We’re in week 17 of 18 on the NFL schedule, in what’s been a relatively quiet year on the coaching front. But rest assured, this is likely just the calm before the storm, as NFL teams let coaches play out the season before making some drastic changes in the offseason.
This year’s league parity and tight playoff races in both the AFC & NFC have led to some coaches hanging on longer perhaps than they should have. In fact, outside of the Gruden email leak and Urban Meyer saga in Jacksonville, there hasn’t been much for speculators to write about when it comes to head coaching positions. Luckily, the previous two incidents provided more than enough fodder for the media to pour over making up for the slower than usual “changing of the guard” in the coaching ranks.
So let’s count go through each NFL team and see how secure their head coach should feel heading into the 2022 offseason and draft period.
Fort Knox Level Job Security:
Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
These three are either leaving with a gold watch or in a box, which is to say that they’ve got jobs for as long as they want them. Too early for McVay you say? Have you listened to an NFL broadcast since 2017? Broadcasters, reporters, the glitterati of LA, players, anyone with a pulse on the West Coast seem to be tripping over themselves to throw McVay flowers at every opportunity possible. And in the NFL, with a 24/7/365 media cycle which loves nothing more than armchair quarterbacking the previous day’s decisions is saying something.
Virtual Locks To Be Back:
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts
Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
Barring an offseason where they burn down an orphanage these coaches will be back in 2022. Taylor, LaFleur, Reich, Arians, and Vrabel all appear to be headed for the playoffs, and have done good jobs of maximizing their team’s on field production amidst the COVID protocol nightmare that this season was.
Payton was a hair away from landing in the Fort Knox category, but the annual “Will Sean Payton leave New Orleans?” rumours seem to have gotten a little more traction than usual of late. Payton hasn’t exactly been shooting down the murmurs either so while it’s still more likely than not he’s not going anywhere, there’s a sliver of a chance that he could be somewhere other than the Caesars Superdome in 2022.
Harbaugh is so ingrained in the Baltimore DNA that it’s hard to picture him anywhere else, though this could be an interesting offseason for the Baltimore Coaching Staff. Don Martindale and Greg Roman have been two names that have been floating around as possible head coaching candidates in NFL circles. So while Harbaugh himself likely isn’t going anywhere, the Ravens may wind up losing one or more coordinators this offseason.
Shanahan finds himself in an interesting situation however. While his on field results since Super Bowl 54 have left much to be desired, the organization’s selection of Trey Lance 3rd overall in last year’s draft likely means he’ll get at least one more full season before his seat starts to get a little warmer. If the Niners part ways with Garoppolo and turn over the keys to the rookie QB, as is widely expected, Shanahan will need to display some tangible results in the standings if he wants to be back in 2023.
We’re Too New to Go Anywhere:
Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
Robert Saleh, New York Jets
Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles
These fresh faced head coaches aren’t even a year into their head coaching contracts so they’ll be back by virtue of “trusting the process”. All of them have had moments where they’ve appeared to be turning things around, and equally as many times where they’ve seemed in over their heads. The point is that you’ll have to wait another year before you can start debating their job security.
We’ll Be Back… With Changes:
Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks
“Wait, why is Mike McCarthy here?” you might ask yourself. Afterall, the Cowboys are leading the division, and just obliterated a divisional rival in prime time last weekend. And that’s a fair question. Another fair question would be “Are the Cowboys succeeding because of McCarthy or in spite of him?”. Most Cowboys fans can rattle off 5+ scenarios off the top of their head where McCarthy has mismanaged the clock, or flat out cost the team points with bizarre decisions. These are also the same fans who were openly questioning whether McCarthy was a good hire last year. Sprinkle in the wildcard that is Jerry Jones and anything’s possible.
The most likely scenario here (assuming the Cowboys don’t win the Super Bowl) is that one or both of Kellen Moore and Dan Quinn leave in the off season for head coaching vacancies in College or at the NFL level. Then, if at any point during the 2022 season the Cowboys begin to stumble, expect McCarthy’s name to suddenly appear on the chopping block. It’s clear that Jones feels as though he has a Super Bowl caliber roster on his hands, and if the on field production isn’t matching his expectations, he won’t hesitate to make a coaching change.
Meanwhile, 70 year old Pete Carroll seems to have a handshake agreement in place with the Seahawks that he’ll go out on his own terms (likely in the next two years). So while he’s likely to be back on the sidelines in 2022, anything beyond that is anyone’s guess. With rumours swirling that the Giants are going to make a godfather offer to Seattle this offseason for Russell Wilson, you have to wonder whether Carroll wants to go through the process of initiating another young quarterback to the NFL, be it Jones or someone else. Carroll’s a man with many interests, and suffering through a rebuild if they were to lose Wilson probably isn’t something high on his to do list. Meaning that Carroll’s future in Seattle is strongly linked to what happens with Russ.
There’s going to be major changes afoot in Pittsburgh this offseason. Roethlisberger is all but formally retired at this point, and there’s obvious strife between Tomlin, his young receiving corps, and the veteran players on the Steelers. So the real question the Steelers have to ask themselves is whether the issue is the coach, or the personnel? For the first time in his 14 year career in the Steel City, you could make the argument that Tomlin isn’t a lock to be back next year. However you could just as easily say that one of Claypool or Juju could be headed out of town this offseason as Pittsburgh tries to get back to a “Steeler brand of football”. Smart money is on the latter of those two choices as coaches in the Tomlin mould are hard to come by and would be a hot commodity on the open market.
Are We Sure They’re Good?:
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins
Ron Rivera, Washington Football Team
The annual Cardinals freefall is full effect at the moment. Kingsbury’s squad looked like the cream of the crop in the NFC West for long stretches this season, but as injuries began to pile up, some cracks in the armor began to show. The Bills appeared poised to run away with the AFC when the Chiefs stumbled out of the gate. But a rough stretch in the middle (including a humiliating loss to the Patriots running backs and O-Line) led to some questioning whether McDermott was the one to take Buffalo over the top. Stefanski needs to make some big boy decisions with the front office when it comes to the QB position this offseason, and his future in Cleveland will likely live and die with that call. Brian Flores is wrapping up one of the better Jekyll/Hyde seasons in recent coaching history. At one point looking like a lock to be the first coach fired, the Dolphins have gotten scorching hot down the stretch to suddenly sit in a playoff spot in the wide open AFC. And Ron Rivera will need a bounce back performance this weekend otherwise he can start packing his bags in DC. The WFT flat out quit midway through their game against the Cowboys last week. And if there’s a sniff of “we give up” again over the next two weeks, then Riverboat Ron’s goose is cooked. You cannot have your team quit on you at the professional level, full stop. While it’s more likely than not that all 5 of these coaches will be back in 2022, any stumbles down the stretch or during the offseason could lead to them being on the hot seat early next year.
On the Hot Seat:
Joe Judge, New York Giants
David Culley, Houston Texans
Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos
Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers
The Giants announced that both Judge and Jones would be back in 2022. One would assume that doesn’t bode well for Gettleman and the front office as there’s no way you could have watched this season and thought “let’s run it back” without any changes. Expect the Giants to shore up their offensive line and give Jones, Judge, and Saquon every opportunity next season to prove they belong in the team’s long term plans. If not, expect all 3 to be shown the door in short order.
Vic Fangio seems to think he’ll be back in Denver next season, but whether the team agrees with that assessment or not is up for debate. Fangio would likely argue that the team is “a quarterback away from competing”. While that’s true, many Broncos fans will also point towards how Fangio has mishandled Drew Lock’s development as a missed opportunity to address the QB position from within. Denver is likely in for a long offseason watching Aaron Rodgers related news, and hoping that the Packers star QB decides to take his talents to his fiancee’s current hometown.
The Panthers made a series of “win now” moves in 2021, only to watch them backfire in spectacular fashion. David Tepper has shown he isn’t afraid to spend money or greenlight trades if it will give his team a chance to win. Unfortunately for Rhule, his inability to get Carolina to the promised land could spell his undoing. Tepper has had success everywhere he’s gone, so even though he was only brought aboard in 2020, patience could already be wearing thin in Carolina.
Did David Culley do anything to prove he didn’t deserve to be brought back next year? No. Did David Culley do anything to prove he does deserve to be brought back next year? No. You’ll notice Culley is the only coach hired this season who wasn’t included in the fresh face section. That’s because the Texans are a train wreck on and off the field without any real sense of direction. Their ownership group makes the Roy family from Succession look like a picture of familial bliss, and their front office has gutted their roster with absolutely nothing to show for it in return. Would it surprise anyone for a new GM to come in and just clear house here? Didn’t think so.
Call Them a Moving Service:
Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings
Darrell Bevell, Jacksonville Jaguars
Rich Bisaccia, Las Vegas Raiders
Through no fault of their own, Bisaccia and Bevell won’t be getting brought back. Khan will be looking for a high profile hire to come in right the ship following the Urban Meyer disaster and no one in the Davis family has ever “played it safe” when it comes to the Raiders franchise so don’t expect that to change this year.
Bevell’s instructions at this point are 1) Don’t make national headlines for off field antics, and 2) get through the next couple of games with Trevor Lawrence’s throwing arm in one piece. Outside of that, expect the Jaguars front office to cast a wide net in their search for their next head coach. While he might get a courtesy interview, there’s a better chance of Gruden getting re-hired by the Raiders than Bevell having the interim tag taken off his title. Speaking of which…
Bisaccia seems to be a well liked guy within the Raiders organization, but he’s unlikely to be the long term fit moving forward. If by some miracle Vegas is able to sneak into the playoffs AND win a round, then maybe things change, but Davis isn’t likely to be sold on Bisaccia’s coaching prowess by a first round exit or missing the playoffs entirely. Because of the serviceable job he’s done since the great email leak of 2021, don’t be surprised if the Raiders offer him a position with the organization (be it with the new coaching staff or in the front office).
Matt Nagy should have been fired weeks ago, and probably would have been were it not for the Chicago Bears strange insistence on not firing coaches in season. Any other franchise and he would have been gone by now. If the over/under was set at 23hrs 59mins 59sec on how long it takes for the Bears to announce Nagy won’t be returning after their season finale what would you take? That’s about all the intrigue left in “what will happen in Chicago” at this point.
Mike Zimmer is a dead man walking moving forward. Currently on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, and with a date with the Packers (sans Kirk Cousins due to COVID no less) on the docket for this weekend, Zimmer likely has exactly 2 games left in his Vikings coaching career. The defensive lapses, clock mismanagement, and just flat out bizarre play calls on both sides of the ball have all the tell tale marks of a coach on his way out of town. The Vikings have some holes roster wise, however they’re a better team than they’ve shown, especially in recent weeks.
Happy New Year everyone!
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner