UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev – Full Card Analysis

UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev – 3.8.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev. The event is headlined by Alex Pereira as he looks to win his fifth straight title fight at light heavyweight. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 54-29-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 51-32-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-7-2024 at 7pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Djorden Santos -200 vs Ozzy Diaz +160

• Anthony: Opening the card is this middleweight fight between Ozzy Diaz and Djorden Santos. This is the UFC debut for Santos who earned his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall. The Brazilian is 10-1 as a professional with his only career loss coming up at light heavyweight. Diaz is a good opponent to debut against as he always brings the fight. All of Diaz’ career bouts have ended inside of the distance. He is very aggressive, chasing down opponents and looking to connect with his hands. He has a slight reach advantage over Santos and I expect him to fight with the same vigor he always does. Diaz will either find an early victory here by knockdown or else I fear Santos will take over with his own striking. Santos is not nearly the same power threat as Diaz but he is going to be landing the more consistent offensive attacks. Diaz is a very live underdog that could be played at the current odds. I will be betting that this fight does not go the full fifteen minute distance. Santos seems durable but Diaz is going to make this into a slugfest right from the start. Djorden Santos by Round Two KO
• Nick: Djorden Santos will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win by decision over a tough out in Will Currie. At 27 years old, Santos is 10-1 professionally. He’s generally well rounded, with three wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. Ozzy Diaz is primarily a striker, with seven of his professional wins having come via KO. He fights out of a solid camp via Kings MMA, but he’s coming off a brutal loss in his UFC debut in which he was KO’d by Mingyang Zhang in the first round. Diaz is getting a late start to his UFC career as he’s 34-years old, but he’s taken on a solid level of regional competition having primarily fought for LFA. This is a low level match-up which makes it a difficult fight to call. I’ll take a shot on Diaz as the underdog here. Santos doesn’t seem to have KO power and Diaz’s greatest weakness is his durability. It also seems Diaz could be undervalued in this spot as he’s moving down a weight class and appears to be in excellent shape coming into this match-up. I’d rather bet this fight not to go the distance than bet either side, but I do see some value on the underdog. Ozzy Diaz by Round Two KO

John Castaneda -110 vs Chris Gutierrez -110

• Anthony: Next is a fight between John Castaneda and Chris Gutierrez. This booking came together on short notice after Castaneda was scheduled to face Douglas Silva de Andrade last weekend. Castaneda got news of his opponent’s illness after already making the bantamweight limit. This week he instead faces Gutierrez at 145 pounds. Castaneda would be smart to utilize his grappling skills here against a more talented striker. Often we see Castaneda primarily engaging opponents with his boxing but that is not going to be the best gameplan as he now draws into Gutierrez. We have seen much better performances from Gutierrez on the feet. He possesses more power than Castaneda and mixes his attacks better, going more often to the body and using his kicks. Gutierrez has had problems when it comes to defending takedowns and getting back up. Castaneda could lean on his grappling to win this fight but I would rather put my money on Gutierrez. I expect a large portion of the bout to take place on the feet where Gutierrez is faster and more dangerous. Chris Gutierrez by Decision
• Nick: John Castenada does a good job switching stances. He’s a technical striker that manages distance well. He’s a competent grappler, but he’s certainly most content to stand and exchange on the feet. He’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to a tough out in Daniel Marcos, and he is 4-3 in the UFC. Castenada is dangerous offensively, but his aggressive style makes him vulnerable to counters and it often compromises his gas tank. Chris Gutierrez’s greatest strength is certainly his ability to throw devastating leg kicks. More than 50% of the strikes he’s thrown in the UFC are leg kicks and he’s shown he can utilize this attack effectively against a wide range of opponents. He is 9-2-1 across his last twelve fights, most recently securing a narrow decision win over a short notice opponent in Quan Le. Guiterrez’s leg kicks make him dangerous against anyone, Castenada should be able to lean on a considerable grappling advantage in this match-up. Castenada averages 1.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and with this fight taking place at 145 pounds I do expect his cardio will allow him to lean on that part of his game. This is a low confidence play, but I do see Castenada as the rightful favorite. John Castaneda by Decision

Mairon Santos -300 vs Francis Marshall +240

• Anthony: This is a fight at featherweight between Mairon Santos and Francis Marshall. Santos stood out among featherweights for me when it comes to this past season of The Ultimate Fighter. The Brazilian has relocated to Las Vegas and now trains full time with Erick Nicksick at Xtreme Couture. His striking is very good with excellent feints and hard connections with intent. He has a diverse arsenal of attacks, chopping away at opponent’s legs and also engaging with his muay thai. He is too sound technically to cede much to Marshall in terms of these striking optics. This will be a tougher fight for Santos than his last against Kaan Ofli, but I still think Marshall will struggle here against the stronger athlete. Marshall will need to convert takedowns and disrupt Santos’ striking in order to win. He has showcased some grappling skills but Marshall lacks good wrestling technique. I think he will struggle to get in close enough to drag Santos down to the ground. The precision striking of Santos could result in a late knockout but he is more likely to win comfortably on the scorecards. Mairon Santos by Decision
• Nick: In his last fight Mairon Santos secured a UFC contract, as he defeated Kaan Ofli to win The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 tournament final at featherweight. Mairon Santos is a 24 year old Brazilian fighter that enters this match-up with a 14-1 professional record. He’s big for the division, but he’s had issues making weight consistently. Santos is primarily a striker who throws a lot of kicks to start his combinations. His footwork is sound defensively, but he has a habit of keeping his hands down which can lead to him taking a lot of damage from counter shots. He throws an explosive and effective leg kick, and he has already shown that he has true KO power in both of his hands. While there is no denying the fact he’s dangerous on the feet, his willingness to engage creates openings for his opponents to take him down. His defensive grappling is rapidly improving, but against powerful wrestlers he could have issues keeping his fights standing. Francis Marshall is 25-years old and 8-2 professionally. He’s well-rounded as an effective offensive striker, but four of his eight professional wins have actually come via rear naked choke. Marshall recently shifted camps to American Top Team which is certainly going to expedite his improvement. He’s coming off a narrow decision win over Dennis Buzukja. Marshall will have a grappling advantage here, but Santos’ takedown defense seems to be improving at a rapid rate. I’m siding with the favorite to mostly keep this fight standing where he should be able to win a convincing decision landing not only more volume on the feet, but also the more powerful and impactful strikes. Marion Santos by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Carlos Leal -700 vs Alex Morono +500

• Anthony: Here is a fight at welterweight between Alex Morono and Carlos Leal. This is the second appearance for Leal who made his debut at UFC 308. It was an impressive showing for him on short notice, nearly beating Rinat Fakhretdinov after a very competitive three rounds. Leal has great upper body strength and the ability to fight through positions rather easily against grapplers in this weight class. Morono is a talented jiu jitsu practitioner but we have not seen him wrestle much at all through his previous few showings. It seems that Morono is slowing down considerably now at age 34. He lost both previous appearances and Leal is the rightful favorite here against him. Neither one of these two hit with serious power but Leal seems to be much more durable. He is better at battling through adversity and throwing punches in moments that we have seen Morono conversely shell up. While Morono has maintained his high striking output, his accuracy is low and he is landing fewer quality shots. He will try to apply pressure and move forward against Leal but I still think his chance of winning is minimal. This is not a fight I am interested in betting on. Carlos Leal by Decision
• Nick: Carlos Leal is coming off a loss in his UFC debut to Rinat Fakhretdinov, but many felt he was robbed of a decision in that fight as he outstruck one of the division’s more highly regarded prospects. Leal made a splash with the PFL, breaking into the welterweight tournaments off a win on their Challenger Series, and eventually advancing to the semi-finals in the million dollar welterweight tournament. Leal is 21-6 professionally, with ten of his professional wins coming via KO. Primarily a striker, Leal is more than willing to eat shots to return them. He has one-shot knockout power, but his kill-or-be-killed style makes him a difficult fighter to back with any confidence. Alex Morono is a well rounded fighter, but his greatest strengths are likely his sheer grit and toughness. He always moves forward, even when he’s taking damage. He has solid cardio, underrated power, and he’s well-versed on the mat as a BJJ black belt. Morono is a coach at Fortis MMA, and he has one of the better minds for the sport at welterweight. In spite of his strengths, Morono is anything but athletic and at 34-years old he does seem to be entering the twilight of his career. Morono may be the better technical fighter here, but he’s far past his prime and his durability seems to be declining rapidly. Leal is massive for the division, and he once again appears to be in outstanding shape entering this matchup. The moneyline here feels inflated, but I do expect Leal to find a finish on the feet. Carlos Leal by Round Two KO

Armen Petrosyan -140 vs Brunno Ferreira +115

• Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Brunno Ferreira and Armen Petrosyan. This should be a very exciting matchup with both men eager to get into a brawl. Petrosyan is the better technical striker when it comes to comparing the skills of these two. He has high-level kickboxing skills, mixing his attacks well and using feints to set up his more powerful attempts. He is considerably taller than Ferreira and that size advantage should allow Petrosyan better control of distance here tonight. Ferreira is an intimidating opponent with serious power in both hands. He is a bit reliant on the knockout to win, but Ferreira is as dangerous as any other middleweight for the first five minutes. This is certainly a tough fight to predict given the early volatility. I’d like to trust Petrosyan with my money here but his durability is a huge red flag. Both previous losses have seen Petrosyan finished with his last defeat coming via a nasty KO. It will become a much easier matchup for Petrosyan as round two begins and Ferreira starts to tire. Petrosyan will not have to worry about fading here as long as this fight remains on the feet. I think he will land more clean shots to score that late finish against Ferreira. Armen Petrosyan by Round Three KO
• Nick: Brunno Ferreira is a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his overall athletic ability. He is 3-2 in the UFC, coming off a submission loss to Abus Magomedov. Ferreira was competitive for most of that fight, but his cardio started to fade and he was caught in a choke on the mat. While he does have decent grappling ability, there is certainly no denying the fact that Ferreira prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he does a good job countering and finding openings to land his bigger shots. Armen Petrosyan is a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and outstanding speed. He manages range well, has outstanding footwork, and five of his eight professional wins have come via KO. He is 3-3 under the UFC banner, most recently falling via highlight reel KO to a talented up and comer in Shara Magomedov. As talented as he is on the feet, his defensive grappling ability is a major weakness as he shows a terrible 31% takedown defense so far in the UFC. On the feet, Petrosyan is going to have a major technical advantage in this match-up. He puts out ridiculous volume and he does a good job forcing his opponents to fight off their back foot. That being said, I don’t mind taking a shot on Ferreira as an underdog. I expect he’ll look like a favorite here if he leans on his grappling, and his KO power can make him competitive early if this fight stays at striking range. A low confidence play, but I’m comfortable chasing some value in this one. Brunno Ferreira by Round Two KO

Joshua Van -170 vs Rei Tsuruya +140

• Anthony: This is a men’s flyweight bout between Joshua Van and Rei Tsuruya. It is the first fight in promotional history with both fighters having been born after 2000. I think each are very skilled prospects with extremely bright futures ahead. Tsuruya is undefeated at 10-0 after winning his UFC debut against Carlos Hernandez. He is a good wrestler with extremely high-level jiu jitsu for his age. Tsuruya is very quick to advance position on the mat and search for submission attempts on his opponents. He does very well keeping pace with other flyweights as they look to scramble away from his grasp. It is clear what the game plan will be here again as he faces an opponent with great boxing. Van has really impressed me with his hand speed and general striking skills. His boxing combinations are very crisp and only get better as his fights go on. Van averages 8.88 significant strikes landed per minute while maintaining a great rate of accuracy on these attempts thrown. He should have no problem lighting up Tsuruya at any moment when these two are standing. It would not surprise me to see Tsuruya hold down Van for the first round, but I do think he will begin to find more separation as the rounds go on. I expect Van to take over this fight late with striking volume that Tsuruya simply cannot match. Joshua Van by Decision
• Nick: Joshua Van is 12-2 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. For a 23-year old he is already very well-rounded and dangerous no matter where his fights go. He’s primarily a boxer and he’s crisp offensively. He fights at a torrid pace and puts out a lot of volume in exchanges. He’s still developing his skills, but it seems he’ll likely be a staple in the flyweight division for years to come. Rei Tsuruya broke into the UFC following a victory in the final of the Road to UFC tournament at flyweight. Tsuruya is 10-0 professionally, with four of those wins coming via submission and four coming via KO. He’s extremely well-rounded for a 22-year old. He has slick BJJ, he’s excellent in scrambles, and he carries surprising power for his frame. While he can be hittable in exchanges, he does seem to win most of the minutes we see him in the cage. We haven’t seen him tested extensively against top level competition, but he seems to check all of the boxes as a prospect worth keeping an eye on moving forward. He secured a solid win in his UFC debut over Carlos Hernandez, but he’ll be making a major step up in level of competition here against another rising contender in Joshua Van. Tsuryan will be live for the upset if he can consistently take Van to the mat. He has potent submission ability, but Van seems to have come a long way when it comes to his overall grappling defense. I will be siding with Van here assuming he can work back to his feet if he’s grounded early. He’s quickly developed a reputation as a fighter who gets better as his fighters wear on. I expect he can do so again here as Tsuruya starts to fade. Joshua Van by Round Three KO

Curtis Blaydes -340 vs Rizvan Kuniev +250

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a heavyweight fight between Curtis Blaydes and Rizvan Kuniev. This is the promotional debut for Kuniev who earned his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. He is on a streak of twelve consecutive wins although the competition he is facing has not been great. Kuniev also had a victory against Renan Ferreira overturned after testing positive for anabolic steroids. Normally the Russian likes to use his weight to pressure opponents and drag fights onto the mat. However, Blaydes’ wrestling is some of the division’s best and he will give Kuniev a much tougher fight than the strikers that he has been facing. I trust him to defend well against the double leg takedowns that Kuniev normally relies upon. Kuniev is a decent striker but I do rate Blaydes more dangerous when it comes to his kickboxing. Blaydes is much more measured in his attacks and reliant on his fundamentals. I do not expect to see Blaydes put into any compromising positions here. I expect the savvy veteran to win out even if this fight is competitive early on. Blaydes is a legitimate top contender with much more elite experience. He is the rightful favorite and I expect him to get this win. Curtis Blaydes by Round Two KO
• Nick: Curtis Blaydes is primarily a wrestler and one of the best heavyweights in the world in terms of grappling ability. He has excellent takedown entries and averages more takedowns per minute than any other heavyweight in UFC history. He continues to show considerable improvements on the feet, but he’s coming off a loss in a title fight against Tom Aspinall in which he was knocked out just one minute into the first round. Rizvan Kuniev will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win on Contender Series over Hugo Cunha. Prior to that fight, he secured a KO win over Renan Ferreira in the PFL, but that fight was turned over to a No Contest as Kuniev tested positive for anabolic steroids drostanolone, metenelone and boldenon. Kuniev is relatively well-rounded, but most of his success has come on the feet. He’s a potent finisher no matter where his fights go, but it’s tough to gauge his level as it seems he had been heavily reliant on PEDs. Heavyweight fights can be volatile, but Blaydes certainly feels like the side here. His chin is a concern when backing him as a heavy favorite, but Kuniev doesn’t seem to have the technical striking ability to set up a powershot. Blaydes has found success against a much higher level of opponent, and it’s tough to expect much from Kuniev given his recent failed PED tests. I’m siding with Blaydes here to mostly keep this fight standing and eventually find Kuniev’s chin. I also expect he’s the better grappler in this matchup as well. Curtis Blaydes by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Mauricio Ruffy -500 vs King Green +350

• Anthony: The main card begins at lightweight with King Green scheduled to face Mauricio Ruffy. I am expecting this to be a fan-friendly matchup, and one for the most part contested at kickboxing range. Green is a seasoned veteran that loves to let his hands go. He has good boxing, sneaky power and an intelligent defensive gameplan. However, Green is often hittable to the body. He moves his shoulders and rolls with punches better than anyone, but Green has also been bested in striking matches before. Ruffy does well blending his power with elite technical strikes. His reach is four-inches longer than Green and at distance we should see him landing the much better attacks. Ruffy’s background in karate makes him an exceptional fighter from range. He seems likely to score at least one knockdown here as Green ducks his head and tries to evade the big punches. Ruffy’s last performance was close on the scorecards due to the toughness of his opponent James Llontop. I do not think Green can withstand the offensive onslaught the same way that Llontop was able to. Green is a live underdog at these odds but I am not going to pick him. Ruffy should be able to control the distance and keep Green at the end of his punches. Mauricio Ruffy by Round Two KO
• Nick: Mauricio Ruffy is 11-1 professionally, with ten of those wins coming via KO. Primarily a striker, Ruffy is an explosive athlete who has shown quality skills on the feet. He has tremendous power for the division, but he’s still somewhat unproven against top level competition. He fights out of an excellent camp via the Fighting Nerds in Brazil, and many have him pegged as a prospect to keep an eye on at lightweight. King ‘aka Bobby’ Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights by out-striking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume, with decent power on his shots, and he generally does a good job stringing together effective combinations. While Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of exchanges. This line feels ridiculous as Green has taken on a much higher level of opponent. Still, I do see Ruffy as the rightful favorite here. Green’s chin and durability are on a rapid decline, so even if Ruffy is falling behind I expect he can find a KO over the course of fifteen minutes. Mauricio Ruffy by Round Two KO

Iasmin Lucindo -140 vs Amanda Lemos +115

• Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s strawweight between Amanda Lemos and Iasmin Lucindo. This should be a compelling battle between two Brazilians at very different points in their career. Lemos has established herself as a division staple with very technically sound boxing. She is a dynamic opponent on the feet and even at age 37, she is still putting forth very competitive fights. The one issue I have with Lemos is her porous takedown defense. She has very lackluster jiu jitsu and we have yet to really see Lemos stuff multiple takedowns in a fight. Jessica Andrade, Zhang Weili and most recently Virna Jandiroba all made Lemos look like an amateur once she had been taken down. Lucindo is confident with her offensive striking but she will win this fight much more convincingly if she elects to grapple. She has successfully scored at least two takedowns in four straight UFC appearances. Lucindo is also just 23 years old and continuing to improve with every outing. She should have the speed advantage against Lemos and much more strength when this fight does go to the ground. These odds have continued to close throughout the week and I am excited to bet my money on Lucindo. At near even odds, she is one of my most confident picks for this event. Iasmin Lucindo by Decision
• Nick: Iasmin Lucindo is a well-rounded prospect with a high-volume striking style, solid cardio, and excellent durability. Lucindo can be a dangerous submission grappler if this fight hits the mat, but she doesn’t really have the wrestling ability to take the fight there consistently. Lucindo is already dangerous at just 23-years old, and she’s coming off a career best win over a tough out in Marina Rodriguez. Amanda Lemos is an effective striker at range with underrated power for the division. She’s 14-4-1 professionally with eight wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. She’s coming off an ugly submission loss to Virna Jandiroba, and she’s been out of action since that fight back in July of 2024. She’s a technically sound striker and competent on the mat, but she’s risen through the ranks off her brute strength and power on the feet. Lucindo is going to be the quicker fighter and she has a major youth advantage in this match-up. Additionally, she has a clear path to victory if she can consistently secure takedowns. That being said, Lemos has shown much more against the top half of the division. She’ll have a major power advantage here, and her strength is unlike anything Lucindo has seen before. This is a low confidence play, but I’m seeing value on the underdog. Amanda Lemos by Decision

Ignacio Bahamondes -125 vs Jalin Turner +100

• Anthony: The featured fight is a contest at lightweight between Jalin Turner and Ignacio Bahamondes. It feels like Bahamondes has cemented his placement on these pay-per-views with such an aggressive and fan-friendly style. The Chilean has won a bonus for Performance of the Night in both previous appearances. He is a very strong fighter with great kickboxing skills. Bahamondes is very often moving forward in his fights and crowding opponents. He has tremendous size for a lightweight and it is easy for Bahamondes to close distance in a blink. It will be interesting to see Turner sharing the cage with somebody with a similar build to his. Turner is extremely dangerous when striking and this is an opponent that will almost certainly oblige him here on the feet. Bahamondes needs to be careful of eating straight counters as he advances with his own offense. Perhaps he will be the one looking to initiate grappling exchanges tonight. He also has much better kicks than Turner who rarely looks to engage with opponents low. This is a step-up in opponent for Bahamondes but I think he has the skillset to clear Turner today. While Turner has more experience against upper echelon fighters, he is just 7-5 overall since joining the UFC. Ignacio Bahamondes by Round Two KO
• Nick: Ignacio Bahamondes has what many would describe as a loose and free striking style. He’s very light on his feet and does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He’s shown an ability to KO his opponents both at range and in the clinch. He has surprising power for his frame, but he often leaves his head on the center-line and as a result he tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. Jalin Turner is a well rounded fighter who’s greatest strength is his surprisingly long reach and length for the division. He does an excellent job using his long frame to keep opponents at a distance. He has enough power in his shots to end a fight early with a single strike, but it’s mostly the volume with his jab that makes him so effective. All fourteen of Turner’s professional victories have come by way of finish. At 29-years old it seems Turner is hitting his athletic prime, but it is notable he has lost three of his last four fights under the UFC banner. This is a tough fight to call, but after seeing these two weigh-ins I find myself flipping my pick to the Turner side. It seems Bahamondes struggled to make weight, and Turner may have had the best weight-cut of his entire career. Another low confidence play, but I expect Turner can win the first two rounds and do enough in the third to secure a decision. Jalin Turner by Decision

Rafael Fiziev -165 vs Justin Gaethje +135

• Anthony: The co-main event comes at lightweight with Rafael Fiziev set to face Justin Gaethje. Originally Gaethje was scheduled to face Dan Hooker in a five round fight this evening. Hooker’s injury forces Fiziev to step in here on short notice, signing here just a week before the fight. This is a rematch of a meeting at UFC 286 that saw Justin Gaethje win via Majority Decision. That was a very close bout that saw Fiziev slow down after a dominant round one. Gaethje was effective there landing powerful uppercuts and chopping away Fiziev’s legs with his low kicks. I am expecting another brawl here between two of the division’s nastiest strikers. Fiziev is a real marksman, throwing a high volume muay thai attack and a steady mix of unorthodox strikes. He is far more technically skilled than Gathje and rightfully favored despite losing the first meeting. Fiziev does far better keeping himself out of an opponent’s range for long, unlike Gathje who is always content to stand directly in the pocket. Gathje is however accustomed to the brawl and I could see him fairing well here against an opponent that will be attempting to finesse him again kickboxing. Gaethje has always been known for his chin but lately he has been in wars that see him truly tested. His last performance was that classic against Max Holloway at UFC 300. Although I won my bet on Gaethje back in 2023, I do not think he really deserved to get the nod over Fiziev. I feel good picking Fiziev this time around as he evens up the series. Rafael Fiziev by Decision
• Nick: Rafael Fiziev has been out of action since he injured his leg against Mateusz Gamrot back in September of 2023. He returns here in a short notice match-up, that represents a rematch of his fight with Justin Gaethje that he narrowly lost via decision back in March of 2023. Many felt Fiziev should have been awarded the decision in the first instance of this match-up, but Gaethje’s ability to cause more damage in the third round allowed him to win by split decision. Rafael Fiziev is a former striking coach at Tiger Muay Thai. He has ridiculous head movement and throws extremely powerful punches and kicks. He is a problem for anyone in this division when it comes to fighting on the feet. He has knockout power in all of his limbs and his grappling seems to improve every time we see him fight. Justin Gaethje has been out of action since he was brutally KO’d against Max Holloway at UFC 300. He’s built his career on toughness and durability, but there is no denying his career is on a bit of a downturn. At his best, he’s a potent striker with power in all of his limbs. His leg-kicking ability is amongst the best in the division, and while he tends to win on volume more than pure on shot power, he has secured flash KOs against an elite level of opponent. This should be a competitive fight, especially with Fiziev taking it on short notice. That being said, Gaethje’s durability and speed have been on the decline. Even off a leg injury, I expect we see an improved version of Fiziev this time around. Given these are two fighters whose careers are headed in different directions, I’m siding with the favorite. Rafael Fiziev by Decision

Alex Pereira -110 vs Magomed Ankalaev -110

• Anthony: The main event will decide the light heavyweight champion as Alex Pereira will face off with Magomed Ankalaev. This has been a matchup fans have been waiting for. It appears that Ankalaev is the only fighter left that can challenge Pereira in his current form. The champion has won four straight title fights by knockout, picking apart his opponents and continuing to add names on his highlight reel. It is hard to deny Pereira as the best striker currently in the promotion. His power is on another level and yet Pereira fights a poised, measured attack that allows him to methodically beat down his challengers. Ankalaev has never been knocked out and enters this fight on an unbeaten streak through his last thirteen bouts. His only other title appearance came at UFC 282 when he fought Jan Blachowicz to a draw on the scorecards. I am hoping to see Ankalaev press the issue a bit more here and get to his grappling early. Throughout this title reign for Pereira, he has still not faced an opponent with legitimate wrestling skills. Ankalaev is a Dagestani with far better grappling than anyone Pereira has thus far seen. He should be looking to bring Pereira to the mat as early as the fight’s first minute. Ankalaev is a confident and dangerous striker but I think he will run into trouble if he stands in front of Pereira for very long. Poatan has great kicks and weapons from distance that will slow down Ankalaev’s forward pressure. He will likely continue to build in this fight if he can get into a rhythm with his elite kickboxing. It is up to Ankalaev to put on his wrestling shoes and force at least half of this bout to take place on the ground. I never want to bet against Pereira, but this is the one stylistic matchup where he can finally get exposed. I am going to have money on Ankalaev at near even money. And New. Magomed Ankalaev by Decision
• Nick: Alex Pereira, the defending light heavyweight champion, is known for his vicious left-hook. That being said, there is no denying he carries KO power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on the feet, he has outstanding footwork and head movement, and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a noted hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixiera for the past several years, so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. In this particular match-up, there is a good chance his grappling will be tested. Magomed Ankalaev is 20-1-1 professionally, and many expect he’ll be Pereira’s toughest test to date. He has ridiculously powerful head kicks as an extremely diverse striker with intelligent footwork. That being said, his wrestling is what is going to make him a threat to the champion in this match-up. Ankalaev is a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. Born and raised in Dagestan, Ankalaev trained in Greco-Roman Wrestling whilst he was a student at the Dagestan State University. We’ve seen him takedown a high-range of quality opponents at the UFC level, and while he prefers to stand and strike, in this particular match-up it’s widely expected he’s going to look to grapple. Pereira sometimes over-exerts on punches in exchanges and leaves himself open to be taken down. It would not at all surprise me to see him land a signature KO here, but I don’t expect he can keep this fight standing long enough to win it on the scorecards. Additionally, his cardio could be compromised if he’s constantly forced to grappler. Ankalev’s fight IQ is questionable at best, but he has to know he has a clear path to victory here. I expect he can lean on his wrestling to secure a convincing decision. And New. Magomed Ankalaev by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com