UFC Vegas 101 Dern vs. Ribas 2 Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 101: Dern vs Ribas II – 1.11.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 101: Dern vs Ribas 2. We’re back at The Apex in Las Vegas to kick off a new year of UFC fights in 2025. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 0-0-0 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 0-0-0 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 1-10-2024 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Nurullo Aliev -700 vs Joe Solecki +500

Anthony: Opening the card is this bout at lightweight between Joe Solecki and Nurullo Aliev. Solecki stepped in here on short notice after Aliev was originally slated to face Yanal Ashmouz. It has been nearly two years since Aliev made his UFC debut and while he is still young at just 24 I find it tough to trust him in this spot. It certainly does not seem reasonable that Aliev is such a large betting favorite here. While I understand why Aliev would have the edge against a chinny fighter like Ashmouz, Solecki is much more technically skilled and more resistant when fights hit the mat. Solecki may not find much success here on short notice but I certainly think he can give Aliev some fits. We have seen the Tajik fighter be a bit too aggressive in the past, overexerting himself in round one. Solecki should be the more steady fighter here and in grappling exchanges he will have the edge. I think we may see Solecki win a good chunk of the minutes by securing position on Aliev’s back. This is a good value bet to start the year with Solecki being a huge +450 underdog. Joe Solecki by Decision
Nick: Aliev is 9-0 professionally, with quality regional wins for AMC and Eagle FC. He’s primarily a wrestler, with solid submission ability and excellent cardio. He’s fighting out of Tajikistan, but he seems to have a similar high-pressure chain wrestling style that we see in fighters coming out of Dagestan and Chechnya. He’s coming off an impressive decision win in his UFC debut, which came over a tough out in Rafael Alves. Joe Solecki is a well-rounded fighter who finds most of his success in grappling exchanges. He’s a long and strong wrestler whose striking continues to show improvement, but in most of his fights he looks to either grind his opponents up against the cage or win by controlling them on the mat. Solecki is 5-3 under the UFC banner, coming off a decision loss to one of the division’s rising contenders in Grant Dawson. In spite of that loss, he has shown he has the skills both offensively and defensively to hang against a quality level of competition. The line has gotten out of hand here, but I do see Aliev as the rightful favorite. Solecki will be live for an early submission, but if he doesn’t find it I expect Aliev to take over as this fight wears on. Nurullo Aliev by Decision

Fatima Kline -900 vs Viktoria Dudakova +600

Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight matchup between Fatima Kline and Viktoria Dudakova. It seems rather impossible to justify these odds on Kline. The young prospect certainly appears to have a bright future ahead but she will experience more losses before her tenure in the UFC is done. Her debut against Jasmine Jasudavicius saw Kline out grappled for a large part of that bout. That may be a bit discouraging but it’s worth noting that the fight took place at 125 pounds. Dudakova does not have good technical skills on the mat but she is strong and perhaps a threat to also challenge Kline while they are grounded. The striking output is high for Dudakova but she really is not very comfortable on the feet. Kline should be able to put her skills on better display here facing a much less threatening opponent. Kline may find more opportunities to showcase her jiu jitsu here tonight. She will likely be the fighter moving forward and looking to score quick takedowns. These are still two rather green fighters but Kline appears to be a bit more fierce and more skilled than Dudakova. Fatima Kline by Decision
Nick: Fatima Kline captured the Cage Fury FC Vacant Strawweight Championship over Andressa Romero back in February. She is 6-1 professionally, and just 23-years old. She’s small for the division, but a gifted offensive grappler. She’s coming off a decision loss in her UFC debut to a tough out in Jasmine Jasudavicius, but she did well to extend the fight until the scorecards as she took that fight up a weight class and on short notice. Victoria Dudakova is 8-1 professionally and 25-years-old. She’s decent on the feet, but most comfortable in grappling exchanges as four of her eight professional wins have come via submission. She has already secured two UFC wins, over Istela Nunes and Jinh Yu Frey. However, she struggled her last time out in a decision loss to Sam Hughes. Once a highly regarded prospect, it does seem that her skills have started to plateau. The line feels wide here given the relatively low level nature of this match-up. That being said, Kline is the rightful favorite. She should manage to outclass Dudakova no matter where this one goes. Fatima Kline by Round Three Submission

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov -280 vs Bruno Lopes +220

Anthony: This is a bout at light heavyweight between Magomed Gadzhiyasulov and Bruno Lopes. We should be in for a good scrap here and a compelling clash of styles. The undefeated Gadzhiyasulov does great work while grappling his opponents and putting judo on display. Generally he does well burning the clock in his fights while completely stopping his opponent’s forward momentum. He is one of many Dagestani fighters that can happily lay and pray for an entire three rounds. The good news here is that Lopes defended every takedown attempt in his last bout. His boxing and size makes it tough for opponents to close distance and find easy access to his legs. Lopes’ appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series was just one example of him digging deep. I like his aggression late in fights and Lopes’ willingness to throw shots in combination. Gadzhiyasulov does not have anywhere near the punching power that Lopes does. I expect him to pick apart the body of Gadzhiyasulov on his way to a convincing win here. The judge’s will not give this win to Gadzhiyasulov if Lopes is the only one landing effective strikes. I think he also has the power to take judge’s out of the equation. Bruno Lopes by Round Three KO
Nick: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov is 9-0 professionally, coming off a narrow decision win in his UFC debut over another young up-and-comer in Brendson Ribeiro. He’s relatively well-rounded, but most of his success has come via his striking. He’s somewhat plodding in his approach and he telegraphs many of his strikes, but he carries dangerous power and his durability seems like it could help keep him in fights against more skilled opponents. Bruno Lopes will be making his UFC debut in this match-up. He comes into this fight off a Contender Series win via KO over Mikheil Sazhiniani. Lopez is 31-years old and 13-1 professionally. He’s relatively well-rounded, with six wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. He’s fought a decent level of regional competition, but he’s tough to get a read on as his kill-or-be-killed style makes him as vulnerable as he is dangerous. This is another low level match-up, making this a tough fight to call. I’ll take a shot on Lopes here to outwork Gadzhiyasulov, taking him out as he starts to fade. Bruno Lopes by Round Three KO

Ernesta Kareckaite -280 vs Nicolle Caliari +220

Anthony: Next is a matchup at women’s flyweight between Nicolle Caliari and Ernesta Kareckaite. In her last fight, Kareckaite was bested by a solid grappler in Dione Barbosa. We will likely see a similar style fight here today with Caliari shooting for takedowns while Kareckaite looks to keep it at kickboxing range. Kareckaite has the much faster reaction time and better overall striking. She has a significant reach advantage against Caliari and for as long as this fight is at distance, she should keep a commanding lead. In terms of 125 pounders Kareckaite does hit very hard. The path to victory for Caliari will likely be securing an early submission. I do not think she will be able to keep control of Kareckaite for very long at all. She will be looking to angle off and catch Kareckaite in an armbar which becomes harder as each second ticks off of the clock. Kareckaite will play it safe here early and then pick apart Caliari in rounds two and three. Ernesta Kareckaite by Decision
Nick: Ernesta Kareckaite is 5-1-1 professionally and just 25 years-old, coming off a loss in her UFC debut to Dione Barbosa at UFC 301. Kareckaite is primarily a striker. She works well at range and she has a solid understanding of footwork. As effective as she is offensively, she does tend to take a lot of damage in exchanges. She can be hittable, especially when she’s moving backwards. Nicolle Caliari will be making her UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via submission of Corinne Laframboise. Caliari is well-rounded with an 8-2 professional record. Five of those wins have come via KO and four via submission. Caliari has faced a solid level of regional competition; having fought in LFA, Invicta, and Pancrase. Kareckaite is the better striker in this match-up, and she’s going to have a massive size advantage. That being said, I actually see Caliari as the more well-rounded fighter in this match-up. Another low confidence play, but I see value on the underdog if she can lean on her grappling here. Nicolle Caliari by Round Two Submission

Jacobe Smith -600 vs Preston Parsons +450

Anthony: Here is a welterweight matchup between Jacobe Smith and Preston Parsons. This matchup comes on short notice as Parsons was originally scheduled to face Andreas Gustafsson here today. Smith is putting his undefeated record on the line here in his promotional debut. He was a wrestler at Oklahoma State University and his grappling offense is really quite proficient. I am excited to see what Smith can accomplish as he continues to develop his skills with the team at Fortis MMA. His striking has come along nicely and he certainly has the power advantage when it comes to striking against Parsons. We often see Parson pursue takedowns in his fights but I do not expect to see him have much success pressuring and wrestling Smith. In his last fight, Parsons was a mere 1 of 9 on his attempted takedowns against Oban Elliott. That is a very similar stylistic matchup to the one Parsons faces today. He has the skills to outgrapple mediocre competition but I fear Smith will be able to keep top position against Parsons here today. Jacobe Smith by Round Two KO
Nick: Preston Parsons is a dangerous submission grappler with decent takedown entries, which he primarily finds up against the cage. He is going to look to take this fight to the mat, but he’s competent enough on the feet to strike against most opponents when he needs to. Parsons is 2-3 in the UFC, coming off a decision loss to a rising prospect in Oban Elliott. Jacobe Smith will be making his UFC debut in this fight, coming off a Contender Series win over Christien Savoie. Smith is 9-0 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. Smith fights out of a solid camp via Fortis MMA, and at 28-years old he’s making his debut in the heart of his athletic prime. While most of his wins have come via KO, Smith is an All-American D-1 wrestler who had found his initial success at Oklahoma State University. Smith is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for the injured Andreas Gustafsson Still, I expect he can dominate Parsons on the mat or at striking range. The line has gotten out of hand, but I see the favorite securing a convincing win in his debut. Jacobe Smith by Decision

Thiago Moises -170 vs Trey Ogden +145

Anthony: Next is a good bout at lightweight between Thiago Moises and Trey Ogden. This should be a competitive matchup with a lot of exciting exchanges on the mat. Each man is in search of his 19th professional win. Moises struggled in his most recent octagon appearance facing Ludovit Klein. He went 0 for 8 on his attempted takedowns and got picked apart striking against such a highly skilled kickboxer. This matchup against Ogden will be much more favorable given the nature of his fight style. Ogden loves bringing his opponents to the mat and racking up control time by the minute. While he should do well defending some submissions here, I find it hard to expect Ogden to really hold his own against such a high level black belt. Moises has only lost against upper echelon competition and I do not think Ogden will do much to challenge him here tonight. Moises is the more dangerous striker in this matchup too, likely throwing a lot of body kicks at Ogden when these two are standing. He seems like a good bet at this number and I am confident in picking him to win. Thiago Moises by Decision
Nick: Thaigo Moises is a jiu jitsu specialist. He has a black belt under Paulo Streckert and boasts eight professional victories by submission. He was formally ranked as a lightweight, with notable wins over Bobby Green, Michael Johnson, and Alexander Hernandez. His striking is fairly predictable, but he’s a talented grappler who seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. Moises did take a loss his last time out, falling to another tough out in Ludovit Klein. At 35-years old it seems unlikely Trey Ogden will have an extensive UFC career, but he’s well rounded and a good test for the prospects in a loaded 155 lb division. Ogden is decent on the feet, but he absorbs more strikes than he lands in exchanges. He’s fairly durable as he’s never been KO’d professionally, but most of his success has come on the mat as he fights mostly to maintain position. In spite of his flaws, Ogden is coming off back-to-back wins. He is now 3-2-1 in the UFC. This is a tough fight to call as each of these fighters have been inconsistent against UFC-level competition. I slightly prefer Moises as the more proven commodity, but I’m hoping he can keep this fight standing as Ogden’s clearest path to victory is likely via top control. Thiago Moises by Decision

Marco Tulio -500 vs Ihor Potieria +375

Anthony: This is a fight at middleweight between Ihor Potieria and Marco Tulio. I am anticipating that this will be a fight at kickboxing range, likely occurring at a rather meager pace. Potieria seems to be slowly improving as he now makes his eighth appearance in the UFC. I like the move down to 185 pounds for Ihor although he was heavy on the scales yesterday. Potieria is not a very special athlete but he is a consistent performer that can always keep fights close. Tulio is the more skilled and exciting striker, likely taking an early lead here in this bout. While he seems to rate a bit higher than Potieria we have yet to see Tulio really face any stiff competition thus far. He could find himself puzzled here against the southpaw or perhaps engaging in the grappling with Potieria more than he would prefer. However, Tulio is the rightful favorite in this spot and at least twice as likely to win as Potieria. I would take a shot betting on Ihor if I knew this fight was going to a decision but Tulio has real finishing equity here with the power to turn out the lights. Tulio has a much better striking defense compared to that of Potieria. There are a lot of attractive underdogs on this card and while I cannot fault anyone for taking Potieria, I personally won’t be betting on him here. Marco Tulio by Round Two KO
Nick: Marco Tulio will be making his UFC debut in this match-up. He is 30-years old, 12-1 professionally, and coming off an impressive Contender Series win via spinning-back kick KO over Matthieu Duclos. Tulio is primarily a striker, with eight of his twelve professional wins coming via KO. He carries serious power in all of his limbs, and he mixes spinning attacks into his combinations better than most UFC-level middleweights. Ihor Potieria is primarily a brawler with dangerous offensive striking ability. He is 21-7 professionally, but he really hasn’t found much success at this level. He is explosive in open space and striking out of breaks, but he seems far from refined in terms of his footwork and head movement. His kill or be-killed style makes him dangerous as an underdog, but his technical abilities defensively are far from refined. Potieria will be dangerous early here, but I expect Tulio to stay safe until he outclasses him as he starts to fade. Tulio is the better athlete, and the more potent finisher in this match-up. Marco Tulio by Round Two KO

Jose Johnson -185 vs Felipe Bunes +150

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with this flyweight bout between Jose Johnson and Felipe Bunes. This is the worst matchup on tonight’s card with both fighters having holes in their game and numerous professional losses. Johnson missed weight on Friday but that is not surprising given his frame. Bunes is 35 years old, giving him a very limited window to win at 125 pounds. He tends to be very aggressive early in his bouts while having a habit of fading late. I do not expect Bunes to manage his cardio well here in a striking affair. Bunes would like to takedown Johnson but that task is easier said than done. Jose Johnson is 6’0 at flyweight and the much better kickboxer of these two. As Bunes looks to close distance and drag Johnson to the mat, he will be tasked with overcoming quite the reach advantage. Johnson will probably take over late here getting off the better combinations and perhaps hurting Bunes. His boxing is solid when he has the space that he needs to work. I will not have money on Johnson as the betting favorite as I view this matchup as very volatile. Jose Johnson by Decision
Nick: Johnson is 29-years-old and 16-8 professionally, coming off a decision loss to a tough out in Asu Almabayev. He’s relatively well-rounded but he really doesn’t have any singular standout skill offensively. He has faced decent competition fighting for LFA and Fury FC, but it is somewhat surprising he was awarded a UFC contract given his spotty overall record regionally. He’s massive for a flyweight, and his long limbs could prove troublesome for Bunes at range or on the mat here if he’s chasing submission. Felipe Bunes is 35-years-old and 13-6 professionally. He is relatively well-rounded, with eight wins coming via submission and three via KO. He’s dangerous offensively, but somewhat wreckless in his attacks. He was dominated in his UFC debut, falling via KO to a rising prospect in Joshua Van. Johnson is going to be the much bigger fighter in this match-up, but I don’t mind taking a shot on Bunes as the underdog. Johnson missed weight for this fight, and while he is relatively well-rounded offensively, his defensive abilities leave a lot to be desired. Another low confidence play in a low confidence matchup, but I’m siding with Bunes. Felipe Bunes by Round Three Submission

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Uros Medic -220 vs Punahele Soriano +180

Anthony: The main card begins at welterweight as Punahele Soriano will face Uros Medic. Soriano fought just once last year, winning against Miguel Baeza in his welterweight debut. He arrived to that fight in phenomenal shape and relied on his wrestling to book an easy win. Baeza was content to fight off his back in that bout and spent more than ten minutes underneath Soriano. While Medic has some deficiencies in terms of his own grappling defense, there is no guarantee that Soriano will try to wrestle today to that same extent. Medic is a very high level kickboxer with much more power than Soriano. His punches find their target quicker and with both men fighting here as southpaws, Medic will certainly be leading the dance. The only path to victory for Soriano will be laying on Medic like a wet blanket. Anytime that Medic has space to work in this fight he will be putting together combinations and landing on Soriano with great accuracy. While Medic has looked solid for a few showings, Soriano has failed to meet expectations through eight appearances in the UFC. Medic is the rightful favorite and I expect him to find at least one knockdown here facing Soriano. Uros Medic by Round Two KO
Nick: Uros Medic is a skilled striker who is clearly gifted in terms of his technical abilities. He throws meaningful shots and pushes a serious pace but he sometimes over-exerts himself and gets stuck in questionable positions. He has never fought to a decision. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to take out inferior competition, but at the UFC level he’s going to need to learn to pace himself. Punahele Soriano’s greatest strength is his powerful left hand. Additionally, for someone lacking significant professional experience he looks fairly polished in exchanges. While Soriano is certainly most dangerous on the feet, he is an underrated grappler with a solid Judo base. He was an all-American wrestler in high school, but he certainly seems more inclined to stand and trade at the UFC level. Soriano gave a career best showing his last time out, leaning on a grappling heavy gameplan after moving down a weight class to welterweight. This a volatile match-up, but I do see Medic as the rightful favorite. Soriano has a clear path to victory if he can lean on his wrestling, but I fully expect Medic’s superior footwork to allow him to avoid getting taken down. Uros Medic by Round Two KO

Austin Bashi -280 vs Christian Rodriguez +220

Anthony: Next should be a great fight at featherweight between Christian Rodriguez and Austin Bashi. This is the promotional debut for Bashi who enters with quite a bit of hype surrounding him. He is 13-0 as a professional and only 23 years old. Bashi has excellent wrestling, timing his takedowns perfectly and working to advance position quickly when fights hit the mat. We have seen Bashi’s striking get better in every fight so far although he continues to train out of a rather small gym. Bashi’s resume is rather solid, fighting tough competition on the way up. He has really struggled getting opponents to sign and fight him, an issue that will be resolved now joining the UFC. Rodriguez has built a bit of a reputation, testing and turning back many young prospects. At featherweight he is only a bit undersized but I think facing this quality of a grappler will prove to be a bit too much for him. Bashi is great when it comes to timing his level changes and surprising his opponents with varied attacks. With Ceerod you certainly know what you are going to get and while he will test Bashi’s grit and cardio, I expect this to be a convincing win for the debutant. He looked to be in phenomenal shape at yesterday’s weigh-ins. At these odds I will definitely have some money on Bashi. Austin Bashi by Decision
Nick: Christian Rodriguez is primarily a striker. He’s capable of utilizing a grappling heavy gameplan in certain match-ups, but he seems most comfortable exchanging on the feet. He has decent BJJ both offensively and defensively, which was evident in each of his most recent wins over highly regarded prospects in Raul Rosas Jr., Cameron Saaiman, and Isaac Dulgarian. He is 11-2 professionally and 4-2 in the UFC. At just 27-years old he’s certainly a prospect to keep an eye on. In spite of his general success, Rodriguez was defeated his last time out via submission to Julian Erosa. Rodriguez was competitive early in that match-up, but he got caught in a choke due to a defensive lapse in a wrestling scramble. Austin Bashi will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via submission over Dorian Ramos. Bashi is 13-0 professionally and just 23-years old. He’s dangerous everywhere, with three wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. Bashi is an explosive athlete with a compact frame. He’s a skilled wrestler with excellent cardio and durability. As talented as he is, he is still relatively inexperienced and ‘green’ in his ability. Rodriguez is making a career of taking out undefeated prospects, I expect he can once again here as the underdog. Christian Rodriguez by Decision

Roman Kopylov -220 vs Chris Curtis +180

Anthony: This is a good scrap at middleweight between Roman Kopylov and Chris Curtis. Kopylov is coming off a win in his last outing, beating Cesar Almeida by split decision. He has realized much more recent success than Curtis as he now enters his athletic prime. Curtis is 37 years old and struggling to win consecutive fights at this level. He is a dangerous man with good boxing and pocket awareness, but here against a skilled kickboxer like Kopylov he will likely be fighting from behind. While both of these men primarily compete with opponents at striking range, Kopylov has a much wider arsenal of weapons and the more sophisticated attacks. His kicks and early pressure will likely cause Curtis to move backwards more than he would like to. In the past we have seen Curtis come alive as fights start to get late, but Kopylov tends to manage his cardio well. These two can deliver a really fun scrap but if this is going to be more of a chess match, I’ll pick Kopylov to win. He has won both his previous UFC fights when closing as the betting favorite. Roman Kopylov by Decision
Nick: Roman Kopylov is a dangerous offensive kickboxer at range. He does a good job mixing heavy kicks into his combinations, but he is somewhat predictable as he seems to telegraph many of his bigger shots. He has won five of his last six fights, including a decision his last time out over Cesar Almeida. Chris Curtis is primarily a counter-striker with a tight guard defensively and power in both hands. He has an excellent chin, but the major key for him to win here will be if he can force Kopylov to fight his type of fight. At distance, Kopylov’s kicking ability and footwork could make it difficult for Curtis to land consistently. That being said, if Curtis can work his way into the pocket, he’s the more talented and dangerous boxer in close. This is another low confidence play, but I like Curtis’ chances as an underdog here. I expect Kopylov to outclass him early, but he should be durable enough to hang in here and then secure the upset win here late. Chris Curtis by Round Two KO

Cesar Almeida -280 vs Abdul Razak Alhassan +220

Anthony: The featured bout is also a middleweight fight with Cesar Almeida set to face Abdul Razak Alhassan. Alhassan’s last fight was ruled a No Contest despite him nearly finishing Cody Brundage in thirty seconds. He is extremely aggressive early in fights and early in each round. Alhassan has thunderous power but he is also a talented judo practitioner with the grappling edge in this spot. Almeida seems like a very skilled striker but he has proven to have a lot of issues when it comes to his takedown defense. Alhassan can make this fight very interesting by engaging Almeida in the grappling the best that he can. When these two are striking Alhassan will hold his own but Almeida is the much quicker athlete and better technical boxer. He will likely throw a lot of low kicks here although Alhassan is well built with a very strong base. His legs are thick and durable, but that also makes them large targets. Almeida should be able to keep a more consistent pace than Alhassan who tends to fight in spurts. I think these odds are way too wide given this bout’s volatility. Almeida is my pick to win but Alhassan is a very live underdog. Cesar Almeida by Round Two KO
Nick: Cesar Almeida is primarily a striker. He’s only 6-1 professionally in MMA, but he has an extensive resume in kickboxing that includes a win over current light heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira. Almeida has solid cardio and durability, and he can put power in his strikes even when he’s moving backwards. Like many kickboxers, however, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. Abdul Razak Alhassan is a physical specimen with massive power in his punches, All twelve of his professional wins have come via KO. He has a solid judo base and decent grappling ability, but his questionable cardio/conditioning has prevented him from leaning on that part of his game. I’m encouraged by Alhassan’s recent move to Elevation Fight Team, an excellent fight camp out of Denver. Training at a high elevation in thinner air should help improve his cardio moving forward. Almeida is the much better striker in this match-up, but his takedown defense is exploitable if Alhassan chooses to lean on that part of his game. If Almeida can keep this standing he’s going to make this look easy, but I see value in Alhassan as the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup. Abdul Razak Alhassan by Round Two KO

Santiago Ponzinibbio -140 vs Carlston Harris +115

Anthony: The co-main event takes place at welterweight with Carlston Harris facing off with Santiago Ponzinibbio. These two men are aged just one year apart but at very different stages of their respective careers. While Harris made his promotional debut in 2021, Ponzinibbio has been in the UFC since 2013. The Argentinian has begun to slow down quite considerably here as he approaches retirement. Ponzinibbio has always been known for his tight boxing and good striking defense. However, Ponzinibbio’s volume has diminished quite a bit. He landed less than 45 significant strikes in each of his previous two bouts. While Ponzinibbio should have a slight edge striking against Harris, I do not think it will be too profound. Harris’ has power and effective attacks from both stances. He throws a very good left hook and has the reach advantage tonight. Harris also has a clear edge grappling if he is capable of taking Ponzinibbio down. He is a jiu jitsu brown belt with a great series of chokes off of the front headlock. Ponzinibbio has never been submitted before but it would not surprise me to see him overwhelmed by a guy like Harris. As the betting underdog I like Harris a lot here. Carlston Harris by Round Two Submission
Nick: Santiago Ponzinibbio was the class of this division before he was forced to miss more than two years with an extensive list of injuries. He is coming off a narrow decision loss to Muslim Salikhov, and he’s likely fighting for his roster spot here as he has now lost four of his last five fights. At his best, Ponzinibbio is a talented striker who mixes kicks well into his combinations. He has solid cardio and durability, and he generally finds success when he can force his opponents to fight moving backwards. Harris is 37-years old and 4-2 in the UFC, coming off a brutal KO loss to Khaos WIlliams back in May of 2024. He’s well rounded with five professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s an explosive athlete for his age, and a potent finisher no matter where his fights go. He does a good job honing in on the weaknesses of his opponents, but his aggressive style can occasionally leave him open to be countered or controlled. Harris is the more potent finisher in this match-up, but Ponzinibbio has the better cardio and durability as the more technically sound striker here. Ponzinibbio is far past his prime, but I expect he can still stay a step ahead in this one. Santiago Ponzinibbio by Decision

Amanda Ribas -200 vs Mackenzie Dern +160

Anthony: The main event is a women’s strawweight bout between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas. This fight is a rematch of a 2019 bout that saw Dern win by unanimous decision. Neither athlete landed much substance in that fight, but since then each has developed their striking skills immensely. Ribas was just 26 during that meeting and since then her boxing has become much more fluid. Perhaps most notable in Ribas’ progression is the stark improvement in her head movement and defensive awareness. She would prefer to stand and strike in this matchup rather than pit her grappling against the skilled blackbelt. Dern is only the underdog here because her striking is terrible. She has 39 percent striking accuracy and a negative striking differential. Dern has also been knocked down five times over the course of her last three fights. Ribas can outstrike her, but I do not think she will really hurt Dern throughout this bout. Ribas takes each minute on the feet with her striking volume alone while Dern will rely on grappling to secure this victory. I think after winning their first meeting, the value is on Dern here in the rematch as a betting underdog. This time around we will see five rounds of action in the smaller 25-foot cage. Dern is capable of stealing multiple rounds with control time and her submission attempts. Ribas first five round experience came last March against Rose Namajunas and in rounds four and five she did not look great. I expect this to be a very close fight and I prefer to take the plus money side. Mackenzie Dern by Decision
Nick: This main event represents a rematch between Dern and Ribas that took place back in October of 2019. Ribas secured a decision win in that spot, and she’ll be looking to replicate that result here now more than five years later. Amanda Ribas is a fan-favorite as an aggressive fighter with outstanding offensive grappling ability. She is a black belt in BJJ, with four of her twelve professional victories coming by way of submission. Her striking continues to improve, but she’s very hittable in exchanges and the strength of her chin is questionable at best. Ribas will be moving back down to strawweight here after falling to Rose Namajunas via narrow decision in a five round main event. Ribas’ durability is certainly a concern for her when she’s cutting down to 115 lbs, but in this match-up with Dern that isn’t likely to play out as a major factor. Mackenzie Dern is one of the more decorated BJJ black belts in all of MMA. She has a nearly flawless ground game as a former world No. 1 ranked IBJJF competitor. She is an ADCC and no-gi BJJ World Champion, and a brutal match-up for any opponent when her fights hit the mat. Dern has shown dramatic improvements in her striking over the years. She’s no longer the one-dimensional fighter she was when entering the UFC. Still, she is notably just 1-3 across her last four match-ups. Dern is always live for a submission if she can drag her opponent to the mat, but Ribas’ BJJ is solid enough that I expect she can stay safe if she is taken down. Ribas is the much better striker in this match-up, and I have trouble expecting Dern to find a win here as she struggled the last time these two faced off. Amanda Ribas by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com