UFC Vegas 99: Hernandez vs Pereira – 10.19.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 99: Hernandez vs Pereira. We return to action in Las Vegas tonight for a slate of exciting fights at The Apex. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 255-157-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 249-163-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-18-2024 at 11pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST
Robelis Despaigne -350 vs Austen Lane +275
- Anthony: Today’s event begins with heavyweights Robelis Despaigne and Austen Lane. Despaigne suffered his first professional defeat last time out against Waldo Cortes-Acosta. It was the first time that Despaigne felt the deep waters of round two and three, at which time he absolutely crumbled. I am doubtful that the 6’7 heavyweight corrected his cardio issues much in the five months since that fight. Lane is a live underdog here if he is capable of surviving the likely early onslaught. Despaigne benefits from a four-inch reach advantage over Lane. His style and huge frame make him a monster to deal with in striking exchanges. Lane should look to shoot a takedown here too as he holds an advantage on the mat. I think Despaigne will be able to find that knockout punch before Lane is able to contain him. One of his powerful hooks or heavy kicks will connect with Lane early on, he has been knocked out on five occasions before. Robelis Despaigne by Round One KO
- Nick: Robelis Despaigne broke into the UFC with a KO win over Josh Parisian. He now holds a 5-1 professional record, coming into this fight off the first loss of his career, where he fell via decision to Waldo Cortes Acosta. Each of his wins have come via first round KO. At 36 years old he’s getting a late start to his MMA career, but he’s a black belt in taekwondo and even won a bronze medal in the 2012 London Olympics. Despaigne is extremely athletic for a heavyweight. He has a ridiculous 87” reach, he throws massive strikes from intelligent angles, and he generally does a good job frustrating his opponents behind his range. That being said, his defensive grappling is a major weakness. This was fully on display in his recent loss to Cortes-Acosta, a fight in which he was taken down and controlled by an opponent with limited wrestling and grappling credentials. Austen Lane is athletic for the division as a former NFL defensive lineman. He throws powerful strikes, he has decent offensively grappling ability, but his skills are still rough around the edges as he’s starting his MMA career on the back half of his athletic prime. Lane will have a chance here if he can mix in some grappling and extend this fight into the later rounds. That being said, I’m not confident he’ll be able to close the distance. The line is too wide here in what can only be described as a low-level heavyweight matchup, but Despaigne is the side. I expect his takedown defense is still a weakness, but Lane’s wrestling is anything but technical. Robelis Despaigne by Round One KO
Melissa Martinez -140 vs Alice Ardelean +115
- Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s strawweight between Melissa Martinez and Alice Ardelean. Ardelean really looked meek in her UFC debut against Shauna Bannon. That was a decision that could have gone her way but nothing regarding that performance impressed me. Martinez is more technically skilled when it comes to engaging with opponents on the feet. Her strikes tend to find a home and out of the southpaw stance I could see her giving Ardelean problems in the same manner that Bannon did. Martinez does not throw quite as many kicks but her crisp boxing could win out in this matchup. She is 7-1 as a pro and always training, part of a fighting family. There is no reason to take Ardelean here, with money continuing to move the odds into Martinez’ favor. It is a very low-level fight that I have no interest in betting. Melissa Martinez by Decision
- Nick: Melissa Martinez is a former Combate Global Strawweight Champion. She is 7-1 professionally, with her only loss coming her last time out in her UFC debut against Elise Reed. Martinez has been out of action since that fight back in September of 2022, so it’s difficult to know how she’ll look here in her return. She’s primarily a striker, who carries decent power for her frame in spite of general technical deficiencies. Alice Ardelean is 9-6 professionally, coming off a loss in her UFC debut via decision to Shauna Bannon. Ardelean has faced a mostly mediocre level of regional competition before she made it to the UFC, with the one exception being a loss to Weili Zhang in which she was submitted with relative ease. Ardelean is relatively well-rounded, but she’s somewhat unathletic for a strawweight. She has decent fundamentals, but she’s slow and predictable in her movements. This is a low level match-up, but I find myself siding with the favorite. I expect she improved considerably during her long layoff, and she’s the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup. Melissa Martinez by Decision
Elise Reed -190 vs Jessica Penne +155
- Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s strawweight between Jessica Penne and Elise Reed. This is a low-level matchup that could easily go either way. Reed has proven to be a tough out since joining the promotion but she does struggle when it comes to defending takedowns. Penne is now 41 years old with her last win coming in 2021. She is 3-5 fighting in the UFC and not a threat to anyone near the strawweight top fifteen. I do not think very highly of Reed but she certainly has the skillset to get by Penne. While Reed would prefer to keep this fight standing I am not concerned with her getting submitted if she does end up taken down. The mere 42 percent takedown defense for Reed certainly sticks out when handicapping this matchup. This is likely a fight that goes to the scorecards and Reed should certainly be favored when the judge’s decision is announced. She is going to be much quicker than Penne in the striking exchanges we see. Penne never was a power threat and Reed is the much gritter boxer. She is the rightful betting favorite in my eyes. Elise Reed by Decision
- Nick: Elise Reed is a tough and gritty military vet who is more than willing to take shots in order to throw them. She has decent footwork and her boxing is somewhat refined. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. As good as she is on the feet, Reed’s defensive grappling is a major hole in her game. That hole was fully exploited in her last fight, a submission loss to Lupita Godinez. Jessica Penne is one of the pioneers of modern women’s MMA, but there’s really no denying she’s past her prime as a competitor. She’s primarily a grappler, with nine of her fourteen professional wins coming by way of submission. She has a fairly high fight IQ, but she can be hittable in exchanges and as she continues to age her durability is becoming a bit of a concern. Reed is the better striker in this match-up, but Penne should have a considerable grappling advantage if she can find a way to take this fight to the mat. Another low level fight and low confidence play, I’ll take a shot on the underdog. Jessica Penne by Decision
Joselyne Edwards -260 vs Tamires Vidal +200
- Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight matchup between Tamires Vidal and Joselyne Edwards. It is worth noting that this was a bad weight cut for Edwards, missing the limit by more than two pounds. She has become a rather consistent performer here at 135 pounds and I fear that this may be an occasion she is not at her very best. Edwards enters tonight coming off two decision losses to Ailin Perez and Nora Cornolle. Vidal is an opponent that should not give Edwards nearly as much trouble. Vidal is a powerful boxer but the far more technical striker in this matchup is Edwards. She is a much more sound kickboxer and better at controlling opponents at range. Edwards has also begun grappling much more often in her fights. Mixing in takedowns against Vidal should make this a much clearer win for her. Vidal has struggled to defend opponent takedowns since joining the UFC. This is a great opportunity for Edwards to get back into the win column. Joselyne Edwards by Decision
- Nick: Joselyne Edwards is a Muay Thai style striker who finds most of her success striking both at range and in the clinch. She has decent offensive grappling ability, but she has trouble getting back to her feet if she’s taken down by her opponent. She’s almost always in very close fights, and this is likely to be another one here against Tamires Vidal. Tamires Vidal does a good job closing distance and landing powerful shots. She takes a lot of damage in exchanges, but she’s very durable and her power often has more impact than the majority of her opponents do at 135 pounds. At 26-years old she’s going to continue to improve, and she’s shown on more than one occasion that she can be very dangerous as an offensive grappler. This fight is likely to come down to whether or not Vidal can take Edwards down. If she can’t, Edwards speed and length is likely to present a difficult puzzle for her to solve on the feet. Edwards did miss weight for this fight and she looked terrible on the scale, but I still prefer to back her as the favorite here. She’s the more well-rounded fighter in this match-up and she should have a cardio advantage. Joselyne Edwards by Decision
Jean Matsumoto -220 vs Brad Katona +180
- Anthony: This is a great matchup at bantamweight between Jean Matsumoto and Brad Katona. Matsumoto is undefeated at 15-0 and a very bright prospect from Sao Paulo. The 25 year old found an opportunistic finish in his promotional debut, stopping Dan Argueta. I consider that win a bit lucky after Argueta had successfully secured nine takedowns. Matsumoto is an extremely well rounded fighter with excellent decision making skills in the cage. We should be in for quite the chess match here with him facing off against Katona. Matsumoto is the more potent and threatening striker in this fight but Katona can even the playing field with his own exceptional timing and combination striking. Katona will want to lean on his wrestling here to win some moments on the ground. Matsumoto will hold the slight edge striking but Katona mixes techniques well and puts forth consistent offense. This fight is favored to go to the scorecards and I believe that Katona will do enough to win a decision. On a card lacking quality underdogs I will take my chances on Katona. He always shows up in the right frame of mind and with cardio that hasn’t yet failed him. I also consider him to be the toughest opponent Matsumoto has faced to date. Brad Katona by Decision
- Nick: Jean Matsumoto is undefeated professionally with a 15-0 record, coming off an impressive submission win in his UFC debut over a quality opponent in Daniel Argueta. He’s put together an impressive resume at just 25-years old. He’s well-rounded, with six of his professional wins coming via submission and six coming via KO. He is fast and athletic, and his cardio paired with solid durability allows him to fight aggressively for fifteen minutes. Katona is a well-rounded fighter who is known for his cerebral fighting style and his extremely high Fight IQ. He does an excellent job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents. He studies his opponents extensively, but in most of his fights we see him lean on a grappling heavy game plan to grind out decisions. The one knock on him is he can be overly hesitant at times as he tends to fight down to the level of his opponent. Katona should keep this close, but I expect Matsumoto to push the pace and land the more damaging shots. Katona seems hesitant to lean on his wrestling, and if he does Matsumoto has the BJJ to give him issues. On the feet, Matsumoto is the more dynamic striker. Jean Matsumoto by Decision
Asu Almabayev -220 vs Matheus Nicolau +180
- Anthony: This is a very good matchup at flyweight between Asu Almabayev and Matheus Nicolau. Almabayev has the impressive record of 20-2 but a lot of his more quality wins have come by narrow decisions. Almbayev has secured 17 takedowns in the three fights since joining the promotion. It is great matchmaking as Nicolau has only been taken down once before in the UFC. Many opponents do not want to engage Nicolau on the mat because he has poor defensive tendencies while striking. Nicolau’s boxing is good but he has been knocked out on several occasions before. Both previous fights saw Nicolau be finished and I fear his chin may be starting to go. Nonetheless Almabayev brings the consistent wrestling pressure that could win out here. Nicolau has turned away skilled wrestlers before but Almabayev chains his takedowns together and keeps relentlessly controlling his fights. He is the rightful favorite in this spot and one of my more confident selections. Asu Almabayev by Decision
- Nick: Asu Almabaev is coming off three consecutive wins under the UFC banner. As a flyweight, he regularly trains with top welterweight contender, Shavkat Rakhmonov. He’s well-rounded with a solid wrestling base and impressive durability and cardio. He is 12-2 professionally, and widely considered a prospect to keep an eye on in spite of the fact he made his promotional debut at 29 years old. Matheus Nicolau is an underrated striker. He does a good job moving in and out of the range of his opponents. He’s a decent grappler as well, especially defensively. The biggest knock on him is that he sometimes waits for fights to come to him. He’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, but they came to two of the division’s top contenders in Alex Perez and Brandon Royval. His durability is certainly a concern as he’s been KO’d in back to back fights, but there is no denying he’s still a dangerous contender at flyweight. This fight should play out closer than the line suggests, but I do find myself on the favourite. In spite of his success, Nicolau really hasn’t been tested against a grappler on the level of Almabayev. Asu Almabayev by Decision
Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST
Darren Elkins -130 vs Daniel Pineda +110
- Anthony: The main card begins with this featherweight matchup of Darren Elkins against Daniel Pineda. These two seasoned veterans have seen it all inside of the octagon, it is fair to say both are on the back side of their careers. Elkins has not fought since last year but he continues to churn out real vintage performances. Elkins is almost impossible to stop with great grit and a motor that keeps on going no matter what. Each and every Elkins fight normally sees him taking over late after getting battered early. Pineada presents an interesting challenge with his great offensive grappling and it would not surprise me to see him submit Elkins here. The Pit is big for this weight class and I expect him to be much stronger than Elkins. However, Pineda severely lacks in cardio whereas Elkins thrives late. Pineda will not be able to stand with Elkins much past round two here. His striking is technically better than Elkins but the volume does not compare. I know Elkins will fight for my money and keep moving forward no matter what. Darren Elkins by Round Three KO
- Nick: Elkins is an extremely tough and gritty veteran known as “The Damage” for his ability to take shots and keep moving forward. He is bloodied and bruised in almost all of his fights, regardless of whether or not he wins or loses. Elkins is decent offensively but he’s also extremely hittable. He is a technically gifted wrestler who does well in scrambles but there is no denying he’s on the downturn of his career. Daniel Pineda is almost always dangerous early, but as his fights wear on he tends to fall victim to his own lack of cardio. He’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to Nathaniel Wood, a fight in which he struggled to close distance on the feet. All twenty-eight of Pineda’s professional wins have come inside the distance. Pineda is going to be aggressive early here and he’s very live to find a quick finish. However, if he doesn’t (and I expect he won’t) he’s going to start to fade. If he does, Elkins should be able to weaponize his superior cardio and durability. Pineda should dominate early, but I expect Elkins can survive and then take this one late. Darren Elkins by Round Three KO
Jake Hadley -500 vs Cameron Smotherman +375
- Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Jake Hadley and Cameron Smotherman. Hadley had originally been scheduled to face Brady Heistand here but now he instead draws a much easier opponent in Cam Smotherman. Both of these men are more appropriately flyweights fighting up at 135 pounds today. The change in class has been to the benefit of Hadley who seems much stronger and confident in his cardio. Smotherman’s long frame will prove troublesome here against a skilled grappler in Hadley. We are going to see a lot of easy takedowns converted by Hadley as he elects to shoot. It is not often that Hadley takes a heavy grappling approach but he is a highly skilled jiu jitsu practitioner that should slice through Smotherman in any position on the mat. Hadley is also a good striker that will not hesitate to move forward against Smotherman. His fast hands and great kicks will connect early and often. I very much expect Hadley to lead this dance here tonight. Jake Hadley by Round Three KO
- Nick: Cam Smotherman will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for the injured Brady Heistand. Smotherman is 11-4 professionally, primarily fighting for a respectable regional promotion via Fury FC. Smotherman’s last loss came on Dana White’s Contender Series, back in 2023, where he was KO’d by Charalompos Grigoriou. Smotherman is long for the division and a potent finisher both at striking range and on the mat, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. Jake Hadley is 3-4 in the UFC, but many feel he still has a high ceiling as a prospect. Hadley had a lot of success on the regional scene, most prominently in Cage Warriors, where he captured the flyweight title. Hadley recently made the move up to featherweight, which has seemed to improve both his durability and cardio. He’s a creative grappler, and a technically sound boxer at close range. He does sometimes struggle to defend against kicks, but there’s no denying he’s a fighter that is expected to continue to show improvement. Smotherman does seem like a UFC level prospect, but this is a very tough fight for him to be taking on short notice. I expect Hadley can lean on a grappling heavy gameplan here on his way to another quality win. Jake Hadley by Decision
Charles Johnson -250 vs Sumaderji +200
- Anthony: This should be a very fun fight at flyweight between Sumaderji and Charles Johnson. So far in 2024, Johnson has already fought and won three times. His victories have come over very skilled competition, including a finish of Joshua Van in his last octagon appearance. Johnson is connecting on more than half of his attempted significant strikes. This should largely be a match contested at kickboxing range. Sumaderji is very powerful but his strikes are often telegraphed, and rarely thrown in combination. Johnson should do his best to stay at the edge of Sumaderji’s range here. He has better speed and footwork allowing him to dance in and out of range. While Johnson is comfortable fighting out of both stances, Sumaderji will approach him as a southpaw. This is a very tough fight to handicap but I do not anticipate the knockout materializing for Su here at 125 pounds. Johnson should do enough to win this one on the judge’s scorecards. He has the edge grappling over Sumaderji too if he does elect to chase takedowns. Charles Johnson by Decision
- Nick: Charles Johnson is a former LFA flyweight champion, but he’s been inconsistent since he was promoted to the UFC. He’s a technically skilled boxer, but his defensive wrestling and grappling has proven to be a massive hole in his overall game. He is 4-4 in the UFC, coming off an impressive KO win over Joshua Van as a moderate underdog. Sumudaerji is primarily a striker. He keeps a wide and open stance, and his outstanding speed and footwork make him a tough target for any opponent on the counter. His power is solid, but his outstanding volume and counter striking ability are his greatest strengths. As dangerous as he is on the feet, his defensive grappling is a major hole in his game and his cardio and durability seem to be more likely weaknesses than they are strengths at this point in his career. Johsnon is primarily a striker, but in this particular match-up I expect he’ll lean on a grappling heavy gameplan. This fight would be competitive on the feet, so there’s a clear path for the favorite here on the mat if he chooses to exploit it. Charles Johnson by Round Two Submission
Kyler Phillips -550 vs Rob Font +400
- Anthony: The co-main event is a bantamweight contest between Rob Font and Kyler Phillips. Font looks ready to go here in search of a much needed victory. Font has lost four of his last five appearances despite facing very elite competition. Phillips meanwhile rides the high of a three fight win streak with a great showing against Pedro Munhoz at UFC 299. It seems that he is building into his prime now and really coming along as a striker. He is good at entering the pocket safely and landing powerful kicks from range. Phillips will be switching stances a lot here and keeping Font to his inside. While Phillips will engage plenty with Font here on the feet he also has the decisive edge grappling. Phillips should be the stronger man while also wielding a jiu jitsu black belt. Font has just 46 percent takedown defense entering this matchup. He has been grounded and completely neutralized in both of his last fights. It is a clear path to victory and likely the game plan Kyler will execute. He trains with a great team at The MMA Lab. Of all the big favorites on this card I am most nervous about seeing Phillips upset or robbed. Font’s striking could get him a wayward scorecard here in a three round fight. Kyler Phillips by Decision
- Nick: Kyler Phillips throws diverse strikes and does a good job using feints to bait his opponents into powerful shots. Additionally, he is very athletic with a good gas tank and scrambling ability. He throws exciting and versatile spinning attacks, but he is also dangerous on the mat as a Carlson Gracie BJJ Brown belt . No matter where his fights go, he seems talented enough to find success against a wide range of opponents. He’s coming off three straight wins, including an impressive decision his last time out over a tough out in Pedro Munhoz. Font is a very skilled boxer with a solid overall game. He’s had a lot of success in the UFC, outclassing opponents on the feet utilizing nearly flawless footwork and a refined traditional boxing style. As talented as he is, Font is coming off back-to-back losses and he has dropped four of his last five fights. The line feels wide here as we’ve seen Font tested against a much higher level of opponent, but Phillips is the rightful favorite. I expect his movement on the feet will make it difficult for Font to close the distance on him here, and even if he does Phillips should have a considerable grappling advantage. Kyler Phillips by Decision
Anthony Hernandez -145 vs Michel Pereira +120
- Anthony: The main event is a middleweight bout between Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira. These men both bring incredible win streaks into this matchup, meeting in a main event for the very first time. Fluffy Hernandez has proven to make a weapon out of his cardio and I think a five round fight certainly suits him well. He will be looking to employ heavy grappling pressure here against a dangerous striker in Pereira. While Pereira is certainly skilled on the ground I would much rather take my chances with him there than striking. Pereira has exploded into first minute finishes in each of his previous three fights. The move up to middleweight has been incredible for Pereira’s power and overall confidence. He is smaller and a bit weaker than Hernandez, something that Pereira will likely feel on the mat. It is rare that I go against Demolidor but this seems like a very tough opponent stylistically. Hernandez can do what he does best here and grind Pereira into the ground. The bout is appropriately lined near pick’em given the volatile nature of all Pereira fights. I would suggest those siding with Pereira bet him via round one finish. Instead I suspect Hernandez gets himself a finish late. Anthony Hernandez by Round Three Submission
- Nick: Anthony Hernandez’s submission ability is certainly his greatest strength, but he’s also competent on the feet with two professional wins via knockout. Hernandez should be able to hang on the feet here, but his clearest path to victory will be to take this fight to the mat as eight of his twelve professional wins have come via submission. He is coming off five consecutive wins under the UFC banner, and he’s quickly establishing himself as a contender to take seriously at middleweight. Michel Pereira is like a video game character in the way he flips around the ring. He’s one of the most entertaining fighters to watch, but his Fight IQ is always in question. He likes to throw ridiculous looking spinning kicks and he’s been known to backflip onto his opponents for pretty much no reason. This can put an unnecessary dent in his gas tank, but he does have strong striking ability and he has shown a solid chin against decent competition. He is now on an impressive eight-fight win streak, and it seems he’s growing more intelligent in the cage from fight to fight. He’s pulled back on the wild antics in favor of a more conservative approach, and as a result he’s as dangerous as he’s ever been. Pereira is going to be dangerous early here, but I expect Hernandez can wear on him and take this fight into the middle/later rounds. His striking defense has come a long way since he’s made his debut, and his durability has been solid. I expect Hernandez to take a few shots early, but he should be defensively sound enough to survive. Once he does, he should be able to secure a win on the mat here. Anthony Hernandez by Round Three Submission
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com