UFC 310: Pantoja vs Asakura – Fight Predictions and Analysis

UFC 310: Pantoja vs Asakura – 12.7.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 310: Pantoja vs Asakura. Get ready for a great pay-per-view this evening as fights wrap up for the year here in Las Vegas. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

• Anthony: 302-183-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
• Nick: 297-188-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 12-6-2024 at 7pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Kennedy Nzechukwu -550 vs Lukasz Brzeski +400

• Anthony: The event begins at heavyweight with Kennedy Nzechukwu facing off against Lukasz Brzeski. This is a short notice appearance for Nzechukwu who last competed one month ago at UFC 308. I was impressed by Nzechukwu there as he picked apart Chris Barnett to earn a round one finish. Brzeski was originally scheduled to face undefeated prospect Tallison Teixeira here instead. Through his five appearances in the UFC, Brzeski has only won once and his performances have been mediocre. He is decent when moving forward and boxing but Brzeski has porous striking defense and no dominant skills on the mat. Nzechukwu is the rightful favorite in this matchup although I think the betting odds are a bit too wide. Kennedy should put his size to good use here, keeping Brzeski at the end of his punches and attacking from range. Nzechukwu tends to build as fights go on and extend his combinations longer as he becomes comfortable. He also has the edge wrestling here if he does elect to shoot. At heavyweight his power certainly translates and I give him the striking edge here against the Brzeski. Nzechukwu should comfortably win but it is always tough for me to bet any money on unranked heavyweights. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round Two KO
• Nick: The biggest knock on Nzechukwu is his low output and tendency to stay excessively conservative. He often spends too much time just waiting for fights to come to him. He’s a dangerous striker and technically sound offensively, but his extreme tentativeness prevents him from dominating inferior opponents. He is coming off a win via KO over Chris Barnett, but that was his first fight at heavyweight and he really hasn’t shown that he’ll be able to hang in this division. Brzeski is 9-4-1 professionally, and just 1-4 in the UFC. He’s surprisingly athletic for his frame, but his technical ability in both his striking and grappling are far from refined. He has decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs most of his strikes. This creates openings for his opponents to either take him down or counter him. This is a low level match-up and thus a low confidence play. While he’s still primarily a striker, Nzechukwu has been leaning on his offensive grappling more lately. There is no denying his BJJ has come a very long way since he debuted with the UFC back in 2019. There are two long fighters, but Nzechukwu does a better job using his length. Additionally, if he struggles at all he should be able to take Brzeski down with ease. The price has gotten out of hand, but Nzechukwu is certainly the rightful favorite. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round Two KO

Chase Hooper -1100 vs Clay Guida +700

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Chase Hooper and Clay Guida. Hooper is the largest betting favorite on today’s card albeit for good reason. The 25-year-old has really filled into his frame here at lightweight and I am expecting him to continue climbing toward the top ten soon. While Hooper is known for his phenomenal grappling, he is finally becoming comfortable with his strikes and showcasing rather high level kickboxing. I certainly think Hooper’s striking will be enough to get him the edge boxing against Guida. He is the much taller man and benefiting from a four-inch edge in reach. These two competed before, grappling in Cage Fury two years ago. Hooper was able to win that match after catching Guida in a calf slicer. It seems likely that Hooper rolls to the legs and threatens Guida again here when this bout hits the mat. Now at 42-years-old, Guida is not fighting out of adverse positions that effectively. His high pressure style could mean disaster here if he recklessly moves forward against Hooper. The most likely outcome for this fight is a Hooper victory by early submission. It would not surprise me to see him land a kneebar or armbar against Guida. Chase Hooper by Round One Submission
• Nick: Chase Hooper has extremely advanced grappling ability for a 25-year old. Seven of Hooper’s fourteen professional wins have come via submission. In many of Hooper’s past fights he was dramatically outclassed on the feet, but he does seem to be improving in that area. On the mat his long limbs provide him an excellent base for BJJ, and when his fights hit the ground he’s as creative as he is dangerous offensively. Clay Guida is a legend of the game but he’s far past his prime. He is known for his fast-paced aggressive and high-pressure style, but he’s certainly lost a lot of the explosiveness he had back when he was a legitimate contender. He’s coming off back-to-back losses, and at 42-years old there’s a decent chance this will be his last fight with the promotion. Guida doesn’t really have the power or footwork to prevent Hooper from closing distance and taking him down. It’s also notable that Hooper dominated Guida in a grappling match when these two squared off back in 2022. The price feels a bit insane given Guida’s massive experience advantage, but these are two fighters whose careers are headed in opposite directions. Chase Hooper by Round One Submission

Michael Chiesa -120 vs Max Griffin +100

• Anthony: This is a good matchup at welterweight between Max Griffin and Michael Chiesa. These are two well-rounded athletes although I’d consider this a matchup between a striker and a grappler. Griffin possesses the much faster hands and better technical boxing. Chiesa has 11 professional wins by submission and averages more than one takedown landed per round. He earned a much needed win his last time out, scoring a first round choke against Tony Ferguson. Chiesa will make an effort to ground Griffin here early, utilizing the body lock takedown to great effect. Griffin defends 68 percent of opponent takedowns but overall he is not the toughest to ground. We have seen Griffin taken down at least once in each of his last four appearances. He may fight back to his feet against Chiesa but really Griffin needs most of this fight to take place on the feet in order to have a chance. Chiesa’s striking is rudimentary but he is intelligent when it comes to his defense. He has a knack for wrapping up his opponents and forcing long exchanges on the mat. I think Chiesa should be a short betting favorite here but nonetheless this fight is even money. Griffin has alternated wins and losses for his past five fights. I think that trend continues here today. Michael Chiesa by Decision
• Nick: Max Griffin is a well-rounded fighter, but his greatest strength is his athleticism. He has a very large frame for a welterweight and he’s shown solid strength against a variety of high level competition. He has notable wins over Carlos Condit, Tim Means, and Mike Perry. Michael Chiesa was once one of the more underrated grapplers in the UFC. He is now far past his prime, having dropped four of his last three fights. He did secure a win his last time out over Tony Ferguson, but Ferguson is on a record-breaking losing streak and seems even further past his prime than Chiesa does. In spite of his recent struggles, Chiesa is still 17-7 professionally with notable wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Beniel Dariush, and Neil Magny. At his best, Chiesa has an outstanding wrestling base that relies on highly technical body-lock style takedowns and his submission game is extremely creative. Chiesa’s stand-up is serviceable, but his powerful wrestling base and technical abilities on the mat are certainly his greatest strengths. Chiesa averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes and his BJJ is outstanding if he can hold top position. Griffin is going to be the better striker in this match-up, but I expect Chiesa can stay safe enough to find the entries he needs to secure takedowns here. This is a low confidence play, but I favor the grappler here to execute his game plan more effectively. Michael Chiesa by Decision

Joshua Van -170 vs Cody Durden +140

• Anthony: This is a bout at flyweight between Cody Durden and Joshua Van. I am expecting a back and forth fight here likely with each man having his moments. Van is just 23 years old and rather steadily progressing as a professional. He has been very active this year and one would think he has the physical advantages compared to Durden. While Van is very good when striking, his defensive awareness is not all there. Van bettors will prefer he engage Durden more in a muay thai clinch where he can really put his power on display. Durden is extremely tough with just one career loss by knockout. His ability to take shots and continue moving forward makes him dangerous. Durden has a clear grappling advantage in this fight and I hope he elects to wrestle Van. While Van may be training his get ups more in between camps, I am not ready to put faith in his takedown defense. I won’t be taking Van as the favorite here given the grappling deficiencies he has shown. Durden seems like a decent underdog selection. Cody Durden by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Joshua Van is 11-2 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. For a 23-year old he is already very well-rounded and dangerous no matter where his fights go. He’s primarily a boxer and he’s crisp offensively. He fights at a torrid pace and puts out a lot of volume in exchanges. He’s still developing his skills, but it seems he’ll likely be a staple in the flyweight division for years to come. Cody Durden is a well-rounded and gritty fighter who finds most of his success using his wrestling to keep pressure on his opponents. He’s more than competent on the feet, but in most matchups we see him try to score takedowns to control position and grind out wins on the scorecards. Durden is coming off an impressive submission win over a tough out in Matt Schnell. If Durden doesn’t lean on his grappling, he’s going to be in trouble here. However, having listened to his interviews leading up to this match-up – I expect he’ll take the path of least resistance. Van is going to be dangerous in the striking exchanges here, but I don’t expect Durden to allow this fight to take place on the feet. Cody Durden by Decision

Chris Weidman -110 vs Eryk Anders -110

• Anthony: This fight is a catchweight of 195 pounds between Chris Weidman facing Eryk Anders. We were expecting to get this bout at UFC 309 but unfortunately Anders fell ill prior to the event. Today may be the final walk for longtime veteran Chris Weidman. The former middleweight champion is still fighting here at age 40 and Weidman won his last octagon appearance. The victory was rather controversial as Weidman landed numerous eye pokes that certainly compromised Bruno Silva. He looked abysmal overall, moving slowly and failing to convert all but one takedown. I believe that Anders’ great base will allow him to keep this fight standing as well. He has defended 79 percent of his opponent’s takedowns. Anders is a southpaw striker with much quicker hands than Weidman. His power does not seem all too significant but Anders does seem to put forth energy chasing his finishes. I think he is a rather low-level athlete but facing Weidman at this stage of his career seems like a more than fair matchup. Anders is going to be the pick for me as I simply can’t get to the window and bet Weidman. While it would be nice to see him go out on top with a win there is not a clear path to victory here. These odds have closed and for that reason I am betting on Anders. Eryk Anders by Decision
• Nick: As a former Alabama University linebacker, Eryk Anders is a gifted athlete. That being said, he lacks the power you’d expect to see coming from his massive frame. He’s a quality striker in terms of technical ability, but he doesn’t always put out enough volume to win over judges on the scorecards. He has decent wrestling ability, but it’s unlikely he tries to lean on that at all in this particular match-up. Even at his advanced age, Chris Weidman is one of the better offensive wrestlers in the division as a two-time NCAA Division I All-American. Weidman held the Middleweight Championship from 2013-2015 after capturing it from UFC Hall of Famer Anderson Silva. As decorated as he is, there is no denying the fact that Weidman is far past his athletic prime, having undergone multiple surgeries and recently turning 40-years-old. This is another tough fight to call, as it features two inconsistent fighters in the twilights of their respective careers. I’ll take a small shot on Weidman here. He’s the better wrestler, and I expect he can out-volume Anders on the feet. Chris Weidman by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Bryan Battle -185 vs Randy Brown +150

• Anthony: The preliminary card begins with welterweights Bryan Battle and Randy Brown. This should be a fun scrap and good test for Battle who has been on an absolute roll. He was heavy on the scales Friday coming in several pounds heavy. Since emerging victorious on The Ultimate Fighter, Battle has gone 5-1 in the promotion looking better and better each time out. He is a real brawler with great boxing combinations and good length for a welterweight. In this division Battle’s power is jarring and I certainly think he hits harder than Brown. Battle has also proven very capable of eating punches while the same cannot be said for Brown. While I do think Brown is technically skilled he wastes a lot of time engaging opponents at range and prodding with his jabs and kicks. Battle has a huge advantage here with his muay thai if Brown is willing to oblige him in the clinch. We could see a rather low volume striking affair giving Brown a slight advantage, but I expect these two to go to war. I won’t be betting much on Battle but these odds have improved after the bad weight miss. Bryan Battle by Round Two KO
• Nick: Bryan Battle is a well-rounded fighter who continues to make dramatic improvements in all facets of his game. Battle does well striking at range. He’s a decent counter-grappler with advanced BJJ, but his overall takedown defense seems suspect at best. He is certainly most content to stand and trade at range on the feet, but he works well in the clinch and he does have sneaky BJJ if he finds himself grounded. Battle is coming off an impressive KO win over Kevin Jousset. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2022, and he seems to have elevated his game dramatically ever since he started cutting down to welterweight. Randy Brown is extremely well-rounded with KO power and underrated BJJ ability. He’s very light on his feet, with excellent head movement and solid overall striking defense. He works well behind his jab, and he uses his length more effectively than most other fighters with his frame. Brown is on an impressive three fight win streak of his own, so the line does feel a bit wide here. Battle missed weight by several pounds, but he looked decent at ceremonial weigh-ins so I don’t expect his cardio or durability to be compromised in this match-up. While I don’t like the price, I do see Battle as the rightful favorite. He’s the more potent finisher and he’s likely to be the aggressor here. Bryan Battle by Round Three KO

Movsar Evloev -250 vs Aljamain Sterling +190

• Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Movsar Evloev and Aljamain Sterling. This is a huge matchup at 145 pounds with the winner likely fighting for the division title sometime in 2025. The former bantamweight champion Sterling looks to be a good fit in this weight class. This is a very compelling bout with two uber talented grapplers squaring off. Sterling has better jiu jitsu and overall control compared to Evloev. However, Sterling is also more reliant on his grappling than Evloev is when it comes to winning fights. The undefeated Evloev has really developed his striking well with his squad at American Top Team. He is faster than Sterling, more accurate and utilizing the much better head movement. Evloev should not be very worried about Sterling’s striking or what is coming back at him. I hope he moves forward with confidence here and picks apart Sterling on the feet. Given the style fight these two normally produce it would not at all surprise me to see this bout go to decision. It is a tough spot to bet much on Evloev for fear of Sterling making it boring and winning two rounds on the mat. In terms of skill this is the toughest opponent Evloev has faced. Movsar Evloev by Decision 
• Nick: Mosvar Evloev is an extremely talented featherweight prospect. He comes into this match-up at an undefeated 17-0 with notable wins over Dan Ige, Diego Lopes, and most recently Arnold Allen. He’s a dangerous technical striker but most of his success comes on the mat, as he’s one of the best wrestlers in the division. Aljamain Sterling usually starts his fights aggressively. His strikes don’t pack a ton of power, but he’s mostly accurate, and he does a good job frustrating his opponents at range with his unconventional style. He is primarily a wrestler with excellent takedown ability and BJJ. His best position is on his opponents’ back(s), and one could argue that he’s changed the meta of the sport with his utilization of the body triangle. Sterling is coming off a dominant decision win over Calvin Kattar, which came in his divisional debut at UFC 300. Sterling decided to move up a weight class, after dropping the bantamweight title to Sean O’Malley in August of 2019. As is the case in many of Sterling’s fights, it can be expected he’ll be looking to get his grappling going both early and often here. That being said, he really hasn’t faced a wrestler on the level of Evloev. The price is wide and Sterling is certainly live for the upset here, but I’m siding with the favorite. I expect his size and strength advantages should allow him to keep this fight standing long enough to pull away on the scorecards. Movsar Evloev by Decision

Themba Gorimbo -155 vs Vicente Luque +130

• Anthony: This is a matchup at welterweight between Vicente Luque and Themba Gorimbo. We were originally slated to see Luque face off against Nick Diaz here today. Gorimbo steps in on short notice fighting locally out of Las Vegas. He has won four fights in a row since joining the UFC. While Gorimbo does not have the most explosive style he does very well mixing his martial arts and keeping his opponents guessing. Luque has the edge in terms of his technical striking but I am not too worried about Gorimbo standing toe to toe with him. I think Luque’s boxing is exceptional but his best work really only comes when he is able to move forward and hunt. Gorimbo tends to take control of the octagon center and dictate where most of his bouts take place. Confidence grappling and mixing in timely takedowns give Gorimbo the edge here in my eyes. Luque would be favored in a boxing match but I think he will struggle to win very many minutes here tonight. I think Gorimbo will be able to eat Luque’s best shots while maintaining control of this bout. Themba Gorimbo by Decision
• Nick: Themba Gorimbo is a powerful striker, capable of throwing a wide range of creative attacks offensively. That being said his defense and durability have shown to be weaknesses rather than strengths so far in his professional career. He likes to wrestle, but his takedown entries are not technically sound which makes it easy for most of his opponents to stay standing. He has been showing considerable improvements over his last few fights, but there is no denying he is still raw in his abilities. The UFC marketing machine has gotten behind him, and he’s been matched favorably since joining the promotion. While raw in his abilities, he is gifted athletically. Still, there is no denying this match-up with Luque represents a considerable step up for him in terms of level of competition. He’s taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Nick Diaz. Vicente Luque is an exciting fighter who throws a lot of volume and pushes a serious pace. He’s a powerful striker with true KO power, but he sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open for counters. He’s known for his excellent durability, willingness to eat shots in exchanges, but as a 33 fight veteran, he’s going to need to learn to fight more conservatively if he’s going to extend his career. Luque is coming off an ugly KO loss to Joaquin Buckley. He has been dealing with injuries between his fights/appearances, so it’s tough to back him here not knowing which version of him shows up for this match-up. That being said, I’m still surprised to see Gorimbo as a favorite. Gorimbo really hasn’t been tested against an opponent anywhere near the level of Luque. I expect Luque to stay a step ahead no matter where this one goes. His carer has been on a decline, but he’s still levels above his opponent in this matchup. Vicente Luque by Round Two Submission

Dominick Reyes -400 vs Anthony Smith +300

• Anthony: Closing the prelims is this light heavyweight fight between Dominick Reyes and Anthony Smith. I like the matchmaking but this bout would’ve carried more weight a few years ago when these two were prevalent in title discussions. Reyes just earned his first win since 2020, knocking out Dustin Jacoby in June. It was good to see him bounce back from three KO losses and survive while eating some clean shots. I believe that Reyes’ chin is totally dust, but thankfully Smith does not pose a huge power threat in this matchup. Normally Smith does his best work striking behind his jab and mixing in the occasional power shot. When these two are engaging at kickboxing range I expect Reyes to dominate. He is much more powerful than Smith and willing to commit to big actions. I think the lead kick from Reyes will be a key factor in this fight, constantly flinging his foot into Smith’s midsection. I consider Smith a live underdog in this bout but his paths to victory seem limited. Smith will need to force grappling exchanges and get Reyes caught in some submission attempts if he hopes to emerge victorious here. I expect we see Smith get finished after what appears to be a lackluster fight camp. He struggled to make weight on Friday. Dominick Reyes by Round Two KO
• Nick: Prior to his recent knockout win over Dustin Jacoby, Dominik Reyes’ career had been on the decline. In spite of his recent struggles, he is still best known for his outstanding performance against one of the greatest of all time in Jon Jones back in 2020. Reyes did an excellent job striking at range in that title fight. He threw extremely effective counters and he kept things close on the scorecards for the entirety of five rounds. Reyes is athletic and an extremely dangerous striker at range. He’s a competent grappler with decent BJJ and quality overall conditioning, but his durability has proven to be a major weakness across his last few fights. He did look good his last time out, but he’s a tough fighter to read given the wide range of outcomes he’s shown us against quality competition. Anthony Smith has shown outstanding cardio, and even in his recent losses he has shown quality durability. Even when he’s getting crushed, he is difficult or impossible to put away. He is certainly in the twilight of his career at 36-years old, but he’s still one of the more well-rounded fighters in the light heavyweight division. These are two inconsistent fighters so this is a tough one to call, but I do see Reyes as the rightful favorite. In spite of his flaws, his speed and athleticism advantages here should be apparent over the aging Smith. Reyes has had issues with power punchers in the past, but Smith doesn’t really fit that criteria. Dominick Reyes by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Nate Landwehr -135 vs Doo Ho Choi +110

• Anthony: The main card opens with a must see fight at featherweight between Nate Landwehr and Doo Ho Coi. These two have combined for five performance bonuses and four UFC bouts deemed Fight of the Night. Every Landwehr fight is a brawl with Nate rushing to close the distance early on. He is an extremely high pressure fighter with enough cardio to keep an unreal pace. Choi will have the edge striking here in technical exchanges but Landwehr does not tend to stay at range for long. In what will likely be a dogfight I prefer Landwehr due to his grit and overall durability. Landwehr tends to always rally after getting knocked down. Choi also seems to have the more suspect chin with Landwehr’s only knockout losses coming by brutal knees. Choi has the boxing to clip and hurt Landwehr but I’d rather bet my money on Nate as a small favorite. He impressed me last time beating Jamall Emmers and I think this is an easier test for him today. Nate Landwehr by Round Three KO
• Nick: Nate Landwehr is a brawler, but he’s fairly well-rounded. He likes to fight on the feet, but he has a solid wrestling base and his overall athleticism allows him to escape tough positions against relatively advanced grapplers. He’s dangerous everywhere offensively, but his fight IQ has put him in dangerous positions in the past. His kill-or-be-killed style makes him a dangerous fighter to back as a favorite, but it’s that same style that makes him a fan favorite and one of the more exciting fighters to watch outside of the rankings at featherweight. Do Hoo Choi was once a highly regarded prospect, but his time away in the Korean military slowed down the momentum of his ascension as a fighter. Choi is a powerful and athletic striker, coming off an impressive KO win over Bill Algeo that also marked his first win since 2016. His fight with Swanson was a fight of the year in 2016 and it is now a part of the UFC Hall of Fame. He’s a powerful striker, but defensively he leaves a lot of openings to be countered. This should be a competitive match-up for however long it lasts, but I do see Landwehr as the rightful favorite. His chin is certainly cause for concern, but I expect as this fight wears on he’ll manage to weaponize his cardio. Nate Landwehr by Round Three KO

Bryce Mitchell -900 vs Kron Gracie +575

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at featherweight between Kron Gracie and Bryce Mitchell. I struggle to bet Mitchell here at such a high number but he is of course the rightful favorite today. Gracie has world class jiu jitsu but I do not think he should be fighting in a cage at this stage of his career. His last performance at UFC 288 was abysmal. He is very much reliant on his grappling to stand a chance in any fight. Mitchell has superb wrestling and cage grappling so I doubt Kron catches him in any sort of submission here. Mitchell would be wise to strike as frequently as he can today seeing as how Gracie possesses little to no power on the feet. Mitchell was badly slept in his last appearance but that was against a tremendous power puncher in Josh Emmett. Gracie does not have the boxing to hurt Mitchell even as he is moving forward. Perhaps Gracie can find a body lock takedown here but Mitchell should have no problem assuming top position. Gracie wants to play in his guard and that is not the recipe for success here facing a stronger wrestler. Bryce Mitchell by Decision
• Nick: Bryce Mitchell is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the world at featherweight. He comes into this fight at 17-2, having been out of action since December of 2023 where he suffered a brutal KO loss to Josh Emmett that rendered him unconscious and seizing for several minutes. His striking continues to improve, but there is no denying his game plan is almost always to wrestle and grapple both early and often. Kron Gracie is 5-2 professionally, with all five of those wins coming via submission. As the son of Rickson Gracie and the grandson of Helio Gracie, it should come as no surprise that he has truly elite BJJ ability. His game is fairly one dimensional, but whenever he can ground his opponent he is very live for a quick submission finish. On the feet, his durability is his greatest strength. He’s coming off a terrible performance against Charles Jourdain back in May of 2023, and he’s been out of action since that loss. The line here is somewhat ridiculous as Mitchell is going to be forced to strike more than he usually does. As long as he avoids spending too much time on the mat, I expect he can secure a dominant decision. Bryce Mitchell by Decision

Ciryl Gane -400 vs Alexander Volkov +300

• Anthony: The featured bout is between heavyweights Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov. This fight is a rematch of a 2021 bout that saw Gane beat Volkov 50-45. While by the numbers Gane did not win convincingly, he connected with the much more meaningful strikes and managed distance masterfully. It is odd that this rematch is only three rounds when these two have already fought for a full five. Volkov has made significant improvements since that meeting, winning all four of his last appearances. The Russian is fighting a bit more aggressively and trusting his striking to get the job done. It will likely again be the cage where Volkov cannot land lean strikes on Gane’s chin. While jabs to the body are effective to some degree it will not be enough for Volkov to take this one. It will take a big moment from Volkov to win any of these rounds here today. Gane’s footwork and constant movement make him very tough to find. He can fight smart and win this bout the same way he did the first time. Gane was -175 in their first meeting but now he is -400 today. Those odds do not make too much sense to me but it does seem tough to go against Gane in this one. Cyril Gane by Decision
• Nick: Alexander Volkov has advanced technical boxing ability. He uses his range well and works effectively behind his jab. He has shown excellent cardio for a heavyweight, and he’s coming off four straight wins with three of them coming via finish. Volkov is 38-10 professionally, and he’s taken on the majority of the big names in the division. Ciryl Gane is one of the most athletic fighters there is in the world at heavyweight. He moves extremely fast for this division, possessing excellent footwork and an overall athleticism that is usually considered rare for the weight class. Ciryl Gane lands more than 5 significant strikes per minute and he absorbs less than 2. Gane manages range extremely well. He is very difficult to hit and his footwork is extremely advanced for someone his size. Gane is 12-2 professionally, with his only losses coming to champions in Jon Jones and Frances Ngannou. He has been out of action since he secured a win over Sergei Spivac back in 2023, but his return back to action should go smoothly as he’s taking on a familiar opponent in Alexander Volkov. Gane already has a win over Volkov, which came in a dominant decision back in June of 2021. While I do expect Volkov to give a better showing of himself this time around, it’s tough not to expect Gane to repeat the result of their last meeting. I expect a relatively low level kickboxing match here in which the favorite has the bigger moments. Ciryl Gane by Decision

Shavkat Rakhmonov -400 vs Ian Garry +300

• Anthony: The co-main event is a five round matchup at welterweight between Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Garry. This is a very high level fight between rising, undefeated fighters. Rakhmonov is a perfect 18-0 with all of his professional wins coming by way of finish. Rakhmonov was originally slated to face Belal Muhammad here for the title but now he must earn his right to compete for the belt. There is no doubt Rahmonov is the real deal at 170 and certainly a future champion. His aggressive nature and excellent fundamental skills make him very difficult to gameplan for. Garry has previously trained with Rakhmonov and knows that these two are an even match. Garry is the faster and more fluid striker, landing better boxing combinations and attacks from range. Rakhmonov is not as consistent with his striking or his distance management. He is a very dangerous fighter in the clinch but I do not expect Garry to oblige him there for very long. Rakhmonov has a slight edge grappling against Garry but he often seems to prefer his fights on the feet. I am excited to see his sambo against the great judo skills of Garry. It would be a mistake for Rakhmonov to brawl with Garry when the path of least resistance surely comes via the takedown. This fight is lined to go more than fifteen minutes making it one of Rakhmonov’s toughest tests to date. I think this five round environment plays to Garry’s benefit and if this is a kickboxing match it will go the full distance. Garry is an incredible value bet here getting +300 in a very tough fight to call. Ian Garry by Decision
• Nick: The 30-year-old Sambo specialist, Shavkat Rakhmonov, already has notable victories over Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, and most recently Stephen Thompson. He’s a very dangerous grappler on the mat with a solid wrestling base and creative BJJ. His striking looks a lot more developed than it did when he made his promotional debut, but he has always relied on precision more than power. He’s very tall, he has a strong judo base, effective sweep takedowns and looks sharp in scrambles as well. The one knock on Rakhmonov is that he’s hittable, but he’s shown solid durability, and I expect we continue to see improvements in his defense. Rakhmonov was originally scheduled to fight for the title here, but he’s taking on a short notice replacement in Ian Garry as Belal Muhammad is sidelined due to a foot injury. Ian Machado Garry enters this fight as a heavily hyped prospect and a former Cage Warriors Welterweight Champion. He’s still developing his skills in general, but he already shows an impressive professional resume with an undefeated 15-0 record. His striking continues to improve dramatically, he has a solid wrestling base, and enough power standing and ability on the mat to find finishes against a wide range of opponents. Garry will be competitive here when these two are striking at a distance, but over the course of five rounds I expect Rakhmonov’s superior grappling ability to shine through. While I don’t like the price, I am siding with the favorite. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Round Four Submission

Alexandre Pantoja -260 vs Kai Asakura +200

• Anthony: The main event decides the flyweight world championship with Alexandre Pantoja facing promotional newcomer Kai Asakura. After sixteen fights and two titles secured in RIZIN, Asakura is taking a step up to face the best competition here in the UFC. His resume is a mixed bag with several quality wins to his credit, but also a handful of losses against the likes of Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi. The advantage for Asakura fighting here at flyweight is his great size and power. He is an explosive striker with good boxing and tremendous ground and pound. I think this will be a tall test for him dealing with such drastic rule changes and a dominant champion standing across the way. Pantoja is in excellent form lately, having won three straight title fights. Pantoja is a problem standing due to the frantic pace he sets and a chin that has been rock solid. He mixes in the grappling better than any champion, scoring timely takedowns and drowning opponents on the mat. In top position Pantoja is content to burn minutes off the clock and bully Asakura. I expect him to get to the back of Asakura at some point and show that he is levels above with his jiu jitsu. I think at the current odds Pantoja is an excellent bet to retain his title. I expect him to find a finish here but only after a few competitive rounds early. And Still. Alexandre Pantoja by Round Four Submission
• Nick: Alexandre Pantoja is elite pretty much everywhere. He’s outstanding on the ground and his striking is crisp and explosive. He’s on a six-fight winning streak, most recently defending his title against a dangerous opponent in Steve Erceg. This will be Pantoja’s third title defense since he captured it from Brandon Moreno back in 2023, and in all of his recent wins it seems he’s been a bit more reserved, and also more willing to lean on his wrestling to secure rounds on the scorecards. Kai Asakura is getting a title shot here, but this fight also represents his promotional debut. Asakura is 21-4 professionally, with most of his success coming for a respectable Japanese promotion in RIZIN. Asakura has primarily fought at bantamweight, and it’s notable he’ll be moving down a weight class here as he looks to capture the UFC flyweight championship. Asakura is primarily a striker with thirteen of his twenty-one professional wins coming via KO. He’s aggressive early in most of his fights, and he pushes a serious pace on his opponents. He does his best work moving forward, but his hyper aggressive style does also mean he can be hittable in lengthy exchanges. He has decent BJJ offensively, but his takedown defense seems to be more of a weakness than a strength, and he has struggled at times to work back to his feet if he is taken down by a wrestler. Asakura will be the bigger and more powerful striker in this match-up, but Pantoja has excellent durability. I expect the champion to lean on a grappling heavy gameplan as he secures another title defense. And Still. Alexadre Pantoja by Round Three Submission

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Photo: UFC.com