The UFC’s heavyweight division hasn’t exactly seen a lot of movement near the top in the last 3 years. In a weight class used to seeing fluctuations based solely on the fact that one punch truly can end a fight at any moment, the weight class has been a model of consistency bordering on being labelled dull recently.
Since January of 2018, Stipe Miocic has had to prepare to fight exactly two opponents in the octagon: Daniel Cormier, whom he seems to have once and for all wrapped up a trilogy against, and Francis Ngannou whom he bested in their first contest in January 2018, and will face once more this Saturday at UFC 260.
When they first met 3 years ago, Miocic outclassed Ngannou en route to a unanimous decision victory. At the time, Francis was likely still too “green” to have really had much of a chance if the fight went beyond the 2nd round, relying almost exclusively on his knockout power without much of a Plan B to speak of. Fast forward to 2021, and the question is still valid. How does Ngannou counter if Miocic is able to take him down or pin him to the cage?
Set to turn 39 this year, Miocic has been around the block more than a few times. He’s run into various iterations of fighters who have one punch knockout power at their disposal and, as his 20-3 record would indicate, has been able to dispose of most of them with relative ease. His ability to dictate where the battle is fought, and subsequent skills in all three areas of MMA (stand up, on the mat, and dirty boxing against the cage) makes it extremely difficult for opponents to key in on a weakness worth exploiting.
We know what we’re getting with Stipe. We’ve seen this movie before. The real question is what has Ngannou done to become a more well rounded fighter since the last time he fought the future UFC hall of famer?
Francis’ camp is saying all the right things. Every fight cliche in the book has been dropped in the weeks leading up to the rematch. “It’s his time”, “he was too raw when they first met”, “he’s a more polished fighter now” are just a few of the soundbites we’ve heard over the past few days. And while there’s no doubt that fighters improve with each training camp, and get more experience with each fight, at this point, we essentially need to take Ngannou at his word that he’s evolved because we’ve yet to see it in the ring.
Through no fault of his own, Ngannou’s last 4 fights have lasted a combined total of 162 seconds. With first round TKO/KO’s of Blaydes, Velasquez, Dos Santos, and Rozenstruik fans have only gotten to witness brief flashes on Ngannou’s skills before his fists ended the fights.
Francis’ camp will point towards these results as proof that he’s picking his spots better, and becoming a truly world class striker. Head coach Eric Nicksick recently said “This is as close as you can get to the Mike Tyson effect. There’s something alarming about his calmness in the back, before a fight. He’s calmer. It’s f—ing eerie. And when that cage door closes, it’s something different. It’s like, ‘This dude is about to kill somebody.'” But it still doesn’t shed light on what will happen if the fight goes the distance (or even makes it out of the first round).
We already knew that Ngannou had arguably the most dangerous fists amongst the heavyweight division. What we’ve yet to see is how his grappling, his takedown defense, how he defends from the guard, and all the other things that savvy veteran fighters will try to do to negate his knockout power, has evolved over the years. If Ngannou is the most dangerous striker in the division, then Miocic is unquestionably the best at dragging fighters into the deep end of the pool and testing their conditioning in the later rounds of fights. Whomever is able to dictate the pace in the opening few minutes of the fight is likely to gain a massive advantage early on.
That being said, it’s hard not to root for Ngannou. While Stipe has accomplished everything there is to accomplish in the heavyweight division, he’s just padding his resume at this point. Approaching 40 years old, we’re likely nearing the last handful of fights of his career. Ngannou on the other hand, has a personal story straight out of a movie. After fleeing his home country of Cameroon, he got picked up off a raft by the Red Cross. 3 years later and suddenly he found himself competing against the best MMA fighters in the world. His philanthropic work back home is admirable, and a championship win would be a huge boost to the UFC on the African continent.
With the winner of Saturday’s fight poised to take on Jon Jones, in what’s likely to be one of the highest grossing PPV events of the year, the foundation is there to truly map out the future of the heavyweight division. If Miocic wins, and then is able to defeat Jones, one would have to assume he retires at that point. What’s left to do? Going out on top against one of the greatest pound for pound fighters of all time would be the cherry on top of a remarkable career. If Ngannou wins, and then is able to defeat Jones, you’re looking at the next UFC superstar in terms of PPV draws and getting the full push from the organization’s marketing department.
Whatever the outcome, Saturday night will be all about legacy. Either Stipe wins and he further cements his claim as one of, if not THE best heavyweight fighters in UFC history, or Ngannou earns the victory and begins a new era in the HW weight class. One thing for certain is that you don’t want to blink this weekend. When these two gladiators step into the octagon on March 27th, one punch is all it takes.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @dynessports