Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (4/15) MLB slate. The season is just getting underway, but there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust from last season. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions. The debut column was a rough one as we started 0-3. April is always especially volatile, but I’m confident in my process and am confident we’ll be riding a hot streak soon. I’ll continue to track these plays (W-L) as we move forward. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Have fun and good luck!
Season Record: (0-3)
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, RL (-1.5) -130
Jordan Lyles will be taking the mound for Baltimore tonight. He allowed 5 ER in his 2022 debut against the Rays and carried a terrible 5.34 FIP through 2021. The Yankees projected lineup holds an impressive .228 ISO against RHP since the start of 2021. As has been the case for the past several seasons, Baltimore’s bullpen is amongst the worst in baseball.
Jordan Montgomery is taking the mound for the Yankees. He’s far from elite, but he does a decent job limiting damage – holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .140 ISO since the start of 2021. It’s a small sample, but the Yankees bullpen has an outstanding 1.47 ERA to start 2022. Even if Montgomery struggles early, the Yankees should pull away here in the later innings. Since New York is on the road, I’m happy to back them on the run line here (-1.5). The money line feels a bit inflated at -200, but at -130 there is value in backing them to win by two runs.
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Under 10 Runs, -110
It’s always terrifying betting an under in Coors Field, but the pitchers in this match-up are built to succeed here. Historically, ground ball pitchers find success in spite of the thin Denver air. By keeping the ball on the ground, they can negate the inflated HR numbers that most other arms suffer when pitching in the league’s most hitter friendly environment.
German Marquez has a respectable 3.92 xFIP as well as a 23.8% K Rate since the start of 2021. He actually pitched better at home in 2021, with a 3.67 ERA compared to his 5.38 ERA on the road. He has a 51.6% ground ball rate since the start of 2021. He does an excellent job keeping the ball down in the zone, which is a clear reason for his continued success in this ballpark.
Marcus Stroman managed a sub 2.00 ERA in 2021 as well as 2019 at Coors Field (he didn’t pitch there in 2020). Similarly to Marquez, he has an excellent 53.5% ground ball rate since the start of 2021. He has a respectable 3.87 xFIP in that span, and the Rockies projected starting lineup carries a sub .200 ISO in spite of how often they hit in Coors field.
The Cubs bullpen has been surprisingly solid so far this season, and the Rockies pen boasted a league best 0.76 ERA heading into the 4/14 slate. Again, it’s always terrifying betting an under in Coors. If there was ever a time to do it though, it’s here under 10 runs, -110.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds @ 10:10 EST
Nick’s PIck: Los Angeles Dodgers, Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -110
Vladimir Gutierrez has a 5.42 xFIP since the start of 2021. In that same span he’s allowing an ugly 41% hard contact rate. He throws his 92-94 mph fastball nearly 50% of the time, a pitch this Dodgers lineup absolutely obliterates. The Dodgers projected starters all hit 92-94 mph fastballs well, with hitters 1-8 all boasting an ISO against the pitch over .200 (since the start of 2021).
The Dodgers have gone over 5.5 runs in three consecutive games. Their loaded lineup is finally starting to heat up, and they come into this match-up with an outstanding 42% Hard Contact rate as well as a 40% fly ball rate against RHP. The Reds bullpen has already allowed 5 HR in 2022. Great American Ballpark is one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in all of baseball. This 5.5 team total feels like an excellent bet to hit the over near even money, -110.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS