UFC Vegas 59 Analysis & Predictions

UFC Vegas 59: Santos vs Hill – 8.6.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 59: Santos vs Hill. Action returns to the UFC Apex tonight after an excellent pay-per-view card last week in Dallas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 202-115-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 204-113-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-5-2022 at 8pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Stephanie Egger -130 vs Mayra Bueno Silva +105

Anthony: This card begins with a bout at women’s bantamweight between Stephanie Egger and Mayra Bueno Silva. Both women earned a win earlier this year and I am expecting a competitive matchup today. Egger has great judo and solid jiu jitsu, making her a threat in the clinch and down on the mat. It did not take Egger long to finish Shanna Young and Jessica-Rose Clark in her last two, but Bueno Silva is a much tougher draw. We have seen Sheetara in the UFC for longer and stacking up the better-quality wins. She is the superior striker, heavy handed and eager to throw at a very high volume. If Bueno Silva is successful sprawling and keeping the feet I imagine we see Egger get picked apart. Bueno Silva defends 69 percent of takedowns but Egger’s attempts are not from the traditional single or double leg. It will be very difficult for Egger to land any sort of throws or trips if she gets clipped on every entry into the clinch. Bueno Silva is one of the few underdogs worth chasing tonight. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
Nick: Mayra Bueno Silva is a brawler. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ blackbelt. She’s coming off a convincing decision win over Yanan Wu and she’ll be looking to build on that momentum against Stephanie Egger in this spot. Egger’s resume in MMA leaves a lot to be desired, but she’s a decorated black belt in Judo with a win over Ronda Rousey and several highly regarded judo tournament scalps to her name. She’s a strong grappler in the clinch, she does a good job grinding on her opponents up against the cage and most of her success comes in closing the distance to neutralize her opponents’ offensive weapons. Bueno Silva is the aggressor in most of her fights. She likes to move forward and she generally does a good job forcing her opponents to fight off their back foot. She’ll have to be careful here, as Egger has been known to use the aggression of her opponents to set up throws and takedowns. Egger is certainly live as an underdog here, but Bueno Silva is the more technical and dangerous striker. Additionally, I feel Bueno Silva’s grappling has improved enough over her last few fights to make it difficult for Egger to take her down. Bueno Silva has a very solid 69 percent takedown defense in the UFC. If she is taken down, I expect her BJJ is solid enough to use it to work back to her feet. This is a low confidence play to open the card, but I’ll side with the better striker in Bueno Silva. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision

Cory McKenna -200 vs Miranda Granger +160

Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight fight with Cory McKenna taking on Miranda Granger. This feels like one of the easier matchups to predict despite the volatility we often see at 115 pounds. McKenna is a young talent coming off a loss that the UFC may be looking to build up here. She draws into Granger who is returning from an extended hiatus at the age of 30. Granger recently had a child and her last two performances in the octagon left quite a lot to be desired. I see her really struggling here against a fighter in McKenna with a clear grappling advantage. Granger only finds success in bouts she controls position and that will be incredibly difficult today. McKenna will have an easy time cracking Granger’s 40 percent takedown defense and getting on top. She is the shorter and stronger woman. Granger also poses little to no threat in the striking department making me favor McKenna when standing too. She is far more active and dedicated to the fight game at this stage of their respective careers. Cory McKenna by Decision
Nick: McKenna has a very strong wrestling base and does a good job finding submissions against inferior grapplers. She’s still a bit early in her career development, but she’s already very strong for her age and capable of scoring takedowns from a variety of positions. She is coming off an ugly loss to Elise Reed as a heavy favorite in front of her home crowd at the O2 Arena. She seemed hesitant to lean on her grappling in that matchup, which was maddening as a McKenna backer, as Reed clearly had technical advantages on the feet. Miranda Granger has been out of action since November of 2020. She’s fairly well-rounded and long for the division. She does her best work behind her jab, she’s a competent grappler, but she’s tough to get excited about here as her long layoff was the result of becoming a mother. She did appear to be in good shape at weigh-ins, but I have to question how dedicated she’s been to her training as most of her time off was dedicated to giving birth. Granger is going to have a dramatic reach advantage here, but she hasn’t really been known to use her length well. The line feels entirely too wide, but I’ll back McKenna here hoping she knows she has a very clear path to victory if she chooses to lean on her grappling and wrestling. Cory McKenna by Decision

Bryan Battle -300 vs Takashi Sato +235

Anthony: This fight between Takashi Sato and Bryan Battle will take place at welterweight. Battle made the 170-pound limit for the very first time yesterday. He won The Ultimate Fighter 29 at middleweight but now has more time between fights and the UFC Performance Institute at his disposal while cutting. He has a big frame for welterweight and I am very excited about the move down for him. Battle should thrive in this particular matchup given the wide grappling discrepancy. Sato is a southpaw striker that primarily chases the knockout punch. His wrestling is very poor. Gunnar Nelson controlled Sato on the mat for eight minutes in their bout this March. His submission defense looked slightly improved there, but Sato is not going to fare well if Battle elects to ground him early. His prior two losses also happen to come by way of submission. The only out I see for Sato here is landing an early KO. With low out and poor defense I think he really struggles against a much younger and stronger opponent. Bryan Battle by Decision
Nick: Sato is a judo black belt, but most of his success has come on the feet. He has sneaky power in his strikes, but he often telegraphs his shots and his overall takedown defense is mediocre at best. Bryan Battle is rough around the edges, but he seems effective pretty much everywhere. He’s a powerful striker that can string together effective combinations. He’s most dangerous striking in the clinch, but he showed in his TUF semi-final submission win over a decorated wrestler in Andre Petroski, that he’s a talented grappler as well. Battle will be cutting weight down to 170 for the first time for this matchup. He was visibly drained at weigh-ins, but he seemed to rehydrate well and he looked in good spirits when he faced off against Sato. The key for me in picking this matchup is Battle’s durability. He’s shown in many of his recent fights that he can eat a lot of shots. That will be important against Sato whose one clear path to victory is likely via KO. This is a close matchup and a lower-level one as well so I don’t want to be overinvested here. Still, I see Battle as the more complete fighter. He should be able to win minutes on volume, mix in his grappling if he needs to, and I expect he’s durable enough to eat a few shots from Sato as he closes the distance. Bryan Battle by Decision

Terrance McKinney -1000 vs Erick Gonzalez +600

Anthony: Next is a matchup at lightweight between Terrance McKinney and Erick Gonzalez. McKinney experienced his first loss in the UFC earlier this year. Per usual McKinney jumped into action immediately and had Drew Dober badly hurt. However, the finish did not materialize and Dober was able to turn the tables on McKinney and get a stoppage of his own after landing a massive knee. The hyper aggressive style of McKinney surely has its perks but his reckless nature makes me nervous to back him, especially as a -1000 favorite. He will run into problems fighting this style against the lightweight top-20 but Gonzalez is not that caliber a fighter. The 30-year-old just recently made it into the promotion after a career of regional bouts. I am doubtful he survives McKinney’s power and volume having been unable to handle that of Jim Miller on the feet. McKinney is also a very good wrestler who can find finishes on the mat just as quickly as when striking. Very few lightweights generate the concussive ground and pound we see from him regularly. He has stopped 11 of his 12 wins inside of round one and I expect no different today. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO
Nick: McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is coming off a hard-fought loss to a talented vet in Drew Dober, but his stock actually rose as Dober is a borderline ranked fighter at 155. Prior to that loss, McKinney had been coming off five straight wins via first round finish. He’s extremely athletic and explosive offensively. He’s well-rounded and continues to show improvements in all aspects of his game. Erick Gonzalez is a scrappy brawler, coming off an ugly loss via KO in his debut against a legendary veteran in Jim Miller. That was undoubtedly a tough matchup, but Miller isn’t known as a power puncher, so it’s somewhat concerning to see Gonzalez put out by a punch in that spot. The line here is getting ridiculous considering McKinney is still very early in his development. Still, this feels like the UFC is handing him a lay-up. I expect he’ll rush Gonzalez early here and put him out in the first round. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO

Michal Oleksiejczuk -700 vs Sam Alvey +465

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with a middleweight scrap between Michal Oleksiejczuk and Sam Alvey. This is expected to be Alvey’s final UFC fight. He has been a staple of the promotion since 2014. Unfortunately for Smile’N Sam it has been eight consecutive fights without a win. He struggles to keep pace with opponent volume and at this stage of his career the chin is barely hanging on. Oleksiejczuk is not a super talented fighter but he is certainly the rightful favorite here. He hits hard and has the size to match up well with Alvey who has also fought before at 205 pounds. Alvey tends to now chase opponents to give back the damage he accrues. Oleksiejczuk should land big without issue in these exchanges and I expect to see him drop Alvey from the southpaw stance. Against the cage Alvey is a sitting duck and I think defensive awareness costs him yet again. It is one of the better matchups Alvey has drawn into recently but I think it is safe to say the man is done. Michal Oleksiejczuk by Round Two KO
Nick: Oleksiejczuk has serious KO power and he does a good job putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Additionally, he has developed a reputation as a fast starter with a lot of quick finishes. Oleksiejczuk has shown a propensity to fade late in fights, but there’s no denying he’s the more dangerous and explosive fighter in this matchup. Sam Alvey is a tough and savvy veteran, but he looks slow in most exchanges. He can still clear out the lower-level fighters in this division, but more often than not he seems to be a stepping stone for the UFC to use to build up prospects. He’s been in a lot of close matchups, but he’s winless across his last eight fights. There is a very good chance he’s cut from the roster with another loss in this matchup. Oleksiejczuk will be moving down to middleweight here, having fought his entire UFC career at light heavyweight. He was undersized at 205, so this move could be a major boost for his career trajectory. The line has gotten out of hand in this one as Alvey does still carry some power. However, Oleksiejczuk is very clearly the side. I expect he can overwhelm Alvey early on his way to a finish. Michal Oleksiejczuk by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Ariane Lipski -185 vs Priscila Cachoeira +150

Anthony: Opening the main card is a women’s flyweight bout between Ariane Lipski and Priscila Cachoeira. Lipski was the only fighter to miss weight yesterday coming in more than two pounds heavy. I was impressed by her most recent performance but will not overrate the level of competition. A debuting Mandy Bohm is not that tough a test and Lipski will be in for a much more grueling fight today. She is the better technical striker compared to Cachoeira but not as aggressive or power focused. Lipski does utilize kicks more often than Cachoeira and puts in much more work to her opponent’s body. I can see Cachoeira gassing here if Lipski fights smart at range, but I also worry about her own cardio given the grueling weight cut. Betting the heavier girl is rarely profitable and I recommend staying away from Lipski as a moderate favorite tonight. Cachoeira always fights hard and I think her power could be the difference in this bout. This makes four fights in a row I have backed Zombie Girl as the underdog. It is not a confident pick. Priscila Cachoeira by Decision
Nick: Lipski is a decent muay thai striker, but defensively she leaves a lot to be desired. She is coming off an impressive win over Mandy Bohm. She was dominant for the entirety of three rounds and with her recent move to an excellent camp in Kings MMA, I expect we will continue to see her make dramatic improvements. Cachoeira is going to be the more aggressive striker here. She’s very compact in her stance, she throws fairly effective combinations and she does a good job using her volume to keep pressure on opponents. She can take a shot and keep moving forward, and she puts enough volume on her opponents to eventually find openings to land power shots. That being said, she takes a ridiculous amount of damage. Cachoeira has a worse than -3 striking differential. She absorbs nearly eight significant strikes per minute. The clearest path for Lipski here is to lean on her grappling against a flawed grappler in Cachoeira. Even if she doesn’t I expect she’ll be more defensively sound on the feet. Cachoeira averages a full strike landed more than Lipski does per minute. However, she also absorbs four more per minute than Lipski does. Her defense on the feet is virtually non-existent. This is another low level matchup, so don’t overinvest. Still, Lipski is the side. She is simply more well-rounded and defensively sound. Ariane Lipski by Decision

Serghei Spivac -300 vs Augusto Sakai +235

Anthony: Next is a fight between heavyweights Serghei Spivac and Augusto Sakai. It is a classic matchup of grappler and striker. This is a spot Sakai needs to secure a win after dropping three consecutive bouts. I faded him on all those occasions as his power and durability leave quite a bit to be desired in this division. However, I must give him credit for the very tough competition he has faced. Sakai will have the advantage standing here, with good boxing and the ability to put volume on opponents. He has reliable cardio in a stand-up fight but if Spivac can successfully ground Sakai things become very different. I think he needs to get this bout to the mat just once in order to start mounting momentum. Someone with his agility and takedown entries should be able to do so and for that reason he is the rightful favorite in my eyes. Sakai has the power to knockout anyone at heavyweight but we rarely see him focus on landing the big one. I think a volume centric approach plays to his detriment as Spivac has proven fairly durable. I expect to see a convincing decision win or perhaps a finish on the mat. The odds unfortunately make this matchup a bit sketchy to bet on. Serghei Spivac by Decision
Nick: Spivac has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight, with most of his wins coming via submission. He’s also decent at striking in the clinch, but seems hesitant at times which can keep inferior opponents in fights he should be dominating. Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, falling to tough competition in Alistair Overeem, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tai Tuivasa. He’s a technical striker for a heavyweight. He has solid footwork and puts out excellent volume for a heavyweight, landing more than five significant strikes per minute. He is sometimes careless defensively in exchanges, but he does a good job circling away from the power of his opponents. In many ways, this is another striker vs. grappler matchup. Spivac averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes and Sakai sports a mediocre 68 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Sakai is one of the more ‘live’ underdogs on this card, especially if he can keep this fight standing. However, I think it’s more likely we see Spivac ground him as he works for another submission win. Sergey Spivac by Round Two Submission

Juliana Miller -125 vs Brogan Walker +100

Anthony: This bout will decide The Ultimate Fighter at women’s flyweight as Juliana Miller takes on Brogan Walker. I did not tune in for every moment of this season but I did watch every fight. Miller was my pick to win at the end of this season after emerging victorious in her rematch with Claire Guthrie. She is a jiu jitsu brown belt and hyper aggressive offensive grappler. Miller also trains out of a great gym at 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu San Diego. The extended reps with partners there will have her even more prepared on the mat than she was training for fights in the TUF house. Brogan is the much better striker in terms of technical accuracy and power. Miller can hold her own on the feet and certainly throw volume, but I do not want to see her trading at distance. She has a clear advantage on the mat and I trust her to drag the fight there. Walker was also still dealing with a knee injury in June. I would not be surprised to see her get tapped as Miller has a very wide arsenal of submissions. I really think her future is bright at just 26 years of age. Julianna Miller by Round Three Submission
Nick: This matchup is The Ultimate Fighter Season 30 Final matchup at women’s bantamweight. Brogan Walker is primarily a striker, and Juliana Miller is primarily a grappler. Walker will have a considerable experience advantage here. She has six more fights than Miller does professionally, including a win over Miranda Maverick and a hard-fought decision loss to Erin Blanchfield. She was successful on TUF in spite of a nagging knee injury and I consider her to be the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup. Juliana Miller is an aggressive BJJ player and very tall and lengthy for the division. She’s extremely raw and lacks technical ability on the feet, but she’s more than willing to eat strikes to throw them and she almost always puts out consistent volume. Her cardio has been solid and her BJJ is surprisingly advanced for a 26-year-old. If Miller can ground Walker she should be able to work for a submission here, but I don’t expect that will come very easy. Walker has solid defensive wrestling ability and she’s going to have a dramatic advantage in striking exchanges. She should be able to pick Miller apart on the feet as she stays out of range to be taken down. This is another low confidence play in a low-level matchup, but I’ll take the experience advantage of the underdog here. Brogan Walker by Decision

Zac Pauga -286 vs Mohammed Usman +225

Anthony: This fight determines The Ultimate Fighter at heavyweight and concludes the 30^th season of the reality show. Zac Pauga will be fighting Mohammed Usman and I would not be surprised to see a boring fifteen minutes between these two. Of course Mohammed is brother of the welterweight champion Kamaru Usman but he is not anywhere close as sophisticated a fighter. Usman is athletic but all he does is prod with a jab and throw the occasional overhand. When he connects on anyone with a chin it seems to take more than one shot and I really think he gets eaten alive in the UFC. It was astonishing that he won two decisions during the show but octagon control is perhaps the one bright spot in his game. Pauga is just as big as Usman. He throws cleaner punches at a higher volume and boasts far superior cardio. Pauga earned a finish of Jordan Heiderman in his last fight too. He could land big and finish, but Usman seems to be plenty durable. I think he is the rightful favorite but be cautious betting a low-level matchup like this. Zac Pauga by Decision
Nick: This matchup is The Ultimate Fighter Season 30 Final matchup at heavyweight. Mohammed Usman is the brother of welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. He’s nowhere near as talented as his brother, but he is athletically gifted with true KO power on the feet. He’s a competent wrestler, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade as two of his most three recent wins have come via KO. Zac Pagua comes into this fight at an undefeated 5-0. He fights out of an excellent camp in Elevation Fight Team, where he is one of the main training partners for heavyweight contender Curtis Blaydes. Pagua is small for a heavyweight, but he’s technically sound on the feet, puts out decent volume, and he continues to show improvements in his grappling abilities. As the line suggests, I see Pauga as the more technically sound and promising fighter in this matchup. Usman is a gifted athlete, but his cardio and conditioning aren’t on Pauga’s level. Usman’s only path to victory seems to be a timely knockout here. I’ll comfortably back Pauga as the favorite. Zac Pauga by Round Three KO

Vicente Luque -200 vs Geoff Neal +160

Anthony: The co-main event is an awesome welterweight matchup with Geoff Neal taking on Vincente Luque. This is the best fight on the card. These are legitimate contenders in the division that produce a lot of exciting scraps. Neal is coming off a split decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio his last time out. While it proved to be a difficult fight to score it was a victory Neal very much needed after losing two in a row. Prior to that he had won five straight. Luque had won four straight fights prior to his loss against Belal Muhammad. It was frustrating as a Luque backer watching him get blanketed, but now facing Neal he will not need to concern himself with takedown defense. Neal is a striker who often looks to blitz and finish opponents in the opening round. He has phenomenal boxing and great kicks which could give Luque issues in a drawn-out fight at range. However, these two will meet in the middle of the octagon and chaos is where Vincente seems to thrive. He has accrued numerous knockdowns and finishes during his long UFC tenure. Luque has also outclassed other southpaw strikers before. I love his natural instinct when fighting and ability to beat opponents to positions with his footwork and quick reaction time. Luque is also the far better grappler in this matchup. Neal has proven difficult to take down in the past but he is just a blue belt in jiu jitsu. If Luque can wear down Neal and drag this fight to the mat he is very live to find himself a finish there. One more stoppage win for Luque will tie Matt Brown’s division record. Vincente Luque by Round Three Submission
Nick: This matchup has Fight of the Night written all over it. These guys are both extremely aggressive strikers and they’ve both shown an ability to carry power and still throw hard late in fights. Luque is an exciting fighter who throws a lot of volume and pushes a serious pace. He’s a powerful striker with true knockout power, but he sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open for counters. He’s coming off a tough decision loss to Belal Muhammad, a fight in which he was consistently taken down and outgrappled. Most of his wins have come via finish and he’s almost always the aggressor early in fights. He’s known for his excellent durability, willingness to eat shots in exchanges, and at just 30-years old we can expect he’ll continue to improve. Neal fights out of an excellent camp in Fortis MMA. He’s a powerful striker who is extremely advanced in terms of his technical ability. The one major knock on him is that he’s tentative at times. He doesn’t always put out consistent volume so he sometimes ends up falling behind in his fights if he can’t find an early finish. Neal has faced more technical strikers than Luque before, but Luque’s power and pressure makes him a unique and dangerous test. Luque seems far more likely to push the pace in this one, but if isn’t careful closing distance Neal will be very live for an upset KO. This is a closer fight than the line suggests, but I see Luque as the rightful favorite here. He lands nearly a full significant strike per minute more than Neal, and I see his BJJ as a major advantage if this fight hits the mat. As much as I like Luque I don’t want to overinvest in this one. Neal is very dangerous, but I see the favorite as having more paths to victory. Vicente Luque by Decision

Jamahal Hill -335 vs Thiago Santos +260

Anthony: The evening concludes in the light heavyweight division as Thiago Santos fights the surging Jamahal Hill. This is the second card Hill has been headliner and he is very quickly ascending the rankings at 205 pounds. He has won two in a row by first round stoppage, finishing both Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker by knockout. I made a mistake fading Hill in each of those bouts, unimpressed by what I considered “basic” striking. Investigating further it is clear that Hill’s striking is not basic but best described instead as fundamentally sound. He is landing north of seven significant strikes per minute and placing power shots exceptionally well. This matchup with Santos will certainly be tough but the former title challenger is not quite as explosive as he once was. Santos has produced some boring contests as of late with his limited output and general timidity. Fighting at The Apex has not made him any more aggressive and someone with Hill’s speed can likely avoid those big counter bombs. I am expecting a bit more measured approach from Hill but he will land the better combinations and establish range more expeditiously than Santos. It is contrarian to say this fight makes it three rounds but stylistically I am not certain how these two will clash. The younger and more aggressive athlete should end up getting his hand raised nonetheless. Jamahal Hill by Round Three KO
Nick: Each of Jamahal Hill’s last five wins have come via KO. He is averaging more than seven strikes landed per minute. He has outstanding speed and footwork for a light heavyweight. He works well behind his jab and does an excellent job mixing power into his lengthy combinations. He’s a gifted counter-striker, carrying an impressive +3.35 strike differential so far in the UFC. He’s coming off back-to-back impressive wins via KO over Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker, and he could move into the title picture at 205 with another impressive win in this matchup. Santos is still an extremely dangerous striker with knockout power in all of his limbs. He has notable wins over Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira, both by KO. He also gave Jon Jones one of his toughest tests of his storied career. As impressive as that fight against Jones was, he tore up both of his knees in that matchup and it seems he really isn’t as dangerous or explosive as he was prior to those injuries. Santos should have a slight grappling advantage in this matchup, but he averages only .54 takedowns per fifteen minutes. In many of Santos’ recent fights he seems overly tentative. He’s going to be dangerous on the counter here, but I expect Hill to overwhelm him with volume until he eventually finds a knockout. Jamahal Hill by Round Three KO

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS