Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s Future Must Be Determined Post-Lockout
What should the Toronto Blue Jays do with outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.? Trade him? Move him to a different position? Change his role entirely?
These are critical questions the front office must answer over the final few months this winter.
Before anything further can happen, obviously, Major League Baseball and the Players Union must agree on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. But considering very little progress has been made over these last few months, the off-season likely won’t resume for some time.
Once it does, Toronto – along with the other 29 organizations – will resume their roster construction in hopes of transforming this current group into a playoff contender. The Jays’ outfield remains untouched from last season, but nevertheless features plenty of unanswered questions.
As currently constructed, a mix of George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez and Gurriel Jr. are projected to serve as the club’s starting outfield in 2022. Beyond this trio, veteran Randal Grichuk will likely transition into a part-time role, acting as the fourth outfielder on most gamedays.
For a ballclub hoping to return to the postseason for the first time since 2016, standing pat with these four players doesn’t put this team in the best position to succeed. In fact you could argue that moving on from Gurriel Jr. altogether might be the most effective way to make a significant upgrade.
Despite becoming a fan favourite over his four seasons in the majors, the 28-year-old has largely struggled to put together a complete effort at the highest level, especially at the plate.
From an offensive standpoint, there’s no doubt the right-hander possesses tons of potential. However, that hasn’t translated into sustainable success thus far. Over the course of 2021, the former top prospect enjoyed some strong moments, but for the most part, was unable to serve as anything more than a slightly above-average contributor.
Though Gurriel Jr. compiled a career-high 541 plate appearances, he finished with just 21 home runs, 84 RBIs, a .190 ISO, .305 BABIP, 107 wRC+ score and slashed .276/.319/.466.
Without question, putting balls in play remains one of the 6’4” outfielder’s biggest strengths, although his plate discipline leaves much to be desired. Granted, his strikeout totals weren’t alarming last season, as he posted an 18.9 strikeout percentage, but extending the strike zone had a drastic impact on his poor walk percentage.
Thanks to his 34.3 per cent chase rate, which put him in the 10th percentile, Gurriel Jr. worked himself out of favourable counts more often than you’d like to see. In turn, he earned a measly 5.9 per cent walk rate, placing him in the 13th percentile.
Even with his lack of walks, the former top prospect still registered a 3.0 offensive WAR rating, helping him compile a 1.5 fWAR rating – his highest since ‘19.
Based on these results, Gurriel Jr. certainly features a decent amount of upside as a hitter, albeit, as someone positioned in the bottom half of the line-up. Having said that, most of his offensive success has largely been overshadowed by his defensive woes.
Since transitioning to the outfield in ‘19, the Cuban native has proven to be a major liability in left field, particularly when it comes to his range. While he owns an extremely strong and accurate arm, his struggles chasing down fly balls has plagued his overall performance.
Across 1,913 1/3 career innings, Gurriel Jr. has recorded an alarming -8.2 RngR (range runs above average) and a -13 OAA rating (outs above average). Not to mention, he’s coming off a season where he finished tied for the second-worst OAA rating (-8) among all outfielders in the majors.
Herein lies Toronto’s dilemma: Would they be better served to keep Gurriel Jr. and limit his opportunities in the outfield? Or would it make more sense to utilize him as a trade chip to address other needs?
If it’s the latter, then management needs to come up with the framework of an acceptable deal before the regular season begins as trading him after that point could potentially harm the locker room chemistry.
When it comes to his market value, even at 28, Gurriel Jr. should still be considered an attractive commodity, mainly because of his team-friendly contract. Signed through 2023, the offense-first outfielder is set to earn approximately $4.9 million in ‘22 and $5.8 million in ‘23 before reaching free agency.
Paired with his offensive potential, this should entice a handful of teams to pursue the former international free agent if made available through trade. That being said, the Blue Jays could only part ways with him if they had another outfielder already lined up to serve as his replacement.
On the free-agent front, there aren’t many quality candidates available aside from Michael Conforto and Seiya Suzuki. While either player would bring considerable upside over Gurriel Jr., especially Suzuki, neither of them can play centre field full-time.
Since Springer’s days as a regular in centre fielder are likely numbered, it’d be wise to search for someone that has experience in all three outfield spots.
Atop that list lies Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier, who holds 6,213 career innings in centre field, along with three Gold Gloves and one Platinum Glove award.
Though acquiring him would likely mean assuming his remaining contract, which includes a $12.16 million salary in ‘22 and a $13 million club option with a $2.5 million buy-out in ‘23, he remains an elite defender. If he didn’t work out after next season, the team could simply cut ties with him in the off-season.
If Toronto wants to swing for the fences however, pursuing Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds would easily solve multiple problems, as he’d check several boxes off from the organization’s needs list.
First and foremost, Reynolds is a switch-hitter, one that posted career-highs in home runs (24), RBIs (90), wRC+ (142) and fWAR (5.5) in ‘21. Additionally, he also finished with a career-best +9 OAA rating across 1,133 2/3 innings in centre field.
At 27-years-old, along with four more seasons of team control, the 6’3” outfielder could become a long-term solution for Toronto. In saying that, acquiring him wouldn’t come cheap and may require a significant haul of prospects being sent to Pittsburgh.
Either way, whichever player the Blue Jays end up pursuing, there exists multiple avenues the team could explore if they indeed plan to trade Gurriel Jr.
Though it might not be a popular decision amongst the fan base, it could dramatically improve the overall state of this roster.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85