UFC Vegas 47: Hermansson vs Strickland – 2.5.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 47: Hermansson vs Strickland. The world leader in combat sports is back with live action fights after a hiatus last weekend. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we’ll keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our reasoning for every pick, as records will not reflect confidence. We’ll be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 14-7-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
- Nick: 13-8-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)
*Fight odds were last updated 2-4-2022 at 7pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST
Denys Bondar -280 vs Malcolm Gordon +230
- Anthony: The card opens with a flyweight bout between Denys Bondar and Malcolm Gordon. This is the UFC debut for Bondar who has spent most of his career fighting in southeast Asia. He is a powerful wrestler and grappler with experience up weight against 135 pounders as well. While his resume lacks big names and notable wins, he is still a lot to deal with down at flyweight based on his strength and physique alone. Malcolm Gordon has done little to impress me so far through three fights in the octagon. He seems to compromise durability a bit to make the weight in this division, evidenced by the two knockout losses he suffered in 2020. The only upside to Gordon’s game is his offensive grappling and I think a wrestler like Bondar completely nullifies that here. I won’t be betting on Bondar with odds this wide, but I do think he quite convincingly disposes of Gordon today. I imagine the newcomer takes Gordon’s roster spot moving forward with a victory. Denys Bondar by Round Three KO
- Nick: Denys Bondar will be making his UFC debut here, having not lost a fight since 2017. This matchup against Gordon represents a considerable step-up in competition for him, but Gordon is arguably one of the least skilled fighters on the roster. He may be coming off a win, but it came over another mediocre opponent in Francisco Figueiredo. In many of Gordon’s fights, a very weak chin is evident. He seems to be visibly damaged in most striking exchanges and while he does appear to be well-rounded, he really hasn’t shown the standout skills it takes to hang on the roster. Bondar’s greatest strength is certainly his power, particularly his powerful left hand. It seems like a very favorable piece of matchmaking for the debutant. The UFC is hoping to boost Bondar’s stock here. If I’m betting him, and I probably am, I prefer to take him inside the distance. Regardless, Bondar is the pick. I expect him to outclass Gordon no matter where this fight goes and find a window for the finish early. Denys Bondar by Round One KO
Phillip Rowe -140 vs Jason Witt +120
- Anthony: Next we have a scrap at welterweight between Phillip Rowe and Jason Witt. This is a very weak fight on paper simply due to the limited ceiling of both men. Witt earned a massive win over Bryan Barberena in his most recent bout, cashing as a +220 underdog over the veteran. His wrestling is solid but in that fight like many others we saw Witt easily shook by clean strikes on the feet. All seven of his losses have come by finish, proving that durability is a major flaw of his. While Rowe is also nothing special, he at least has some physical attributes that give him an edge in this matchup. Rowe is extremely tall for welterweight, standing at 6’3 and holding ten inches of reach over his opponent. When this fight is standing Rowe should have no problem letting his hands fly and landing combinations at a safe range. The clear gameplan for Witt will be wrestling early and often, but I think that lanky frame will also help Rowe sprawl and control where this bout gets contested. It’s a tough fight to predict but all the value is on Rowe in my opinion. These odds have tightened all week and I believe that fading Witt at close to even money is never going to be a bad bet. Phillip Rowe by Round Two KO
- Nick: In many ways, this is a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Jason Witt has a strong wrestling base, but we haven’t really seen him find much success against top level competition. He is coming off the biggest win of his career, a controversial decision over Bryan Barberena. He looked good in that spot but he was rocked several times on the feet and many actually felt Barberena should have been awarded the win. Witt is certainly going to have a grappling advantage in this bout, but his questionable durability could prove problematic against a rangy striker like Rowe. Rowe has a ridiculous 80.5-inch reach as one of the tallest welterweights on the UFC roster. He’s coming off an impressive win over Orion Cosce via knockout, but Cosce was completely gassed in that fight. He dominated Rowe early but used far too much energy trying to chase a finish. Prior to his Dana White’s Contender Series win over Leon Shabazyan, Rowe had never faced an opponent with a winning professional record. He carries a shaky 50 percent takedown defense and Witt averages more than six takedowns per fifteen minutes. He has a very clear path to victory. Under the tutelage of coach James Krause, I expect Witt to stay out of danger and lean on his positional grappling to grind out a decision. His chin is an undeniably concern, but I prefer a value bet on the underdog. Jason Witt by Decision
Jailton Almeida -420 vs Danilo Marques +330
- Anthony: Here we have a light heavyweight fight between Danilo Marques and UFC debutant Jailton Almeida. Almeida impressed me a lot in his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series last year. He fought aggressively against a then undefeated Nasrudin Nasrudinov, controlling him on the mat and winning by second round submission. Almeida is a black belt that has practiced jiu jitsu since the age of eleven. Marques is an opponent that is usually going to engage on the mat too, but as the betting line indicates Almeida is the superior grappler. Almeida doesn’t throw much in combination on the feet but does land strikes with considerable power. He has finished every one of his professional wins and I see a similar outcome for him here in his debut. Marques will likely attempt to keep this fight standing for as long as he can but the takedown entries for Almeida seem to be rather polished. He should get this to the ground early and find himself a stoppage victory. Jailton Almeida by Round One Submission
- Nick: This is an intriguing matchup between two fighters with similar strengths. Both are BJJ blackbelts, which means both are extremely dangerous when it comes to their offensive grappling. Danilo Marques has been working out of an excellent camp in Kings MMA. He’s training with the likes of Beneil Dariush, Kelvin Gastelum and Marvin Vettori. He seems fairly one dimensional as a persistent grappler, so I expect he’s running into a stylistic nightmare here against Almeida. Jailton Almeida will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over a highly regarded prospect. Nasrudin Nasrudinov is a talented wrestler, but Almeida overpowered him. He showed excellent weight control and sweep ability to win most grappling exchanges in that matchup. He fought smart, mixing in front kicks as a means to control distance on the feet which could once again help him control the pace of this fight today. Marques has certainly faced the higher level of competition, but his preferred path to victory is likely blocked here by the more athletic and explosive Almeida. No matter where this goes, I see Almeida as having the advantage. The experience advantage for Marques suggests the line is a bit too wide, but Almeida is the rightful favorite. This could be competitive early, but Almeida’s athleticism should eventually shine through. Jailton Almeida by Round Two KO
Alexis Davis -240 vs Julija Stoliarenko +200
- Anthony: This should be a competitive bout at women’s bantamweight as Alexis Davis faces Julija Stoliarenko. Davis is a veteran of the promotion having fought in the UFC since 2013. She has shared the cage with a lot of great fighters and former contenders but is currently a mere 1-4 in her last five bouts. Age is clearly catching up to her and I don’t think she poses much of a threat compared to what she once did. However, her opponent Julija Stoliarenko remains winless in the UFC after two fights. The Lithuanian spends most of her time in the Gi practicing Brazilian jiu jitsu. She is really only dangerous when she grabs hold of a limb, finishing all but one of her professional victories via armbar. This is probably going to be a sloppy fight on the feet and a very tense one if these ladies ever hit the mat. While Stoliarenko has a chance at hitting her signature move, Davis should be competent enough defensively to avoid it here. Her time rolling with the Diaz brothers and Team Cesar Gracie make me confident she can defend the most basic submission there is. Alexis Davis by Decision
- Nick: Alexis Davis has a dramatic experience advantage in this spot. She’s a well-rounded fighter, coming off a hard-fought loss to Pannie Kianzad. She is certainly past her prime, but she remains a good barometer for talent as a true gatekeeper in this division. Davis does a good job mixing leg kicks into her striking exchanges. She is a proficient grappler and against lower-level opponents, she’s capable of finding a submission finish as well. Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with good enough BJJ to score her favorite submission from a variety of positions. That being said, it is going to be difficult for her to find that opening here against a savvy veteran. Stoliarenko has been mostly dominated so far in the UFC, dropping fights to Julia Avila and Yana Kunitskaya. She will have an athleticism advantage here, but she seems far too willing to eat shots in exchanges. Similar criticisms can be made regarding Davis, but Davis throws nearly twice as many strikes per minute and her striking defense is 10 percent better as well. Given Davis’ age, I really don’t want to overinvest in her here. However, I’m not sure Stoliarenko belongs in the UFC. Alexis Davis by Decision
Marc-Andre Barriault -115 vs Chidi Njokuani -105
- Anthony: Next is a clash of middleweight fighters as Chidi Njokuani makes his UFC debut against Marc-Andre Barriault. Following in the footsteps of his brother Anthony, Chidi Njokuani finally gets a bout under the UFC banner here. A huge knockout victory on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall secured him this contract. Chidi Bang Bang has been a staple of Bellator since 2015, picking up wins over names like Melvin Guillard and Andre Fialho. Njokuani is an explosive fighter with some very polished skills, but this matchup with Barriault is a tough one stylistically. The nickname Powerbar fits Barriault well as his forward pressure and cardio has proven to be a nightmare for opponents. He is currently on a three fight win streak, evolving drastically since a disasterous 2019 that saw him go 0-3. The Canadian doesn’t hit as hard as Njokuani but I think the difference in volume ends up deciding this fight. Striking in the clinch and against the cage will drain the gas tank of Njokuani and leave Barriault the much fresher fighter if we see a round three. He has never been finished before and I expect the chin to hold up once again here. Marc-Andre Barriault by Decision
- Nick: We have what could be a fun scrap here between two aggressive strikers at middleweight. Barriault pushes a serious pace. He has decent power and does a good job putting pressure on his opponents. His durability allows him to easily close distance and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges and uses strength over technique. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come by absorbing damage early and taking over late. Chidi Njokuani will be making his UFC debut here, but at 33-years old he already carries quality professional experience. He is an extremely gifted striker who does his best work at range. He showed in his Contender Series win over Mario Sousa that he can be an effective grappler as well. There is absolutely no denying Njokuani will have a technical advantage here, but Barriault’s pressure is likely to spell trouble for him as it seems he’s not nearly as effective a striker off his back foot. Additionally, Njokuani has had cardio issues in the past. He’s going to look good here if he can keep Barriault at range, but even if he succeeds early I don’t expect Njokuani to keep pace for a full fifteen minutes. Marc-Andre Barriault by Decision
Hakeem Dawodu -170 vs Michael Trizano +145
- Anthony: We get a clash of talented featherweights next as Hakeem Dawodu takes on Mike Trizano. I don’t expect either one of these fighters to initiate grappling exchanges, making this a prime candidate for Fight of the Night. Trizano likes to blitz forward or apply intelligent pressure to opponents depending on the night. After taking some time to recover from injury, he proved to be an evolved fighter securing the win over Ludovit Klein in his last time out. Crowding the kicker and fighting at close range allowed Trizano to cash a +190 underdog ticket, but Dawodu is better than Klein at placing singular, high power strikes. Trizano will be eating a large portion of counters on his way into the fire here and Dawodu is one of the few featherweights that can really punish guys. He makes a tough cut to get into this weight class and I think the physical advantage he holds over Trizano is quite clear. The only reason I am nervous about betting on Dawodu is because of the low volume he throws. Trizano could easily double the output of Dawodu here and I find it hard to trust the judges if that is the case. The Canadian will need some big punches to land if he wants to secure a win by decision. However, he also has a decent chance at landing the knockout early. Hakeem Dawodu by Decision
- Nick: We have what should be a fun matchup here between two fighters who prefer to stand and trade. Dawodu is the more powerful striker of the two and likely the more technically sound as well. That being said, Trizano does an excellent job putting pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight moving backwards. Trizano is coming off an impressive upset win over a highly regarded prospect in Ludovit Klein, which came in his first fight since 2019. It seems evident Trizano has made considerable improvements during his nearly two-year layoff starting in 2019. However, it’s still tough to know exactly what level he’s going to be at moving forward. Hakeem Dawodu is coming off a hard-fought loss to undefeated Movsar Evloev. Prior to that matchup he had strung together five consecutive victories, but it’s worth noting three of those five came via split decision. The biggest knock on Dawodu is that as talented as he is, he waits for fights to come to him and he often fails to put out significant volume. He does a good job mixing up his strikes, but he’s primarily a counter striker. In this particular fight, that should play to his advantage. With Trizano constantly coming forward, I expect him to walk into Dawodu’s shots and take the more significant damage. I really like the ‘over’ props as well as ‘Fight to go the Distance’ here as both fighters are durable. If Dawodu is overly hesitant I could see Trizano pulling off the upset. However, I think Trizano ends up wearing more damage in the end. Hakeem Dawodu by Decision
Miles Johns -190 vs John Castaneda +160
- Anthony: The preliminary card closes with a bantamweight scrap as John Castaneda takes on Miles Johns. Castaneda got his first win in the octagon one year ago, knocking out the veteran Eddie Wineland. He’s a gritty fighter who put on a lot of solid fights under the Combate banner. At the age of 30 though, his upside in this division is rather limited. Miles Johns is the far more exciting prospect with an impressive 12-1 record. He earned a Performance of the Night bonus in his previous two fights, beating Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos both by knockout. Those finishes each came in the third round and showcased just how solid a gas tank he has. Johns has very solid grappling given his collegiate wrestling background, but as of late his boxing has developed into something fierce. The team at Fortis MMA is really helping Johns hone his skills and I believe the future is bright for him. Castaneda is a well-rounded, decision fighter that can probably survive late into this fight. However, Miles Johns is likely going to land the cleaner shots and hold a firm grip on the judges’ scorecards. I’m confident in him getting the victory here. Miles Johns by Decision
- Nick: Miles Johns is primarily a grappler. He’s shown high level wrestling ability with creative entries for takedowns and his striking seems to improve every time we see him in the cage. He’s coming off back-to-back wins by KO, but he’s still far from polished in terms of his technical ability. He often leaves himself open to counterpunches and he doesn’t always finish his combinations offensively. Still, he’s extremely athletic and his well-rounded game makes him a high upside fighter as he continues to improve. John Castaneda is coming off an impressive knockout win over Eddie Wineland. He put a lot of volume on Wineland in that bout, but there’s really no denying Castaneda recorded that win against a fighter far past his prime. Castaneda does a good job switching stances. He’s a technical striker that manages his gas tank well. He’s a competent grappler too, but I expect he’ll be considerably outmatched here if Johns starts looking for takedowns. The line feels too wide in this spot. Both fighters seem to have some upside, but neither has really proven they can consistently succeed at this level. That being said, I see Johns as further along in his development. He should be able to match Castaneda on the feet and score the timely takedowns he needs to eventually secure a decision. Miles Johns by Decision
Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST
Julian Erosa -310 vs Steven Peterson +250
- Anthony: Our main card opens with a featherweight fight between Julian Erosa and Steven Peterson. On the scales Friday, Peterson was the only fighter to miss weight after coming in three pounds heavy. This was an issue for him in his last bout as well, a match with Chase Hooper that he ultimately won. Erosa seemed angry about Peterson’s lack of professionalism but it’s highly unlikely it affects this fight’s outcome. Erosa is a brawler that will keep things standing with Peterson for as long as this one lasts. He already has quality wins over much better featherweight competition, so beating the volatile Peterson should not be too tall a task. Eight of the last nine fights for Erosa ended inside of the distance and this will likely prove to be the same. I think he’s a far superior striker than Peterson and the weight difference will not be a factor if things never hit the mat. If anything, carrying the extra few pounds could sap Peterson’s cardio as he eats punishment to the head and rather soft body. Julian Erosa by Round One KO
- Nick: Erosa is well rounded, with twelve professional wins by submission as well as eleven by knockout. His greatest quality as a fighter may be his willingness to eat shots to throw them. He’s very game and gritty, but his durability has been in question at times as six of his ten professional losses have come via knockout. He’s coming off an impressive win over Charles Jourdain, and he has additional notable wins over tough featherweights like Sean Woodon, Nate Landwher and Jamall Emmers. Like Erosa, Steven Peterson is primarily a brawler. He’s more than willing to eat shots to throw them, but we really haven’t seen him find much success against a high level of competition. He’s coming off a solid win over Chase Hooper, but he missed weight for this matchup and he really doesn’t seem to carry the type of power that it would take to pull an upset here. The durability is a bit of a concern, but in this particular fight, I see Erosa being the better fighter everywhere. He likely breaks down Peterson in the early rounds and finds a finish late. Julian Erosa by Round Two KO
Tresean Gore -150 vs Bryan Battle +125
- Anthony: Next we have a fight at middleweight between Tresean Gore and Bryan Battle. These two fighters were featured on TUF Season 29 and scheduled to fight in the show’s finale. Gore ended up suffering a knee injury that forced him to withdraw and as a result, Battle beat Gilbert Urbina to be named The Ultimate Fighter. This bout will decide the true champion now that Gore has made a full recovery. He is a lower volume striker than Battle, but has extremely powerful kickboxing. We will likely see Gore sitting and waiting to land accurate strikes and counters over the course of this fight. Battle would be wise to test Gore’s grappling in this matchup but closing the distance to secure takedowns is where he will be the most vulnerable. I see Gore hitting him hard during these exchanges and at least winning moments if unable to secure the finish. This will surely become a sweat if the fight goes fifteen minutes, but I believe Gore to be the rightful favorite here. If he is able to keep things standing I expect the power advantage on the feet to be evident. Tresean Gore by Round Two KO
- Nick: This is a bout between two fighters that were introduced to us on the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter. Bryan Battle is rough around the edges, but he seems effective pretty much everywhere. He’s a powerful striker that can string together effective combinations. Battle is most dangerous in the clinch, but he showed in his TUF semi-final win over Andre Petroski that he’s a talented grappler as well. Tresean Gore has serious power in his strikes. He comes into this matchup with a suspect 3-0 professional record, but there’s really no denying he has a striking advantage in this spot. The key for me in picking this fight is Battle’s durability. He’s shown in many of his recent fights that he can eat a lot of shots. That will be important against Gore, who I expect to look like the better fighter early. As long as he doesn’t get caught with anything big in the first round, I see Battle’s advantages in both experience and cardio shining through. It’s also worth noting that this is Gore’s first fight since suffering a knee injury on TUF, so he may not be at his best. I don’t want to be overinvested in a spot like this but all the value seems to be on the underdog. Battle is more experienced with better all-around skills. Bryan Battle by Decision
Brendan Allen -420 vs Sam Alvey +330
- Anthony: This is a short notice matchup at 205 pounds between Brendan Allen and Sam Alvey. After Phil Hawes dropped out, Alvey’s original opponent, Allen quickly stepped forward to accept this opportunity. The bout will take place in the light heavyweight division although Allen and Alvey are both used to making middleweight. However, Alvey is the bigger man with a history fighting at this weight class. Allen was a highly touted prospect not all that long ago but a few knockout losses have taken the shine off his name. He is a very good grappler and certainly has the edge over Alvey in that department. Alvey always has a chance at landing and hurting his opponents but I honestly believe him to be too slow at this age to keep the offensive minded Allen off of his back. If he’s able to keep things standing for a while then we actually could see a competitive fight, but it’s been a very long time without a win for Smile’n Sam. There’s no way I can suggest betting Allen at these inflated odds but I do think he ends up being the one with his hand raised at the end of fifteen minutes. The margin of error for Alvey is too slim for even a sprinkle at these odds. Brendan Allen by Decision
- Nick: Brendan Allen is stepping in on less than a week’s notice here, as Alvey’s originally scheduled opponent was forced to pull out due to injury. Eight of Allen’s fifteen professional wins have come via submission. He has excellent BJJ with a solid wrestling base, but lately he seems most content to stand and trade on the feet. His striking continues to show improvements, which isn’t surprising as he recently shifted to an excellent camp in Sanford MMA. Sam Alvey is a tough and savvy veteran, but he looks slow in most exchanges. He can still clear out the lower-level fighters in this division, but more often than not he seems to be a stepping stone for the UFC to use to build up prospects. He’s been in a lot of close matchups, but he’s winless across his last seven fights. It is worth noting that Allen has recently lost to two of Alvey’s teammates in Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis. However, Alvey no longer seems to be on that level. If Allen fights intelligently here, he should cruise to a win. He’s overrated as a prospect but still a much better fighter than Alvey at this point in his career. Brendan Allen by Round One Submission
Shavkat Rakhmonov -230 vs Carlston Harris +190
- Anthony: Tonight’s featured bout should produce fireworks at welterweight as Carlston Harris does battle with the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov. I predict this to be the most exciting fight on the card for however long it may last. Rakhmonov has found the finish in every professional bout thus far, looking like a future star in this division. All of the technical skills are there as he pairs a polished kickboxing attack with dangerous offensive grappling. The native of Kazakhstan trains there primarily, but also gets work in stateside with the great team at Sanford MMA. Harris lacks the raw skill of his opponent but makes up for it with experience and unorthodox techniques. He’s won nine of his last ten bouts with a resume far stronger than that of Rakhmonov. Harris has fast hands but likes to throw looping shots from strange angles. The more technical Rakhmonov may be stymied a bit if Harris fights with high pressure from the jump here. Harris is also a BJJ brown belt with good body lock and trip takedowns. His best submissions come from defensive positions and given the grappling acumen of Rakhmonov it would not shock me if this fight gets brought to the mat. While I do believe Rakhmonov to be a future welterweight contender, these odds are very wide and my money is going on the underdog. This is the toughest opponent Rakhmonov has faced and I wouldn’t be shocked to see his perfect record get tarnished today. Carlston Harris by Round One Submission
- Nick: Rakhmonov comes into this fight undefeated. The 27-year-old Sambo specialist already has notable victories over Da Un Jung, Michel Prazeres and Cowboy Oliviera. He’s a dangerous grappler on the mat with a solid wrestling base and creative BJJ. His striking looks a lot more developed than you’d normally see out of a guy so new to the UFC, but he relies on precision more than power. Rakhmonov is very tall, but he has a strong judo base, effective sweep takedowns and looks sharp in scrambles as well. The one knock on Rakhmonov is that he is hittable, but he’s shown solid durability and I expect we continue to see improvements in his defense over time. Harris is 34-years old, coming off back-to-back wins over Christian Aguilera and Impa Kasanganay. He was signed to the UFC off a huge upset victory over Saygid Izagakhmaev at UAE Warriors 15. He seems to be fairly well rounded with a solid chin, impressive cardio and a powerful enough wrestling base to work opponents to the mat where he does his best work. I expect Harris to look good here, but Rakhmonov to weather an early storm and take over as this fight gets late. Harris is explosive, but I question how well his cardio will hold up if he can’t take Rakhmonov out early. This is another fight where the line feels a bit wider than it should, but Rakhmonov is the pick. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Round Two Submission
Punahele Soriano -190 vs Nick Maximov +160
- Anthony: The co-main event is a great matchup at middleweight as Punahele Soriano fights Nick Maximov. These guys share a similar level of experience with each debuting as professionals just four years ago. Soriano secured two knockout wins in the UFC before losing to Brendan Allen last July, tarnishing his perfect record. The team at Xtreme Couture has developed him into a well-rounded fighter, but perhaps the best attribute of Soriano is his powerful hands. It will be a clash of striker and grappler here as Maximov looks to extend his winning streak and go 7-0. He’s a young athlete brought up under the tutelage of Team Cesar Gracie and the Nick Diaz Academy. His boxing continues to develop on the feet but his grappling pressure is the classic Russian style we’re accustomed to seeing. It’s imperative for Maximov to bring Soriano to the mat and hunt for that submission win there. The placement so high on the card indicates to me that the UFC brass believe they have another star on their hands. I certainly think that Maximov is a live underdog and at odds this wide I am happy to put my money where my mouth is. All of his jiu jitsu experience should pay off big time for him in this spot. Nick Maximov by Round Two Submission
- Nick: These are two relatively inexperienced fighters so it’s a bit surprising that this matchup is being billed as the co-main event. Nick Maximov is a product of the Nick Diaz Academy. He’s an extremely strong grappler with a seemingly infinite arsenal of submissions at his disposal. While he certainly carries some hype coming into this matchup, we really haven’t seen him tested extensively against a high level of competition, especially on the feet. He’s coming off a win in his UFC debut, but he barely squeaked out a decision in that spot against a short-notice debutant in Cody Brundage. Soriano’s greatest strength is his powerful left hand. Additionally, for someone lacking significant professional experience he looks fairly polished in exchanges. While Soriano is certainly most dangerous on the feet, he’s an underrated grappler. He was an All-American wrestler in high school, so I see his advantages on the feet here being greater than Maximov on the mat. Soriano has enough power that Maximov should know better than to sit in the pocket with him. Still, I expect he’s going to struggle to find the takedowns he needs here. I could see this one going either way and I feel Maximov may have a higher ceiling as a prospect. However, Soriano is my pick. He should be able to keep this standing long enough to score a timely knockout. Punahele Soriano by Round Two KO
Sean Strickland -220 vs Jack Hermansson +180
- Anthony: The night closes at middleweight when Jack Hermansson faces Sean Strickland in the main event. These are two high level contenders in the division with Strickland on a particularly impressive streak as of late. He was on a short hiatus due to a rather serious leg injury, but since his return we’ve gotten to see the very best of him. Strickland is really just a boxer with very few wrinkles in his approach. A usual Strickland fight takes place on the feet and features his jab and combinations usually messing up opponents. The high volume that Strickland lands with is a key factor in dictating pace and winning rounds on the judge’s scorecards. Hermansson is an unorthodox striker that offers a smaller threat than most middleweights on the feet. His bread is buttered in the grappling department as he can often control or tap opponents with ease. I worry that a Hermansson heel hook or Achilles lock could land and end this fight early, but it seems more likely that Strickland busts up Hermansson on the feet as this gets into rounds three, four and five. The takedowns may land early for Hermansson, but I trust Strickland’s cardio and believe he can take control of this bout late if he needs to. Sean Strickland by Decision
- Nick: Strickland comes into this fight on an impressive five-fight win streak. He’s an extremely talented boxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering against a wide range of strikers, and his technical boxing ability is amongst the best of the division. He has excellent footwork and head movement, which is evident by his solid 66 percent striking defense. Strickland pushes a serious pace, and we saw in his last fight against Uriah Hall that he can break his opponents down on the feet with very high volume and precision. While he’s certainly not a power puncher, Strickland averages nearly 5.5 significant strikes landed per minute. His opponent, Jack Hermansson, is one of the best offensive grapplers in the UFC at middleweight. His style is fairly unconventional, but he has more brute strength than most do on the mat so he can pull off submissions that others couldn’t. He can look awkward on the feet, but he throws powerful and accurate strikes and he does an excellent job circling away from the power of his opponents. His awkward style makes him a difficult target to find, but against such a technically gifted boxer like Strickland he’d be wise to try to keep things grounded as much as possible. Hermansson is certainly live for an upset here, particularly by way of submission. However, Strickland is an underrated grappler in his own right so I see his advantages on the feet being greater than Hermansson on the mat. I expect Strickland to keep pressure on Hermansson here. He may get taken down early, but his defensive grappling acumen should keep him out of danger. Even if Hermansson is winning the early rounds, Strickland seems durable enough to take over in the fourth and fifth. Sean Strickland by Round Five KO
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS