UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs Duncan Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs Duncan – 4.4.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs Duncan. This weekend we are back at Meta Apex for a slate of fights here in Las Vegas, Nevada. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 85-30-1 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
• Nick: 78-37-1 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)

*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 4-3-2026 at 9pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Kai Kamaka III -150 vs Dakota Hope +125

• Anthony: The card begins with this fight at featherweight between Dakota Hope and Kai Kamaka. This is a short notice fight for both men serving as an opportunity to make the UFC roster. Kamaka fought for the promotion in 2021 but only produced meek results going 1-2-1 overall. Since that stint, Kamaka has done well for himself outside of the promotion. His resume includes wins against Pedro Carvalho and Bubba Jenkins but also a bad loss to Diego Brandao. I have always considered Kamaka one-dimensional, reliant on his boxing and not yielding enough power to earn an opponent’s respect. Kamaka is a talented fighter with grit for sure but at 31 years old I do not think he is getting any better. Hope is more explosive and diverse with his attacks. Kamaka figures to be the fresher fighter in the latter half of this bout but that is only going to be the case if it is a back and forth striking affair. Hope can likely score in early moments here against Kamaka as I feel Hope has a clear speed advantage. This is a very tough fight to predict but I’d much rather bet on Hope than trust Kamaka with my money as a betting favorite. This is a good opportunity to fade Kamaka since Hope can mix in just a bit of grappling to easily win rounds against him today. Dakota Hope by Decision
• Nick: Kai Kamaka III will be returning to the UFC here, having gone 1-2-1 in the promotion from 2020-2021. Many felt Kamaka should never have been released at the time, as in spite of mixed results he fought competitively against a quality level of competition. Since he was cut, he fought for notable promotions in PFL and Bellator, and he’s getting a chance to jump back on the roster here as he’s taking this fight on short notice. Kamaka is primarily a striker, with surprising power for his frame. His takedown defense isn’t terrible, but he does struggle to work back to his feet once he is taken down. Dakota Hope will be making his UFC debut here, with an 11-1 professional record at 29 years old. Five of Hope’s eleven professional wins have come via KO and he’s taken on a decent level of regional opponent having fought for LFA and Fury FC. Primarily a striker, Hope does a good job pressuring his opponents and mixing elbows into his combinations. He can be tentative at times and his grappling is generally still a work in progress, but he’s certainly athletic and he has the speed to move in and out of the pocket at featherweight. These fighters have similar skill sets and they both tend to fight on narrow margins. This one could go either way, but I slightly prefer Kamaka given his considerable experience advantage in this match-up. Kai Kamaka by Decision

Dione Barbosa -140 vs Melissa Gatto +115

• Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight fight between Melissa Gatto and Dione Barbosa. This fight is similar to the card’s co-main event with two Brazilian grapplers going head to head. Gatto is well-rounded as an athlete but less proficient with her grappler in comparison to Barbosa. I give Gatto the upside here striking because she never goes away from a brawl. Her striking volume is going to be a bit more consistent than Barbosa who figures to have an edge here on the mat. I am interested to see how many takedowns end up getting attempted and converted. Barbosa will rely on her judo blackbelt to bring Gatto to the ground in this matchup. She could threaten Gatto with some submissions here but I’d rather see Barbosa hold onto dominant positions and win this fight by taking the rounds that she can. These are two very talented grapplers in the divisions and women capable of finishing this fight by choke or armbar. Barbosa has the slight edge in my opinion and I view her as the rightful betting favorite although these odds are close. Dione Barbosa by Decision
• Nick: Dione Barbosa is 33 years old and 8-4 professionally, most recently falling to Karine Silva via decision in a fight she took on short notice. She looks to grapple in most of her fights. She has a dangerous offensive BJJ, but on the feet she seems to take a lot of damage in exchanges. Melissa Gatto lands more than four significant strikes per minute, but she’s primarily a grappler. She struggles at times to get her opponents to the mat, but she has advanced BJJ ability and she can be very dangerous off her back. She is 9-2-2 professionally, coming off an impressive win via KO over Timares Vidal. While she has found success at a high level, it is notable that she’s been out of action since May of 2024. I expect Gatto can keep this competitive on the feet, but Barbosa is the more willing and aggressive in this match-up. The more well-rounded game should allow Barbosa to justify her price as the slight favorite. Dione Barbosa by Decision

Azamat Bekoev -650 vs Tresean Gore +480

• Anthony: Next is a middleweight bout with Tresean Gore facing off with Azamat Bekoev. It seems that bettors really are writing off Tresean Gore who is now a mere 5-4 as a professional. I have always been one to praise Gore after an impressive season on The Ultimate Fighter but alas he has not met the expectations that he set emerging from that season. Gore has proven to be a dangerous athlete with incredible durability, but in terms of dangerous weapons Gore offers little more than powerful kicks and a mean left hand. Bekoev is the much more technically skilled boxer and more composed fighter on the feet. Gore is also abysmal in terms of defending himself from the most basic of opponent strikes. Normally Gore’s fights devolve because he eats too many simple jabs and begins to get fatigued from the damage. I think Gore could perhaps outwork Bekoev in this fight given the gaps between them and their cardio but the most likely outcome here is a quick finish for Bekoev. Gore will not be defensively sound enough to last into round three where he could really hurt Bekoev. I think this will be a rather easy win for the Russian, mixing in his grappling and disposing of Gore with relative ease. Azamat Bekoev by Decision
• Nick: Azmat Bekoev is 30-years old and 20-4 professionally, coming off an ugly loss via KO to a rising prospect in Yousri Belgaroui. Prior to that loss, Bekoev was 2-0 in the UFC and on an eight fight win streak. Bekoev had taken on a quality level of regional opponents, fighting primarily in ACA and LFA. Bekoev is decent everywhere, but most of his success has come on the mat. He has KO power on the feet, but he certainly prefers to grapple when the opportunities are there for him. He’s made major improvements in all facets of his game, but especially his striking. He’s been developing at a dramatic rate ever since he shifted gyms to American Top Team (ATT) in Florida. Tresean Gore has serious power in his strikes, but he’s known to have a solid wrestling base well. That being said, he comes into this match-up with a suspect 5-4 professional record. Gore almost always looks dangerous early, but he’s overly willing to eat shots in exchanges. Additionally, it seems he doesn’t really have the gas tank to lean on his wrestling for three rounds. Gore will be dangerous early here, and he’s also live for an upset if he can take over late. That being said, he’s simply too hittable to withstand what Bekoev is likely to bring to him here. The line is wide, but I do expect an early finish. Azamat Bekoev by Round One KO

Alice Pereira -120 vs Hailey Cowan +100

• Anthony: Here is a fight at women’s bantamweight between Hailey Cowan and Alice Pereira. Cowan has not fought in more than a year and now returns attempting to break her two-fight losing streak. Cowan does seem to be a well-rounded athlete but at this weight she does not easily push other girls around. Cowan relies on her hand speed and mixing up combinations to win minutes on the feet. Pereira will challenge her throughout this entire fight when these two are standing. This is a prospect who has certainly been on the radar of many with her great skillset at such a young age. Pereira lost in her most recent appearance, but at age 20 she is going to learn from mistakes and grow with every performance. Pereira has great kickboxing but she is also known for initiating takedowns and grappling as needed in her fights. This bout should give Pereira a chance to further showcase her striking skills against Cowan’s boxing. Cowan also tends to rush into the pocket in hopes of taking down her opponents. I expect Pereira to have the size and strength needed to stuff Cowan’s takedown attempts here. Pereira has the skill set to win but even if not I’d expect her to look good here, scoring on nice combinations throughout this bout. It is likely going to be a very close fight that ends up decided by the judges. Alice Pereira by Decision
• Nick: Alice Pereira is 5-1 professionally and just 20 years old. She’s coming off a loss to Montse Rendon in her UFC debut. Primarily a striker, three of Pereira’s five professional wins have come via KO. Pereira is tall with a long frame for the division. She is technically advanced for someone her age, but she really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. She has a good understanding of footwork which she uses to move in and out of her opponents’ range. That being said, her grappling really hasn’t been tested extensively, so there’s a chance we see her struggle if her opponents can take her to the mat. Hailey Cowan is long and athletic for the division, but she seems to be more of an athlete than a fighter. She has base level striking and grappling ability, but unless she continues to make dramatic improvements I don’t expect her to hang on the roster for long. While she may have a slight grappling advantage in this match-up, it’s tough to back either fighter here with any sort of confidence. Another low confidence play, but I’ll side with Cowan as she has at least shown a willingness to grapple at this level. Hailey Cowan by Decision

Lando Vannata -240 vs Darrius Flowers +190

• Anthony: This is a bout at lightweight between Darrius Flowers and Lando Vannata. The matchup did come together on relatively short notice but Flowers was slightly overweight at Friday’s weigh-ins. His entire tenure has been underwhelming so far with three losses and two defeats via submission. Flowers does not seem confident fighting out of positions or really challenging the opponents he has been faced up against. Vannata seems like a winnable fight for Flowers given his own career circumstances. Vannata has not competed since 2023 with his last victory coming back in 2021. I do not like that this 34 year old has been out of action for three years and yet he is still a -240 betting favorite in this spot. Vannata should look his part as the favorite if he does decide to wrestle Flowers here but there is no way to confidently bet on Vannata following any gameplan. This could be a striking match where Vannata is throwing wild attacks that miss the target while Flowers is consistently hitting his mark. I think Flowers can get a jump here on Vannata who is slow and little threat to finish fights at this age. I do not recommend betting on this fight as it is one of the worst quality matchups of all tonight’s event. Darrius Flowers by Round Two KO
• Nick: Lando Vannata is a hyper-aggressive fighter known for his willingness to brawl. He likes to throw a lot of spinning attacks and at his best he’s capable of hanging with top level fighters. As his career is on a downturn, Vannata has really changed his game from being hyper-aggressive to a more heady and conservative approach. While this change in styles could extend Vannata’s career, it makes it tougher for him to take over a fight and impose his will on opponents. Vannata has a decent wrestling base and he’s certainly the more technically skilled fighter in this match-up. All that being said, he is coming off back-to-back losses and he has been out of action since April of 2023. Darrius Flowers is somewhat undersized for the division, but he has one-shot KO power on the feet and a solid understanding of wrestling fundamentals. He is 12-8-1 professionally, but 0-3 in the UFC. He has a bad habit of becoming complacent as his fights wear on, and it is notable that he has been out of action since July of 2024. Vannata is the much more skilled fighter here, but we haven’t seen him in action in three years. I expect he can stay a step ahead here, but I’m lacking confidence in backing him as a favorite. Lando Vannata by Decision

Alessandro Costa -400 vs Stewart Nicoll +300

• Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between Stewart Nicoll and Alessandro Costa. Bettors should be careful taking Costa here at these odds after he lost his previous fight as a -370 betting favorite. Costa appeared to slow and falter in that short notice matchup, perhaps partially due to a poor weight cut. It does appear that Costa looks healthier this week after making weight comfortably on Friday. Nicoll does not seem like quite as dynamic an opponent as Coria or some of Costa’s other foes. Good boxers have given Costa the most trouble but Nicoll tends to avoid throwing much volume on the feet. Costa is a very strong grappler at flyweight and likely much better than Nicoll on the mat. Costa is also a hard hitter with big power in his short hooks. He is a physical specimen at this weight with a very strong base. Nicoll will not be able to safely roll for legs or scramble to find escapes against Costa here on the mat. I am expecting the Brazilian to really make himself felt in these exchanges and scrambles on the mat. He is going to have the opportunity to finish Nicoll in this fight using ground and pound. I am expecting Nicoll to eventually fall apart here as Costa gets him flat onto the ground. Alessandro Costa by Round Two KO
• Nick: Alessandro Costa is relatively well rounded with five of his fourteen professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s extremely aggressive no matter where his fights go, but that sometimes comes at the expense of his defense. He’s a powerful striker and effective in scrambles, but his cardio and durability both do seem to be areas in which he can be exploited. Costa is 2-3 in the UFC, but it feels like he’s taking a considerable step down here in terms of level of competition. Nicoll has primarily fought for Beatdown Promotions, a relatively small regional promotion out of Australia. Nicoll finds a lot of his success striking at range and he has decent power for a flyweight. That being said his grappling is where he can outshine most opponents, as he has underrated BJJ and his wrestling seems to be improving. That being said, he is 0-2 in the UFC and he hasn’t been able to find any sort of success now that he’s taking on quality competition. Costa can be inconsistent, but he’s the much better fighter and should be the more potent finisher no matter where this one goes. Simply, it feels like Nicoll is in over his head here. Alessandro Costa by Round Two Submission

Thomas Petersen -110 vs Guilherme Pat -110

• Anthony: The prelims end at heavyweight with Guilherme Pat taking on Thomas Petersen. This is a very low-level fight but still I am expecting a compelling matchup. Pat is a dynamic striker at heavyweight while Petersen is more of a grinder that is looking to wrestle and take his fights to the ground. This clash of styles has yielded a fight that will close at near pick’em odds. I rarely am one to bet on Thomas Petersen but this seems like a good stylistic draw for him tonight. Pat has shown issues in terms of his ability to fight back to the feet when taken down. He really tends to struggle when it comes to stuffing the initial shot from opponents and building back up to his feet. This presents an issue for Pat in this particular bout since Petersen is, if nothing else, effective as a grappler. Since joining the promotion,Petersen has scored at least one takedown in all but one fight. He is also comfortable in clinch positions and while holding opponents up against the fence. Pat is a more dangerous striker than Petersen but he will need to worry about stuffing shots before he can let those hands go. I am expecting Petersen to outwork him here today and win this fight thanks to his grappling Thomas Petersen by Decision
• Nick: Thomas Petersen is 10-4 professionally, and at 30-years old he’s actually one of the younger heavyweights on the roster. Peterson is relatively well-rounded, but he can be tentative at times as he waits for fights to come for him. He has power on the feet, but he hasn’t really developed the ability to throw extended combinations. He’s a capable offensive wrestler, but he seems hesitant at times to lean on that part of his game. His cardio and durability are both questionable at best, but he does seem to be steadily improving. Guilherme Pat is lean for a heavyweight. He’s explosive on the feet, and he does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. As impressive as he’s been thus far, he really hasn’t been tested against UFC level competition. He did secure a KO win in his promotional debut, but he took on a low level opponent in Allen Frye Jr. and wasn’t able to find a finish against him there. As athletic as he is, he can be tentative at times. Additionally, his defensive grappling ability has yet to be tested. Pat will be dangerous early here, but I expect Peterson to build momentum as this fight wears on. He should be able to secure takedowns as Pat starts to fade. Thomas Petersen by Decision

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Jose Delano -300 vs Robert Buchala +240

• Anthony: The main card begins with featherweights Robert Ruchala and Jose Delano. This is the promotional debut for Delano who earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last summer. The Brazilian does seem like a solid athlete but this matchup against Buchala is rather tricky on paper. Buchala is known for his wide feet and stance switches against opponents. Delano will be working here from the orthodox while Buchala lands kicks and a wide variety of different weapons from range. His style is a bit of karate mixed with kickboxing attacks. However, Buchala is completely outgunned when compared to Delano and his boxing. I do not expect to see any sustained success from Buchala here standing up. Buchala also does not seem to have the wrestling to take an opponent like Delano down to the mat. He will be forced to strike here throughout this matchup and I think it will be very difficult for him to keep pace with an opponent landing much harder shots. Buchala will probably look his exact price here, fighting to a decision but not doing nearly enough to beat Delano. Jose Delano by Decision
• Nick: Jose Delano will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over a tough out in Manuel Exposito. Delano carries a 16-3 professional record into the UFC at 29 years old. Delano is a high-volume striker who fights at a torrid pace. He does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents, but his aggressive style does mean he is susceptible to being hit in exchanges. His wrestling leaves a lot to be desired, but he has dangerous BJJ offensively if he finds himself on the mat. He’s taken on quality regional competition having fought for Shooto Brasil and the LFA. Still, there is no denying he’s taking a step up in level of competition here in his promotional debut. Robert Ruchala is coming off a hard fought decision loss to William Gomis, which came in his UFC debut. Ruchala is 27 years old and 11-2 professionally, with three wins coming via KO and three coming by submission. While he’s relatively well-rounded, Ruchala is most dangerous on the feet where he does an excellent job mixing powerful and flashy kicks into his combinations. While his wrestling is somewhat unrefined in general, he has dangerous BJJ which he uses to find opportunistic finishes. The line feels wide here, but Delano has the technical advantages to edge this out on the scorecards. As long as he fights at the level he’s capable of, it feels like Ruchala will be outclassed more and more as this fight wears on. Jose Delano by Decision

Tommy McMillen -1000 vs Zanolo Zecchini +600

• Anthony: Next is a featherweight fight between Zanolo Zecchini and Tommy McMillen. It is the promotional debut for Tommy Gun who earned his contract last fall in a battle on Dana White’s Contender Series. McMillen is a disciple of Tim Welch training at Red Hawk Academy in Arizona. He is 9-0 and ready to compete at this level, mimicking the rise of teammate Sean O’Malley. McMillen has a very strong base in his wrestling, a three-time high school state wrestling champion. He does very well using grappling to finish fights with five total victories by way of submission. I trust him as a betting favorite because he has that grappling he can fall upon if ever hurt. McMillen also has fantastic cardio. On the feet, McMillen will have Zecchini totally outgunned. Zecchini will struggle to compete against McMillen at any range where he feels comfortable. McMillen is four-inches taller than Zecchini and much more diverse in terms of his striking attacks. I am completely overlooking Zecchini here for McMillen in his promotional debut. His striking will be on full display facing an opponent that will oblige him standing. This is a very favorable matchup for McMillen and I am expecting an early finish to materialize. He is my most confident pick to win at this event. Tommy McMillen by Round One KO
• Nick: Tommy McMillen will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over an unbeaten David Mgoyan by decision. McMillen enters this promotion with a 9=0 professional record, and he’s known for being one of the main training partners of former UFC Bantamweight Champion Sean O’Malley. McMillen has a very long frame and is effective offensively at range. He’s an opportunistic submission grappler, with five of his nine professional wins coming via submission. He has solid cardio and durability, but he can be hittable in exchanges as he’s more than willing to eat shots to return strikes of his own. As impressive as his win on the Contender Series was, that really was his only win over a quality opponent. At his best, Monolo Zecchini is a dangerous striker with surprising power for his frame. He is 11-4 professionally, but he’s been out of action since he was KO’d in his UFC debut against Morgan Charreire back in September of 2023. He has solid cardio and continues to show improvements at 29-years-old, but he’s likely outmatched in this spot. He’s small for the division and overly tentative against bigger and more aggressive opponents. The line here is comically off, as McMillen is still very raw as a prospect. That being said, I do expect he can find an early finish here. Zecchini does not seem to be of UFC level. Tommy McMillen by Round One Submission

Ethyn Ewing -150 vs Rafael Estevam +125

• Anthony: This is a fight at bantamweight between Ethyn Ewing and Rafael Estevam. Odds have shifted here near pick’em after Estevam had opened as the slight betting favorite. The Brazilian is 14-0 but his resume is not all that impressive upon some further investigation. Estevam has won three fights in a row via decision 29-28. He enters tonight’s fight after missing weight once again. The margin of victory has been very close for Estevam against lackluster bantamweights, and Estevam also missed weight in two appearances before. He seems to be a solid athlete with great fundamentals but not the killer drive that is needed to excel at this level. Ewing should be active throughout this fight and do enough to score two of these rounds at the very least. Ewing will easily eclipse Estevam’s striking numbers if this fight is solely taking place on the feet. Estevam will look to implement some takedowns here but Ewing has proven to be slippery and tough to hold onto the mat. I am expecting this to be a very competitive scrap with Ewing doing just a bit more than Estevam over these fifteen minutes. I am expecting the best round for Ewing to be in the third when he can really let his hands go and Estevam begins to tire. This fight will go to the scorecards and it is anyone’s guess as to who the judges pick to win. Ethyn Ewing by Decision
• Nick: Rafael Estevam is 14-0 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO and three via submission. He’s fought a decent level of competition regionally ,and he fights out of a solid camp via Nova União. He’s 3-0 in the UFC, but he’s moving up a weight class to bantamweight here after missing the flyweight limit in two of his last three fights. Estevam is a technically sound striker, but his grappling is where he finds most of his success. He has solid BJJ and takedown ability. His cardio seems to deplete at times, but his top pressure makes it difficult for his opponents to get back to their feet once he’s on top of them. Ethyn Ewing is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut which came via decision over Malcolm Wellmaker. He took that fight on just a few days’ notice, and up a weight class, as a replacement for the injured Cody Haddon. He’s small even at bantamweight,, but he carries surprising power for his frame. He has advanced footwork and when he’s at his best he does a good job forcing his opponents to fight moving backwards. Estevam will secure takedowns early here, but Ewing should be able to weaponize his cardio as he consistently works his way back to his feet. As long as he can survive any early danger, he should be live for a late finish as Estevam fades once again. Ethyn Ewing by Round Three KO

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev -1600 vs Brendson Ribeiro +800

• Anthony: Tonight’s featured bout is a light heavyweight matchup between Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev and Brendson Ribeiro. I cashed easily with Yakhyaev in his last fight, beating Raffael Cerqueira via submission in less than one minute total. Yakhyaev has now won four straight fights inside of one round. The young athlete is from Chechnya with perhaps a bright future ahead, but right now Yakhyaev has just been rushing opponents and stopping them thanks to his great power. We have still not seen Yakhyaev tested by an opponent who can hold their ground and withstand his first flurry of offense. Ribeiro does not seem likely to provide much resistance here against him. Ribeiro was finished in the first round of both of his last fights. It seems that his UFC tenure will end very soon and I think that is largely due to Ribeiro’s inability to defend himself intelligently on the mat. Yakhyaev can make this fight extremely easy by securing an early takedown and choking out Ribeiro. He is faster and much more powerful, giving him the edge here early when both athletes are the most dangerous. I am betting on Yakhyaev to get it done here by yet another early stoppage. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by Round One KO
• Nick: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is 8-0 professionally, coming off an impressive KO win over Rafael Cerqueira in his UFC debut. He’s generally well-rounded, with four professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. Yakhyaev is extremely aggressive and dangerous everywhere, but he’s yet to really face adversity at the professional level. He’s a gifted striker at range, and a cerebral wrestler, but he still has a lot to prove as he continues to climb the rankings at light heavyweight. Brendson Ribeiro is primarily a striker with a kill-or-be-killed level of aggression. He is extremely dangerous on the feet offensively, but he leaves himself open to be countered in exchanges. Fifteen of his sixteen professional wins have come via finish, and he has continued to show improvement on the mat. Ribeiro is a dangerous finisher no matter who he’s up against, but Yakhyaev is the better technical fighter no matter where this one goes. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by Round One Submission

Virna Jandiroba -120 vs Tabatha Ricci +100

• Anthony: The co-main event is a fight between Virna Jandiroba and Tabatha Ricci at strawweight. This matchup is an excellent tilt between grapplers, likely deciding who will be next to compete for a title very soon. Jandiroba is coming off a loss in a title fight against Mackenzie Dern last fall. Although that was a competitive matchup we saw Dern able to do enough over the course of five rounds to beat Jandiroba in several different areas. This matchup will likely be contested on the mat between these two elite jiu jitsu practitioners. Ricci is actually an interesting opponent for Jandiroba because of her great offensive wrestling. Ricci is very quick to pursue takedowns against opponents and usually does well establishing top position over them in order to win many rounds. Jandiroba will need to stay busy on bottom position here, sweeping Ricci and finding a way to be offensive with her own grappling attacks. I do like Jandiroba to get the win here this weekend but I am proceeding with much more confidence than I was betting on the Brazilian last year. Jandiroba is now 37 years old and suffering from pain in her knees and hips from a career fighting opponents on the mat. This fight closes near pick’em odds after Ricci was originally the favorite earlier in the week. Virna Jandiroba by Decision 
• Nick: Tabatha Ricci has solid cardio and can fight at a very fast pace. She’s well-rounded, but her BJJ and offensive grappling ability is certainly her most refined skill. Her wrestling and striking continue to show considerable improvement in each of her fights. As a result of her recent success, it seems the UFC is starting to put their marketing machine behind her. These are two very similar fighters, but Jandiroba is a bit bigger, stronger, and more technically advanced in both her striking and her grappling. Virna Jandiroba is most comfortable on the mat as a decorated BJJ black belt, but her entries for takedowns and her general wrestling ability can leave a lot to be desired. Virna Jandiroba is more than willing to eat punches to throw them. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her cardio has mostly held up at the UFC level. Her striking isn’t very refined, but she throws frequently enough to keep most of her opponents on the defensive. Ricci is skilled, but Jandiroba has similar skills and she has shown them off against a higher level of opponent. Another low confidence play, but I see Jandiroba as the value side in this one. Virna Jandiroba by Decision

Chris Duncan -160 vs Renato Moicano +135

• Anthony: The main event is a fight at lightweight between Chris Duncan and Renato Moicano. It is the first main event for Duncan who has really been a great addition to the roster these past few years. Duncan is now on a four fight winning streak with his only loss in the promotion coming against Manuel Torres. The Problem represents the people of Scotland but also a great gym at American Top Team. He is an athlete in his prime that has really proven to belong amongst this competition at lightweight. Duncan is a very gritty fighter who always loves to find the brawl. Moicano will likely give Duncan the fast start he hopes for in tonight’s matchup. These two have previously spent some rounds training together in Florida at the ATT gym. Moicano figures to have the edge here grappling but Duncan is a very powerful striker and opportunistic submission threat. I believe Duncan to be the rightful favorite in this matchup because of his more complete overall skillset. Yes, Moicano is a wizard when fights hit the mat but Duncan can likely escape from early takedowns and use the fence to keep Moicano from taking his back. I also believe that over the course of five rounds Duncan will continue to march forwards and throw shots toward Moicano. I would rather put my money on the more durable fighter here and Duncan is riding some undeniable momentum. This is a very tough matchup to predict but when I close my eyes and picture this main event I am expecting to see Duncan getting his hand raised at the end. Chris Duncan by Round Three KO
• Nick: Chris Duncan has one-shot KO power on the feet, but his aggressive style means that he is often open to being countered in exchanges. Duncan is 15-2 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. Having recently shifted camps to American Top Team, it’s encouraging to see Duncan fighting with more of an intelligent game plan and leaning more on his wrestling lately. This is especially important given the questions surrounding his durability. Duncan is entering this match-up on a solid four-fight win streak and he’ll be looking to build on that momentum here against his dangerous ATT teammate in Renato Moicano. Renato Moicano is an advanced BJJ black belt. He has outstanding offensive grappling and he does a good job scrambling into favorable positions against a wide-range of opponents. His greatest strengths are definitely shown on the mat, but he is comfortable striking both in the clinch and in open space. Moicano is the better technical fighter no matter where this one goes, but Moicano’s durability is certainly of some concern as he’s entering the twilight of his career. This is a fight I could certainly see going either way, but I find myself siding with the underdog. Duncan has been impressive, but Moicano has been competing against the best-of-the-best in this division and while he’s on a two-fight losing streak he’s not slowing down as fast as this line suggests. Duncan is very live to find an early KO, but if he can’t stay standing I expect he could be in trouble here. Renato Moicano by Round Three Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com