UFC Louisville: Cannonier vs Imavov – 6.8.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Louisville: Cannonier vs Imavov. Live action will continue in front of fans tonight with a solid fight card here in Louisville Kentucky. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 142-80-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 143-79-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-7-2024 at 11pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST
Rayanne dos Santos -360 vs Puja Tomar +280
- Anthony: The card opens with a women’s strawweight matchup between Rayanne dos Santos and Puja Tomar. There is some debate to be had regarding the merit of having these two athletes on the UFC roster. I think dos Santos is deserving of her contract given the good showings we have seen out of her. She has fought very skilled competition and while dos Santos may not be the most technically sound, her advantage comes in her strength and experience fighting through various positions. I expect to see her hold a decisive edge grappling here against Tomar. While Puja Tomar is going to be competitive on the feet here she will be undersized against most other strawweights. Tomar’s boxing is okay from the southpaw stance but she struggles to land all her shots due to rather limited reach. Her wushu techniques will not work to great effect here facing Rayanne. Tomar has also fought quality competition in One FC but her tenure there saw more losses than wins. I will be skeptical of Tomar’s ceiling moving forward if she cannot beat the likes of dos Santos in her debut. Rayanne dos Santos by Decision
- Nick: Rayanne dos Santos is a former Invicta FC Atomweight Champion. She is 15-6 professionally, and relatively well-rounded as a 29-year old up-and-comer. She’s coming off a hard fought loss in her UFC debut, where she fell via split decision to a tough out in Talita Alencar. She has excellent cardio and fights at a consistent pace, generally keeping pressure on her opponents. Her striking is solid, but as a former atomweight she doesn’t always cause much damage when she lands. She’s a competent grappler with decent BJJ offensively, but lately it seems she prefers to fight at striking range. Puja Tomar will be making her UFC debut here, fighting out of Muzaffarnagar, India. She is 8-4 professionally, and formally spent time fighting for a respectable promotion in ONE Championship. Six of her professional wins have come via KO. She has decent BJJ offensively, but she seems relatively easy to takedown and control on the mat. It’s been said she has a wrestling background, but it does not seem to have translated well for her in MMA. This is a relatively low level match-up and thus, a tough fight to call. I’ll side with dos Santos here under the assumption she’ll lean on her grappling. Rayanne dos Santos by Decision
Taylor Lapilus -280 vs Cody Stamann +220
- Anthony: Next is a good fight at bantamweight between Cody Stamann and Taylor Lapilus. In his last fight we saw Lapilus have his grappling tested against the likes of Farid Basharat. Lapilus defended 11 of 16 takedowns in that bout but ceded position and nearly seven minutes of total control time. Basharat was victorious and improved to a perfect 12-0. Stamann will also be looking to implement his offensive wrestling here against Taylor Lapilus. The southpaw has much better striking than Stamann and a nine-inch advantage in reach. Lapilus does very well landing shots from distance and keeps alert at all times when it comes to his defense. The opportunities for Stamann to connect striking will be few and far between here against Lapilus. I am not willing to bet the underdog in this spot if he will be desperately needing takedowns in order to win. The advantage in size should not only help Lapilus striking but also when it comes to defending takedown attempts. He should win this fight on the judge’s scorecards. Taylor Lapilus by Decision
- Nick: Taylor Lapilus is a dynamic striker who throws as many kicks as he does punches. He’s effective at range and in the clinch. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight moving backwards. His defensive grappling isn’t great, but continues to improve. He has excellent cardio and he’s shown he can carry his power into later rounds. Cody Stamman is well rounded, but his greatest strengths are his powerful wrestling base and excellent takedown ability. He’s decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via controlling position against inferior grapplers. He’s fought the better level of competition compared to his opponent in this match-up, but Lapilus has a ridiculous nine-inch reach advantage. This is an extremely binary match-up with Lapilus being the far better striker and Stamann being the much better grappler. Whoever can get their gameplan going is going to look like a considerable favorite. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take a small shot on Stamann as the underdog here. Lapilus is a quality striker, but I’m not confident he has enough power to keep Stamann from closing the distance on him here. Cody Stamann by Decision
Eduarda Moura -200 vs Denise Gomes +160
- Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s strawweight between Denise Gomes and the undefeated Eduarda Moura. At 10-0, Moura seems like a solid prospect with one win already in the UFC. The Brazilian is largely touted for her grappling skills and prowess when it comes to finishing her fights. Moura is the bigger fighter in this bout and also came in heavy during yesterday’s weigh-ins. While I do not fault Moura for a half pound miss it is concerning that she was heavy in her previous appearance too. I think while Gomes has the skills to hang with Moura she will struggle to fight out of the grappling exchanges due to Moura’s strength. Gomes needs to land a big punch in order to have a chance in this fight. Moura’s top pressure and excellent jiu jitsu give her a decisive edge when this fight does hit the mat. Eduarda Moura by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Eduarda Moura is 10-0 professionally, and it seems she is rounding into her athletic prime at 30-years old. She is relatively well-rounded with four wins via KO and five via submission. She’s big for the division and competent everywhere, but she has only been fighting professionally since March of 2022. Gomes fights aggressively, primarily as a striker, but she is far from technically refined. While effective on the offensive end, her mediocre footwork and head movement often leaves her in compromising positions defensively. She is coming off a tough decision loss to a high-level opponent in Angela Hill. She’s still making major improvements to all facets of her game as she’s just 24-years old, and she certainly represents a step up for Moura here in this match-up. This is a relatively low level match-up and a tough fight to call, but I’ll side with Gomes here. She’s going to need to mostly keep this fight standing, but I expect her power and experience should help carry her to a win. Denise Gomes by Decision
Daniel Marcos -130 vs John Castaneda +110
- Anthony: Next is a bantamweight matchup between John Castaneda and the undefeated Daniel Marcos. I am becoming a fan of Marcos as he continues to string together very impressive UFC wins. His last appearance was ruled a no contest due to a groin strike but Marcos was way ahead of Aoriqileng. The power that Marcos has at bantamweight makes opponents generally very hesitant to recklessly engage. Marcos is not afraid to throw with all his power whether that be with his hands or with his lower half. Castaneda has very fundamentally sound boxing and presents a good dance partner for this bout. I certainly feel that Castaneda has shown more holes in terms of his defense when compared to Marcos. Castaneda also has a solid wrestling pedigree and the advantage over Marcos in terms of his grappling. While he has been converting takedowns as of late these wins are not coming over very good competition. Marcos is the side I prefer here getting almost even odds. Castaneda will struggle to keep up with Soncora when it comes to total strikes landed. Daniel Marcos by Decision
- Nick: Castenada does a good job switching stances. He’s a technical striker that manages distance well. He’s a competent grappler, but he’s certainly most content to stand and exchange on the feet. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Kyung Ho Kang and Muin Gafurov, and he is now a respectable 5-2 in the UFC. Daniel Marcos is 15-0 professionally, and he does a good job throwing lengthy combinations. He’s a decent grappler, but on the mat he’s most content to try to work his way back to his feet (rather than try to advance position.) Eight of his professional wins have come via KO, and while he’s getting a relatively late start to his UFC career as he is 31-years old, it seems he’s still making major improvements from fight to fight. This should be a competitive fight from start to finish. Marcos is the better technical striker, but Castaneda should have a power advantage. Castaneda should be the better grappler here, but Marcos has the better cardio and durability. This is another low confidence play, but I slightly prefer Castenada here. He’s the more well rounded fighter in this match-up and Marcos seems a bit overrated by the market. John Castaneda by Decision
Andrea Lee -150 vs Montana De La Rosa +125
- Anthony: This is a women’s flyweight bout between Montana De La Rosa and Andrea Lee. It is a rematch of a 2019 fight that saw Lee win every round rather convincingly. This seems like the last winnable fight in Lee’s career. She has lost in four straight showings and appears to be a less effective fighter than in her earlier promotional tenure. Lee has been outstruck in three straight fights after a career largely built on high volume striking. The fortunate news for Lee is that she still has the skills to pick apart the likes of De La Rosa. A wrestler like Montana will be looking to score takedowns and engage with Lee where she has a better chance. Lee has some solid jiu jitsu but she is likely to lose her if it is a bout spent largely on her back. I think while De La Rosa will pursue takedowns in this spot she will not always be successful and I trust Lee to at least make her way back standing before each round ends. Lee is nothing else is always a brawler and ready to fight hard for your money. I will trust her in this spot although it is not a very confident play. Andrea Lee by Decision
- Nick: Andrea Lee is athletic with excellent cardio. She’s well-rounded offensively with dangerous kickboxing, a solid judo base and dangerous BJJ. As talented as she is, she’s coming off four straight losses for the first time in her career and she could be headed for retirement if she can’t record a win in this spot. Montana de la Rosa is a well-rounded fighter who has shown serious improvements since making her debut. That being said, there’s really nothing about her game that suggests she’s ever going to contend for a title. She has above average wrestling ability and she thrives against inferior grapplers. However, her striking is still far from technical and she takes a lot of damage in most of her fights. This is another low confidence play, but I slightly prefer Lee here. I expect her to mostly keep this fight on the feet where she should land the more damaging strikes. Andrea Lee by Decision
Brad Katona -700 vs Jesse Butler +500
- Anthony: This will be a bantamweight matchup with Jesse Butler set to face Brad Katona. Butler took a short notice fight against Jim Miller to earn his way onto the UFC roster. While Butler was only able to survive 23 seconds in that matchup I expect we see a better showing now with a full fight camp behind him. Butler is at his proper weight class and able to more effectively grapple now against a man that is his size. I think while Butler could find some early success in this bout it is hard to see his skills matching up with Katona’s. The last appearance for Katona was a decision loss but he is consistent in terms of his gameplan, mixing grappling and striking well and also pacing with his opponents. Katona is not known for his finishing ability but he does well breaking down the men across from him and proving himself a touch better trained. It will be evident Katona is faster than Butler and also much more accurate with his strikes. This should be an easy win for Katona and I could even see a late finish materializing for him. Katona only has one win by stoppage in the previous six years. Brad Katona by Decision
- Nick: Katona is a well-rounded fighter who is known for his cerebral fighting style and his extremely high Fight IQ. He does an excellent job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents. He studies his opponents extensively, but in most of his fights we see him lean on a grappling heavy game plan to grind out decisions. The one knock on him is he can be overly hesitant at times as he tends to fight down to the level of his opponent. Jesse Butler 32-years old and 12-5 professionally. He was on a five fight winning streak on the regional scene before he was brutally KO’d against Jim Miller in his UFC debut. Butler is relatively well-rounded, but he doesn’t have any stand out skill. The line feels wide here given Katona’s style and Butler’s likely size advantage, but he is certainly a rightful favorite. Katona should outclass his opponent here by a considerable margin. Brad Katona by Round Three Submission
Carlos Prates -210 vs Charles Radtke +170
- Anthony: This is a fight at welterweight between Carlos Prates and Charles Radtke. Prates is a great entry into the division and a very formidable power threat. Not only is Prates huge for 170 pounds but he is a very skilled boxer and effective when striking out of either stance. I think he is going to struggle against upper echelon strikers but someone like Radtke won’t be an issue for Prates to compete with. Radtke will want to grapple if he can here, or at least close distance on Prates where he will have a better chance at finding success. Radtke held on for dear life in a fight against Blood Diamond and was awarded the win for effectively controlling that bout. I worry that Radtke could wet blanket Prates tonight, but otherwise this should be an easy knockout play. Prates will control distance here will his jab and unlock more combinations as this fight plays out. Radtke can sometimes approach opponents a bit recklessly and I have a feeling he walks into something big tonight. Carlos Prates by Round One KO
- Nick: Carlos Prates is 30-years old with a 17-6 professional record. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2019, and he’s fought a decent level of competition even before he made it to the UFC debut. He’s coming off an impressive KO win over Trevin Giles. He started slow in that fight, but eventually found the fight-ending shot via straight left in the third round. Prates fights very loosely in his approach. He throws a lot of kicks, and his long frame can make it difficult for opponents to take him down. His striking defense seems solid, but he does move straight back at times which can leave him open to be damaged in exchanges. When he’s at his best he works well behind his jab. He fights at a torrid pace and his cardio and durability both seem quality as well. Charles Radtke is a relatively well-rounded fighter who does a good job honing in on the weaknesses of his opponents. He is 9-3 professionally, coming off back-to-back UFC wins over Gilbert Urbina and Blood Diamond. A former CFFC Welterweight Champion, Radtke really hasn’t been tested against a high level of opponent and there is no denying he is breaking into the promotion somewhat late in his career. He’s going to be the better grappler in this match-up, but I expect he’ll have trouble closing distance and keeping Prates down if he does. The line is a bit wide, but Prates is the pick. Carlos Prates by Round Two KO
Ludovit Klein -130 vs Thiago Moises +110
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a lightweight matchup between Ludovit Klein and Thiago Moises. This is one of the card’s most compelling scraps with near even odds and very good talent on display. Moises has looked much improved in recent showings, particularly in regard to his striking. Moises is more comfortable now when it comes to his kickboxing. He is at his best when moving forward, pressuring opponents and using striking to find takedown attempts. Klein has proven very difficult to ground thus far in the UFC but Moises has a decisive advantage over Klein when this bout does hit the canvas. Rarely would I bet against 83 percent takedown defense but I think Moises will be very quick to hunt for position on Klein very early. I am a big fan of Klein and I think most lightweights also respect him for his precision striking and highlight reel KOs. Moises would be very foolish to engage long with Klein on the feet. He will get in on Klein’s leg quickly as these two strike in the opposite stance. I expect Moises to use his jiu jitsu black belt and earn a win by submission here today. Thiago Moises by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Ludovit Klein is well-rounded and continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He has a solid grappling base, and the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponent’s into powerful shots, and his left high kick is as dangerous as any singular strike in the division. He continues to show improvement in his grappling ability, but there is no denying he’s most content to stand and exchange on the feet. Thaigo Moises is a jiu jitsu specialist. He has a black belt under Paulo Streckert and boasts eight professional victories by submission. He was formally ranked as a lightweight, with notable wins over Bobby Green, Michael Johnson, and Alexander Hernandez. He had a better performance against the Champion Islam Makhachev than most of Makhachev’s opponents. His striking is fairly predictable, but he’s a talented grappler who seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. Klein will be live to score a KO here, but if he doesn’t I expect Moises can control him on the mat for the better part of fifteen minutes. It’s risky, but I like the value of the underdog here. Thiago Moises by Round Three Submission
Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Miguel Baeza -200 vs Punahele Soriano +160
- Anthony: The main card begins at welterweight with Miguel Baeza set to face Punahele Soriano. Baeza has been away from action for more than two years and I hope that time off serves him well. The three prior fights for Baeza were wars with his last two seeing him finished via knockout. Soriano is a dangerous boxer and Baeza will need to mind the tremendous power coming at him from the southpaw stance. Soriano struggled with his cardio at middleweight and I do not expect those issues will be corrected as he sheds an extra fifteen pounds. His power will still be there but Baeza is the more technically sound striker and better suited for the latter half of this fight. I think Baeza will land more diverse attacks than Soriano and keep this fight largely at the range he wants it. The momentum will shift quickly into Baeza’s favor if he can survive round one. I hope to see an increase in Baeza’s volume although he does average a healthy rate of 4.88 significant strikes landed per minute. He also has a higher rate of accuracy when compared to Soriano. Miguel Baeza by Round Two KO
- Nick: These are two extremely aggressive strikers and they’ve both shown an ability to end a fight with a single punch. Baeza likes to throw frequent leg-kicks. He uses them to both damage his opponents and keep them at range. Baeza has been out of action since 2022, following three consecutive losses. Baeza is dynamic offensively, but he absorbs nearly five significant strikes per minute. He’s going to need to be careful not to get caught here as Soriano has devastating power when he can land. Punahele Soriano’s greatest strength is his powerful left hand. Additionally, for someone lacking significant professional experience he looks fairly polished in exchanges. While Soriano is certainly most dangerous on the feet, he is an underrated grappler with a solid Judo base. He was an all-American wrestler in high school, but he certainly seems more inclined to stand and trade at the UFC level. Soriano is moving down a weight class here, after dropping back to back fights up at middleweight. Baeza is the better technical fighter in this match-up, but his durability could be costly against a power puncher like Soriano. This is a low confidence play, but I expect the favorite can stay safe enough here to get back in the win column. Miguel Baeza by Decision
Julian Marquez -140 vs Zach Reese +115
- Anthony: This should be a fun fight at middleweight between Zach Reese and Julian Marquez. Reese has yet to finish a full round of action since becoming a professional. He is a very volatile fighter that is quick to engage with opponents. Reese strikes well from both stances and has excellent grappling when he often elects to drag opponents to the mat. Marquez is normally very comfortable while grappling. I would be surprised to see him find an early submission but I do think Marquez can make things interesting rolling with Reese. Marquez is also coming off consecutive losses by knockout. Marquez has the advantage of power over Reese but he is not quite as willing to unload with combinations. I also figure he will struggle to close the distance on Reese who has a five-inch edge in reach. This will be a car crash that is decided quickly and while I see why Marquez is a viable selection I prefer Reese at the better odds. Reese continues to train and improve while Marquez may just be showing up for a check. I will be betting some under props in this fight and hoping for a quick stoppage. Zach Reese by Round One Submission
- Nick: Zach Reese is 6-1 professionally, coming off an ugly loss in his UFC debut via slam KO to Cody Brundage. All six of his wins have come via first round finish, four via KO and two via submission. As impressive as Reese has been outside of his debut, most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Only two of his wins have come over opponents with winning records. He’s long for the division with dangerous BJJ, but his defense both at striking range and on the mat is questionable at best. Julian Marquez is a powerful striker with a decent grappling base, but he can sometimes be overaggressive and end up on the wrong side of exchanges. He usually starts somewhat slow, but he has decent cardio and he’s shown an ability to score takedowns against the majority of his opponents. He has been out of action since March of 2023 and he’s coming off back-to-back losses, but this match-up with Reese represents a considerable step down for him in terms of level of competition. This is a tough fight to call, but I’m siding with Marquez. He’s tough to trust in his current form, but I’m not sure Reese is UFC level. Julian Marquez by Round Two KO
Brunno Ferreira -280 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +220
- Anthony: This should be a good middleweight scrap with Dustin Stoltzfus taking on Brunno Ferreira. I am expecting to see a clash of styles here as Stoltzfus eagerly searches for takedowns against a powerful striker. Ferreira is a bit undersized for middleweight but he is strong and packs one hell of a punch. Straight shots from Ferreira will rock Stoltzfus in this fight and present a very clear path to victory for the Brazilian. Stoltzfus can execute a takedown heavy gameplan and outwork Ferreira, but it is a task much easier said than done. While Ferreira seems to have some deficiencies in his wrestling, he is a credentialed jiu jitsu practitioner with good technique on the mat. Ferreira will threaten front headlocks on Stoltzfus and really make it hard to convert any takedown attempts. Stoltzfus’ striking has improved tremendously over time but I do not expect him to have an answer for Ferreira when these two engage early on the feet. If Stoltzfus does end up winning here it will be in the fight’s latter half. Ferreira has never had a professional fight go longer than six minutes. Brunno Ferreira by Round One KO
- Nick: Dustn Stoltzfus is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and while his BJJ is still very much developing, he’s already shown an ability to find creative submissions with wins via both kneebar and twister. As impressive as this may seem, he’s only really been dominating on the ground against low-level competition. He’s hittable on the feet and tentative in exchanges. He has some power but it’s rare we see him in the pocket long enough to land it. Brunno Ferreira is a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his overall athletic ability. He is 2-1 in the UFC, coming off an impressive first round KO win via ground-and-pound of Phil Hawes. While he does have decent grappling ability, there is certainly no denying the fact that Ferreira prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he does a good job countering and finding openings to land his bigger shots. The line feels wide here as Stoltzfus likely has a cardio advantage. Still, it seems more likely than not that Ferreira will catch him for an early finish here. Brunno Ferreira by Round One KO
Raul Rosas Jr -220 vs Ricky Turcios +180
- Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between Raul Rosas Jr and Ricky Turcios. The 19-year-old Rosas was unable to make the walk against Turcios this February when the two were scheduled to fight in Mexico City. Rosas claims he fell ill but I worry he was intimidated by the large home crowd. He has a long way to go in terms of his professional development but already Rosas has shown off great technical skills. His offensive grappling is very clean and being so small and quick makes him a nightmare when it comes to taking backs. His wrestling has also been getting better with Rosas averaging more than one takedown landed per round. Turcios is a good offensive grappler too but his jiu jitsu is not as lethal as the young Rosas. In this fight Turcios will want to keep the feet and use his jab and distance striking to keep Rosas from moving forwards. While his hands are much better than Rosas, Turcios does not have significant power. He will land at a much higher clip than Rosas but I do not expect we see significant damage add up. Eventually Rosas will get Turcios grounded and forced to defend his chokes. I expect this to be a very close decision if the judges’ scorecards are in fact needed. Rosas should be able to clear with superior grappling and more time in top control. Raul Rosas Jr by Decision
- Nick: Rauld Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC. He is 8-1 professionally, coming off a KO win over a low level opponent in Terrence Mitchell. Prior to his win over Mitchell Rosas suffered the first loss of his career, falling to a tough out in Christian Rodriguez. In that loss, he did a poor job pacing himself. After Rodriguez managed to stay out of danger early, Rosas faded quickly and was then dominated for the bulk of the three rounds. Turcois is a highly aggressive and an extremely creative striker. He’s solid in scrambles as well, but he finds most of his success in the middle of the cage just striking at range. He can be hittable, but he’s undoubtedly durable and willing to get into a dog fight. All this being said, he’s failed to impress at the UFC level. He is 2-1 in the promotion, but he’s taken on a low level opponent and he’s been out of action since November of 2022. Rosas’ greatest skill is certainly his advanced BJJ, as five of his seven professional wins have come via submission. Turcios carries a terrible 45 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but he has never been submitted professionally. I don’t really love backing Rosas at this price, as Turcios has solid durability and he’ll likely have a cardio advantage here. That being said, I do feel he’s the rightful favorite. He’s the better grappler and Turcios’ style isn’t likely to give him much trouble on the feet. As long as he manages his gas tank, he should secure the win here. Raul Rosas Jr by Decision.
Dustin Jacoby -250 vs Dominick Reyes +200
- Anthony: The co-main event is a light heavyweight matchup with Dominick Reyes set to face Dustin Jacoby. Reyes last made an appearance at UFC 281 when Ryan Spann landed a vicious knockout in the fight’s opening minutes. Reyes has suffered three straight knockout losses and four consecutive defeats dating back to his 2020 bout with Jon Jones. Reyes has clearly become more reactive in the cage and I fear that his chin can simply no longer take a punch. Opponents are landing clean on Reyes due to his lackluster defense and a tendency to shell up and accept damage as it comes. Jacoby being such a technically skilled striker makes this an easy pick for me. I think Jacoby can very easily handle what Reyes will give him on the feet. Jacoby should land much cleaner combination strikes and find a shot to hurt Reyes before this bout goes too long. He is aggressive moving forward and just as effective when looking to land a big counterpunch. It would surprise me to see Reyes win here unless he can land that big shot first. Dustin Jacoby by Round One KO
- Nick: Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he presents a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. He’s been inconsistent over his last few fights, but he’s still a tough out for the majority of the division. Dominik Reyes’ career has been on the decline as he’s coming off three KO losses in a row, but he is still best known for his outstanding performance against one of the greatest of all time in Jon Jones. Reyes did an excellent job striking at range in that title fight. He threw extremely effective counters and he kept things close on the scorecards for the entirety of five rounds. Reyes is athletic and an extremely dangerous striker at range. He’s a competent grappler with decent BJJ and quality overall conditioning, but his durability has proven to be a major weakness across his last few fights. He has been out of action since November of 2022, so it’s tough to know exactly which version of him we see here. The line feels wide here as Reyes is the better fighter if he shows up in peak shape. Still, I have trouble expecting much from him in this one. Jacoby is technically sound on the feet and Reyes’ durability is too questionable to back with any confidence. Dustin Jacoby by Round Two KO
Nassourdine Imavov -120 vs Jared Cannonier +100
- Anthony: The main event is a middleweight contest between Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov. Drawing into Cannonier is great news for Imavov who earned a big win in his last appearance against Roman Dolidze. He certainly seems to have the skills of a future challenger, showcasing very good striking and elite footwork. Imavov’s style is just like that of Ciryl Gane, a teammate of his at the MMA Factory. An advantage in reach will help Imavov land strikes on Cannonier but it will be difficult for Imavov to commit to long combinations against someone of Cannonier’s caliber. Jared can find big counters here as he exchanges with Imavov on the feet. I imagine Imavov would like to control the center of this cage and keep Cannonier on his back foot retreating. It will be very interesting to see how clinch positions play out and if Cannonier can kill some time in this fight by holding Imavov against the cage side. Cannonier could also score takedowns in this spot coming off a performance in which he scored four. While I have some concerns about betting Cannonier given his age and recent injury, he is a good play at plus money. Cannonier has already cashed tickets against higher level opponents like Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. I think Cannonier earns this victory thanks to his diverse skill set and experience going five rounds. He is more dangerous than Imavov early in this fight and likely has the better cardio if we see into rounds four and five. Jared Cannonier by Round Four KO
- Nick: Nassourdine Imavov is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and dangerous ground and pound. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponents on the feet. He moves well, swinging out of his wide stance and utilizing his solid understanding of angles. He’s a quality wrestler, but more often than not he seems content to stand and trade. Jared Cannonier’s greatest strength is certainly his powerful striking ability. As a former heavyweight, he has true KO power at 185. If he can find a shot to land, he’s capable of putting anyone to sleep immediately. He is most recently coming off impressive wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. He’s coming off an extended layoff following a multitude of surgeries/medical procedures, but he appears to be in excellent shape. This should be a competitive match-up but I expect Cannonier can pull off the upset here. Imavov will look good early, but Cannonier should have a considerable advantage in both cardio and durability. Additionally, we’ve seen Cannonier find success against a much better level of opponent. As long as he survives early, I expect he’ll take over late. Jared Cannonier by Round Four KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com