Staring up at the stadium lights of Etihad Arena, Conor McGregor found himself in an unfamiliar position. The man who had become so accustomed to being on the other side of a stoppage was suddenly sprawled across the canvas, unsure of what had just happened. After suffering the first TKO of his career, the usually outspoken McGregor was uncharacteristically at a loss for words during his in ring interview and post fight presser.
“I’m gutted, it’s a tough one to swallow, I just want to go back to the hotel and chill with my kids and regroup” said the Irishman with the look of a fighter at a crossroad in his career. A full year removed from his last UFC fight (a first round TKO of Donald Cerrone at Welterweight), Conor started the fight off well enough. He established early octagon control, landed several clean strikes on Poirier, and although he was taken down, didn’t allow Dustin to gain any real advantage before both fighters got back to their feet. Many would agree that Conor won the first round and looked to be in the drivers seat heading into the 2nd.
But as the kicks to the calf area on his lead leg continued to pile up, Conor’s mobility grew worse as the fight wore on. In his post fight conference he revealed that his leg is “completely dead” and “badly compromised”. Sensing that his opponent was in trouble, Poirier went to work, landing volleys of punches and backing McGregor into the cage. It wasn’t long after that he would land a clean shot that hobbled Conor, and the fight was called in short order.
With Conor’s loss, there are now more questions than answers in the UFC’s lightweight division. If fight makers had their way, you would’ve seen a McGregor victory, followed by him calling out Khabib in an attempt to set up another super fight. Khabib had said in the lead up to UFC 257 that if either fighter did anything “extraordinary” in either the main/co-main event he would consider a return to the octagon. A rematch with McGregor is obviously now off the table (all but confirmed with Khabib’s mocking post fight tweet sent out minutes after the card wrapped up). Did Poirier’s second round knockout move the needle enough to bring “The Eagle” out of retirement? Well given the fact that he submitted Dustin in the 3rd round as recently as September 2019, probably not. Michael Chandler did look impressive in his UFC debut with a first round knockout of Dan Hooker. But does that qualify him for an instant title shot against arguably one of the greatest fighters in UFC history? Again, the answer is probably no. Which means that even with the results of the latest PPV officially in the books, until we know the future of Conor and Khabib, the outlook for the 155lbs division remains muddy as ever.
So where does that leave us? Let’s break it down fighter by fighter in the sport’s most tightly contested weight class and see which direction Dana and his team might go to establish some semblance of a pecking order at Lightweight.
Khabib Nurmagomedov (29-0)
The most likely scenario we see from Khabib in the first half of 2021 is, well, not a heck of a lot. Having already cleared out the weight class in dominating fashion, Khabib announced his “retirement” from the sport citing a lack of passion for the fight game following the death of his father. For most former champions, the biggest draw back to the sport are the monetary incentives. Fighters get used to living a lavish lifestyle and need to get back in the ring to avoid burning through their cash reserves. In Khabib’s case, there aren’t a lot of big ticket expenses that he flaunts about in the Republic of Dagestan. The only two scenarios where he would be eager to hop back into action would be a mega-fight with a GSP type (something he could add to his legacy), or a personal vendetta such as his well documented dislike for McGregor. With Conor suffering a quick TKO, and GSP’s “big announcement” turning out to be a new endorsement deal and not a return to the ring as many had hoped, the incentive for Khabib to come back to reclaim his throne is fairly limited.
Dustin Poirier (27-6)
The biggest winner from UFC 257 was undoubtedly Dustin Poirier. Not only did he score a huge payday by squaring off with the UFC’s biggest draw in Conor McGregor, but he also evened his record against the Notorious one, avenging his 2014 loss. Here’s where it will be interesting to see what Dana et. al. have up their sleeve for the future of the division. Do they strip Khabib of the title for inactivity and crown a new LW champion? If so, you would have to figure that Poirier would be one of the 2 fighters for that belt. Or do they try to sort out the contenders from the gatekeepers by having a combination of Poirier, Gaethje, Oliveira, and Chandler square off? My bet would be the latter of the two options. Give Khabib some more time to mull over his future, and see who emerges from the 4 fighters above before crowning any new champions. Oliveira seems like the match to make but Dana may have other things in mind for the Diamond. The best news for Poirier in all of this though is he now has a trilogy card with McGregor in his back pocket that he can play whenever he wants. But I get the sense he has his mind on UFC gold more so than another payday at this stage of his career.
Conor McGregor (22-5)
Not the return that Conor had in mind when he stepped back into the octagon. But he said it best in his post fight interviews that at this level of the sport, you can’t be inactive and then expect to walk in and not miss a beat. It will be extremely interesting to see what direction McGregor goes in following this setback. He is one of the few fighters in the sport that can essentially book whatever fight he wants (up to a point) and Dana will be more than happy to oblige. But while he said all the right things, his body language and tone suggest that maybe his heart isn’t quite in it like it used to be. Between his endorsements, his Proper 12 Whiskey line, and cameos in TV & Movies alike, he doesn’t need the sport as much as he used to. If ever he gets strapped for cash, he can always hop in the ring and cave in Jake Paul’s face and walk away with tens of millions of dollars in the process. With a young family at home, and more money than he knows what to do with, how eager will he be to have to win his way back to the top in the stacked LW division? Hard to say. At this point a McGregor vs. Diaz superfight might make the most sense. Finish up the trilogy, keeps McGregor as a headliner, and will be truly telling for which direction his career is headed in.
Michael Chandler (22-5)
When asked about his UFC debut Dana White said “I can’t remember a better one”. The impressive way he handled Dan Hooker (previously the 6th ranked fighter in the division) coupled with the praise from Dana likely means Chandler will be in the mix for a belt sooner rather than later. As mentioned above, there seem to be 4 fighters all circling one another at the moment, destined to have to go through each other to climb to the top (and that’s before we even factor in Tony Ferguson who is a true wild card at the moment). Stylistically I’d love to see a Chandler vs. Gaethje match to establish a true #1 contender for the weight class. If the UFC books that match, it has the potential to be a fight of the year contender. You’d then likely see whoever wins that fight either take on the winner of Oliveira vs. Poirier for an interim title (or outright title if they decide to strip Khabib). Chandler’s been a fight world darling for a long time now, it’s exciting to see him finally step into the octagon to truly square off with the best in the business.
Charles Oliveira (30-8)
For someone who wasn’t even on the card at UFC 257, Oliveira certainly came out a winner based on the results of the evening. Had Conor won, he likely would have been the odd man out in terms of title shots in the near future. But with Poirier’s KO of the Irishman, suddenly Charles finds himself in a 4 way square dance to see “who’s next?” at 155lbs. Given the fact that they’ve yet to square off, a Poirier vs. Oliveira bout seems like the logical fight to book. From there, the winner would likely take on the victor of a Chandler vs. Gaethje fight, and the loser would be relegated to “gatekeeper” for the division, with a date against Ferguson or Conor (contingent on him winning against Diaz or whomever he elects to fight next and wanting to take 1 more run at the division crown before truly retiring from the sport). Either way, Oliveira has arguably some of the most important fights of his career coming up over the next 365 days. If he drops two in a row, well then #3 in the division might be as high as he ever climbs in the lightweight rankings.
Justin Gaethje (22-3)
Gaethje was likely going to have two fights in his immediate future that would determine his stock in the lightweight division regardless of the outcomes of UFC 257. Now he at least knows who he’s likely to face. Having defeated Ferguson less than a year ago, he’s unlikely to book a rematch with Tony. Dustin and Justin fought as recently as April 14th 2018 (a 4th round TKO victory by Poirier) so that won’t be the fight to set up either. Which means it comes down to Oliveira and the newcomer Chandler. And if we’re going strictly by what is likely to be the most entertaining fight (and we all know slugfests are the pinnacle of UFC entertainment) then Dana is probably already in talks with Gaethje and Chandler’s camps to set something up for the spring.
Tony Ferguson (26-5)
2020 was a year Tony would like to forget. His two fights resulted in a 5th round TKO loss to Gaethje in May, and a Unanimous Decision loss to Oliveira on December 12th. Which means Ferguson is essentially in limbo at the moment. His next fight could be anything from a scrap vs an up and comer looking to crack the top 5 ranks of the division, to having to wait and see what the results of the aforementioned fatal fourway wind up as. A remote (albeit not impossible) option is that we could see a McGregor vs. Ferguson match a few months from now. In order for that to happen the stars would need to align for Tony. First, McGregor would have to want to stay at the 155lb weight (and we’ve seen him fight at a variety of weights in the past so there’s no guarantee he remains here if there’s a juicier matchup somewhere else). Second, he’d have to hope Conor doesn’t jump at a Diaz or Poirier trilogy upon his return. And finally he’d need Conor to want to truly re-establish himself as a lightweight contender and not be content to just be parachuted in as a PPV draw by Dana (aka the Brock Lesnar experience). If all those things happen and this match becomes a reality, then I think a McGregor vs. Ferguson headliner would have enough intrigue for Dana to take a long hard look at.
Whatever the outcome, fans have to be ecstatic about the future of the lightweight division. When there’s no clear “top dog” you often get some of the most memorable fights as every fighter feels like they have a path to the belt regardless of their rankings. In a sport that’s becoming more and more top end heavy talent wise, it’s refreshing to have multiple scenarios in play for a belt. Will it roll out exactly as I laid out above? Who knows. But one thing is for sure, the 155lbs weight class is without a doubt, the most exciting division in the UFC right now.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @dynessports