It hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Houston Texans over the last few years. The franchise has crumbled into the abyss ever since they gave up a 24-point lead over the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2019 Divisional Round and from that point onwards, the trajectory of the team has been pointed firmly in the downward position.
The on-field product has been an objective mess for the majority of the season. Sure, the Texans have pulled four wins out of the bag, but their points differential of -169 is the third-worst in the NFL. The roster is lacking star talent and depth overall – there are good players like Brandin Cooks, Laremy Tunsil, and Justin Reid, but the talent is far and few between.
Of course, there is Deshaun Watson, but the quarterback is still inactive as he faces a litany of sexual misconduct allegations. Beyond that, Watson made it clear in the off-season that he no longer wanted to be a part of the organization – so it’s safe to assume the Texans’ future plans probably don’t include the former number 12 overall pick. That leaves the Texans in a predicament, but not one they’re unfamiliar with: finding their potential quarterback of the future.
For the first time since 2019, the Texans will have a first-round pick in the NFL Draft. They own each of their picks in rounds one to six next year, and also own the Cowboys seventh round pick. There’s every possibility that they could draft a quarterback in the first round – or even the second round. But, the consensus is that this might be one of the worst drafts for high-end quarterback talent in a few years. Any quarterback taken in the top five – maybe even the top 10 – would be viewed as a serious gamble.
Not only that, but the Texans just have too many holes on the roster to currently invest significant draft capital into anything less than a sure thing. The defense currently ranks 29th in drive success rate and 26th in EPA per play, allowing 26.5 points per game. With a pressure rate of 19.8 percent, the Texans also have one of the worst pass rushes in the league. The numbers back up what we’re seeing on Sunday afternoons: the Texans aren’t burdened with the prospect of too much talent. Investing heavily on a quarterback while your roster has more pressing needs is a relative gamble, too.
So, maybe they don’t need to. At least, not yet anyway. The Texans drafted Davis Mills with the 67th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Mills was expected to serve as the backup to journeyman Tyrod Taylor, but was thrust into a starting role after Taylor went down with an injury in Week 2.
Expectations were realistically muted for Mills, and he struggled in his first six weeks as the starter while Taylor was out – aside from an impressive 21-of-29 for 312 yards and three touchdown performance against the New England Patriots. A rare time where Bill Belichick has struggled to flumox a rookie quarterback. Mills ranked 33rd out of 34 quarterbacks in EPA per play in his first stint as a starter. He showed flashes along with the rawness of a rookie behind one of the weaker offensive lines in the NFL.
Mills was benched in favour of the returning Tyrod Taylor in Week 9, but returned to action against the Colts in Week 13. Since then, Mills has shown marked improvement while the Texans have gone 2-2. In that span, Mills has completed 68 percent of his passes for 975 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. He doesn’t have an elite arm, or even close to one of the best in the league, but Mills has enough in his repertoire to make every throw on the route tree. He’s displayed composure in the pocket, enough mobility to escape pressure on occasion, and isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield. He’s also 17th out of 27 in EPA over the last four weeks.
He also has the advantage of being in the building this year. On the surface that doesn’t seem like it would matter much in the grand scheme of things. Teams will take whichever quarterback fits their vision, but Mills has the advantage of spending time with the coaches in the quarterback room and on the practice field, working within their scheme. For all intents and purposes, he could be David Culley’s guy.
If the Texans aren’t sold on any of the draft-eligible guys, and don’t think they’ll be in the running for any potential free agent, then it wouldn’t hurt to give Davis Mills an extended look beyond this season. He, like most rookies, will have obvious growing pains – he’s thrown 10 interceptions this season and has the ninth-highest interception rate in the NFL, but he’s still just 23 years old and has already shown significant improvement in such a short span.
Mills might not be the long-term solution for the Houston Texans, but in a season where the chips haven’t fallen their way, he’s been a relative bright spot. He deserves a chance to cement his place in the franchise for a while longer yet.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @thomasvalenfine