Needing 4 points with 4 games remaining in the regular season to reach the 100 point plateau some wondered if Connor McDavid would be able to pull off the incredible feat in this COVID shortened season. Two periods, a goal and three helpers later and the deed was done. What Connor McDavid is doing this season isn’t just impressive, it’s down right incredible.
Over the course of a full 82 game season McDavid would be on pace for an eye popping 155pt campaign. That would be good for 14th all time on the single season scoring list. It would also make him the highest scoring player in NHL history not named Wayne Gretzky or Mario Lemieux. However where Gretzky and Lemieux were setting their blistering pace against goaltending that is laughable compared to today’s standards, McDavid is doing this in the year 2021.
The Art Ross race ended months ago. McDavid’s 100points are already 21 clear of second place. There’s also no doubt who the Hart, and the Lindsay awards should go to either. Come award season, Connor may as well set up a chair for himself on stage to cut down on walking time while collecting his hardware.
What we’re seeing is a generational talent having a superhuman season, plain and simple. Will he catch Gretzky for the all time points record? No. In all likelihood, no one ever will. The game has evolved too much since Wayne’s heyday when he was terrorizing the league. Not only does the Great One have more career assists than anyone else has points, but he was only 28 years old when he broke Gordie Howe’s career points record. To put that in perspective, McDavid would need to score 1300 points over the next 4 years to be on that trajectory, a mere 325pts per season. But could he be the 2nd player to ever eclipse the 2,000 career point mark? That’s a distinct possibility.
To date McDavid has accumulated 569pts through 404 NHL contests, good for a 1.41pts per game pace. At his current pace, he’d need to play 1419 career games to break the 2000 point barrier. 1400 games is roughly 17 seasons of injury free hockey. And that’s the key variable here, Connor needs to stay healthy to have a realistic shot at this.
1400 games is right around the lifespan that most forwards in the hockey hall of fame wind up at when the time comes to hang up their skates. There are of course the Jagrs, Messiers, and Marleaus of the world who play 1700 games or beyond, but all it takes is one major injury to completely derail a career (think of what kind of numbers Bobby Orr or Mario Lemieux might have ended up with had they not had all sorts of medical issues over the years).
What’s really intriguing in all of this is the fact that we may not even have reached peak McDavid yet. Since bursting onto the scene in 2015, McDavid has quietly increased his PPG every year he’s been in the league. The table below breaks down his career totals thus far:
| 2015-2016 | 0.93 PPG |
| 2016-2017 | 1.22 PPG |
| 2017-2018 | 1.32 PPG |
| 2018-2019 | 1.51 PPG |
| 2019-2020 | 1.52 PPG |
| 2020-2021 | 1.89 PPG |
The Richmond Hill native just turned 24 in January of this year. Just how high is McDavid’s ceiling? Is a 2.00 PPG season in the cards for him? Something even higher? Who knows. That’s what’s so interesting about McDavid, is the fact that he’s still only scratching the surface of what he may ultimately become as a player. Already blessed with otherworldly speed, and mitts silkier than Tony Montana’s shirt collection, number 97 is the unquestioned best player on the planet, and it’s not particularly close.
Anyone who tries to argue that Sid, Ovie, Kane or others should be in the conversation is still living in 2015. McDavid is not only the face of his franchise, but of the league in general. His assault on the record books is just getting started, and that’s good for not only the Edmonton Oilers, but the NHL as a whole. The question isn’t “is he talented?” , it’s “how talented is he?”. While we may not be able to answer that today, he’s now entering the prime of his hockey playing career (ages 24-29). How many points he’s able to put on the board over the next 5 seasons will set the odds for his chance at the elusive 2000 point threshold. But if he’s able to bank multiple 120+ point seasons in the next half decade, he’ll do more than just give himself an outside shot at the mark, he’ll be knocking on the door itself.
Lucky for us all we have to do is sit back and watch. Then, one day down the line we’ll be talking about Connor the same way our grandparents talked about Richard, Beliveau, Lafleur and Howe.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner