UFC 329 goes down Saturday, July 11th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada as the highly anticipated return of Connor McGregor to the octagon has the UFC poised to set a new gate record for the company. While no one will deny McGregor’s box office appeal, it’s been six years since we last saw his hand raised, so there remain legitimate questions about whether the soon to be 38 year old is still a top flight fighter.
The card is stacked with household names, and fighters on the cusp of breaking through, making it one of the most highly anticipated events on the UFC calendar. Here’s how I see the bouts breaking down on Saturday night.
UFC 329 Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (as of July 10th)
- Max Holloway (-225) vs. Conor McGregor (+185), welterweight
- Benoit Saint Denis (-148) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+130), lightweight
- Cory Sandhagen (-130) vs. Mario Bautista (+110), bantamweight
- Lone’er Kavanagh (-218) vs. Brandon Royval (+180), flyweight
- Terrance McKinney (-130) vs. King Green (+110), lightweight
Prelims
- Robert Whittaker (-125) vs. Nikita Krylov (-105), light heavyweight
- Gable Steveson (-1800) vs. Elisha Ellison (+1000), heavyweight
- Adrian Yanez (-425) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+330), bantamweight
- Luke Riley (-265) vs. Kai Kamaka III (+215), featherweight
Early Prelims
- Wang Cong (-122) vs. Tracy Cortez (+102), women’s flyweight
- Damian Pinas (-258) vs. Cesar Almeida (+210), middleweight
- Farid Basharat (-600) vs. John Garza (+440), bantamweight
- Ryan Gandra (-135) vs. Zachary Reese (+114), middleweight
- Alessandro Costa (-230) vs. Cody Durden (+190), flyweight
Predictions:
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
Which version of Connor McGregor are we getting here? That’s the million dollar question. It’s been almost 5 years to the day (July 10th 2021) when fight fans last saw McGregor inside the octagon when he lost via TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage) against Dustin Poirier.
And while “The Notorious” one will be the first to point out the changes he’s made to his training camp, and the fact that he’s already bested Holloway previously (back in 2013), I’m not sure that cutting out sex before the fight is going to be enough to turn back time in this one. Holloway is still a high level UFC fighter whose last 4 fights have been an absolute murderer’s row: Justin Gaethje, Ilia Topuria, Dustin Poirier, and Charles Oliveira.
McGregor’s power remains a legitimate threat. And there’s absolutely a world in which he connects cleanly in the first round, and suddenly fans are shouting from the rooftops that the “Mac is back”. But so long Max is able to extend this fight, and not try to turn things into a slugfest early, he should be able to drag Connor into deep waters and finish him via a high volume attack after the Irishman gasses out.
Simply put, the longer this fight goes, the more it favours Holloway. If McGregor isn’t able to finish his opponent inside round 1 or 2, the pathway to a victory narrows by the minute. Expect Connor to have some success early which should whip the T-Mobile crowd into a frenzy, before ultimately fading down the stretch.
Prediction: Holloway by Round 4 TKO
Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Pimblett was the UFC’s golden boy prior to his loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 324. The 23-4 fighter had all the momentum in the world and was being positioned to take on Topuria for UFC gold before dropping a unanimous decision back in January. Now the path forward seems fairly clear: Win, and it likely sets up a rematch with Gaethje for the title. Lose, and suddenly “The Baddy” will need to rebuild his resume before he can factor into the title picture again.
Benoit Saint-Denis is riding a 4 fight win streak, all of which have been finishes. He’s put away Kyle Prepolec (sub), Mauricio Ruffy (sub), Beneil Dariush (KO), and Dan Hooker (TKO) since May of 2025. He’s also earned two performance of the night bonuses along the way for his efforts.
BSD has some heavy hands, and strong ground game, but has been prone to some defensive lapses in the past. Pimblett is known for his durability and can often thrive in messy exchanges. Neither fighter is particularly known for slowing things down, or wasting time feeling the opponent out which could make for an explosive bout. The play here if you’re betting on Saint-Denis is likely to bet on a stoppage victory, while the Pimblett side seems more apt for a decision.
While I certainly wouldn’t be betting my mortgage on this outcome, at the end of the day I think Paddy’s chin, may be enough to get him to a decision victory tonight. That and getting plus money to boot has me leaning towards the underdog on this one.
Prediction: Pimblett by Decision
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
Bautista has won nine out of his last 10 overall and put up a valiant effort in his loss last October to Umar Nurmagomedov. Meanwhile Sandhagen figures to highly motivated to keep his name in the title mix following his unanimous decision loss to Dvalishvili.
This fight should be a fairly high paced affair, with Bautista likely wanting to turn this into a grappling contest, while Sandhagen will want to use his varied strikes on the feet to keep things upright. If things do go to the mat, that likely favours Bautista, though Sandhagen is no slouch when it comes to his ground game.
Sandhagen will likely look to replicate a similar offence as when these two last met 7 years ago in January of 2019. There, he was able to keep Bautista off balance by repeatedly switching stances, getting deep into his bag of tricks to mix up angles, and ultimately landing a well placed knee to set up an arm-bar.
Both fighters have rounded out their games in the years since, and are far more polished than they were last time they met. But I’m leaning towards a similar outcome in this one, with Sandhagen winning an entertaining, highly technical contest.
Prediction: Sandhagen by Decision
Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
Established vet, versus up and comer. Brandon Royval is a known commodity in UFC circles, while Kavanagh has been a fighter on the rise since knocking out An Tuan Ho via KO in Dana White’s Contender Series back in August of 2024.
Royval brings high level experience against top contenders to the table, and possesses tremendous scrambling ability inside the octagon. But to me Kavanagh seems a step faster at this stage of their careers, and figures to control the exchanges with his athleticism and speed.
The Englishman put on a show against Brandon Moreno in Mexico and while I don’t think he’ll be quite as dominant against an opponent the calibre of Royval, I do think a similar outcome is in the cards. Royval will have his moments, but ultimately Kavanagh firmly establishes himself in the title mix with a win on the judge’s scorecards.
Prediction: Kavanagh by Decision
King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
This one has all the makings of a “don’t blink or it could be over” type of fight. After suffering back to back losses to Paddy Pimblett and Mauricio Ruffy, Green has strung together 3 straight victories since December of 2025. Green has the ability to finish the fight on his feet or on the mat, but will be going up against a fighter with explosive hands that will be highly motivated to keep the outcome out of the judge’s hands.
You need to go all the way back to 2018 to find a fight in which McKinney won beyond the first round. In his last seven bouts (5-2) none have made it to the second round, and I don’t see this one playing out much differently. With an average fight time of just 2:36 for his career, the 31 year old is the definition of a glass cannon, but that might be just enough to get past an aging King Green in this one.
While the odds makers have this one fairly evenly split, I’m tending to skew to McKinney’s side via round 1 knockout. Green’s resurgence has been impressive, but I think McKinney overwhelms him early on, and lands a knockout blow inside of the opening 5.
With an over/under of 1.5 rounds (+300/-425), the line is a bit too wide for my liking to try to hedge out on a straight early finish, so give me McKinney to win by KO/TKO at +195 instead.
Prediction: McKinney by round 1 KO
Other Bouts:
- Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov – Whittaker by Decision
- Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison – Steveson by Round 1 TKO
- Adrian Yanez vs. Cody Garbrandt – Yanez by Decision
- Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III – Riley by Decision
- Wang Cong vs. Tracy Cortez – Cong by Decision
- Damian Pinas vs. Cesar Almeida – Pinas by Round 2 KO
- Farid Basharat vs. John Garza – Basharat by Decision
- Ryan Gandra vs. Zachary Reese – Reese by Decision
- Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden – Costa by Round 2 TKO
Photo: UFC.com
-Brandon Odam