With Superbowl LV kicking off this Sunday, the casual observer might think that the NFL news cycle will be slowing down pretty soon. But when almost half the league has question marks at quarterback, one of the most important positions in all of sports, you could make the argument that the media will actually be kicking NFL coverage into hyperdrive once either the Bucs or Chiefs hoist the Lombardi trophy.
It’s been a long time since we’ve had a Super Bowl with this many storylines heading into it. Yet the same could be said about the offseason we’re about to enter. Not only has the annual coaching purge already shaken up several franchises across the league, but the uncertainty under centre for many of those teams adds a layer of intrigue to this offseason we haven’t seen in many years, if ever. Couple that with the fact that we have a generational talent at QB coming out of this year’s draft class (Trevor Lawrence), a passer who could go as high as number 2 or fall out of the top 10 all together (Justin Fields), and a slew of wild cards (Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones and Kyle Trask) who could be taking snaps week 1 or never making it past clipboard duty depending where they end up, and suddenly quarterback seems like one of the most unstable positions in the league heading into next year.
Some issues have been resolved already (see Rams, Los Angeles for a prime example of this), and others are just getting started (is there truth to the rumours Aaron Rodgers may be done in Green Bay?). While some of these situations may never materialize, for others, where there’s smoke there’s fire. And if there’s a fire in your QB room, you better get it resolved well ahead of players reporting for training camps. So without further ado, here is the state of the union address on where every NFL team currently sits with regards to the QB position.
NFC North
Chicago Bears, 2020 Starter: Mitch Trubisky/Nick Foles , Finishes 2021 at QB: Carson Wentz
From one former Eagle to another. Bears fans will get their fill of former midnight green QB’s if the rumours that Carson Wentz is being shopped, with Chicago in hot pursuit turn out to be true. With head coach Matt Nagy heading into the final laps of his contract with the team you can bet that he’ll be in “win now” mode. Which means the Bears have to ask themselves, can we win now with either Foles or Trubisky as our starting quarterback? Most fans of the team would tell you “no”. They’ve seen that movie, they know how it ends. While the team would love to go back to that fateful night in 2017 and take Mahomes or Watson, I’ve yet to see any DeLoreans cruising around Soldier Field so they’ll have to come up with a Plan B to address their situation at QB. One of those players (Mahomes) is locked into Kansas City until the end of time. The other is on the move, but likely at a price tag that is out of reach for Chicago. Which means they’ll have to settle for a different caliber of quarterback. Carson Wentz is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. Prior to that though (when healthy) he showed he was every bit up to the task of being a number 1 quarterback in the NFL. Will a change of scenery do him some good? Perhaps. More likely to impact his stats though is throwing a football to a somewhat competent receiving corps. That will do more for his performance than any change in mailing address could. Many a QB will be on the move this offseason, and I would be shocked if Wentz wasn’t one of them. Now the real question is who do the Bears keep to back him up if they pull the trigger? Trubisky or Foles?
Confidence level in QB prediction: 3/10
Green Bay Packers, 2020 Starter: Aaron Rodgers , Finishes 2021 at QB: Aaron Rodgers
There were recently rumours leaked that Rodgers may not be as happy as some think in Green Bay these days. Is there truth to this? Probably. Losing in back to back conference championships and the Jordan Love draft pick probably didn’t earn the front office many brownie points with their star QB. That being said, he’s currently signed through the 2023 season, and any attempts by other teams to trade for the likely league MVP would come with an astronomical price tag. More than likely, these rumours were either a Rodgers or an Agent leak to try to take a subtle jab at the front office that “hey, last year’s draft isn’t going to happen again this time right?”. After coming up 1 game short of the big dance in back to back years, there aren’t many situations Rodgers could step into that would be better than what he has in Green Bay at the moment. Which is why we’re likely to see Rodgers stay put, and the team go out and get a couple weapons for him either through the draft or free agency in the off season.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 8/10
Detroit Lions, 2020 Starter: Matthew Stafford , Finishes 2021 at QB: Jared Goff
Detroit started the Dan Campbell era off with a huge splash, trading franchise QB Matthew Stafford out west to the Rams (who subsequently may never make a 1st round selection again). In addition to the slew of picks they received, they also got back enigmatic quarterback Jared Goff. Goff, a former number 1 overall pick has had flashes of brilliance, but has never been able to “put it all together” at the NFL level. Many speculate that the wins, and numbers he’s accumulated were more so a product of playing in Sean McVay’s system than a result of his football acumen. Well, we’ll definitely test that theory out in a hurry with Goff under centre with the rebuilding Lions. Is Jared Goff the long term answer at QB for the Lions? Likely not. Will the Lions use their 7th overall pick on one of the QB prospects listed above? Again, likely not. With so many other areas of need on the team, the Lions can get a true difference maker at one of the other positions and then take a flier on a QB in the mid rounds. Jared Goff is a serviceable NFL QB. He won’t win you a lot of games, but won’t lose too many games on his own through costly turnovers either. He’s the best bet to be taking snaps week 1 and barring injury, will probably still be taking them in week 17 as well.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 7/10
Minnesota Vikings, 2020 Starter: Kirk Cousins, Finishes 2021 at QB: Kirk Cousins
While there was some initial speculation that San Fran had been kicking the tires on a deal centered around Cousins for Garoppolo, that seems to have quieted down in the last few days. Justin Jefferson coming out and endorsing Cousins as the main reason he had such an outstanding rookie season doesn’t hurt either. Yet it likely comes down to cap hits and contracts as the driving forces behind why you’ll see Cousins back at the helm of the Vikings offense in 2021. With his new 2 year / $66M contract coming into effect this year, the Vikings are probably handcuffed to Kirk for at least another year before they can realistically look at shopping him. Cousins is coming off a career high 35 passing TD’s this past year, and has obviously shown great chemistry with both Thielen and Jefferson. Sprinkle in Dalvin Cook and Irv Smith Jr’s late season emergence and the Vikings offense seems ready to roll out largely unchanged in 2021. It may not be the splashy move you’ll see other teams make, but Minnesota has other areas of the game they need to focus on more than the QB position at the moment.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 8/10
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2020 Starter: Tom Brady , Finishes 2021 at QB: Tom Brady
When Tom Brady made the claim he wanted to play until he was 45, he got roasted by many experts and talking head show anchors at the time. Well, here we are, 2021 with Brady in a new uniform, but same result, back in the Super Bowl. Not only will Tom Brady be back next year, but the question now becomes “how many more years beyond that will we see him?”. Now removed from the cold New England winters, maybe the ageless wonder has a few more years left in the tank beyond his 45th birthday. The only possible scenario I can foresee where he doesn’t come back is if the Bucs win the Super Bowl and Tom realizes he alone has more rings than any other FRANCHISE, and decides to hang up the cleats. But if there’s one thing Brady’s Terminator-like personality has taught us over the years, it’s that “he’ll be back”.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 9/10
New Orleans Saints, 2020 Starter: Drew Brees , Finishes 2021 at QB: Jameis Winston
While the official announcement hasn’t come down yet, all signs point towards Drew Brees calling it a career at this point. And what a career it’s been. The surefire 1st ballot hall of famer already holds several league records, and probably would have a handful more if not for the fact that Tom Brady has tapped into the fountain of youth and won’t stop playing football. Many around the league wondered why when Brees went down mid-season the Saints named Taysom Hill the starting QB and not Jameis Winston. Well, it may be more indicative of the fact that Sean Payton wanted to “hide” what he had in Winston and not lose him to another team after the season (aka repeat the Teddy Bridgewater situation) than his belief that Hill is a true number 1 quarterback at the NFL level. The Saints can now likely resign Winston to a more favourable contract than they would have had he put up big numbers in Brees’ absence. Now the real question is what version of Winston will they be getting at this point. Will it be another 30/30 season? Or a more polished version of the passer now that he’s reportedly had corrective surgery on his eyes. Time will tell, but the New Orleans offense is still one of the better units in the league, so he certainly won’t be short on weapons.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 5/10
Atlanta Falcons, 2020 Starter: Matt Ryan , Finishes 2021 at QB: Matt Ryan
Atlanta is in a weird spot. On the one hand, they have so many deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball that you’d expect them to address it and take an impact player at number 4 overall. On the other hand, how much longer are Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Todd Gurley/Calvin Ridley going to be core pieces on a team that can contend? Regardless of who they take here, Matt Ryan will be taking snaps week 1. But depending on what happens at the top of the draft, if Justin Fields is available, I can definitely see the Falcons taking him and grooming him under Ryan to be the QB of the future. Had Dan Quinn still been the coach, I would lean towards Atlanta re-tooling and taking another run at trying to capture the Lombardi trophy. However, with Arthur Smith now at the helm, I’d tend to think he’ll take a bigger picture approach and scoop up Fields if he’s still available when the Falcons are on the clock. Whatever they do, Ryan isn’t ready to pass the torch YET, so expect to see old reliable to kick off the year.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 8/10
Carolina Panthers, 2020 Starter: Teddy Bridgewater, Finishes 2021 at QB: Teddy Bridgewater
Rumours that the Panthers are making calls to trade up in the draft to take a QB have been swirling since the final whistle of week 17. Bridgewater will be entering the 2nd year of a 3 year $63M contract with the Panthers in 2021. But the way in which the contract is structured is that the dead cap hit drops from $20M to only $5M in 2022 if the team parts ways with him after this upcoming season. This has lead to many a speculation that the organization views Teddy Two Gloves as competent, but not the long term solution under centre. Which is why the club may be looking to trade up and select a QB they can groom behind Bridgewater before giving him the keys to the offense in 2022. The Panthers have been linked to nearly every QB not named Trevor Lawrence at various times this offseason, so they could go a variety of different directions. Regardless of who they choose however, barring injury, this will be Bridgewater’s team in 2021 and then the real fun begins next offseason.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 6/10
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers, 2020 Starter: Jimmy Garoppolo , Finishes 2021 at QB: Trey Lance
You’re likely to hear the rumour mill in full swing all off season long about Jimmy’s future with the 49ers. The issue however, is what team views Garoppolo as an asset worth trading an upgrade at QB for unless it has draft compensation galore, and the team receiving him has already punted the notion of competing in 2021. That significantly reduces your trading options, which is why the niners were pushing so hard to try to acquire Stafford from Detroit before he got shipped across town to the Rams. Which means you’re likely to see the team address it through the draft. This way, they get the best of both worlds: On one hand, you keep the QB who took you to a Super Bowl as recently as last year. On the other, you prepare for the future in a post Jimmy world. With San Francisco picking at number 12 overall, that is prime Trey Lance territory (barring another team leapfrogging them and scooping him up). Garoppolo then has a little competition creeping up behind him in training camp with the rookie nipping at his heels for playing time. This forces him to either produce or watch the games from the sidelines. The 49ers brass then either gets the best version of Garoppolo, and contend for another title (not out of the question if the team can stay healthy after a horrific 2020 on the injury front), or they have a “break in case of emergency” plan with Lance if things fall off the rails mid-season. I’d like to think Garoppolo can recapture some of his early career magic, but the eyeball test is telling me that perhaps he was more a product of playing on a New England dynasty and isn’t the bonafide number one QB San Fran thought he could be when they traded for him. I’m thinking a week 9 QB switch happens here.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 5/10
Seattle Seahawks, 2020 Starter: Russell Wilson, Finishes 2021 at QB: Russell Wilson
The wheels certainly fell off the “Russell Wilson For MVP” campaign in a hurry this year didn’t they? After looking like he might break records, the Seattle offense came crashing back down to earth mid-season. Now, we’ll see what new offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron can bring to the table, but hopefully it’s something that keeps defenses guessing for more than 5 weeks of the year. That being said, there isn’t much controversy here. Russ will be their QB going forward, as frankly, there just aren’t many QBs on the planet that a team would consider an upgrade over Wilson, and the few that are, aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 10/10
LA Rams, 2020 Starter: Jared Goff , Finishes 2021 at QB: Matthew Stafford
Anytime you mortgage your future assets like the Rams did to acquire Stafford, you can safely say they’re all in on him. Stafford will be the starter for as long as he’s healthy. The smart thing the Rams did here was to acquire him as soon as possible so they can give him and the coaches/receivers as much time to get on the same page as they can. Look at the learning curve a veteran like Tom Brady had in learning a new system in Tampa Bay. It took them a while, but once they finally clicked, the Tampa Bay offense really took off. Look for a similar trajectory in LA this year with Stafford and the Rams. With the way their defense plays, and if Akers is able to take a step forward in the run game, then Stafford may the final piece to finally push them over the top.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 10/10
Arizona Cardinals, 2020 Starter: Kyler Murray, Finishes 2021 at QB: Kyler Murray
In a situation eerily similar to Seattle, the Cardinals are all in on their young star. Are there statistically other QB’s whom you could argue are better passers than Murray. Yes. Are there many that are better AND younger? Well depending on how much Trevor Lawrence Kool-Aid you’ve been drinking, probably not. Ultimately the Cardinals are in a good spot. They’ve got a great young, mobile quarterback who is doing all the right things on the field, in the community, and understands you have to keep the big men happy (check out his Instagram page for some of the “treats” he’s gotten his O-Line in his time in the league). He’s not going anywhere, and Arizona is perfectly fine with that.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 10/10
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys, 2020 Starter: Dak Prescott , Finishes 2021 at QB: Dak Prescott
If ever you wonder why agents are always telling their players to take the money, look no further than what unfolded with Dak Prescott. For every Fred Vanvleet story of betting on yourself that turns out, there are 20 more where the athlete loses a mountain of cash. After turning down long term deals with Cowboys, Prescott suffered an ugly compound fracture/dislocation of his ankle in Week 5. Sadly, it was looking like Prescott’s gamble was going to pay off. Though the team wasn’t off to a hot start, Prescott was piling up passing yards at a career high clip. But as they say, in sports anything can happen. Now the negotiating power has likely shifted back to the Cowboys following his season ending surgery. There’s likely mutual interest for both parties to get a deal done here, but the question becomes whether Dak, now gun shy after his injury takes a longer term contract at less money than he was offered before for security, or whether he doubles down on his bet and signs a 1 year deal in the hopes that he can cash in big next year. Either way, I don’t see many scenarios in which Dak isn’t back in Big D in 2021.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 7/10
Philadelphia Eagles, 2020 Starter: Carson Wentz , Finishes 2021 at QB: Jalen Hurts
What an abysmal year in Philadelphia in all three areas of the game. To be clear, the Eagles indefensible selection of Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson is right up there with selecting JJ Arcega-Whiteside over DK Metcalf the year before, and didn’t do the offense any favours. But anyone who had to sit through the 500 strip sacks or horrible throws into traffic knows that you can only blame Howie Roseman up to a certain point before some of the fault falls at the feet of the QB making those questionable decisions. By nearly every metric Carson Wentz had one of the worst years not only of his career, but in recent Eagles QB history as well. Only 2620yds passing, and a 16/15 TD to INT ratio will do that to you. I don’t understand how the Eagles are always one of, if not the most injured team in the league every year. I don’t understand how the front office is so atrocious at evaluating WR talent. And I don’t understand anyone who thinks the team can continue with Wentz under centre. I was a staunch Wentz supporter for years, but even if he were to regain some of the form he showed during his MVP like season of 2017, his relationship with the organization has probably deteriorated to a point where it’s best for both parties to move on. Jalen Hurts had some flashes of brilliance, and also had some moments where you could tell he was a rookie. But the direction that the league is headed in now (i.e. mobile quarterbacks in the mold of Wilson, Murray, Jackson etc.) is geared more towards Hurts’ skill set than that of Wentz. I’m not sure what I’ll do with my Wentz jersey, but I would be shocked to see number 11 back with the birds next year. It’s the Jalen Hurts show now, and that’s probably for the best for all parties involved.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 7/10
Washington Football Team, 2020 Starter: Dwayne Haskins , Finishes 2021 at QB: Mac Jones
Alex Smith returning to the field after more surgeries than you can count was the feel good story of 2020. After limping into the playoffs with a 7-9 record, the WFT’s draft pick fell all the way to number 19. In the 6 games he started, Smith compiled a 5-1 record and can be pointed to as the driving force behind Washington’s stunning division title. As much as I would love to believe he can repeat the magic he captured in 2020, I think the book is out on how to stop him. Look no further than the debacle that was the week 17 showdown between the Eagles and the WFT. Sitting nearly every pass rusher with a pulse, the Eagles still managed to wreak havoc on Washington’s offensive line and had Smith scrambling for his life. If that’s what kind of effect the Eagles’ practice squad had on Smith, I can only imagine what a full season of teams scheming up exotic blitzes to make him uncomfortable will look like. Overload one side of the line, make him move laterally out of the pocket, and pass on the run. Teams will be sending a steady dose of that Washington’s way in 2021 and making them prove that Smith is all the way recovered from his injury (which I’m not sure he ever will be). It’s a copycat league in the NFL. Teams watching that gametape will pick up on those tendencies immediately and what’s Washington’s counter to that, permanently running 2 TE sets for blocking purposes to try to protect their QB at all costs? With the release of Dwayne Haskins, the WFT will be in the market for a QB, if only to hold a clipboard and look towards the future. I think they address that need in the draft this year and take Mac Jones out of Alabama to reunite with the slew of other Crimson Tide draftees that Washington has selected in recent years. If Washington stays competitive in the NFC east up to the midpoint of the season, look for Smith to finish out the season under centre. If however one of Dallas/Philadelphia/New York begins to run away with the division, then you can count on youth being served and the Mac Jones/Chase Young era to come into effect by around Week 10.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 3/10
New York Giants, 2020 Starter: Daniel Jones, Finishes 2021 at QB: Daniel Jones
Talk about a step backwards. After tossing 24 TD’s and 3027 yards in his rookie year, Daniel Jones was only able to muster a paltry 2943 yards passing and 11 TD’s in 2021 (with 2 extra starts no less). Now, how much of that is the product of losing Saquon Barkley in Week 2 versus Jones truly regressing remains to be seen. Regardless, this is likely a pivotal year for Jones to either truly establish himself as the franchise QB the Giants hope he can be, or the year New York realizes they need to dip back into the QB market again next offseason. I’d be shocked if the Giants drafted an arm in this year’s draft, and neither Colt McCoy nor Alex Tanney are truly breathing down Jones’ neck for 1st team reps. This will be a year to either sink or swim for the young quarterback. The Giants front office will give him every opportunity to succeed or fail on his own merits this season. I’d even venture a guess that they’ll be in the market for another weapon if Smith, Chase, or Pitts happen to still be on the board at 11th overall. Whomever they select though, I don’t see many scenarios where Daniel Jones doesn’t get as long a leash as he needs this season. The real question though, is whether the team begins to think about extension talks, picking up the 5th year option, or just cutting ties all together as they head into the final year of his rookie 4 year deal in 2022.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 6/10
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2020 Starter: Ben Roethlisberger, Finishes 2021 at QB: Ben Roethlisberger
I’m betting this is probably the last time we see Roethlisberger as the week 1 starter in Pittsburgh. After rattling off 11 straight wins to start the year, the Steelers dropped 4 of their final 5 games and were subsequently bounced in the playoffs by Cleveland. This was the year where Big Ben really showed that he’s getting up there in age. For every great throw he made, there was a lame duck that was either picked or should’ve been picked those last 7 or so weeks. Many of his stats seemed to be more the by-product of what his receivers were able to do with the ball once they caught it, versus being the result of a precision throw by Roethlisberger. If by some miracle a QB like Zach Wilson falls into the Steelers lap, maybe we see them take an arm in the 1st round. But even then, we’re in for another year of Roethlisberger under centre with the young QB learning from one of the greats of the game along the way. Given the rash of bad luck injuries the Steelers suffered including losing both Devin Bush & Bud Dupree, Pittsburgh likely feels like they have one more shot left with #7 in tow. Expect them to take whatever player can help them “win now” the most at number 24 in the draft. While extremely unlikely, I can’t quite give this a 10/10 as there’s a remote chance Ben retires this offseason after the beating his body took. But the way this last year started and then crumbled at the end, I can’t see a competitor like Roethlisberger ending his playing days on a note like that.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 9/10
Cleveland Browns, 2020 Starter: Baker Mayfield , Finishes 2021 at QB: Baker Mayfield
“With the 26th pick in the 2021 draft, the Cleveland Browns are proud to select…”. There’s a sentence that seems weird to see on paper after the last 20 years of Cleveland regularly having a top 10 pick. But they did it, those crazy kids really did it. The Browns managed their first playoff trip in a generation, and even beat the Steelers in the process. What a time to be alive. A large portion of that success can be attributed squarely to Baker Mayfield taking better care of the football this year. Not only did he increase his passing TD’s from 22 to 26 in 2020, but more importantly he threw only 8 INT’s compared TWENTY ONE the year prior. That’s almost the equivalent of having one less turnover per game over the course of a season which is a huge reason the Browns improved their win total. Will Cleveland be in the market for a new QB in 2021? No, but if someone called with a godfather offer would they listen? Probably more so than a team like Baltimore, KC, Seattle, or LA would. Still, the Dawg Pound has to be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into the offseason, and that’s not something that fanbase has been able to say a lot over the last 20 years.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 9/10
Cincinnati Bengals, 2020 Starter: Joe Burrow, Finishes 2021 at QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Turn back your calendars to 2007 folks! With Joe Burrow out for the start of the year recovering from his gruesome knee injury, the Bengals may turn to a familiar face to keep the QB seat warm for the future of the franchise. Fitzpatrick is no stranger to acting as a mentor to younger QB’s (he’s done so at nearly every stop in his NFL career), is great in the locker room, a consummate pro, and can still play a pretty high level of football. Cincinnati shouldn’t have any illusions of trying to win the Super Bowl next season. But they also want to try to instill a winning culture with their young team. They’ve already bottomed out once and landed a number 1 QB, so their incentive to tank shouldn’t be there. Instead it should be about creating winning habits that will serve their franchise well down the road when they are ready to vie for a title. The Bengals have no need to go out and draft another arm after doing just that last year, so that’s off the table. None of the Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, or Kyle Shurmur trio seem like they’re ready to shoulder the load. So the most likely solution is to address the QB issue via free agency. Enter, Fitzmagic. After watching Burrow get carted off the field we can all agree that OL is an area of focus for the team, so expect them to go out and shore up that unit in a hurry. A team with a revamped offensive line may be an attractive landing spot for an aging quarterback. Throw in an extra year on the contract and you could entice Fitzpatrick to come back to Cincy, get his reps in this year, and act as a “sensei” for Burrow moving forward. The franchise could do far worse than to bring in a player of Fitzpatrick’s character, and lessens the need to rush Burrow back from recovery mid season.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 2/10
Baltimore Ravens, 2020 Starter: Lamar Jackson , Finishes 2021 at QB: Lamar Jackson
1 year removed from an MVP season, and finally won a playoff game. The Ravens aren’t flirting with other QB’s at the bar, they’re locked down for the next few years. Even if other GMs were to call and inquire, unless we’re talking about every 1st round pick from now until 2050 + the first born child of the other team’s owner then Baltimore is hanging up the phone pretty quickly.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 10/10
AFC South
Tennessee Titans, 2020 Starter: Ryan Tannehill , Finishes 2021 at QB: Ryan Tannehill
Coming off a career high 33 TD passes in 2020, Tannehill is the unquestioned starter in Tennessee. The Titans showed a better balanced attack last year with Tannehill spreading the ball around to AJ Brown, Corey Davis & Jonnu Smith. Meanwhile Derrick Henry continued to do Derrick Henry things and stiff arm defenders into oblivion, much to the delight of GIF creators around the world. We’ll see how former TE’s coach turned offensive coordinator Todd Downing decides to attack opponents this year. Perhaps the Titans elect to air it out a bit more given their success in the passing game in 2020 and to try to spell the workload their all world running back carries throughout the season. Maybe that performance against Baltimore in the playoffs was the result of over usage during the regular season. One thing that became clear though is that Ryan Tannehill is a very underrated passer. When rattling off “clutch” performers, Tannehill isn’t usually one of the first names listed. But he was about as clutch as they come this year as evidenced by the multiple 4th quarter comebacks he orchestrated. I’d even argue he’s possibly a top 10 quarterback heading into 2021. Which begs the question, what the heck was going on those last couple years in Miami? Oh right Adam Gase…
Confidence level in QB prediction: 9/10
Indianapolis Colts, 2020 Starter: Philip Rivers , Finishes 2021 at QB: Andy Dalton
Heading into 2021 the Colts only have one quarterback (Jacob Eason) under contract. Rivers has retired, and Brissett is set to become a Free Agent. The Colts know what they’re getting with Jacoby, who aside from spelling Rivers for the odd hail mary heave at the end of a half, wasn’t a key piece of their offense in 2020. The Colts are in a bit of an odd spot. The only QB trade wise that would make sense (as it wouldn’t cost them multiple first round picks) would be to bring in Carson Wentz and hope that reuniting him with Frank Reich is the shot in the arm his career needs. That addresses both the win now, and the build for the future concerns Colts fans are wrestling with at the moment. But, as already mentioned above, I’m predicting Carson heads to Chicago, and seeing as he can’t be in two places at once, I’m going to have to squash those Indy rumours for now. Instead, I see the Colts turning to another stop gap QB in Andy Dalton. A quarterback who is just serviceable enough to help get the Colts back to the playoffs in the wide open AFC South, but also can serve as a mentor to whomever the Colts select in the draft this year. I’m thinking a 2nd round flyer on a Kyle Trask type player may be in the Colts future, with their 21st overall pick going to someone who can help them immediately. Trask then studies under Dalton for a year, and the organization can make a decision as to the direction they want to go next offseason.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 4/10
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2020 Starter: Minshew/Glennon/Luton, Finishes 2021 at QB:Trevor Lawrence
When your own fanbase starts cheering when the opposing team scores because they want you to lock up the number 1 pick (as Jags fans did at home against the Bears in December) it’s usually a good indication that change is coming at the QB position. Trevor Lawrence has been touted as the next great NFL quarterback since his high school days. He’s going to step in and be a day one starter and for good reason. We’ve all seen the tape of him at Clemson, where he legitimately looks bored playing against the weaker opposing teams. His metrics are off the charts, and the comparisons to a young Andrew Luck are spot on the mark. The question isn’t whether the Jags will take him (if they don’t Urban Meyer might be the first coach fired before training camp opens), it’s more about if you were the Jaguars, knowing the salary cap structure, and years of team control you’d get with him, how many QB’s in the NFL today would you trade straight up for him? My guess is not many. And with how much cap space Jacksonville has at their disposal, they could be a radically different looking team next year. This rebuild might not be a long one.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 10/10
Houston Texans, 2020 Starter: Deshaun Watson, Finishes 2021 at QB: Tua Tagovailoa
I see zero scenarios where Watson takes a single snap whether in season or during training camp with the Houston Texans ever again. He’ll join an exodus of Houston stars in recent years that includes the likes of Hopkins, Springer, and Harden who’ve elected for greener pastures with other organizations. Couple that with the fact that the Texans hiring of David Culley is one of the biggest head scratchers in recent memory, and there’s nothing left for Deshaun in H-town moving forward. Where he ends up however is anyone’s guess. Houston has probably fielded calls from all but maybe 5 or 6 teams in the league at this point regarding their star QB’s availability and subsequent price tag. And when you get that many calls, you get to play the offers off one another until you get something that you’re somewhat comfortable with. Trading star players for picks rarely works out for the team receiving the picks in the short term (the exception being the Diggs/Jefferson trade this year) as the players take years to develop before you can claim any kind of “recouped investment”. So expect Houston to be bottom of the barrel next season, and maybe even the season after that as well too. Which is why trading him to Miami makes the most sense. You get a prospect with upside in Tua, your 3rd overall pick back, plus all the other draft capital you’d tack on to the deal as well. This at least sets you up with a core you can build around. Then flip JJ Watt to another team in contention (ex: Pittsburgh to create a Watt family reunion) for additional picks and you’re at least armed with enough selections to trade up or down as often as you’d like to truly acquire the players you want to build around via the draft. It’s a bleak scenario and I can’t imagine many Texans fans are excited to hear it, but it’s realistically the best shot the organization has to turn this thing around in the next 2-3 seasons.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 2/10
AFC West
KC Chiefs, 2020 Starter: Patrick Mahomes , Finishes 2021 at QB:Patrick Mahomes
Back to back Super Bowl appearances and a half a BILLION dollar contract. I’m not even wasting time laying this one out, it’s Mahomes next year and until the end of time. Next.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 10/10
Las Vegas Raiders, 2020 Starter: Derek Carr , Finishes 2021 at QB: Derek Carr
Rumours are swirling around the Raiders right now trying to move Derek Carr to another QB needy team to assemble enough draft capital to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Texans. And while I’m sure that’s exactly what they’re trying to do behind the scenes, whether or not it materializes is a whole other story. Carr is coming off one of his best seasons by the numbers of his career (4103yds, 27 TDs to only 9 INT’s) but seems to be following the trajectory of Alex Smith. Middle of the pack QB, not flashy, is a good gameflow manager but if the game is on the line isn’t going to be one of the first names that pops into your head as far as QB’s who can lead a comeback. He had 4 games of 3 TD’s, and 3 games of 0 TD’s this past season, with a hodgepodge of 1 & 2 score games filling in the rest. Does that scream top flight QB to you? But it also doesn’t mean he isn’t an NFL calibur arm. The Raiders are likely looking at this upcoming season as their true “opening season” in Vegas (although they played there last year the lack of fans meant they may as well have been playing in Siberia). So to kick off the first true “home game” experience with a huge trade to bring in a bonafide star QB like Deshaun Watson, it’s going to be tempting to pull the trigger on that. Unfortunately I don’t see it getting done unless they involve a 3rd team as the Texans are likely more interested in bottoming out and having the number 1 pick next year than being stuck in limbo with Derek Carr taking snaps. So at the end of the day, I think Deshaun gets traded, just not to Las Vegas. Which leaves the Raiders with their original dance partner when the music starts next year.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 6/10
LA Chargers, 2020 Starter: Justin Herbert , Finishes 2021 at QB: Justin Herbert
Justin Jefferson was the deserving ROY selection, and I will not hear arguments to the contrary. But, I understand that it’s a quarterback driven league, and the Chargers are struggling to establish a fanbase in their new home so the league likely threw them a bone here and gave the award to the California Kid. Anyways, ROY voting gripes aside, I don’t think even the Chargers thought that Herbert would be as polished a passer in year 1 as he turned out to be. His 4,336 passing yards (6th in the league) and 31 TD’s (10th) would both be impressive marks for a 5 year veteran let alone a rookie. If LA goes out and grabs another weapon or two for Herbert, and doesn’t shoot itself in the foot with questionable play calls (which was the majority of the Anthony Lynn experience this past year) then we could see Justin fighting for recognition as a top 5 QB in the league next season. Similar to Baltimore with Lamar, there aren’t many phone calls the Chargers would take that don’t result in the phone being slammed down if a team inquired about Herbert’s availability.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 10/10
Denver Broncos, 2020 Starter: Drew Lock , Finishes 2021 at QB: Zach Wilson
Someone is going to swing for the fences on a quarterback, and the team I think is most likely to do it is the Denver Broncos. John Elway’s track record of developing quarterbacks has been…. Not great. Here’s a run down of signal callers the Broncos have signed since Peyton Manning: Brock Osweiler, Caleb Hanie, Zac Dysert, Ryan Katz, Bryn Renner, Trevor Siemian, Christian Ponder, Paxton Lynch, Chad Kelly, Case Keenum, Kevin Hogan, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, and Brett Rypien. I’m tired just typing all of that. And for a person as proud of his legacy as one of the games premier QB’s of all time, you know that this blemish on his record is driving him nuts. Which is why I see them trading up and scooping the BYU Cougars product and finally putting an end to the revolving door of quarterbacks in the mile high city.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 4/10
AFC East
Buffalo Bills, 2020 Starter: Josh Allen , Finishes 2021 at QB: Josh Allen
The Bills have to be thrilled with the steps Allen took forward as a passer this year. Statistically he went from one of the most inaccurate passers in the league to one of the most precise. That coupled with the fact that Stefon Diggs looks like he and Allen have been playing together for 10+ years, and it was no surprise that the Bills had the run they did. Buffalo may have some concerns (defending Hail Mary passes chief among them), but QB isn’t one of them. Look for them to try to bring in a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball via free agency or the draft, but they won’t be looking to replace Allen anytime soon.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 10/10
New York Jets, 2020 Starter: Sam Darnold , Finishes 2021 at QB: Sam Darnold
There are going to be a lot of things that need to be shaken up with the Jets roster under new head coach Robert Saleh. Yet there’s only so much change you can accomplish in one year. Is Sam Darnold the long term solution in New York? Hard to say. But if you’re going to try to evaluate his offensive potential based on Adam Gase’s 1970’s style play calling, then you’re not getting the full picture. Had the Jets secured the number 1 overall pick and the choice was between Lawrence and Darnold, I’d be advising Sam to start packing up his belongings. But is there any other QB who is an absolute lock to be better than Darnold in this draft class? I’m not sure. I would venture a guess that someone will end up with statistically better numbers, but that’s the equivalent of picking a lottery ticket and hoping you strike it rich. With the Jets being in the driver’s seat in terms of draft capital (i.e. everyone knows the Jags will take Lawrence, so if you REALLY want your guy, you call New York to make sure he’s there at number 2) they could go a variety of directions. I could see them selecting Penei Sewell outright at number 2 and bookending their O-Line for the next 10 years with Mekhi Becton. Or they could trade down, acquire more picks, and try to get as many early round selections as they can pry out of a trading partner. Saleh being a defensive minded coach is going to want to get some impact players for that side of the ball immediately. Does he really want to re-work the entire offense with a new QB at the same time he’s overhauling the defensive corps as well? I don’t see it happening, which is why I think you’ll see this new coaching staff give Darnold an extended look this season before making a decision on his 2022 team option.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 4/10
New England Patriots, 2020 Starter: Cam Newton , Finishes 2021 at QB: Jarett Stidham
Well it had to end sometime. The Patriots dynasty officially came to a close in 2020 when Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. took his talents to Tampa Bay. Cam Newton started off the year alright leading the Pats to a 2-1 record including a back forth loss to the Seahawks. From there though the wheels essentially fell off the cart. They dropped 3 straight contests, and were it not for the fact that they got to play the Jets twice and whatever the heck happened in that 45-0 blowout against the Chargers struggled to move the ball offensively in any way shape or form. The Patriots are going to be extremely active on the free agency and the trade front this year. Unfortunately I think they strike out with most of their QB targets. No one wants to be the team that creates the “next Pats dynasty” so you can scratch out the top tier QB’s being named in trade rumours right off the hop. Leaving someone in the vein of Jimmy Garoppolo or Mitch Trubisky as potential trade targets. Are the Pats really sold on either of those players? Probably not enough to give up the kind of return the Niners or Bears would be looking for. So in true Belichick fashion I see him bringing in some familiar faces, maybe a Jacoby Brisett, or they turn it over to Hoyer to start the season. Ultimately though I see this being a rough year in New England with the Bills being Super Bowl Contenders, Miami on the rise, and the Jets with nowhere to go but up (so they’ll de facto be better than they were in 2020). I think the club turns the reins over to Sitdham for the last couple of weeks to take a good look at what they’ve got in him (and also to not so subtly tank a bit at the end if they’re out of the playoffs as well). Then in 2022 you can expect a retooled Patriots lineup to take the field at Gillette Stadium. This is the pick I struggled with the most as I can see a variety of situations playing out, but something tells me Pats fans are going to be disappointed with whoever is under centre in week 1.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 1/10
Miami Dolphins, 2020 Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick , Finishes 2021 at QB: Deshaun Watson
After an inconsistent rookie season which was capped off by several anonymous players on the Dolphins roster questioning Tua’s abilities, Tagovailoa’s time in Miami may be over as quickly as it began. Finishing 10-6 and narrowly missing the playoffs, the Phins are a team on the rise. The biggest question mark however comes at the most pivotal position in the sport. Everyone loves a great Fitzmagic story but he’s not the long term answer. And seeing how quickly some of the people he shares a locker room with soured on him begs the question as to whether Tua is the solution at QB either. Watson meanwhile has publicly stated he wants out of Houston and has listed Miami as a preferred destination. It’s not a stretch to think that Miami could flip the 3rd overall pick, Tua, and a few more draft picks to try to make a deal happen. Barring an 11th hour mending of the fences between the organization and Deshaun (which I can’t see happening) Houston is likely headed for the number 1 overall pick in next year’s draft as well. Why not jump start the rebuild by acquiring a high ceiling QB prospect in Tua, the 3rd overall selection, and a slew of other picks to help round out the roster and mold it into what new head coach David Culley envisions. Miami isn’t that far away from being a legitimate playoff threat with the defense they’ve assembled. Acquiring a premier passer who can extend plays with his legs like Watson suddenly gives their offense the best QB the franchise has had since Dan Marino. This is far from a lock, and the Deshaun to Las Vegas rumours are swirling, but something inside me keeps telling me we’ll be seeing him in Teal & White next season.
Confidence level in QB prediction: 2/10
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @dynessports