UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya – 8.17.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya. Tonight we’re treated to a great card here in Perth, headlined by this epic middleweight title bout. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 206-123-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 202-127-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-16-2024 at 8pm EST
Early Prelims- Starts 6:30pm EST
Stewart Nicoll -210 vs Jesus Aguilar +170
- Anthony: The card today opens with flyweights Stewart Nicoll and Jesus Aguilar. This is the promotional debut for Nicoll who enters with a perfect record of 8-0. The Australian prospect seems very sound fundamentally and serves as a welcome addition to this weight class. Nicoll’s best work is done when wrestling against his opponents. Flyweight fights will often result in high-pace scrambles but Nicoll tends to do very well staying active and securing top position on the mat. Aguilar has a very good guillotine choke but Nicoll has the far more threatening BJJ. Aguilar has much better boxing than Nicoll but he does not tend to land with any power at all. I expect Nicoll to shoot early here, testing Aguilar’s rather porous takedown defense. Nicoll should cruise to victory in this matchup unless he is to get caught in an early choke. He will spend a majority of this fight grappling on top of Aguilar. Stewart Nicoll by Decision
- Nick: Stewart Nicoll will be making his UFC debut in this spot, entering the promotion with an undefeated 8-0 record at 29 years old. Nicoll has primarily fought for Beatdown Promotions, a relatively small regional promotion out of Australia. Nicoll finds most of his success striking at range and he has a lot of power for a flyweight. Jesus Aguilar is 9-2 professionally, coming off a hard fought decision win over a tough out in Mateus Mendonca. He’s a decent striker and relatively athletic, but his grappling is his greatest strength as six of his ten professional wins have come via submission. Aguilar is 2-1 under the UFC banner and he’s already found more success than many thought he would in entering the promotion. Nicoll looks excellent when you watch him on film, but he’s only fought an extremely low level of opponent. I do expect he can secure a win here, but at this price he’s tough to back with any confidence. Stewart Nicoll by Decision
Song Kenan -195 vs Ricky Glenn +155
- Anthony: Next is a matchup at welterweight between Ricky Glenn and Song Kenan. We will likely get treated to a good back-and-forth here as two solid strikers face off. This is the first time Kenan has faced a southpaw since joining the UFC. Glenn is not a very intimidating presence but he does fight with an effective point style that is hard to gameplan for. He utilizes kicks more frequently than Kenan, giving him a slight edge in terms of scoring. However Kenan is more defensively sound when striking and the better pure boxer. Kenan’s losses in the promotion have come against a much higher level of competition. There is no shame in falling short against the likes of Ian Garry or Kevin Joussett. This matchup with Glenn should be exactly what Kenan needs to get back into the win column. He is the true welterweight fighter and a smaller opponent like Glenn will struggle to hurt him consistently. Kenan won’t fear walking through these shots and finding a home for his boxing combinations. Song Kenan by Round Two KO
- Nick: Song Kenan has Knockout power, but he doesn’t throw much in terms of volume. Nine of his twenty-one wins have come via KO. He has been more aggressive across his last few fights, but he’s shown mixed results. He scored an impressive win over Relando Bedoya back in August of 2023, but more recently he was outclassed by Kevin Jousset in December. When he’s at his best, he moves in and out of range well as he circles away from the power of his opponents. He sometimes struggles to close distance against lengthy strikers, but he’s more than willing to eat a shot to land one of his own. Ricky Glenn has underrated power in his strikes, with eleven of his twenty-two professional wins coming by way of KO. He is most recently coming off brutal KO losses to Drew Dober and Christos Giagos, falling to 1-3-1 across his last five fights. Glenn has been fighting professionally since 2006, so at 35-years old it’s safe to expect his career may be winding to a close. In his prime, Glenn could have a chance to pull off the upset here. That being said, I do see Song Kenan as the rightful favorite. Glenn is not a natural welterweight, and his durability is questionable at best. Song Kenan by Round Two KO
Tom Nolan -1200 vs Alex Reyes +750
- Anthony: This is a contest at lightweight between Tom Nolan and Alex Reyes. It seems the promotion is looking to build up Nolan here who’s just 24 and training out of Queensland, Australia. While Nolan still has a lot of developing left to do, he’s a powerful striker that uses every inch of his 6’3” frame. He is of course bigger than Reyes but also thirteen years younger. There should be an evident speed advantage for Nolan in this matchup. Reyes’ only appearance since 2017 came against Charlie Campbell last year. That fight saw Reyes finished by knockout in the very first round. In fact, Reyes is 0-2 in the UFC with less than one round of total cage time. I do not expect Reyes to hold up for long with the power strikes of Nolan constantly landing. Watch for Nolan to connect with big knees and elbows here as he gives Reyes’ hands little to no respect. This should be an easy win for Nolan and mark the last appearance for Reyes before retirement. I’d suggest betting Nolan’s Round One props instead of playing him at this wide moneyline. Tom Nolan by Round One KO
- Nick: Tom Nolan is 7-1 professionally, coming off an impressive KO win over Victor Martinez. He’s 24-years old, fighting out of Queensland, Australia. He’s an aggressive striker with solid BJJ, but he certainly seems to favor fighting on the feet. Five of his seven professional wins have come via KO. Alex Reyes has only fought once since September of 2017, falling via KO to Charlie Campbell back in September of 2023. He’s 13-4 professionally, but his general inactivity makes it difficult to get a read on him coming into this match-up. At his best, Reyes is a well-rounded and potent finisher with nine wins coming via KO and four via Submission. Reyes has never won a fight via decision. Nolan shouldn’t be such a massive favorite against anyone, but Reyes seems like he hardly belongs on the roster. Nolan is going to be the bigger fighter here, and he’s going to have a considerable power advantage on the feet. The line feels wide given his questionable durability, but I do expect he can find the finish as the favorite. Tom Nolan by Round One KO
Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Jack Jenkins -800 vs Herbert Burns +550
- Anthony: The preliminary card starts with featherweights Jack Jenkins and Herbert Burns. Jenkins was originally booked to face Gavin Tucker here, but instead he drew into an easier opponent in Herbert Burns. Similar to Tucker, Burns is a grappler that does his best work when fights hit the ground. It will be imperative for Burns to secure an early takedown in this fight or he will otherwise be lit up by Jenkins’ striking. While I have not been too impressed by Jenkins he does have very high-level kickboxing. He is much more technically skilled than Burns and on the feet this matchup should be one-sided. Burn’s last win came more than four years ago. He is not very durable and struggles to stay composed when he is getting hit. Burns has been finished in round two of each of his previous three octagon appearances. Jenkins should also be able to stop him inside the fight’s first ten minutes. Jenkins has the higher output and far more reliable cardio. Jack Jenkins by Round Two KO
- Nick: Jenkins is well-rounded and athletic with decent striking fundamentals, explosive power, and solid overall wrestling ability. He’s capable of weaponizing his cardio and taking fights over late, but we really haven’t seen him tested extensively against top level competition. He’s coming off a somewhat fluky loss to Chepe Mariscal in which he dislocated his elbow. He’s still making improvements in all facets of his game, but it’s tough to gauge his upside until we see him fighting more frequently. Jenkins’ greatest attack is his leg kick, which I fully expect he’ll try to rely on here against a somewhat slow moving Burns. Herbert Burns is the younger brother of welterweight contentender Gilbert Burns. He’s primarily a grappler as an advanced BJJ black belt with eight of his eleven professional wins coming via submission. He is coming off three straight losses for the first time in his career, and there’s a good chance he’ll be cut from the promotion if he can’t secure a win in this spot. Burns’ only chance here will be to take this fight to the mat and find an early submission, but if he can’t it seems very likely his cardio will start to fade as Jenkins takes over. Jenkins should dominate as long as he survives early. Jack Jenkins by Round Two KO
Luana Santos -150 vs Casey O’Neill +125
- Anthony: This is a good matchup at women’s flyweight between Luana Santos and Casey O’Neill. O’Neill is 26 years old, coming off of consecutive losses after winning her first four UFC fights. Santos is now in the same position that O’Neill was, garnering a lot of attention after making easy work of her most recent opponents. The 24 year old is now 8-1 with a tidy streak of five straight wins. Santos’ most recent victory came over Mariya Agapova just over one month ago. I am a fan of her activity and the aggressive pace where she tends to engage opponents. Santos hits a little bit harder than O’Neill but this is a matchup that will be decided in the grappling exchanges. Santos has excellent offensive jiu jitsu but O’Neill often relies on her wrestling and grappling confidence when fights hit the mat. I could see her finding success on top of Santos, but over the course of fifteen minutes I am sure the Brazilian will find a way off of her back. Santos is the more likely of these two women to find a finish. At these odds I would not recommend betting Santos but I do consider her the rightful favorite. Luana Santos by Decision
- Nick: Luana Santos is 8-1 professionally and 3-0 in the UFC. While her skills are still far from refined, she is much more polished as a fighter than one might expect given the lack of depth to her resume. Her strikes are far from powerful, but she continues to show technical improvements in that facet of her game. She’s primarily a grappler with three of her seven professional wins coming via submission. Casey O’Neill has trained at excellent camps in Tiger Muay Thai, 10th Planet BJJ, and most recently Xtreme Couture. She’s 9-2 professionally, coming off back to back losses for the first time in her young career. O’Neill’s striking is certainly far from refined, but she continues to show improvements in that facet of her game. Her most applaudable asset is her powerful wrestling base and her overall strength at 125 pounds. There is a chance O’Neill has made major improvements in her time away from the cage, but I see Santos as the rightful favorite as she’s been the more active fighter and she continues to show massive improvements. Luana Santos by Decision
Josh Culibao -140 vs Ricardo Ramos +115
- Anthony: Next is a matchup at featherweight between Ricardo Ramos and Joshua Culibao. This is one of the closer fights on the card to try to handicap. Both men are coming off back-to-back losses in their most recent showings. Ramos was submitted in the first round of both previous bouts. He is still on the right side of age thirty but Ramos is beginning to look slower and less involved. I rate him as the slightly more effective striker than Culibao, landing the more frequent and precise shots. Culibao has better pure boxing than Ramos but he needs to throw more in combination, rather than trying to match Ramos strike for strike. He has proven to be the more durable fighter and I’d favor him over Ramos the later that this fight goes. Both men are live to win via submission as Ramos has problems exposing his neck. He also has better pure grappling than Culibao and seven professional wins by submission. Odds suggest this one does go the distance and for that reason I am picking Culibao to win Josh Culibao by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Josh Culibao is fairly well-rounded, but he is most content to stand and trade on the feet. He has shown excellent durability and a strong overall fight IQ. It seems he always makes correct decisions regardless of whether he’s winning or losing a fight. He’s likely going to be the more active fighter in this match-up, and he’s also going to have a cardio advantage. That being said, he’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career so there’s a lot of pressure on him coming into this match-up. Ricardo Ramos is a dynamic striker who throws a wide-range of attacks. He has underrated power, but he doesn’t throw extended combinations and he has trouble putting volume on opponents. As a result, we often see him fall behind on the scorecards even when he’s causing a lot of damage. He throws wild kicks, which are mostly effective, but they sometimes leave him vulnerable to dangerous countershots. He’s a decent grappler, but mostly prefers to stand and strike at range. Similarly to Culibao, he’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. This is a tough fight to call given the general inconsistencies of both fighters. I slightly prefer Culibao as I expect he’ll have a cardio and durability advantage here. Josh Culibao by Round Two KO
Junior Tafa -130 vs Valter Walker +110
- Anthony: The preliminary card ends with heavyweights Valter Walker and Junior Tafa. We should be in for a fun clash of styles here as these big boys collide. Tafa is a native of New Zealand with serious power in his hands. Tafa does very well boxing in close and unloading combinations on his opponents. He has much quicker hands when compared to Walker. While Tafa landing a knockout is entirely likely, that seems to be his only path to victory. We have yet to see him excel against any formidable opponents. Walker has the more well-rounded skill set and confidence when his fights hit the mat. Sure the UFC debut for Walker did not go as planned, but I am expecting an improved version of the Brazilian here today. Walker not only does well converting his attempted takedowns but he is also capable of controlling opponents along the octagon side. Tafa has fought similar matchups before, ceding more than twelve minutes of control to Mohammed Usman before losing that bout by decision. I’d think a big and strong heavyweight like Walker will find a way to get Tafa off of his feet. It is a tough fight to handicap but I’ll take my chances betting on the underdog. Valter Waker by Decision
- Nick: Valter Walker is the younger brother of popular light heavyweight and roster main-stay, Johnny Walker. He is 11-1 professionally, most recently falling in his UFC debut to a tough out in Lukasz Brzeski. Walker has a massive frame and an 81” reach, but he is primarily a grappler. He finds most of his success working his opponents to the mat and finishing them via ground-and-pound. At 26-years old he’s young for the division, and there’s no denying he hasn’t really been tested against competition on the level of his opponent in this match-up. He struggled in his debut, fighting tentatively and tiring quickly as he struggled to get anything going offensively. Junior Tafa had a lot of hype coming into the promotion, but he has been mostly a disappointment so far. He has knockout power, but his cardio is suspect and he hasn’t really shown technical boxing ability on the level of other up-and-comers in this division. His defensive grappling has been a major hole in his game, and there is a good chance that plays a major factor for him here in this match-up. This is a low level match-up and thus a low confidence play, but I do see value in Walker as the much better grappler in this matchup. Tafa should KO him easily if he keeps this fight standing, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to here. Valter Walker by Round Three KO
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Carlos Prates -360 vs Li Jingliang +280
- Anthony: The main card opens with a great welterweight scrap as Li Jingliang returns to face Carlos Prates. It has been more than two years since The Leech last fought, dealing with injuries. He is a very strong orthodox boxer with a wealth of experience in the UFC. Jingliang is a real gatekeeper for this division and Prates seems like a superstar that should look good against him. Jingliang will oblige Prates on the feet as we are treated to a compelling kickboxing match. Li has real power in his hands but compared to Prates his weapons are limited. Prates is the much faster fighter with better kicks and attacks from range. I really like what Prates can do with his knees and in the clinch against his opponents. I expect Jingliang to struggle overcoming a six-inch advantage in reach. Prates should be able to set up a lot of strikes and land a much more consistent offense than Jingliang. It would not surprise me to see a tough guy like Li take Prates to a decision, but it would surprise me to see him earn this win. Jingliang is only 3-4 in the UFC when fights do go to the judge’s scorecards. Carlos Prates by Decision
- Nick: Carlos Prates is 30-years old with a 18-6 professional record. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2019 and he’s fought against a decent level of competition even before he made it to the UFC debut. He’s coming off impressive KO wins over Charles Radke and Trevin Giles. He starts slow in most of his fights, but he’s extremely accurate and generally does a good job landing for timely KOs. Prates fights very loosely in his approach. He throws a lot of kicks, and his long frame can make it difficult for opponents to take him down. His striking defense seems solid, but he does move straight back at times which can leave him open to be damaged in exchanges. When he’s at his best he works well behind his jab. He fights at a torrid pace and his cardio and durability both seem quality as well. Li Jingliang is a powerful striker with a fun aggressive style. He is extremely dangerous offensively, but we’ve seen him get wreckless at times in exchanges. He struggles against wrestlers, but he’s always live for a KO as his power is amongst the most devastating in the division. He has been out of action since September of 2022, recently dealing with a spinal injury. The line is getting out of hand, but I do expect Prates to secure the win in this match-up. Jingliang is dangerous, but coming off a long layoff and major injury he’s tough to back with any confidence. Carlos Prates by Decision
Jairzinho Rozenstruik -250 vs Tai Tuivasa +195
- Anthony: This is a great matchup at heavyweight as Tai Tuivasa will face Jairzinho Rozenstruik. I am happy to see Tuivasa get a favorable matchup here after enduring some tough losses as of late. The past two fights saw Tuivasa taken down and submitted quite easily. I seriously doubt either man will shoot in this striker’s delight, great news for both men. Rozenstruik is a highly credentialed kickboxer with elite hand speed. He has ended 64 professional kickboxing matches by knockout. Technically he is more skilled than Tuivasa but anything can happen at heavyweight. Tuivasa has legit boxing with several tight combinations, but it will take a big power shot landing for him to win this bout. Rozenstruik will be the much more consistent fighter over the course of three rounds. I trust Rozenstruik to eat a few big shots from Tai while easily doubling or tripling up his early offensive volume. He uses kicks to much greater effect and does better avoiding big strikes compared to Tuivasa. Bigi Boi seems like a solid pick but I am not confident betting him at -250. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Two KO
- Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match-up here that is very likely to end inside the distance. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a decorated kickboxer who is most content fighting on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown on several occasions that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. While he throws well off his back foot, he sometimes lets fights get away from him as he never pushes much of a pace. He throws powerful high kicks on occasion, but he uses low kicks frequently to keep his opponents at range. Tai Tuivasa’s clearest path to victory is always via the knockout punch. He’s coming off four straight losses for the first time in his career, but he’s still a fan favorite due to his fun personality and kill-or-be-killed style in the cage. Tuivasa continues to show improvement in all facets of his game, but his power is what keeps him in fights. He’s likely going to be outclassed by his opponent here, which makes it difficult to back him as an underdog. I expect Rozenstruik to manage the distance well here until he finds a timely finish. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Two KO
Mateusz Gamrot -360 vs Dan Hooker +280
- Anthony: This is a lightweight matchup between Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot. It is a booking made on relatively short notice with Hooker eagerly preparing for this card regardless of his opponent. However, Gamrot is the worst stylistic matchup for Dan of any top fifteen lightweight. Gamrot averaging 1.76 takedowns landed per round and will certainly wrestle Hooker to the mat here very early. From the southpaw stance, Gamrot is able to explode into his single leg entries and does a very good job chaining his shots. I was very impressed watching Gamrot land eleven takedowns against Rafael Dos Anjos. Hooker has a great sprawl and 80 percent takedown defense, but some opponents have no trouble slicing through him. Gamrot is physically very strong for weighing in at 155 pounds. I’d love to pick Hooker here but my expectation is we see him blanketed for the whole fight. Gamrot is a jiu jitsu black belt with a strong series of submissions from side control. Not much else will be hurting Hooker and I expect him to still be dangerous and motivated come round number three. Gamrot will need to pace himself carefully but this on paper seems like an easy matchup for him. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision
- Nick: Mateusz Gamrot is an excellent chain grappler with a wide range of effective takedown entries. He does an excellent job getting low in pursuit of single legs. He has ridiculous cardio, a solid chin, and excellent instincts both scrambling and in striking exchanges. While he doesn’t really have true one-punch knockout power, he lands meaningful strikes that force his opponents to respect him no matter where the fight goes. Dan Hooker is an extremely talented kickboxer. He has powerful leg kicks that he combines with high volume and speed to wear on his opponents. He’s a master of angles and does a great job finding openings for big elbows, knees and punches. He comes into this match-up off back-to-back wins, but it is notable he’s been out of action since July of 2023. While I do see Gamrot as the rightful favorite in this matchup, the price has gotten absolutely ridiculous. I’m tempted to make a play on the underdog out of principle, but as far as a straight fight pick goes I do see Gamrot edging it out. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision
Steve Erceg -185 vs Kai Kara-France +150
- Anthony: The co-main event should be a great brawl between Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg. Both men are coming off of main event bookings and certainly ready for a hard three rounds of action. Kara-France came up short in his last fight against Amir Albazi, although I believe the judges got that one wrong. His resume doesn’t really blow Erceg out of the water but he has shared the cage with far better competition. Kara-France is sneaky, connecting with power at this weight class and relentlessly pressing while on the attack. His kickboxing is very precise and I think Kai will close the distance here to find a home for shots both high and low. Erceg benefits from the reach advantage in this spot and his size could be the reason for these odds. With his tight boxing, it is expected that Kara-France does get punished from Erceg fighting on the outside. He will be looking to establish his jab early and prevent Kara-France from battering his legs without penalty. Neither seems likely to take this fight to the mat although Erceg likely holds a slight edge in that realm too. I feel Kara-France would outscore Erceg in a fight that goes to the scorecards but a decision would likely be razor close either way. I consider Kara-France a value bet here at plus money. Kai Kara-France by Decision
- Nick: Steve Erceg is 12-2 professionally, with six of those wins coming via submission. Erceg comes into this fight off a narrow decision loss in a title fight to Alexandre Pantoja, but prior to that he was on an eleven-fight win streak. Erceg’s striking continues to improve. He has underrated power and he’s technically sound everywhere. He has excellent cardio, and he’s capable of putting out a lot of volume on his feet. He certainly prefers to grapple, but he’s shown a well-rounded game and his cardio and durability have proven to be strengths at this level. Kai Kara-France, out of City Kickboxing, is a talented and dangerous striker. He has a powerful overhand right and does a good job making sure that the strikes he throws are meaningful. The one real knock on him is that he tends to find himself in tough positions as he takes his foot off the gas at inopportune times. He’s coming off a narrow decision loss to a tough out in Amir Albazi, but he has been out of action since that fight back in June of 2023. The line does feel wide here as this fight should be competitive from start to finish. That being said, I do see Erceg as the rightful favorite. He’s going to be the bigger fighter here, and I expect he can lean on his grappling if he’s not getting the best of Kara-France in striking exchanges. Steve Erceg by Decision
Dricus Du Plessis -110 vs Israel Adesanya -110
- Anthony: The main event decides the world middleweight championship as Dricus Du Plessis will face Israel Adesanya. This is the 12th consecutive appearance in a title fight for Adesanya. He has not competed since UFC 293 and this mere 11-month hiatus marks Adesanya’s longest ever gap between fights. Time away to heal and gain strength will have certainly helped the former two-time champion. His striking is unmatched, fighting from both stances seamlessly and using feints to overwhelm his opponent from the opening bell. Adesanya does well utilizing all weapons available to him and specifically blasting out kicks with an incredible rate of accuracy. This bout against Du Plessis should yield a lot of connections on the lower leg as well as plenty of attempts at kicking Dricus’ body. I expect Adesanya to land a lot of counters here as Du Plessis often finds himself violently out of position. The aggressive, blitzing nature of Du Plessis can cost him as much as it plays to his benefit. He will struggle to catch Adesanya with the same hooks that ended up stopping Whittaker. We will see Du Plessis eat numerous clean counters if he does not fight with drastic changes to his style today. He has already taken significant damage facing lower-level strikers than this. The best chance for Dricus to win this matchup would be by utilizing his grappling. He has scored a lot of takdowns since joining the UFC although Adesanya has proven rather sturdy at defending shots. The champion does average one takedown per round and likely does score on at least one shot here. Ultimately though this will be a striking match and Du Plessis is too sloppy to get by Adesanya. I expect this night to be Adesanya’s as the only fighter to ever earn gold three different times at middleweight. This is a confident pick for me getting near even money on the much better fighter. And New. Israel Adesanya by Decision
- Nick: Although inactive lately, Israel Adesanya has established himself as a star in the sport. In most of his fights, we see Adesanya pick his opponents apart at range on the feet. He’s a gifted kickboxer with outstanding accuracy. He doesn’t carry massive power, but he relies on timely combinations to overwhelm his opponents and when he does he’s capable of finishing a fight inside the distance. Adesanya does an excellent job throwing feints to bait his opponents into counters. He moves fluidly on his feet. He has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. Adesanya hasn’t fought since he dropped the UFC Middleweight Championship via decision to Sean Strickland back in September of 2023. Many felt Adesanya looked slower than usual in that fight, but there’s no denying Strickland made things difficult for him with frequent pressure and volume while forcing Adesanya to fight off his back foot. UFC Middleweight Champion, Dricus Du Plessis, throws a ton of volume on the feet. He has a lot of power in all of his limbs, but he’s also competent on the mat with ten professional wins coming via submission. As dangerous as Du Plessis is, he’s very awkward in his movements and his footwork sometimes leaves him in positions to be countered. His fight IQ is questionable at best and while his cardio does seem decent, he often slows down and looks labored at random times throughout his fights. In spite of his flaws, Du Plessis is coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker. He’s extremely strong and explosive for a middleweight and he’s shown excellent durability on more than one occasion. This is a tough fight to call given Adesanya’s recent inconsistencies, but if he shows up at his best I do expect he’ll outclass Du Plessis on the feet here. Du Plessis will be live for the upset if he can get his grappling going both early and often, but Adesanya has made a career of maintaining excellent takedown defense. And New. Israel Adesanya by Decision
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com