthony: Our main event is a great matchup at light heavyweight as Johnny Walker takes on rising star Jamahal Hill. This fight was originally set for three rounds but will be extended to five after filling the role of our originally scheduled main. Hill bounced back in a big way from his first career loss, knocking out Jimmy Crute in his most recent performance. His success largely comes from very crisp striking out of the southpaw stance. He connects on more than half of the strikes that he throws and lands at a high clip of 7.45 significant strikes per minute. He is certainly talented, but I argue Hill is not quite the wizard on the feet many sharps have been touting. The wins are not against impressive names and Walker could be considered his toughest test yet. Walker is an opponent with advantages over Hill in reach, height and strength. He can generate knockouts from numerous positions and is going to best Hill during any exchanges in the clinch. Hill should be favored but the current odds are completely out of hand. Walker is an easy pick for me at this price given the value in his numerous paths to victory. If he can survive Hill early, I see him either landing a knockout or making this a long and rather boring fight. Johnny Walker by Round Four KO

Nick: Each of Jamahal Hill’s last four wins have come via knockout. He’s averaging nearly eight strikes landed per minute. He has outstanding speed and footwork for a light heavyweight. He works well behind his jab and does an excellent job mixing power into his lengthy combinations. He’s a gifted counter-striker, carrying an impressive +3.77 strike differential so far in the UFC. He’s coming off a massive win by KO over Jimmy Crute, and many feel he’s on his way to being a top ranked fighter at 205. Walker was once considered a future title contender as well, but his stock has plummeted over the past couple of years. He’s extremely gifted in terms of athletic ability, but his Fight IQ leaves a lot to be desired. He carries serious power, but he’s very hittable in exchanges. He showed a more measured approach in his most recent fight against Thiago Santos, but he only landed 48 significant strikes across five rounds. When Walker is at his best, he embraces chaos and chases KOs. It’s a volatile approach, but almost all of his success has been found in this manner. He’s nowhere near as refined technically as HIll is and his lack of volume makes it almost impossible to win on the scorecards. Walker’s one real shot here is to blitz early catch HIll with something flashy and unpredictable.. That being said, I don’t expect him to try to execute that type of game plan under his new coach John Kavanaugh. The line has gotten too wide here so there isn’t much value left on Hill as a moneyline favorite. However, he can be had for near plus money if you bet him via KO. I expect that’s how he wins here against a sloppier and much lower-volume striker in Walker. Jamahal Hill by Round Two KO

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS