Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (4/29) MLB slate. The season is just getting underway, but there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust from last season. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
Progress! We went 2 for 3 once again to improve to an ugly 4-8. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, it’s starting to feel like momentum is back on our side. We have a loaded Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider.
Season Record: (4-8)
San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:35 EST
Nick’s Pick: San Diego Padres, RL (-1.5) -105
Zach Thompson isn’t terrible, but he’s not very good either. He’s carried a shaky 5.01 xFIP since the start of 2021 and a brutal 6.27 xFIP so far this season. He’s allowing a worse than .200 ISO to both RHH and LHH and he’s allowed at least one HR in each of his first three starts. This Padres offense seems mediocre on paper, but they’ve scored 7+ Runs in three consecutive games. They’re heating up and they’ll look to build on that momentum here against Thompson.
Yu Darvish can be volatile at times, but he’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .280 wOBA so far in 2022. This Pirates offense ranks 22nd in runs scored. They’re sporting an ugly .140 ISO and even uglier.260 wOBA against RHP to start the season. Even if Darvish isn’t at his best, he should cruise in this spot. The -185 moneyline has some appeal, but I’d prefer to take the Padres on the -1.5 run line at near even money, -105.
New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, RL (-1.5) -125
Bubic comes into this start with a brutal 7.61 xFIP. His 5.5% Swinging Strike rate is amongst the worst in all of baseball. He’s allowed 11 ER across just 7 IP (3 starts) so far in 2022 and he’s running into a nightmare of a matchup against a surging Yankees offense. After a slow start, the Yankees bats have finally shown signs of life. They’re tied for 2nd in the MLB with 25 HRs. They carry an outstanding .218 ISO against LHP so far this season and an even better .223 ISO against LHP since the start of 2021.
Nestor Cortes Jr. comes into this match-up carrying a remarkable 2.11 xFIP and a 44.6% K Rate. I don’t expect these Ace-like numbers to hold, but there’s no denying he’s developing into a front of the rotation starter. The Royals just lost Aldaberto Mondesi for the season due to an ACL injury. They are dead last in the MLB (30th) with just 57 runs scored in 2022.
A bet on the -210 money line is certainly more than justified here, but the value on the -1.5 run line looks tremendous at just -125. I’m always more comfortable taking road teams on the run line as they’re guaranteed their ABs in the 9th. This is an excellent spot, a complete mismatch on paper.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: St. Louis Cardinals, Team Total Over 4 Runs -105
Don’t be fooled by his low ERA, Madison Bumgarner is still a shell of his former self. Once dominant, he’s been extremely lucky so far in 2022. He comes into this start carrying a 5.53 xFIP as well as an unsustainable .220 BABIP against. There is really no denying the fact he’s due for major regression. I expect he’s hit hard by it here against a Cardinals offense that is built to obliterate left-handed pitching.
The Cardinals projected lineup has a better than .250 ISO against LHP since the start of 2021. So far this season they have an MLB-best .515 SLG % against LHP. They’ve scored a combined 18 runs across their last two games played and I expect them to build on that momentum here in Arizona. I expect the juice on this line to inflate as sharp money comes in, but there’s no reason not to like the Cardinals team total here at a meager 4 runs. I expect the betting public will be blinded by Bumgarner’s low ERA here. This is excellent value at near even money odds on the over.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS