Whether they were a high draft pick ready to take that next step forward, or an undrafted free agent who comes out of nowhere, breakouts in the NFL are inevitable. Usually, they’re the result of hardwork and the perfect situation. Other times, something just clicks. Regardless of how it happens, there will undoubtedly be more than a few breakout stars in 2022 – so let’s predict who they’ll be.
First, we should go over the ground rules and define who can make the cut and who can’t. In terms of player stature, Pro Bowls don’t usually equate to anything more than contract landmarks, but if a player already has a Pro Bowl appearance, he can’t qualify for this list. If a receiver has had a 1000-yard season, he doesn’t qualify, and so on. That rules out some potential candidates like Courtland Sutton, but it leaves some interesting names on the board.
Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Buffalo Bills
The Bills drafted Gregory Rousseau with the 30th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft knowing he had potential. Rousseau, at one point, was considered one of the top picks in the draft process but he was raw. He had the physical tools – the speed, size, length – all to succeed at the NFL level, but getting the technical side to a translatable level would take time.
It would seem that Rosseau might just be ahead of schedule after one season with the Bills. Despite playing only 49 percent of the Bills defensive snaps, Rousseau notched four sacks and 38 total pressures – the fourth most pressures on the team, last year. His pass-rush win rate (13.8%) was in the same ballpark as other proven edge rushers like Chase Young, Yannick Ngakoue and Chandler Jones. Surely a good sign for the 22-year-old.
What will certainly aid Rousseau’s development is the free agent signing of Von Miller from the Rams. Miller reminded everyone just how valuable he is during the Rams run to the Super Bowl with 52 pressures and 8 sacks in 12 games. Rousseau will have the opportunity to learn from one of the best pass rushers of the modern era off the field, and playing with him on the field will likely afford him more space to work.
If Rousseau’s technique continues to improve and he soaks up the tutelage of Miller, he could be in for a big year on a very good defense.
Albert Okwuegbunam, Tight End, Denver Broncos
It’s a name that’s been popping up a lot during the offseason, Albert Okwuegbunam might just be everyone’s second-favourite breakout candidate (more on the favourite later) this season. The former Missouri tight end had 33 catches in 2021 on a not-so-great Broncos offense and there’s every chance he could double his production in 2022.
Albert O was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the trade that brought Russell Wilson to Denver as part of that package included the team’s starting tight end, Noah Fant. Not only does he get the starting tight end job, but he also gets a top-10 quarterback throwing him the ball.
There are plenty of mouths to feed on the Broncos offense, but Okwuegbunam has all of the tools to be a potential breakout player. He’s incredibly fast for a tight end, has a great catch radius and is adept at making good things happen after the catch – his 7.4 YAC per reception was the third-most among all tight ends in the NFL.
The best part about it? Okwuegbunam has just turned 24. There aren’t many young tight ends better positioned to break out in 2022.
Nate Hobbs, Cornerback, Las Vegas Raiders
This one might not count for some. Hobbs is entering into his second season and he’s already one of the better slot corners in the league. However, a breakout is still in the cards. Hobbs was a consistent bright spot on a Raiders defense that started off hot but fell off a cliff in 2021. There’s expectations that he can continue to develop in year 2.
Hobbs has the natural explosiveness in the slot required to break on short and intermediate passes and also grades pretty well as a run defender, an under-the-radar quality as teams are entrenched firmly in nickel packages as their base formation, meaning slot defenders are now required to do more. Thankfully, that’s no problem for Hobbs. He has all the tools.
He played the second-most snaps in the slot out of all cornerbacks in 2021, allowing just 0.75 yards per snap, the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. It didn’t take long for quarterbacks to learn that they shouldn’t target Hobbs. Better yet, his sticky coverage meant that quarterbacks never really had the chance.
The Raiders defense is improved on paper heading into the 2022 season, and Hobbs has the chance to cement himself as one of the premier corners in the NFL. He’s already halfway there.
Elijah Moore, Wide Receiver, New York Jets
The New York Jets were the darlings of the offseason. They made some shrewd moves in free agency, upgrading their offensive line and secondary. But their draft haul might have been even better – snagging Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Jermaine Johnson in the first round. The Jets front office have positioned Zach Wilson for a big year – but his selection might have to wait another year. Instead, we’re going with one of his receivers, Elijah Moore.
Moore had a strong rookie season with 43 catches for 538 yards and 5 touchdowns, but injuries limited him to just 11 games. When Moore was on the field, he was a dynamic threat all over the field. His average separation of 3.4 yards was among the best in the NFL and his 1.75 yards per route run was in the same ballpark as players like DeAndre Hopkins and Jaylen Waddle.
The Jets passing attack will have an array of options with Moore, Wilson, and Davis, but Moore’s connection with Zach Wilson could prove to be the catalyst that propels him to the top of the depth chart. He’s already shown that he has the skills to be a top receiver – but given a bigger sample size, Moore could be one of the breakout players of the 2022 season.
Jalen Hurts, Quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles
There’s always one quarterback on the verge of breaking out every year in the NFL. In 2021, it was the former first overall pick Joe Burrow, and one year later, it could be Jalen Hurts – the 53rd pick in the same draft. Hurts’ second season in the NFL was an improvement from his rookie season. His completion percentage jumped by almost ten percentage points, he saw the field better and began processing his reads faster, and became an even bigger threat on the ground.
That jump saw Hurts go from being an almost afterthought at quarterback to a viable NFL starter with room to grow. It helped that the Eagles drafted DeVonta Smith with the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Smith was the big play threat needed to help take Hurts to the next level as a passer. However, there’s still plenty of room for Hurts to grow. His passing heat map shows a player that only really targets the right side of the field and he had one of the highest turnover worthy play percentages in the NFL.
Quarterback progression from year-to-year isn’t a given, but Hurts continual growth shows no signs of slowing down. The addition of A.J. Brown in the offseason gives him a true X receiver and the balance of offensive weapons give Hurts an entire field to target. His rushing ability will continue to be a threat, and if he can progress as a passer, Hurts might be the breakout quarterback of 2022.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.