UFC London: Evloev vs Murphy – Full Card Analysis

UFC London: Evloev vs Murphy – 3.21.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night London: Evloev vs Murphy. Saturday we have a full slate of fights on deck from The O2 in London, England. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 67-23-0 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
• Nick: 62-28-0 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)

*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 3-20-2026 at 6pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 1:00pm EST

Shanelle Dyer -500 vs Ravena Oliveira +375

• Anthony: Opening the card is this women’s strawweight fight between Ravena Oliveira and Shanelle Dyer. This is a low-level piece of matchmaking meant to test the skills of the debuting Dyer. Dyer earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall despite competing in a losing effort. She seems to be building into a solid athlete still only 24 years old. Dyer is getting better with every performance and developing at Great Britain Top Team. Her boxing and handspeed will be an advantage in this fight against Oliveira. There is little threat coming back at Dyer competing against Oliveira on the feet. She should be able to unload with her combinations here. Oliveira will not be able to win this fight with her grappling and on the feet she is susceptible to getting hit with double the volume. She seems undersized and through two performances so far in the promotion she has not looked any good. There is no money to be made betting on this fight but Dyer seems like a safe pick to get this victory. Shanelle Dyer by Decision
• Nick: Shanelle Dyer will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a hard fought Contender Series loss to Carol Foro. Dyer is one of the only fighters to be awarded a UFC contract off a loss, but she stood toe to toe with Foro, keeping things close as she put out heavy volume on the feet. Dyer is 24 years old and 6-1 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO. She is relatively well-rounded, but she certainly prefers to stand and trade. She has surprising power for her frame, and excellent cardio and durability. Ravena Oliveira is 7-3-1 professionally, but only one of her wins has come over an opponent with a winning record. She is 0-2 in the UFC, coming off a submission loss to Stephanie Luciano. Oliveira’s regional film suggests she’s dangerous on the feet, with six of her seven wins coming via KO. Still, she hasn’t shown much since she was signed with the promotion. She can be dangerous, but she takes a lot of damage in lengthier exchanges. The low level nature of this match-up makes it somewhat volatile, but Dyer is the rightful favorite. She’s the more well-rounded fighter here with the better understanding of footwork. It is also notable that Oliveira missed weight and seemed to struggle with her weight cut for this matchup. Shanelle Dyer by Decision

Shem Rock -110 vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady -110

• Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight between Shem Rock and Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady. Shem Rock fought better than his +260 price when debuting last fall against Nurullo Aliev. It seems that there are winnable fights for Shem Rock in the UFC and this fight Al-Selwady is definitely one of them. He is at a clear striking advantage here facing Al-Selwady who is rather plain. I think we will see Shem Rock controlling the distance standing and landing the better kickboxing attacks. Al-Selwady is pretty consistent to predict but his overall ceiling is limited. He trains under Sayif Saud at Fortis MMA and seems like a complete product. His jiu jitsu is at a rather high level and the grappling that we see Al-Selwady display should work to great effect here against Shem Rock. He is the stronger fighter and seemingly much more durable. I think Al-Selwady will push a pace in this fight that Shem Rock will fail to keep. Grappling exchanges will be in favor of Al-Selwady and I would expect that Shem Rock tires out as Al-Selwady gets the chance to fight his style of fight. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady by Decision 
• Nick: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady is 15-4 professionally, with eight wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He fights out of an excellent camp via Fortis MMA, but he has been out of action since his promotional debut, a fight he dropped to Loik Radzhabov back in March of 2024. Al-Sewady fights at a very fast pace and he does a good job targeting the weaknesses of his opponents. His cardio failed him in his UFC debut, but historically it had been more of a strength than a weakness for him. Shem Rock enters this match-up with a solid 12-2-1 professional record at 32 years old, but it is notable he is coming off a UFC debut loss to Nurullo Aliev. He fights out of Next Generation MMA Liverpool with the likes of Paddy Pimblett and Molly McCann. Like his teammate Pimblett, Rock is primarily a grappler. He is still developing that part of this game overall, but he is an opportunistic submission grappler and he has shown excellent ground-and-pound striking ability. Rock is tough with solid cardio and durability, but nothing he does is technically sound and he tends to only truly thrive in chaos. This is one of the lower level match-ups on the card. I slightly prefer the Rock side given Al-Selwady’s long layoff. It should also help that Rock will be fighting in front of his home crowd. Shem Rock by Decision

Brando Pericic -250 vs Louie Sutherland +200

• Anthony: Here is a heavyweight matchup between Brando Pericic and Loie Sutherland. This is a rather low-level bout as neither man has proven capable of beating more skilled opponents. Sutherland is very mediocre, plodding forward but also offering little offense apart from with his hands. In this fight Pericic has more than a three-inch reach advantage. Sutherland seems to be in very poor shape as he tips the scales near the heavyweight limit. Pericic is much lighter on his feet and better at connecting with his kickboxing. I expect to see a pretty clear speed advantage for Pericic in this fight. Sutherland may be tough enough to last late into this one but I think Pericic will pretty clearly beat him here today. Pericic is better than Sutherland in terms of his wrestling and I think he will also be better conditioned. It is always dangerous to bet on low-level heavyweights but Pericic figures to shine here in this particular matchup. Brando Pericic by Round One KO
• Nick: Brandon Pericic is 5-1 professionally and 31-years old, with all five of his wins coming via first round finish. Pericic fights out of City Kickboxing, and he certainly finds most of his success at striking range. Pericic is an aggressive pressure style fighter who puts power behind all of his strikes. As dangerous as he is offensively, Pericic’s style does often leave him exposed in lengthy exchanges and while his grappling continues to improve, defensively he still leaves a lot to be desired. He’s coming off a win in his UFC debut over a relatively low level opponent in Elisha Ellison. Louie Sutherland enters this match-up with a 10-4 professional record at 32 years-old. Primarily a striker, eight of Sutherland’s ten professional wins have come via KO. Sutherland fights out of Scotland, having spent most of his career fighting for Levels Fight League. While his level of competition there leaves a lot to be desired, he has also fought for notable promotions via PFL and Bellator. He’s coming off an ugly loss via heel hook to Valter Walker in his UFC debut, but there is no denying the fact this match-up should be a bit more favorable stylistically. Ellison is the better striker here, but I expect Sutherland can weather an early storm and start to pull away here by pursuing takedowns and forcing this fight to take place up against the cage. A low level match-up and a low confidence play, but I’m seeing value on this underdog. Louie Sutherland by Decision

Mantas Kondratavicius -750 vs Antonio Trocoli +525

• Anthony: Here is a good matchup at middleweight between Mantas Kondratavicius and Antonio Trocoli. It seems that Trocoli is once again being used as a promotional tool and B-side of this fight. He is 0-3 in his UFC appearances so far. Kondratavicius is a decent prospect worth watching at 8-1 overall as a professional. He does well keeping opponents at the end of his reach and utilizing his length to win fights at distance. I like him presenting his jab early to open more combinations off of the jab and double-jab. Kondratavicius also has a thunderous right hand that he often relies on to finish fights. I think that Kondratavicius has much more firepower compared to Trocoli. We have seen Trocoli shell up and react poorly when fights are not going his way. Kondratavicius is much faster than him and better in terms of technical striking. His kickboxing will likely overwhelm Trocoli as these two get after it exchanging their best shots. I do not expect this fight to go much longer than five or six minutes. Trocoli has proven that he does not belong competing at this level. Mantas Kondratavicius by Round One KO
• Nick: Mantas Kondratavičius will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO of Dani Barber. Kondratavičius is 8-1 professionally at 26 years old. He enters as a highly regarded and well-rounded prospect fighting out of Lithuania. Kondratavičius has solid fundamentals, a good understanding of footwork on the feet and he generally does a good job picking his opponents apart at distance. His grappling seems to be improving, especially defensively, but there is no denying he mostly prefers to stand and trade on the feet. Antonio Trocoli enters this fight with a 12-6 record at 35 years-old. He is relatively well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. Five of his wins have come via submission and four have come via KO. While he is gifted athletically, he is 0-3 in the UFC and likely fighting to hold his roster spot here as a heavy underdog. He seems to be increasingly tentative as his career has been extended, so he’s no longer the potent finisher that he was on the regional scene. Trocoli has been struggling of late, and it seems he may be checking out as a fighter in favor of pursuing a career in professional poker. Kondratavicius is somewhat unproven, but all signs point to him being a prospect worth keeping an eye on. I expect he passes this test with flying colors here in his promotional debut. Mantas Kondratavicius by Round One KO

Mario Pinto -900 vs Felipe Franco +600

• Anthony: Next is a heavyweight matchup between Mario Pinto and Felipe Franco. Pinto is one of several undefeated fighters competing today with a record of 11-0. He is a big, strong fighter from Portugal training locally here in London, England. He is very proficient in terms of his boxing and weapons on the feet. The Brazilian Franco will pose little threat to Pinto here. I think he is undersized and likely to feel small here opposing the more skilled Pinto. This is a big step up in competition for Franco. Pinto is surprisingly light on his feet and comfortable in striking exchanges. While Franco will throw down with Pinto here boxing, Pinto does connect with more power and has weapons to close the distance against him. Pinto is listed as having a three-inch reach advantage and I really think that he uses his length much better than Franco. It would not surprise me to see Pinto eat some heavy shots in order to return big and land a knockdown of his own. He is the rightful favorite to win here but these odds have gotten out of hand. I am not going to bet on these heavyweights laying -900 odds. Mario Pinto by Round One KO
• Nick: Mario Pinto is 11-0 professionally, and extremely young for the division at just 28 years old. Primarily a striker, seven of his professional wins have come via KO, including a KO win over Jhonata Diniz his last time out. He has decent cardio and he’s going to be athletic for the division, but his defensive grappling seems to be a work in progress. Additionally, he telegraphs most of his strikes and he’s yet to be tested extensively against top tier competition. Felipe Franco will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for the injured Mick Parkin. Franco is 10-1 professionally at 25 years old, but he’s only found success against an extremely low level of opponent. He’s athletically gifted and a potent finisher, but he’s hittable in exchanges. Pinto is going to outsize Franco significantly here, and it is notable is taking this fight on very short notice. I expect Pinto to dominate this fight on the feet as he justifies this price as a heavy favorite. Mario Pinto by Round One KO

Losene Keita -240 vs Nathaniel Wood +190

• Anthony: Here is a featherweight fight between Nathaniel Wood and Losene Keita. This is going to be a battle between two very highly skilled martial artists. Keita is a handful for anyone at this weight class given his power and great boxing skills. Wood is more diverse with his attacks, landing more leg kicks and winning in the clinch. Wood is underrated in terms of his wrestling skills and ability to mix in grappling as needed. He’s very much a live underdog here. Black Panther Losene Keita seemed like a problem emerging as a two-weight champion in Oktagon. However, Keita is now making his promotional debut after more than a full year layoff. Wood represents a significant step up in competition for Keita and he will be a load to handle. Wood always brings the fight to his opponents and continues marching forward in rounds two and three. His record in the UFC is 10-3, including underdog victories in both of his previous appearances. Wood may not emerge victorious here but I like him as the value side of this matchup if I am going to bet on either. Wood can take this decision by landing higher volume than Keita and chopping away at him with attacks from range. Nathaniel Wood by Decision
• Nick: Losene Keita will be making his UFC debut here, as one of the more highly regarded prospects to break into the promotion this year. Keita is 16-1 professionally, having captured both the Featherweight and Lightweight Titles in a respectable regional promotion via OKTAGON MMA. At 28 years-old, Keita’s only professional loss came via foot injury. He’s an explosive striker who fights out of a Muay Thai style and stance, and he carries true KO power in all of his limbs. He’s a gifted athlete who is as quick as he is explosive. His grappling continues to improve as a BJJ Purple Belt, but there is no denying he prefers to stand and swing in most of his fights. Nathaniel Wood has crisp striking and he throws intelligent combinations on the feet. He forces a serious pace and puts constant pressure on his opponents. At his best, he can put out serious volume while mixing in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing. His conditioning has been solid lately, but we have seen him fade late in fights earlier on in his career. This fight should be extremely competitive, so the price is far too wide to back the favorite with any sort of confidence. If Wood can stay standing he can edge this one out, but I do expect Keita can put him out in an extended exchange. Losene Keita by Round Two KO

Mason Jones -130 vs Axel Sola +110

• Anthony: The featured prelim is this bout at lightweight between Axel Sola and Mason Jones. Both men enter on win streaks and carry the flag for their country with confidence. France has Axel Sola still unbeaten at 11-0-1. He is a very well-rounded fighter with solid boxing and great skills finishing fights on the mat. I am interested to see how wrestling exchanges play out between these two fighters. Jones is the better defensive grappler but he also has scored ten takedowns of his own in his previous two fights. On the feet these two both tend to throw with all of their power. This is going to be an extremely competitive fight. Sola was victorious in his last fight against another Welsh fighter in Rhys McKee. I consider Jones to be a bit more durable and stronger when compared to Sola. Cardio has not been an issue for Jones at lightweight and he should be the one pushing a very high pace here in today’s scrap. It makes sense that this fight is near pick’em odds but I also agree that Jones should be slightly favored. His boxing will likely be the difference here as he forces Sola to fight for long periods on the feet. Mason Jones by Decision
• Nick: Mason Jones was once one of the more highly regarded prospects in the division, but he was cut from the UFC after suffering a decision loss to a tough out in L’udovid Klein back in 2022. Since then, he’s strung together six straight victories, including a win over Bolaji Oki his last time out. He carries a black belt in BJJ, Judo and kickboxing. He’s a very well-rounded fighter with no singular standout skill, but he’s shown finishing ability against a decent level of regional competition. Jones is the former lightweight and welterweight Cage Warriors champion. He sometimes leaves himself open to counter-shots as his aggressive style isn’t matched by technical prowess, but he is advanced enough as a boxer to hang with a good chunk of this division. Axel Sola enters this match-up with an 11-0-1 professional record at just 28 years old. A former Ares FC Lightweight Champion fighting out of France, he’s coming off an impressive KO win over Rhys Mckee which came in his UFC debut. Sola is relatively well rounded, but finds most of his success at striking range. Six of his eleven professional wins have come via KO. Sola is a southpaw boxer who does a good job throwing in combination. He’s competent on the mat, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against high level wrestlers or grapplers. He has solid footwork and he has shown an ability to weaponize his cardio at times, but there is no denying he’s taking a step up in competition here against Jones. Jones is hittable, but he should have the durability required here to extend this fight and mix in his grappling. It is a low confidence play, but I’m leaning with the favorite. Mason Jones by Decision

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Kurtis Campbell -240 vs Danny Silva +190

• Anthony: Our main card begins with this featherweight fight between Danny Silva and Kurtis Campbell. This is the debut for Campbell after earning a contract last year on Dana White’s Contender Series. He is an undefeated fighter from Liverpool with great fundamentals and a bright future ahead. I do believe in Campbell as a prospect but to be honest his record thus far is not impressive in terms of competition. Campbell has looked good styling on very low-level opponents that cannot handle his speed. Silva will provide a legitimate test to gauge exactly how good Campbell is. These are two very lengthy strikers that will engage in a scrap here on the feet. Campbell should be able to take the lead here and win exchanges thanks to his great kickboxing instinct. However, Campbell will struggle to finish a tougher opponent like Silva. This matchup will see Campbell extended into the later rounds and forced to fight after absorbing some real punches early on. I think this is a favorable opponent for Campbell to showcase his skills and prove that he is ready to compete at this level. Kurtis Campbell by Decision
• Nick: Kurtis Campbell will be making his UFC debut here, with an 8-0 professional record at 23 years old. He’s coming off an impressive win on Contender Series which came via KO of Demba Seck, and six of his eight professional wins have come via finish. Campbell is a fan favorite fighting out of Liverpool, England. He fights at a torrid pace, he keeps pressure on his opponents, and his opportunistic submission grappling has fans already comparing him to another Liverpool product in Paddy Pimblett. As talented as he is, he has been shaken on the feet in many of his fights, and he’s still somewhat unproven against quality level opponents. Danny Silva is primarily a striker. He is 10-2 professionally, with five of those wins coming via KO. He’s a decent grappler, but it’s rare he leans on that part of his game. He throws out a lot of volume on the feet and he does well striking at range, but he’s hittable in lengthy exchanges. This fight should play out much closer than the line suggests, but Silva isn’t likely dangerous enough to put Campbell away here. In front of his homecrowd, I do see the debutant as the rightful favorite. He’s the better grappler with the better process on the feet. Kurtis Campbell by Round Three Submission

Christian Leroy Duncan -450 vs Roman Dolidze +350

• Anthony: This is a good matchup at middleweight between Roman Dolidze and Christian Leroy Duncan. Fans will remember Dolidze most recently for his main event showing against Anthony Hernandez. Dolidze is looking to bounce back from that loss but now finds himself as a massive underdog in this matchup. In terms of styles I think Dolidze actually could utilize his grappling to make this an interesting bout. Duncan is much better than Dolidze when standing but the Georgian fighter could score takedowns and put Duncan into uncomfortable grappling situations here. I find myself picking Duncan again with confidence since he has given me no reason to stay away. Duncan is a very composed fighter that patiently waits to land his powerful strikes and counter attacks. He has earned back to back wins by knockout in this division and his striking is again technically superior to Dolidze. Duncan has averaged 69 percent takedown defense and tends to punish his opponents that shoot in. He is going to be much quicker than Dolidze, switching stances and landing strikes on both sides. I am picking Duncan to win by knockout or via one-sided decision. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round Two KO
• Nick: Christian Leroy Duncan is 13-2 professionally, with ten of his wins coming via KO. He’s a dynamic striker who has shown serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He’s extremely athletic with creative flying and spinning attacks in his arsenal. He does an excellent job leading his opponents into traps, and he’s explosive out of breaks. As excellent as he is on the feet, his defensive grappling is still a major hole in his game. Leroy Duncan is the more technically sound striker in this match-up, but it will be important for him to keep this fight standing. Roman Dolidze packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also a decorated grappler as an ADCC Asia & Oceania Champion. As talented as he is, Dolidze is one of the more inconsistent fighters on the roster. He is a potent finisher and he’s dangerous everywhere, but his instincts and general fight IQ are certainly weaknesses for him more than they are strengths. I expect Dolidze to look good early here, but he’s going to fade if he can’t find an early takedown. Leroy Duncan should be able to win this fight at range, and he’s certainly live to finish this fight late. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round Three KO

Iwo Baraniewski -550 vs Austen Lane +400

• Anthony: Next is a fight at light heavyweight between Austen Lane and Iwo Baraniewski. Lane is a huge underdog once again in this fight as he faces an undefeated fighter out of Poland. Baraniewski’s debut will be one for the ages as he beat Ibo Aslan in the most action packed 90 seconds of last year. Baraniewski rallied to win that fight despite being knocked down twice in the very first minute. He is a brawler but also a very skilled fighter with good handspeed and power. Baraniewski can land tight combinations and overcome issues of reach like this matchup without issue. Lane will not be able to stand in the pocket and absorb many shots from Baraniewski. I do not know why Lane has made the cut down to light heavyweight but I doubt the move will improve his durability. Lane has been finished in four of his last five appearances. I expect to see him badly knocked out once again in this fight. Baraniewski may get clinched for a few brief moments here early when pressuring Lane. I think Baraniewski will score another highlight finish as soon as he can separate from Lane and set up a few clean shos. Baraniewski is one of my most confident picks to win on this card. Iwo Baraniewski by Round One KO
• Nick: Iwo Baraniewski enters this match-up with a 7-0 professional record and all of those wins coming via first round finish. Primarily a striker, Baraniewski is an explosive puncher with a muscular but compact frame. He’s extremely aggressive and has KO power in all of his limbs. He’s small for the division, but he has a solid chin and his striking in the pocket is levels above a good chunk of this division. Austen Lane is moving down to light heavyweight here, but he should still be athletic for the division as a former NFL defensive lineman. He throws powerful strikes, he has decent offensively grappling ability, but his skills are still rough around the edges as he’s starting his MMA career on the back half of his athletic prime. Lane will have a chance here if he can mix in some grappling and extend this fight into the later rounds. That being said, he has questionable durability as six of his seven losses have come via KO. This size difference here will be dramatic, but Lane cutting down in weight likely spells trouble for his already suspect chin/durability. I expect Baraniewski to find a quick KO as soon as he crashes the pocket. Iwo Baraniewski by Round One KO

Michael Venum Page -190 vs Sam Patterson +160

• Anthony: This should be a fun fight at welterweight between Sam Patterson and Michael Venum Page. Page is moving back down to welterweight for this matchup against the rising contender Patterson. We have seen Patterson now win four straight fights all by stoppage in the very first round. He is quick to secure wins via choke and I worry about the threat of his grappling here facing Page. These two men were formerly training partners and Page has mentioned getting caught on the mat by Patterson before. I think there will be urgency by both athletes here to fight exactly at the range that they are comfortable. Page needs to establish his distance here early and land clean strikes on Patterson before he can get close. Patterson has only ever fought to a decision in two fights before. He is likely going to win in round one against Page or instead get finished by strikes here ahead of the final horn. Patterson is powerful in terms of his striking but overall very sloppy. Page should be a step quicker than him and likely to land more of the strikes that count. I do not want to bet money on Page here as the favorite but it feels like he will win this fight in vintage fashion with a knockout. Michael Venum Page by Round Two KO
• Nick: Page has spent most of his career fighting for Bellator, against a relatively quality level of opponent. Page is a gifted striker who fights out of a wide karate style stance. He throws a lot of feints to set up his power shots. He has power in all of his limbs, fights well behind his length/reach, and he generally does an excellent job countering and fighting off his back foot when he needs to. Twelve of Page’s professional wins have come via KO. He has excellent durability and he’s difficult to takedown, but he has had issues against grapplers in the past. Sam Patterson is 14-2-1 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and seven coming via submission. He has a long frame for the division, but his striking defense is generally flawed as his chin is there to be hit in exchanges. He’s decent everywhere offensively, he has an effective choke series, and he wisely looks to grapple aggressively in most of his match-ups. Patterson is live to score a submission here if he can take this fight to the mat, but it seems more likely Page can pick him apart at range. This match-up is as volatile as it is binary, but I’m siding with the vet. Michael Venum Page by Decision

Luke Riley -210 vs Michael Aswell +175

• Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at featherweight between Luke Riley and Michael Aswell. This is a good matchup to showcase Riley here on the card taking place in London. Riley is a 12-0 prospect from England training at Next Generation MMA Liverpool. He earned a Performance of the Night bonus in his promotional debut, stopping Bogdan Grad by knockout to win after a tough first round. Riley’s striking is very high level and I think his kickboxing will prove to be too much for Aswell. This should be a willing dance partner for Riley, as Aswell tends to move forward and throw boxing combinations every chance that he gets. He is a very high volume striker but not heavy handed or the most careful with his footwork. Aswell puts himself in position to be hit too often to feel comfortable in this matchup against Riley. I expect to see Riley put down Aswell by using his knees and mixing in different weapons in this fight. He is a much more accurate striker and more powerful in terms of ending fights. Aswell has never been finished before but it would not surprise me to see Riley score another knockout victory here. Luke Riley by Decision
• Nick: Luke Riley enters this match-up with a 12-0 record at 26 years old. He fights out of Next Generation MMA Liverpool with the likes of Paddy Pimblett and Molly McCann. Prior to his recent UFC debut, Riley’s entire professional career had been fought for the Cage Warriors promotion in England. He’s primarily a striker, with nine of his professional wins coming via KO. He has surprising power for his frame, he fights at a torrid pace and he’s especially dangerous striking out of breaks. His defensive grappling is questionable at best, but he is coming off an impressive KO win over Bogdan Grad in his UFC debut. Michael Aswell is 11-3 professionally and just 25 years old. He is primarily a striker, with six of his eleven professional wins coming via KO. He has primarily fought for a quality regional promotion in Fury FC, and his losses have come to a relatively high level of competition. He suffered a loss to Bolaji Oki in his UFC debut,but he bounced back nicely his last time out, recording an impressive KO over Lucas Almeida. Aswell does a good job forcing a pace in most of his fights. He can be hittable in exchanges, but he puts out a lot of volume and he generally does a good job building momentum as his fights wear on. This should be a fun match-up and I expect it plays out much closer than the line suggests. Riley is a talented athlete, but he’s still far from developed in his abilities. Aswell can keep this close, but I do slightly prefer the favorite to edge out a narrow decision win in front of his home crowd. Luke Riley by Decision

Movsar Evloev -250 vs Lerone Murphy +200

• Anthony: The main event is a fight at featherweight between Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev. The man that wins this fight will be the division’s top contender, unbeaten and likely fighting for the title by year end. Evloev is 19-0 overall with great grappling and offensive wrestling. This matchup features his high pressure grappling against Murphy’s takedown defense and better offensive striking. We will see Evloev rinse and repeat with his takedowns here throughout this five round fight. Murphy will have his moments here, scoring with his boxing and combination striking when upright but also battling off Evloev as he pursues one takedown after another. Murphy has 51 percent takedown defense while ceding six takedowns total in his last two fights. Opponents can often get to Murphy’s hips quickly and find ways to drive him to the mat at this weight. Murphy does well fighting back to his feet and here Evloev will not hurt him or really capitalize on the takedowns that he does score. It will be interesting to see how both men manage their cardio over these five rounds. This will likely be a fight that goes to decision with Movsar meeting his takedown average and scoring at least seven or eight. The judges will ultimately decide if they value Evloev’s control time or the damage scored by Murphy during striking exchanges. Murphy is a good value bet as the underdog and somebody that I will consider playing as a live bet in this fight. Evloev will be pushing a very fast pace and rounds may become harder for him here as he tires and Murphy continues to make him work. Movsar Evloev by Decision
• Nick: Mosvar Evloev is an extremely talented featherweight contender. He comes into this match-up at an undefeated 19-0 with notable wins over Dan Ige, Diego Lopes, Arnold Allen, and most recently Aljamain Sterling. He’s a dangerous technical striker but most of his success comes on the mat as he’s one of the best wrestlers in the division. He doesn’t have the best top control, but he’s more than willing to pursue takedowns relentlessly and he generally does a good job forcing his opponents to fight on the mat against their will. Lerone Murphy is a well-rounded fighter with impressive speed and an excellent gas tank. He comes into this fight with a 17-0-1 professional record, having won each of his last seven fights under the UFC banner. Murphy is a gifted striker with enough grappling ability, both offensively and defensively, to hang with the majority of the division. He has developed a reputation as a slow starter and his volume seems low at times, but he’s shown to have a fairly high fight IQ as his fights wear on and he can be very dangerous once he starts building momentum. Murphy will be live for the upset if Evloev’s cardio doesn’t hold over the course of five rounds, but outside of a late comeback finish this feels like a brutal stylistic match-up for him here. Evloev averaged nearly five takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Murphy has just a 51 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Movsar Evloev by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com