UFC Edmonton Full Card Analysis & Picks

UFC Edmonton: Moreno vs Albazi – 11.2.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Edmonton: Moreno vs Albazi. We return to Canada for a fun slate of fights live from Rogers Place in Edmonton. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 270-166-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
Nick: 265-171-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-1-2024 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Jamey-Lyn Horth -220 vs Ivana Petrovic +180

Anthony: The event begins with this fight between flyweights Ivana Petrovic and Jamey-Lyn Horth. This is a very low-level matchup and likely a bout I won’t be betting on. Petrovic won in her most recent appearance but only against a rather soft opponent in Liang Na. The southpaw has had an underwhelming start to her promotional career, showcasing her grappling just as much as striking. While Petrovic has some pretty clean kickboxing she does not land with much meaning or power. Horth is if nothing else an accurate boxer with the heavier hands in this matchup. Petrovic may look to test Horth’s takedown defenses but over the course of three rounds these ladies will mostly be striking. Horth has proven ot be very tough and I give her the edge as these two get after it. She is a sizeable betting favorite but not worth much of a look to include when building your parlays. Petrovic could perhaps score a few timely takedowns, making this fight very interesting. Jamey-Lyn Horth by Decision
Nick: Horth is 33-years old, but only 6-1 professionally. She is coming off a hard fought loss in her UFC debut to Veronica Hardy, but she fought well and gave a good showing of herself against a quality level of opponent. She has been out of action since that fight back in December of 2023. She seems fairly well-rounded when you watch her on film, but it’s tough to say she has any singular standout skill offensively. That being said, she is big for the division and her cardio and durability are certainly strengths. Ivana Petrovic is 7-1 professionally, coming off a submission win over Na Liang. Petrovic is a well-rounded fighter, but she hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. She has decent power on the feet, she has shown solid cardio and durability, but it seems she prefers to grapple when she takes on decent strikers. Horth should be the better technical striker at range here, and I expect she’ll rehydrate into being the much bigger fighter by the time this fight takes place. A low level match-up and a low confidence play, but see Horth winning as she outmuscles her opponent in this one. Jamey-Lyn Horth by Decision

Cody Gibson -220 vs Chad Anheliger +180

Anthony: Next is a bantamweight matchup between Chad Anheliger and Cody Gibson. Gibson is not an intimidating striker but his length will give Anheliger issues here as he tries to move in. While both fighters work from the orthodox stance, Gibson has a seven-inch reach edge over Anheliger and stands several inches taller. I think Gibson has solid hands but more than anything I trust his volume and durability to win out against this opponent. He is the better offensive grappler and should hold the edge over Anheliger if he does elect to wrestle. Not only does Gibson threaten with chokes but he is also very good at controlling opponents. He does well entering the pocket via striking and slithering his way to the back. Gibson is also not afraid to bite down on the mouthpiece as needed. I like his chances of finding a win via submission before the final horn sounds here. Anheliger has been finished on numerous occasions before. Cody Gibson by Round Two Submission
Nick: Cody Gibson is 20-10 professionally, coming off an impressive win via submission over Brian Kelleher. He’s well-rounded, with seven of his professional wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. He’s getting up there in age, but he’s extremely durable with a very high fight IQ. Gibson does a good job pushing a pace and forcing his opponents to fight moving backwards. He can be hittable in extended striking exchanges, but he has solid cardio and durability for someone his age. Chad Angeliger is 37 years old, so if he’s going to make any noise in the UFC he’ll need to secure some wins in a hurry. He’s 2-2 in the UFC, most recently winning via decision over Charalampos Grigoriou back in March. He’s decent everywhere, with seven of his thirteen professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission, but he really hasn’t found any success against high level opposition. These are two similar fighters in terms of style and age, but Gibson should be able to stay a step ahead. He’s the more aggressive striker, the bigger fighter here, and I expect he’s the better grappler in this one as well. Cody Gibson by Decision

Serhiy Sidey -140 vs Garrett Armfield +115

Anthony: We should be in for a treat here as bantamweights Serhiy Sidey and Garrett Armfield battle. Both men enter this fight off of losses and eager to get back to their winning ways. Sidey is a very good kickboxer, effective at switching stances and using his length well. He is much taller than Armfield and benefiting from a two-inch advantage in reach. While Sidey is the better technical striker, Armfield is very dangerous with serious power at this weight. Many opponents have elected to grapple against Armfield as it is the easiest path to success. Sidey does not seem like the type to shoot often and I expect to see a brawl here for the duration of this fight. Armfield is a live underdog but it will take Sidey walking into something to sway this fight. While Armfield may be the more aggressive fighter here late, Sidey will likely take an early lead in this bout giving him more options as it concludes. I expect both men to wear some damage here in what could be the Fight of the Night. Now that these odds have closed I am betting my money on Sidey. Serhiy Sidey by Decision
Nick: Serhiy Sidey is 10-2 professionally, coming off a loss to Ramon Tavares in his UFC debut, which came in a narrow decision. He’s 28-years old and generally well-rounded, but we have yet to see him tested extensively against top level competition. He takes a lot of damage in exchanges, and while he’s decent everywhere it seems he doesn’t really have any singular standout skill. He fights moving forward and his chin is solid, but he takes as much damage as he dishes out. He has decent BJJ, but his wrestling and scrambling ability seem far from fully developed. Garrett Armfield is 10-4 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. He is 2-2 in the UFC, coming off an ugly submission loss to Brady Heistand back in June. Armfield has a solid wrestling base, and on the feet he packs surprising power for his frame. He has excellent cardio and durability, and his fight IQ has been a major strength for him since he broke into the promotion. His gas tank did seem to fail him to an extent his last time out, but the pace in that fight against Heistand certainly appeared to be an outlier. Armfield is the better striker as he has a better understanding of footwork. He should have a considerable power advantage on the feet here as well. Sidey is the bigger and more athletic fighter in this match-up, but I expect Armfield’s superior fundamentals to shine through. Garrett Armfield by Decision

Alexandr Romanov -125 vs Rodrigo Nascimento +105

Anthony: This is a heavyweight fight between Alexandr Romanov and Rodrigo Nascimento. The odds tell the story of this matchup as this fight is truly a pickem. These are two low-level heavyweights that hardly deserve their spot on the UFC roster. Romanov has been terrible in his past four fights, failing to score more than four total takedowns. His striking is abysmal but Romanov has the size and grappling credentials to slice through most opponents on the ground. I worry about him perhaps grounding Nascimento but Romanov has also failed to finish many fights. Nascimento is a purple belt in BJJ and one of few that can likely oppose Romanov when grappling. Not only that, but Nascimento has much cleaner striking and better attacks from range. The southpaw Romanov will struggle to keep pace with Nascimento if these two are going shot for shot on the feet. Romanov has also displayed lackluster cardio, costing him on quite a few occasions before. I cannot take him in this fight although his chances are solid. I would not want to bet on Romanov here only to see Nascimento still standing in rounds two and three. Rodrigo Nascimento by Decision
Nick: Rodrigo Nascimento enters this match-up with six of his eleven wins coming via submission. He’s a decorated BJJ Black Belt, who in most of his fights tries to drag things to the mat as early as possible. Prior to a quick KO loss to Derrick Lewis his last time out he was on a three-fight win streak, and at 31-years old he’s actually on the younger side for the division. The 33-year-old Romonav has shown an ability to lift other heavyweights entirely off the ground and rag-doll them as if they were a whole lot smaller. He has decent striking ability at range, but highly effective ground-and-pound and a decent choke game when can take his opponents to the mat. His striking is mostly plodding and predictable, and his cardio and durability have been questionable at best. This is another volatile match-up between two inconsistent heavyweights. Nascimento will be the better striker here, but I don’t expect it will be by a wide enough margin to keep this fight on the feet. I see Romanov securing a win in this one, as he leans on a grappling heavy gameplay. Alexandr Romanov by Decision

Youssef Zalal 300 vs Jack Shore +240

Anthony: This is a featherweight contest between Jack Shore and Youssef Zalal. I am very interested to see how these two skilled athletes matchup with one another. Shore is a sizeable underdog having been knocked out in his last octagon appearance. Zalal is coming off a great win over Jarno Errens his last time out. He enters tonight on a five fight winning streak. His losses have also aged very well, coming up short in decisions against the likes of Ilia Topuria and Sean Woodson. While Zalal is of course confident in his kickboxing abilities, he will be tested more on the mat facing Shore. On average we see Shore land better than one takedown per round, likely making it an interesting clash of styles. Zalal is comfortable when initiating grappling exchanges but Shore is another level when it comes to those high pace scrambles. I am not sure Zalal will respond well if taken down but he should have the jiu jitsu to get out of positions that Shore may put him. As good as the resurgence has been for Zalal I am still hesitant to bet him here as a sizeable favorite. I think this is a fight either man can win on the judge’s scorecards. I favor Zalal slightly thanks to that fluid striking and the power he has previously displayed. Youssef Zalal by Decision
Nick: Youseff Zalal was cut from the UFC back in 2022, but he has since returned to the promotion after securing three wins via finish fighting for Sparta Combat League and returning to the UFC with recent finishes over Billy Quarantillo and Jarno Errens. Zalal is well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. He’s made dramatic improvements since his first stint with the promotion as he’s far more aggressive in pursuing a finish. Whether striking or on the mat, he’s been putting out plenty of volume as he generally forces his opponents to fight moving backwards. Jack Shore is primarily a grappler and he comes into this match-up with a solid 17-2 professional record. He has a solid wrestling base with an excellent gas tank and he continues to show considerable improvements in his striking. Shore is content to stand and trade, but his chain wrestling is what has led him to most of his wins professionally. I expect Shore to score takedowns here, but I’m not confident in his ability to damage Zalal when he’s grounded. Zalal is the much better striker in this match-up, I expect Shore struggles at range. Youssef Zalal by Decision

Charles Jourdain -130 vs Victor Henry +110

Anthony: We are in for a great bout here between Charles Jourdain and Victor Henry. These are two very exciting fighters that always produce high action scraps. While Jourdain averages a healthy 5.48 significant strikes per minute, Henry’s average is a whopping 8.34 landed. He is very good at switching stances and finding safe entries into the pocket. Henry also has above average wrestling, although he sometimes neglects to use it. Jourdain moves down to 135 pounds here coming off a knockout loss at UFC 303. His previous 14 promotional appearances were all at featherweight or heavier. I am skeptical how Jourdain will perform at this weight class but his skillset is certainly more developed than Henry’s. Jourdain is extremely fast and great at landing his strikes in combination. The Canadian can also hold his own when grappling, largely catching opponents with chokes. He is going to threaten Henry with the guillotine here any chance he gets. I am expecting a back and forth bout, making this prediction very tough. I am a fan of Jourdain but as he continues to get action here I am more tempted to pick the betting underdog. Henry should give him a very tough fight as he makes his first cut to bantamweight. It is also a fight that seems very likely to go to the scorecards. Victor Henry by Decision
Nick: Victor Henry finds most of his success pressuring his opponents and wearing them down with volume. He got his UFC contract late in his career, but he has found a lot of success in respectable Japanese promotions via RIZIN and Pancrase. He’s a talented catch/counter-wrestler, training under Josh Barnett. He prefers to stand and trade, but he’s excellent in scrambles and does a good job using the momentum of his opponent to find opportunistic positions offensively. Jourdain has flashed knockout power, which was fully on display in his UFC debut against Doo Ho Choi. He throws a wide range of flashy strikes, pushing an excellent pace and controlling the cage against lower-level opponents. He’s coming off back-to-back losses, but he’s moving down a weight class now as he was somewhat outsized at featherweight. At his best, Jourdain has excellent cardio and he generally does a good job building momentum and giving the best showing of himself in later rounds. This is a tough fight to call as Jourdain is moving down a weight class and both of these fighters are inconsistent. I don’t live the price, but I like Jourdain as the favorite in front of his home crowd. I expect he’ll land the bigger shots on the feet and he should have the cardio to keep up with Henry for fifteen minutes. Charles Jourdain by Decision

Jasmine Jasudavicius -220 vs Ariane Lipski +180

Anthony: This is a women’s flyweight bout between Ariane Lipski and Jasmine Jasudavicius. When it comes to Canadian prospects, none are quite as hot as Jasudavicius as of late. She is currently the #14 ranked flyweight and en route to a spot in the top ten soon. Jasudavicius should be able to implement her grappling and get over on Lipski when this fight hits the mat. Jasmine is a brown belt in BJJ while Lipski is just a purple belt. Most of the time Jasudavicius is winning fights by mixing in her wrestling. Jasudavicius should also have a small edge over Lipski while striking but her punches do not seem to have much effect at all on her opponents. Jasudavicius largely uses her high volume as a means to close distance or win favor with the judges. Lipski is going to be the woman putting forth more effort for a finish and likely landing the more meaningful strikes.However, Jasudavicius will look to take Lipski to the ground quickly and rack up control time here on home soil. She will not be in danger here as long as Lipski is underneath her in this fight. Jasudavicius is one of my more confident selections tonight. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
Nick: Jasmine Jasudavicius is decent everywhere, but she’s found more success grappling than she has striking. Her takedown entries are somewhat predictable, but she’s surprisingly strong for her frame so she’s able to secure them even when her opponents see them coming. She is 11-3 professionally and 5-2 in the UFC. Ariane Lipski is athletic and occasionally she looks like a top level talent, but she has been mostly inconsistent for the extent of her UFC tenure. She’s decent everywhere, but she doesn’t really merge her grappling and striking well. She telegraphs many of her strikes, and she can only find success on the mat if she lucks into a favorable position. Lipski will be the more technically advanced striker in this match-up, but there is no denying Jasudavicius will have a considerable advantage if this fight hits the mat. The line feels wide, but I’ll side with the favorite in front of her home crowd here. Lipski isn’t a pushover, but on the mat I expect she’ll be significantly outclassed. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision

Aiemann Zahabi -150 vs Pedro Munhoz +125

Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at bantamweight between Pedro Munhoz and Aiemann Zahabi. While I was not previously very high on Zahabi he has impressed me quite a bit on the recent win streak. Zahabi has been victorious in four straight fights after recently beating the previously undefeated Javid Basharat. While Zahabi has always been a technically skilled striker, he has fought with much more confidence lately and a much higher workrate. He is able to rely on his skill and length to win fights that take place at kickboxing range. Punhoz will likely be forcing exchanges here against Zahabi in the pocket to combat a three-inch deficit in reach. He has struggled against longer opponents in past meetings with Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera. Munhoz is always dangerous early on but the 38 year old is starting to decline sharply before our eyes. His last performance was a bad loss versus Kyler Phillips where he struggled to find his range or land any takedowns. Zahabi will be much quicker than Munhoz and more productive over the course of three rounds. I give him the slight edge here fighting on home soil with Firas Zahabi and the rest of the Tristar team. He is a decent bet at -150 odds. Aiemann Zahabi by Decision
Nick: Pedro Munhoz has notable wins over Rob Font, Jimmie Rivera, and Chris Gutierrez. He’s extremely well-rounded with a solid wrestling base and surprising power for a bantamweight. In his most recent win over Gutierrez, he did an excellent job leaning on his grappling to control the pace of the fight. He did a good job mixing in leg kicks to close distance on Gutierrez and secured takedowns frequently and consistently. He has since dropped back-to-back fights against Kyler Phillips and Marlon Vera, but there is no denying this match-up with Zahabi represents a step down for him in terms of level of competition. Aiemann Zahabi is a talented striker who can throw quick and effective combinations. He works well behind his jab and he generally does a good job staying out of danger and striking on the outside. He has underrated BJJ, but he’s often tentative in the cage and his lack of activity often costs him either defensively or on the scorecards.He’s on a three fight win-streak, coming off an impressive upset win over a tough out in Jahvid Basharat. Zahabi carries a lot of momentum into this match-up, but I still expect Munhoz to show he’s a class above him here. Even in the twilight of his career, he should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Pedro Munhoz by Decision

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Mike Malott -300 vs Trevin Giles +240

Anthony: The main card opens with welterweights Mike Malott and Trevin Giles. This is a huge fight for Malott trying to redeem himself north of the border. In January, Malott crumbled late and succumbed to a third round finish against Neil Magny. The stunned crowd was almost silent watching Malott fall apart live in Ontario. Hopefully the time off has allowed Malott to adjust his strategy and make cardiovascular improvements. Giles does not seem like as steep a test and honestly this is a great booking for Malott. His speed and accuracy will be an issue for Giles who does not tend to fight well early. My biggest criticism of Malott is his defensive awareness but Giles is not so skilled to necessarily take advantage. Giles will be depending on a big strike landing to take this bout from Malott. The far better grappler is Malott and I find it likely that he tests Giles’ takedown defense here. Giles has stuffed 71 percent of opponent takedowns but he has also been submitted three times since joining the UFC. Malott will keep this fight competitive while standing but I expect him to finish Giles once he engages him on the mat. Bet Malott inside the distance. Mike Malott by Round One Submission
Nick: Malott has been a coach at American Top Team for years, but he only recently began re-engaging in professional competition. He’s a dangerous BJJ player, but his takedown entries and overall wrestling base is far from refined. He is a creative striker offensively, but he often leaves himself open to be countered. Malott is 3-0 in the UFC with all three wins coming via finish. He continues to show massive improvements fight to fight, but there’s no denying he took a big step back in his development as he mostly recently fell to Neil Magny in devastating fashion earlier this year. Malott was dominating that fight, but he overexerted himself chasing a finish and was then taken out by Magny as his cardio completely depleted. He’ll be looking to get back in the win column here, against another tough vet in Trevin Giles. Trevin Giles is primarily a boxer. He has a powerful jab and does a good job using it to set up his power shots. As effective as he is offensively, he sometimes gets overconfident and leaves his hands down. He’s a competent grappler both offensively and defensively, but there is no denying he’s most comfortable fighting on the feet. He has notable wins over Roman Dolidze, James Krause, and Ryan Spann. However, he is wildly inconsistent and it seems he’s lost some of the speed and athleticism he had early in his career. Giles should keep this competitive early, but I expect Malott to dominate if and when this fight hits the mat. The price is wide here, but Malott is the rightful favorite. Mike Malott by Round Two Submission

Marc-Andre Barriault -200 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +160

Anthony: Next is a middleweight scrap between Dustin Stoltzfus and Marc-Andre Barriault. Similar to Malott in the prior bout, Barriault was a loser the last time UFC hosted fights in Canada. Barriault came up short in a high action brawl facing off against Chris Curtis. Since then Barriault has also suffered a knockout loss at the hands of Joe Pyfer. It is a dangerous proposition backing Barriault on any occasion given the fact his chin has now been cracked. Thankfully this matchup should play out in his favor as Stoltzfus does not seem to be a powerful middleweight. Most of the time Stoltzfus is doing his best work by outgrappling opponents and working toward a submission. Barriault has defended 67 percent of opponent takedowns and fought out of many poor positions before. I think his size and pressure make it very difficult for opponents to maintain control. Stoltzfus will have opportunities to ground him in this showing but I fear for his safety if he does not get Barriault to the mat. The Canadian is known for his relentless pressure and offensive boxing that really does not stop. He should be able to bully Stoltzfus in this matchup unless he walks into too many double leg attempts. I like to fade Stoltzfus at any opportunity I get. Marc-Andre Barriault by Round Two KO
Nick: Barriault fights at a torrid pace. He has decent power and does a good job putting pressure on his opponents. His durability allows him to easily close distance and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges on the feet. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come via taking damage easy and waiting for his opponents to drain their gas tanks then taking over late. As durable as he’s been for most of his career, it is worth mentioning he was KO’d his last time out against a rising prospect in Joe Pyfer. Dustn Stoltzfus is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and while his BJJ is still very much developing, he’s already shown an ability to find creative submissions with wins via both kneebar and twister. As impressive as this may seem, he’s only really been dominating on the ground against low-level competition. He’s hittable on the feet and tentative in exchanges. He has some power but it’s rare we see him in the pocket long enough to land it. Stoltzfus will be very live for the upset here if he chooses to take this fight to the mat. He’s also dangerous on the feet, but I expect Barriault can mostly keep this fight standing and then weaponize his cardio as this fight wears on. Marc-Andre Barriault by Round Three KO

Caio Machado -160 vs Brendson Ribeiro +135

Anthony: This is a light heavyweight matchup between Brendson Ribeiro and Caio Machado. These are two exciting Brazilians that are not afraid to get after it in this very dangerous division. Since joining the promotion both men are 0-2 and searching for their first victory inside of the octagon. Machado is a southpaw who has great sustained boxing pressure and very quick hands. It appears that Machado struggles to connect with power but he has proven to be steady in each fight, constantly moving forward and putting forth volume. Machado is averaging more than six significant strikes landed per minute. He has a great chin and Ribeiro will struggle to beat him in a pure striking battle. Ribeiro will likely take an early lead in this fight but as these two feel eachother out I expect Machado to build confidence. He is the bigger athlete, moving down from a heavyweight appearance in his last bout. Perhaps Ribeiro can score the takedowns he needs to win today but I find myself instead siding with the betting favorite. Machado will find a late knockout or win this fight on the scorecards. Caio Machado by Round Three KO
Nick: Caio Machado is decent everywhere, but far from technically refined. Generally speaking, he lacks power as a heavyweight. He is 8-3-1 professionally, and 0-2 in the UFC. At 29-years old he’s still young for the division, so it’s safe to expect he’ll make considerable improvements from fight to fight. Brendson Ribeiro is primarily a striker with a kill-or-be-killed level of aggression. He is extremely dangerous on the feet offensively, but he leaves himself open to be countered in exchanges. All fifteen of his professional wins have come via finish, but he has also been finished in five of his seven professional losses. There is always volatility in low level light heavyweight fights and I really don’t like backing either of the fighters in this match-up. That being said, Machado does appear to be in the best shape of his life. I expect each of these fighters to have improved, but the more dramatic improvements will be on the side of the favorite. Caio Machado by Round Two KO

Jhonata Diniz -170 vs Derrick Lewis +145

Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at heavyweight between Derrick Lewis and Jhonata Diniz. We should be in for a good striking match here, as long as this fight lasts. Lewis has been alternating wins and losses coming off a victory in his last bout, a main event. He knocked out Rodrigo Nascimento at the start of round three. It seems like he will remain a division staple for quite a while longer as Lewis still sits on the right side of age 40. He is far more experienced in cage fights than the 8-0 Diniz. While I have been impressed with Diniz overall I am not sure his kickboxing is so much better than Lewis’. The Black Beast has decisive power that gives him the edge in any match fought standing. Diniz is a former kickboxing world champion and while he is technically much better, he does not crack so hard. Diniz does well landing heavy low kicks and putting together more modest punches in combination. Lewis is of course relying on that one big shot landing but I like his chances of connecting here as he faces Diniz. This is not a very mobile target and Lewis will at least find some early success before the striking deficient matters. Lewis is certainly a live underdog and good value when compared to other dogs on this card. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO
Nick: Derrick Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-three of his twenty-eight professional wins coming via KO. Jhonata Diniz is 8-0 professionally, with seven of his eight professional wins coming via KO. At 33-years old Diaz is getting a relatively late start to his MMA career, but he already has an extensive professional kickboxing background fighting for the likes of Glory and WGP Kickboxing. He is 2-0 in the UFC, with wins over Austen Lane and Karl Williams. As impressive as his resume has been so far, this match-up with Lewis represents a dramatic step up for him in terms of level of competition. As is always the case with heavyweights, this is a very volatile match-up. Diniz will be the better technical striker here, but Lewis’ power and durability seem underrated by the market. Lewis has taken on a much higher level of opponent, and with this being a three round fight I really don’t have any concerns about his gas tank. I’ll side with the underdog given the discrepancy in experience. Derrick Lewis by Round Two KO

Erin Blanchfield -140 vs Rose Namajunas +115

Anthony: The co-main event is a women’s flyweight match between Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield. I think this is a very competitive match, perhaps between the present and future of women’s fighting. Blanchfield is just 25 years old with a lot of growing still to do. Namajunas is a big step up in competition for Blanchfield who really built an impressive UFC resume. She did suffer defeat last time out against Manon Fiorot but I consider her to be among the division’s best strikers. Blanchfield seemed ready for that five round bout but we saw her significantly outclassed. I think she may find success grappling here against Namajunas but it is hard to imagine her securing dominant position for a majority of these five rounds. Namajunas has even gotten more comfortable implementing more offensive wrestling of her own. Blanchfield will be in for a rude awakening if she thinks Namajunas will fade after a few minutes on bottom. I doubt she can fight as effectively as Namajunas here in the third, fourth and fifth. The former champion still knows how to win boring decisions and at flyweight I think her finishing chances are even lower than before. It would be very surprising to see Blanchfield dominate this fight despite closing as the favorite. Rose Namajunas by Decision
Nick: In spite of a recent loss to a top contender in Manon Fiorot, Erin Blanchfield has secured impressive wins over Tailia Santos, Jessica Andrade, Miranda Maverick and JJ Aldrich. She’s primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base, decent technical ability on the feet and an extremely high Fight IQ. She’s fairly slow and plodding when she strikes, but she puts out a lot of volume. She does an excellent job using her strikes to set up her takedown attempts ,and once she’s on top she does a good job using her weight to hold position. She continues to make considerable improvements as she’s only 25-years old, and many have her pegged as a future champion at 125 pounds. Rose Namajunas is extremely quick when throwing combinations, carries surprising power for her frame and does an excellent job baiting her opponents into strikes. She has dangerous BJJ offensively and her wrestling continues to improve. As talented as she is, she’s been building a reputation as an inconsistent fighter. She’s coming off a solid win over Tracy Cortez. Blanchfield is understandably the favorite as she is going to be very dangerous if this fight hits the mat. That being said, I’m not confident her wrestling is quality enough to take it there consistently. Namajunas is the better technical fighter by a wide margin on the feet here and she’s found success against a much higher level of opponent. Rose Namajunas by Decision

Brandon Moreno -165 vs Amir Albazi +140

Anthony: The main event is a flyweight matchup between Amir Albazi and Brandon Moreno. Albazi finally puts his 17-1 record to the test here against a former champion. The level of competition has not been anywhere near that of Moreno, but Albazi is quite clearly the real deal pairing great offensive grappling with a potent striking offense. He proved capable of fighting five rounds in his last fight but it was not the cleanest of showing. Albazi has an advantage in power over most flyweights but Moreno has the division’s best chin without doubt. Moreno’s tight boxing and more frequent attacks could get him an early lead today. I see him getting the better of Albazi in kickboxing exchanges, forcing attempts to wrestle as this fight goes on. It is a very difficult bout to call at near even odds but I feel Moreno is the far more reliable pick of these two. Albazi did struggle to earn a split decision in his last showing. We have already seen Moreno prove himself in the latter half of fights, dealing with adversity and defending all night against grapplers. He has all the tools to win this matchup here today. I see him overwhelming Albazi late as his man begins to fade. The winner will certainly be close to a title opportunity. Brandon Moreno by Decision
Nick: This is an excellent matchup between two of the best flyweights in the world. Moreno is one of the better offensive wrestlers at flyweight and he has an excellent gas tank to support his style. He’s somewhat awkward on the feet, but he is technically sound, striking both offensively and defensively. He lands meaningful shots and does a great job stringing together lengthy combinations. Moreno does an excellent job pushing forward and forcing his opponents to fight off their back foot. He can be over aggressive at times and present openings to be countered, which could prove troublesome to him in this match-up with Albazi. Moreno has been out of action since February, following an upset loss in front of his home crowd in Mexico against Brandon Royval. Moreno said he has mentally struggled during the majority of his time away from the cage, so it will be interesting to see the level at which he shows up to fight here. Amir Albazi has a solid wrestling base which works well in combination with his aggressive submission style. His striking is decent, he has a powerful uppercut and does a good job mixing in body shots. He sometimes leaves himself open to counters, but he mostly strikes to set up his takedowns so he’s able to stay safe in most exchanges. He is 17-1 professionally, and 4-0 under the UFC banner. He’s been out of action since June of 2023, when he was awarded a controversial split decision win over Kai Kara-France. This should be a competitive match-up, and with both fighters coming off long-layoffs it’s a tough fight to call. I slightly prefer Moreno here as we’ve seen him consistently find success in five round fights. I expect he’s durable enough to take this fight into the later rounds, where he should be able to weaponize his cardio and pull away. Brandon Moreno by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com