UFC Saudi Arabia: Adesanya vs Imavov

UFC Saudi Arabia: Adesanya vs Imavov – 2.1.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Imavov. Tonight’s event takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia with a card stacked with talent. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 16-11-0 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 15-12-0 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 1-31-2024 at 3pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 9:00am EST

Hamdy Abdelwahab -120 vs Jamal Pogues +100

• Anthony: The event begins with heavyweights Hamdy Abdelwahab and Jamal Pogues. This is a rather low-level piece of matchmaking to open the card here in Saudi Arabia. Abdelwahab was a winner in his only previous UFC appearance but that victory was overturned due to a failed drug test by the Egyptian. Abdelwahab’s suspension was served in full as of the 30th making him eligible to compete at today’s event. Abdelwahab is most effective when it comes to his grappling with an extensive background training Greco-Roman wrestling. The use of exogenous testosterone could certainly help Abdelwahab when it comes to his conditioning and strength. He should have the advantage here grappling against Pogues regardless of how many steroids he is taking. Abdelwahab has great technique and the much better wrestling fundamentals. We have seen Pogues previously win as the offensive grappler but he tends to struggle when put onto his back. The jiu jitsu black belt will likely find himself stuck underneath Abdelwahab in this one. Pogues’ striking is not very good but he can rely on his reach advantage to win a few boxing exchanges. On the mat I think he will struggle to get any separation. At near even odds I will be siding with the much better wrestler in Abdelwahab. Hamdy Abdelwahab by Decision
• Nick: Hamdy Abdelwahab was an Olympic-level wrestler for Egypt, but Egypt is anything but a wrestling powerhouse. He throws powerful hooks on the feet, but they are entirely telegraphed. He mostly strikes as a means to create openings for takedowns. Abdelwahab has been out of action since July of 2022, following injuries and a lengthy suspension for a failed PED test. Jamal Pogues is athletic for a heavyweight. He works well behind his jab, and he’s shown in certain match-ups he is more than willing to lean on his solid wrestling base. He’s 11-4 professionally, coming off a hard fought decision win over a tough out in Thomas Petersen. The key to this match-up will be Abdelwahab’s ability to take Pogues to the mat. Pogues will be the better striker, but Abdelwahab’s advantages if he can ground his opponent here could be far more significant. This is a low confidence play, as it is a low level match-up, but I like Abdelwahab to secure the win here after wearing Pogues down with his grappling. Hamdy Abdelwahab by Decision

Lucas Alexander -120 vs Bogdan Grad +100

• Anthony: This is a matchup at featherweight between Lucas Alexander and Bogdan Grad. Alexander missed weight for this bout, weighing in heavy for the second consecutive appearance. He was knocked out early in his last fight despite closing as the -530 betting favorite. While Alexander is certainly a skilled athlete I do not think his ceiling is quite at this UFC level. He has four losses already as a professional and I find it hard to trust him against opponents that are more technically skilled. Grad is the prospect on a much better career trajectory. He has been a winner in three straight fights and really mixes his techniques well. On the feet here Grad should confidently beat Alexander, mixing in kicks and picking up his output as this fight goes on. Grad has won eleven of his fights by finish and has some pretty sick knockouts on his highlight reel. Alexander will also feel the pressure from Grad if we do see these two tangle on the mat. Grad is the more proficient grappler with better chokes. I am happy to bet on him here at near even odds, especially with news Alexander weighed-in heavy. Bogdan Grad by Round Two KO
• Nick: Bogdan Grad will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a hard fought decision win on Contender Series over Michael Aswell. He’s small for the division, but he’s an explosive athlete with dangerous finishing ability both on the feet and on the mat. Grad is 14-2 professionally, with eight of those wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He pushes a serious pace, and generally does a good job forcing his opponents into chaos. Lucas Alexander is 8-4 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO. He has decent footwork, works well behind his jab, and he has also shown exceptional speed and overall athleticism for the division. His grappling is a bit of a question mark as it’s rare we see him rely on that part of his game, and outside of his win over a retiring Steven Peterson, he really hasn’t been tested extensively against UFC-level competition. This is a low level match-up which makes this a volatile fight to call. However, I do see Grad as the side. He’s the more potent finisher, and Alexander seems to struggle when he can’t dictate the pace of his fights. Bogdan Grad by Round Two KO

Jasmine Jasudavicius -260 vs Mayra Bueno Silva +200

• Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s flyweight between Jasmine Jasudavicius and Mayra Bueno Silva. The booking is historic as this is the first ever UFC fight between ladies to take place here in Saudi Arabia. Silva has been a division staple for quite some time. However, the Brazilian has had a tough go at things over the past few years. Since 2021, Silva has only been victorious against the likes of Lina Lansberg, Stephanie Egger and Wu Yanan. Her only quality win came against Holly Holm but that result was overturned due to a positive test for ritalin. She has lost both previous appearances and I think Jasudavicius is a tough stylistic test. The Canadian has looked great coming off of three wins in 2024. Jasudavicius does well timing her takedowns and overwhelming opponents with her wrestling. Silva is the more dangerous striker in this matchup but on the mat Jasudavicius will likely take the lead. Silva is a dangerous jiu jitsu practitioner but I do not see her putting Jasudavicius into many positions that she has not escaped from before. Jasudavicius should spend a majority of these three rounds in top position and control Bueno Silva. I do consider this matchup much closer than the betting odds suggest. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
• Nick: Jasmine Jasudavicius is decent everywhere, but she’s found more success grappling than she has striking. Her takedown entries are somewhat predictable, but she’s surprisingly strong for her frame so she’s able to secure them even when her opponents see them coming. She is 12-3 professionally and 6-2 in the UFC. Mayra Bueno Silva is a brawler. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ black belt. She doesn’t really have much wrestling ability, so it’s rare we see her shoot for takedowns. However, whenever she’s grounded she’s very capable of finishing her opponent. Bueno Silva will be moving down a weight class here, coming off back-to-back losses at bantamweight. Jasudavicius has a clear path to victory here if she can lean on her wrestling. However, the price seems somewhat egregious. I recognize Jasudavicius as the rightful favorite, but Bueno Silva is the value side here. If she can keep this fight standing she’ll be very live for the upset. Additionally, she can be dangerous on the mat if Jasudavicus takes her down. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision

Terrance McKinney -550 vs Damir Hadzovic +400

• Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight between Terrance McKinney and Damir Hadzovic. I find it very hard to trust McKinney as a large betting favorite moving forward. His last appearance ended inside of the first minute when Esteban Ribovics stopped him via head kick knockout. He has a bad tendency of keeping his head on the centerline whenever he is moving forward and trying to land some offense of his own. His chin is extremely suspect and that certainly does not pair well with such an aggressive style. Hadzovic is not a huge threat to sleep McKinney but he does have big power in his over-hands. I expect McKinney to overwhelm Hadzovic with his early, reckless approach. I’d advise McKinney to grapple in this matchup and hopefully his corner provides that same instruction. Hadzovic has just 34 percent takedown defense since joining the UFC. McKinney should be able to utilize his great wrestling here to assume dominant position over Hadzovic early on. I expect him to win this fight in the very first round. Terrance McKinney by Round One Submission
• Nick: Terrance McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 15-7 professionally and all of his wins have come inside the distance. He is 4-4 in the UFC, most recently suffering a brutal KO loss to Esteban Ribovics back in May of 2024. In most of McKinney’s fights he pushes a ridiculous pace. He overwhelms most of his opponents early, but if he can’t find a quick finish he’s usually dominated late as his cardio/gas tank fails. Damir Hadzovic is decent everywhere, but he doesn’t really have any standout skill when you watch him on film. He has decent power on the feet, but he’s hittable in exchanges and he struggles to control the pace of a fight. His offensive BJJ gives him finishing upside down on the mat, but he struggles against superior wrestlers and his takedown defense is a weakness that is often exploited by his opponents. McKinney has been fragile at the UFC level, but this does feel like the type of match-up in which he can find success. Hadzovic will be live for the upset if he can extend this fight beyond the first round, but I expect McKinney to take him down quickly and finish him soon thereafter. Terrance McKinney by Round One Submission

Shamil Gaziev -350 vs Thomas Petersen +275

• Anthony: Next is a fight at heavyweight between Thomas Petersen and Shamil Gaziev. This is Gaziev’s second straight appearance fighting here in The Middle East. He was victorious last August facing Don’Tale Mayes in Abu Dhabi. Gaziev is a legitimate heavyweight contender, blending steady pressure with great dirty boxing. He is a handful to deal with as Gaziev tends to blanket his opponents and force them into big exchanges along the octagon side. It makes sense that Gaziev gets a favorable matchup here on home soil. He represents the Kingdom of Bahrain and mostly trains here locally. His physical shape has also improved dramatically since joining the UFC. Petersen is a serviceable fighter but nothing he does is special or compelling. Normally Petersen is the one looking to set a high pace and wear on his heavyweight opponents. He lacks any real quality wins and I do not think he can shake Gaziev in this matchup. Petersen is a bit smaller than Gaziev and tasked with overcoming a reach deficit here. I think he will struggle to land much in terms of meaningful offense. Eventually Gaziev should be able to break him and find a finish. Shamil Gaziev by Round Two KO
• Nick: Shamil Gaziev is 13-1 professionally, with eleven of those wins having come via finish. He’s relatively well-rounded with one shot KO power, a solid wrestling base and decent BJJ. That being said he sometimes leaves himself there to be countered on the feet, he’s far from athletic, and his cardio seems to be a major weakness if his fights are extended. He’s a prospect on the rise in a shallow heavyweight division, but the holes in his game are certainly exploitable against top-level competition. Thomas Petersen is 9-2 professionally, and at 29-years old he’s one of the younger heavyweights on the roster. Peterson is relatively well-rounded, but he can be tentative at times as he waits for fights to come for him. He has power on the feet, but he hasn’t really developed the ability to throw extended combinations. He’s a capable offensive wrestler, but he seems hesitant at times to lean on that part of his game. Gaziev has been inconsistent, but he’s been taking on a much higher level of opponent compared to Petersen. I expect Gaziev can find a finish here after taking Petersen down early. Shamil Gaziev by Round One KO

Muhammad Naimov -350 vs Kaan Ofli +275

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a bout at featherweight between Muhammad Naimov and Kaan Ofli. Both lost by stoppage in their most recent appearances and desperately hope to bounce back here. Ofli seems a bit small for this weight class and I do not think his future is too bright at age 31. In his last showing he was to no surprise outclassed by a far superior striker. He should be comfortable letting his hands go a bit more here facing Naimov who is not as dangerous when it comes to his boxing. Naimov will be much stronger than Ofli in the clinch and in any positions on the ground here. I think while Ofli can hold his own striking with Naimov we see him smothered on the mat instead. Naimov will make this fight ugly and set a fast pace that Ofli won’t match. He trains at elevation and Ofli could be laboring here if Naimov is persistent chasing takedowns. He will also struggle to land much in combination as Naimov is always a threat to duck under and scoop up his legs. Through his last four fights Naimov has attempted a total of sixteen takedowns. Ofli feels confident fighting off of his back but Naimov is very unlikely to be bested by his jiu jitsu. Muhammad Naimov by Decision
• Nick: Muhammad Naimov is well rounded with five of his eleven professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He fights out of an excellent camp via Elevation Fight Team. He is an explosive striker offensively, but he sometimes chases big shots. This can leave him open to be countered, and he paid for this style his last time out when he was finished via submission by Felipe Lima. Kaan Ofli is a well-rounded fighter who shows a solid wrestling base, dangerous BJJ, and serious power on the feet. His ability to work back to his feet if he is taken down allows him to strike aggressively. He likes to throw a lot of straight punches and looping hooks as a means to overwhelm his opponents. He boasts a strong leg kick, and he does an excellent job using his effective striking to bait his opponents into takedowns. As talented as he is offensively, he is somewhat small for the division. Additionally, his aggressive style often creates openings for him to take damage in lengthy exchanges. The line feels wide here, but I expect Naimov can make this look easy as the bigger and stronger fighter in this match-up. I expect he can find a finish no matter where this one goes. Muhammad Naimov by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 12:00pm EST

Mike Davis -145 vs Fares Ziam +120

• Anthony: The main card begins with this opener at lightweight between Mike Davis and Fares Ziam. This should be a compelling scrap between two fighters with very different styles. Both men enter looking to turn their win streaks from four in a row to five. Ziam competed last at home in Paris where a knockout of Matt Frevola earned him a bonus for Performance of the Night. He has gotten much better when it comes to defending shots and punishing opponents who shoot reckless takedown attempts. Ziam’s kickboxing is well refined and much more dangerous than Davis’. He has a clear striking advantage in this matchup and despite that fact he is still the betting underdog. Davis is not the most intimidating but his wrestling deserves respect. He tends to do well converting on his takedowns and using his size to wrap up opponents. Davis could completely blanket Ziam if he elects to pursue takedowns all night long. However, I am not going to ignore the improvements Ziam has made in that regard. He will make this fight more challenging for Davis than what he is likely expecting, defending some shots and landing big counters on each entry. Fares Ziam by Decision
• Nick: Mike Davis is a technical brawler who is extremely dangerous on the feet. Seven of his ten professional wins have come via KO. He has underrated wrestling ability as well, and his only professional losses came to extremely tough outs in Sodiq Yusuff and Gilbert Burns. At 32-years-old here it seems he’s entering his prime, but he’s been generally inactive since he made his debut with the UFC. Fares Ziam is primarily a kickboxer who does a good job utilizing both his jab and leg kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. He is 16-4 professionally, coming off a career best win via KO of Matt Frevola. Ziam is on a four fight win-streak, and he has continued to show considerable improvements every time he steps into the cage. His defensive grappling can be exploited against high-level wrestlers, which is part of what makes this match-up so intriguing. This should be an extremely competitive match-up, but I do prefer the Davis side as he should be able to lean on his wrestling. Ziam will have a chance if he can keep this fight standing, but I’m discouraged by his shaky 67 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Mike Davis by Decision

Said Nurmagomedov -165 vs Vinicius Oliveira +140

• Anthony: Next is a fight at men’s bantamweight with Vinicius Oliveira set to face Said Nurmagomedov. This is quite a step up in competition for Oliveira who has fared very well so far in the UFC. Oliveira has demonstrated great poise through his past several cage appearances. He is a crafty striker who fights patiently and manages distance well. This style allows Oliveira to react and counter his opponents. Nurmagomedov is the quicker and more dangerous striker but I expect this to be a competitive fight on the feet. The path of least resistance for Nurmagomedov will come by the takedown here. Oliveira is a mediocre grappler who has been grounded in each UFC fight. Bernardo Sopaj was able to secure three of four takedowns against Oliveira before that epic comeback. Nurmagomedov is a grappler that not only takes top position but constantly threatens his opponents with chokes. Oliveira is a live underdog here but I think he will need to survive a few early submission attempts to have any chance at this one. He cannot present his neck to Nurmagomedov at any point when these two are dry. Said Nurmagomedov by Round One Submission
• Nick: Unlike many of the other top Russian prospects, Said Nurmagomedov is primarily a striker. He’s a talented kickboxer who throws a wide range of effective spinning attacks. He’s certainly dangerous on the mat as well, but he’s found most of his success at the UFC level picking his opponents apart at range. As talented as he is, it is certainly notable that he’s been out of action since October of 2023. Vinicius Oliveira is 29 years-old, 21-3 professionally, with sixteen of those wins coming via KO. Oliveira is an extremely powerful striker who seems to do his best work in the pocket. He’s a physical specimen for a bantamweight. His kill-or-be-killed style makes him dangerous against anyone, but it also means he can be open to be countered in exchanges. He’s coming off an impressive win over Ricky Simon in which he dominated as a +200 underdog on his way to a convincing decision. Oliveira is going to be the more aggressive fighter in this match-up and he’s certainly the more gifted athlete. That being said, Nurmagomedov should be the more technically skilled fighter no matter where this one goes. Another low confidence play, but I expect the favorite can find the opening he needs to score a timely submission. Said Nurmagomedov by Round Two Submission

Sergei Pavlovich -320 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +250

• Anthony: The featured bout comes at heavyweight between Sergei Pavlovich and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This should be a captivating matchup between two of this division’s best strikers. Rozenstruik is a credentialed kickboxer with so many years of experience in live fights. He won in both appearances last year and needs another victory today to stay in title contention. He will be more comfortable than Pavlovich here who rarely sees his fights escape round number one. The Russian tends to blitz forward early and throw extended combination punches. Pavlovich only really needs one clean shot to land to find the results he is searching for. He has tremendous power and with a reach advantage of six-inches I expect his punches to land on Rozenstruik first. Pavlovich does not usually rely on his grappling but he could excel in this fight if he were to take down Jairzinho. He is the more dynamic athlete and has fight-ending power in his ground and pound. This is a volatile matchup and Rozenstruik is a very live underdog. I plan on betting Pavlovich’s props in round one as he probably won’t hold up for much more than five minutes. Sergei Pavlovich by Round One KO
• Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match-up here that is very likely to end inside the distance. Pavlovich is 18-3 professionally with all eighteen wins coming via KO. He is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, but there is no denying he’s still one of the more powerful strikers in the world at heavyweight. Pavlovich’s footwork is mediocre at best, but he’s durable, and he generally does a good job forcing his opponents to fight moving backwards. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a decorated kickboxer who is most content fighting on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown on several occasions that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. While he throws well off his back foot, he sometimes lets fights get away from him as he never pushes much of a pace. He throws powerful high kicks on occasion, but he uses low kicks frequently to keep his opponents at range. The line if far too wide here, especially for heavyweight MMA. That being said, I do expect Pavlovich to close the distance here as he scores a vicious knockout. Sergei Pavlovich by Round One KO

Sharaputdin Magomedov -190 vs Michael Page +155

• Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at middleweight between Michael Venom Page and Sharaputdin Magomedov. This should be a great kickboxing battle between two extremely high level strikers. Magomedov is still undefeated as he enters this fight a perfect 15-0. He is rightfully favored here, matching Page very well stylistically and entering this fight the younger athlete by seven years. Page benefits from his speed and great footwork, tools that will likely be negated by Shara’s own quickness. Through four wins in the UFC, Magomedov is averaging 6.82 significant strikes landed per minute with a 65 percent rate of accuracy. His combinations land with meaningful intent. Many opponents struggle simply keeping up with Magomedov’s variety of kicks and complex attacks. Page can time his counters well but I do not think he is quite as powerful as Magomedov. It will be difficult for Page to keep pace here in a straight kickboxing match. Magomedov has not shown signs of slowing down and I figure he has the cardio advantage here when compared to Page. While this fight will be very competitive early I think Page will start to slow down as damage begins to accumulate. He will not be so light on his feet and evasive when this bout gets into rounds two and three. Furthermore, I think only elite grapplers will challenge Magomedov here at 185 pounds. Page has not fought at middleweight since 2013 and he is quite undersized here tonight. Sharaputdin Magomedov by Decision
• Nick: Sharaputdin Magomedov is an explosive striker, extremely dangerous both at range and in the clinch. He’s a competent wrestler who can dominate in top position, but there is no denying the fact he is most content to stand-and-trade on the feet. Magomedov is very light on his feet. He’s constantly bouncing in the cage and while his strikes can be somewhat untraditional he fights out of a muay-thai stance. He is 15-0 professionally, with twelve of those wins coming via KO. As gifted as he is offensively, his defensive grappling is questionable at best and his cardio seems like it may not be on par with other top contenders on the roster. Page has spent most of his career fighting for Bellator, against a relatively quality level of opponent. Page is a gifted striker who fights out of a wide karate style stance. He throws a lot of feints to set up his power shots. He has power in all of his limbs, fights well behind his length/reach, and he generally does an excellent job countering and fighting off his back foot when he needs to. Twelve of Page’s professional wins have come via KO. He has excellent durability and he’s difficult to takedown, but he has had issues against wrestlers in the past. In all likelihood, this plays out as a low volume striking affair. Magomedov will have the crowd (and potentially the judges) behind him here, but I do see Page as the value side. It’s rare we get him at underdog odds in a fight expected to take place on the feet. Michael Page by Decision

Israel Adesanya -165 vs Nassourdine Imavov +140

• Anthony: The main event comes at middleweight with Nassourdine Imavov facing off against Israel Adesanya. Tonight is the first time in six years that Adesanya is fighting without a championship on the line. The winner of this fight will likely be back in the title picture before the year’s end. Adesanya’s striking is unmatched, fighting from both stances seamlessly and using feints to overwhelm his opponent from the opening bell. This will be a fun fight against another skilled kickboxer. Adesanya does well utilizing all weapons available to him and specifically blasting out kicks with an incredible rate of accuracy. Recent success against Adesanya has come from opponents pressuring him. This fight will present an interesting battle between Adesanya’s footwork and the upcoming Imavov’s. While Imavov could control the distance better early, I think his movement will become a bit less effective as the former champion finds his rhythm and lands low leg kicks. Imavov also seems to lack power and relies on higher volume combination attacks. Adesanya should not be concerned with sitting in the pocket and landing the bigger counters here. He is familiar with Imavov’s style and I expect him to have a gameplan to neutralize what he does the best. I do not think he will allow Imavov to land at his normal rate of 55 percent accuracy. The more significant strikes will come from Adesanya and I trust him much more as this bout goes late. Neither athlete seems too likely to shoot for takedowns here in what is a fun booking to conclude tonight’s event. Even a less than prime Adesanya should be able to outclass Imavov. I think Adesanya is a great bet at these current odds. Israel Adesanya by Decision
• Nick: In spite of his recent inactivity, Israel Adesanya has established himself as a star in the sport. In most of his fights, we see Adesanya pick his opponents apart at range on the feet. He’s a gifted kickboxer with outstanding accuracy. He doesn’t carry massive power, but he relies on timely combinations to overwhelm his opponents and when he does he’s capable of finishing a fight inside the distance. Adesanya does an excellent job throwing feints to bait his opponents into counters. He moves fluidly on his feet. He has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. Nassourdine Imavov is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and dangerous ground and pound. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponents on the feet. He moves well, swinging out of his wide stance and utilizing his solid understanding of angles. He’s a quality wrestler, but more often than not he seems content to stand and trade. Imavov carries a lot of momentum into this match-up, having secured wins over Roman Dolidze, Jared Cannonier, and most recently Brendan Allen. There are certainly questions surrounding Adesanya’s level and focus coming into this fight, but I expect he’ll be the much more skilled fighter in this match-up even if he’s not at 100%. He’s the best technical striker Imavov has ever faced, and his takedown defense should be solid enough to mostly keep this fight standing. I also favor Adesanya’s cardio here, as he has far more five-round experience compared to Imavov here. We’ve seen Imavov fade in three round fights on more than one occasion. As long as Adesanya isn’t completely over the sport, I expect he’ll outclass Imavov here significantly. Israel Adesanya by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro

Photo: UFC.com