UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs Craig – 11.18.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs Craig. After a fun pay-per-view last weekend, action returns today for a fight at The Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 281-177-6 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
- Nick: 298-160-6 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-17-2023 at 8pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 2:00pm EST
Rafael Estevam -155 vs Charles Johnson +130
- Anthony: The card begins this afternoon with flyweights Rafael Estevam and Charles Johnson. On the scales yesterday, Estevam was two pounds heavy and looking physically depleted. I was excited for the debut of this Nova União product but I do not love his chances in this spot. Estevam is much more a finesse striker than Johnson who has crisp boxing and very good head movement. Johnson does have a tendency to let fights stay competitive but at the very least you can expect him to keep attacking for all three rounds. His constant movement and stance switches could give Estevam some problems here today. Normally I rely on Johnson in the latter half of fights but I am expecting him to catch Estevam sleeping early here. He should be able to build a lead by using his jab and keeping Estevam on the back foot. Estevam would love to implement his grappling to win this fight if possible. This may be simply decided by whether or not Johnson can defend takedowns. I give him the edge here on the feet. Charles Johnson by Decision
- Nick: Rafael Estevam will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Joao Elias back in 2022. He is 11-0 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO and three via submission. He’s fought a decent level of competition regionally ,and he fights out of a solid camp via Nova União. Estevam has had issues making weight in the past, including as recently as May of 2023 when he was forced to pull out for a botched cut. Charles Johnson is a former LFA flyweight champion. He’s a technically skilled boxer with effective defensive wrestling ability. He’s well-rounded, but he’s tough to gauge in terms of his overall talent as he has been generally inconsistent against top level competition. He is 2-3 in the UFC, coming off a hard fought decision loss to Cody Durden. Johnson does his best work at striking range. He works well behind his jab, he does a good job moving in and out of the range of his opponents and he also carries surprising power for his frame. He has decent wrestling ability, but he mostly prefers to stand and trade. He has been having trouble against grapplers recently. Johnson will be the better fighter here when this fight takes place at striking range, but Estevam has a clear path to victory if he can lean on his grappling. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take Johnson here. He’s been tested more extensively against top competition and Estevam seemed to struggle on the scales. Charles Johnson by Round Three KO
Nikolas Motta -135 vs Trey Ogden +110
- Anthony: Next on the card is a bout at lightweight between Nikolas Motta and Trey Ogden. This is one of the closer fights to call on the card. Both of these guys are very volatile, entering on streaks alternating wins and losses. Ogden stands a bit taller and more well-rounded but not really much of a threat on the feet. Motta has the better striking and crisper defense, making me lean his way in this fight. Ogden has attempted at least one takedown in every UFC appearance thus far. He has a good chance of winning if able to control Motta and nullify his offensive striking but I do not see him getting Motta down onto the mat. Motta has defended 100 percent of opponent takedowns. I expect him to get the job done with his hands here, accruing damage on the face and body of Ogden. It is not at all a fight I am interested in betting. Nikolas Motta by Decision
- Nick: Nikolas Motta is a fairly technical striker who uses all of his limbs well. He doesn’t carry much one-shot power, but he does a good job extending his combinations as a means to hurt his opponents on the feet. He’s dangerous offensively, but his striking defense has hardly been a strength against upper-level competition. He is 1-2 in the UFC, coming off an ugly KO loss to Manuel Torres. He fights out of an excellent vamp via Xtreme Couture, and in spite of his recent loss, he has shown improvements in all facets of his game over his last several fights. At 34-years old it seems unlikely Ogden will have an extensive UFC career, but he’s well rounded and a good test for the prospects in a loaded 155 lb division. Ogden is decent on the feet, but he absorbs more strikes than he lands in exchanges. He’s fairly durable as he’s never been KO’d professionally, but most of his success has come on the mat as he fights mostly to maintain position. This is a low level match-up and thus a tough fight to call. I slightly prefer Ogden as he’ll have a distinct grappling advantage and I expect he’ll be durable enough to force this fight to the scorecards. Trey Ogden by Decision
Ailin Perez -180 vs Lucie Pudilova +155
- Anthony: The next bout comes at women’s bantamweight between Lucie Pudilova and Ailin Perez. I was very impressed by Perez in her win over Ashlee Evans-Smith this summer. That bout saw Perez score ten takedowns and demonstrate how strong and dominant a grappler she can be. I expect the same approach from Perez in this matchup today as she faces a more pure striker in Pudilova. It is a matchup that would favor Perez grappling as she cedes a bit of reach but that would be the game plan anyway as that has been what Perez drills mostly in the gym. Perez also tends to build in rounds two and three which is a trait I like when a fight is likely to see the scorecards. Pudilova’s more refined kickboxing will give Perez issues and if the takedowns do not come easy I expect her to struggle here. I do not like a lot of the pre-fight drama surrounding Perez including the black eye she wore to faceoffs. Pudilova can win here as an underdog if she keeps the fight standing. Lucie Pudilova by Decision
- Nick: Ailin Perez has decent offensive grappling ability, but her takedown entries are far from technical. Her striking is mostly telegraphed and slow, and her decision making when faced with adversity seems questionable at best. In spite of these flaws, she is more than willing to engage in a firefight. She throws hard on the feet, pushes a decent pace, and she has shown solid durability. In her most recent win, a decision over Ashlee Evans-Smith, she showed her grappling is improving at a rapid rate. Pudilova is an aggressive striker who is more than content to stand and trade. She’s decent offensively, but she takes a lot of damage in exchanges. She is coming off a decision loss to Joselyne Edwards, but it is widely accepted she was robbed in that fight and she should be on a four-fight win streak. This is a relatively low-level match-up which makes this a tough fight to call. I’ll back the more experienced fighter in Pudilova here to edge this one out, primarily on the feet. Lucie Pudilova by Decision
Lucas Alexander -550 vs Jeka Saragih +400
- Anthony: This is a matchup between featherweights Jeka Saragih and Lucas Alexander. I am not sure it is warranted that Alexander is so heavily favored in this bout. He is a very proficient striker and likely has an edge here in what will be a kickboxing affair. However, Alexander did miss weight for this fight. His resume is not that impressive as a whole and I’d generally consider him difficult to trust. With all that being said I do expect him still to get the win over Saragih. The style of fight that Saragih frequents is exactly the range Alexander wants to engage him. He is less defensively sound than Alexander and not as comfortable as bouts go late.Alexander is the much more steady octagon presence, dictating range and not biting on nearly as many feints. This should be a fun one for as long as it lasts. Lucas Alexander by Round Two KO
- Nick: Lucas Alexander is coming off an impressive decision win over a tough vet in Steven Peterson. He is 8-3 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO. He has solid footwork, works well behind his jab, and he has also shown exceptional speed and overall athleticism for the division. His grappling is a bit of a question mark as it’s rare we see him rely on that part of his game, and outside of his most recent win over Peterson he really hasn’t been tested extensively against UFC-level competition. Jeka Saragih fights at an aggressive pace. He likes to force his opponents to fight moving backwards. He throws powerful but looping strikes and he’s mostly accurate in his pursuit. His striking defense is questionable at best, as we saw his last time out in a KO loss to Anshul Jubli. He has decent grappling ability both offensively and defensively, but he seems most content to stand and trade on the feet. Eight of his thirteen professional wins have come via KO. Saragih’s hyperaggressor style makes him a difficult fighter to bet against, but Alexander is more technically advanced than him no matter where this one goes. I don’t love the price, but Alexander is a justified favorite. Lucas Alexander by Round Three KO
Mick Parkin -400 vs Caio Machado +300
- Anthony: Next is a bout between heavyweights Mick Parkin and Caio Machado. This should be a very fun matchup given the high pace at which these two tend to fight. Parkin is still undefeated as he competes tonight for the eighth time as a professional. Parkin has more natural power than Machado and a more diverse skillset overall. Parkin will vary his attacks more than Machado and mix bigger shots into his combinations. Machado is a bit more reliant on straight boxing than Parkin, thus making him more predictable. Parkin has also proven capable of ending fights on the mat, likely shooting for takedowns if he ever does fall behind on the feet. I think Parkin is the clear side here in this matchup but I’m not nearly as confident as these odds may imply. Despite the impressive resume of both men this is still not a matchup of highly skilled guys. Mick Parkin by Round Two KO
- Nick: This is a low level heavyweight match-up, but both of these guys are more athletic than they look. Parkin is a powerful striker with decent BJJ, but it’s tough to gauge his level as he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He’s coming off a solid win via decision in his UFC debut over Jamal Pogues, but that was a relatively uneventful fight. He is undefeated at 7-0, but he’s sometimes overly tentative which could prove troublesome for him as a heavyweight. Caio Machado will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an ugly decision win over Kevin Szaflarski in the Contender Series. He is 8-1-1 professionally, but he really hasn’t been tested against top level competition. He’s decent everywhere, but far from technically refined. Generally speaking, he lacks power as a heavyweight. There is always volatility in low level heavyweight fights, but Parkin deserves to be favored here. He is the more potent finisher and better technical fighter in this matchup. Mick Parkin by Decision
Christian Leroy Duncan -500 vs Denis Tiuliulin +370
- Anthony: This is a fight at middleweight between Denis Tiuiulin and Christian Leroy Duncan. Originally Duncan was slated to face Cesar Almeida so props to Tiuliulin for stepping in on short notice. I am expecting a bounce back performance here from Duncan after what was a lackluster showing his last time out. Facing Armen Petrosyan we saw Duncan reluctant to fire and ultimately outstruck by a convincing margin. Today I think more opportunities will present themselves as Tiuliulin’s defense is subpar. He has been finished in three of four UFC fights and absorbing 5.83 significant strikes per minute.Tiuliulin is always going to oblige fights at boxing range and Duncan has all the tools to pick him apart there. Evident in this bout will be far superior footwork from Duncan and a much faster delivery from point A to point B. He switches stances frequently and feints enough to draw out Tiuliulin’s reactions and counters. Even as the -500 favorite here I will be getting involved with Leroy Duncan. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round Two KO
- Nick: Christian Leroy Duncan is 8-1 professionally, with seven of his wins coming via KO. He’s a dynamic striker who has shown serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He’s extremely athletic with creative flying and spinning attacks in his arsenal. He does an excellent job leading his opponents into traps, and he’s explosive out of breaks. He’s coming off his first career loss, a decision to Armen Petrosyan. A fight in which Petrosyan mixed in takedowns to keep Leroy Duncan guessing. Leroy Duncan’s defensive grappling ability is certainly a major hole in his game. Denis Tiuliulin is taking this fight on short notice after César Almeida was forced to pull out due to surgery/infection. Unlike most Russians on the UFC roster, Tiuliulin.is primarily a striker. Each of his last six professional wins have come via KO. He is 1-3 in the UFC, coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Tiuliulin is dangerous offensively, but he telegraphs many of his strikes which leads him open to be countered in chaotic exchanges. If Tiuliulin can find a few takedowns here he’ll be live for the upset. However, that isn’t generally a part of his gameplan. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round One KO
Jose Johnson -200 vs Chad Anheliger +160
- Anthony: Bantamweight action comes next with a fun fight scheduled between Jose Johnson and Chad Anheliger. I do not rate either one of these fighters highly but I do see this as an even match between the two. Both men have had some issues in the UFC when it comes to defending takedowns and keeping fights up on the feet. Anheliger is a quick striker with good heat on his shots and power that stays in the later rounds. Johnson is lanky and more efficient at range while Anheliger thrives more inside of the pocket. With neither man likely to drag this bout onto the mat I see clear value on the Anheliger side. Bantamweights are not known for their knockout power and getting +160 on Anheliger feels like a steal in what will likely be a closely fought decision. He has shown me much more than Johnson in terms of both his Fight IQ and overall grit. Chad Anheliger by Decision
- Nick: Johnson is 28-years-old and 15-8 professionally, coming off a brutal loss via Twister in his UFC debut against Da’Mon Blackshear. He’s relatively well-rounded but he really doesn’t have any singular standout skill offensively. He has faced decent competition fighting for LFA and Fury FC, but it is somewhat surprising he was awarded a UFC contract. Chad Angeliger is 36 years old, so if he’s going to make any noise in the UFC he’ll need to secure some wins in a hurry. He’s coming off a decision loss to Alatengheili, but prior to that he was on a ten-fight win streak with wins over the likes of Brady Hiestand and Muin Gafarov. He’s decent everywhere, with seven of his twelve professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. This is a very low level match-up, which makes it a difficult fight to predict. I’ll back Johnson as the favorite but I wouldn’t put any money on him at this price. Jose Johnson by Decision
Jonathan Pearce -130 vs Joanderson Brito +110
- Anthony: The preliminary card ends with a great featherweight scrap as Jonathan Pearce takes on Joanderson Brito. After a loss in his UFC debut we have seen Brito string together quite an impressive run since. He has now finished three consecutive fights inside of the very first round. This is an easy one to handicap for me as it is likely again a spastic finish that get Brito’s hand raised. He is a bit more powerful than Pearce in terms of his striking and early I could see him landing a shot that could end the night. However, this fight certainly sways into the favor of Pearce the later it ends up getting. He is a crafty and higher volume striker that can efficiently fire from both stances. Pearce has won five straight fights entering this bout and outlanded opponents in all but one of them. He is dynamic in terms of his wrestling and I expect that to be the deciding factor here. Brito is oftentimes willing to fight off of his back and search for submissions with low conversion rates. Pearce is content to fight smart in top position and execute takedowns whenever presented with the opening. Pearce should be able to hold down Brito for large stretches of this bout, ultimately winning a decision or finding himself a finish late. Jonathan Pearce by Decision
- Nick: Pearce fights at a torrid pace and throws a lot of volume as a striker. He doesn’t carry much power in his individual shots, but he can hurt his opponents and put them away with consistent pressure and volume. He has a solid wrestling base and decent BJJ, and he does an excellent job finding top position out of scrambles. He carries lots of momentum into this match-up on a five-fight winning streak, and he’s on the verge of being ranked at featherweight. Brito is known to be extremely aggressive early in fights. He throws explosive strikes, he has powerful takedown entries, and dangerous BJJ as well. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to overwhelm many of his opponents, but it does make him tough to rely on if he can’t secure an early finish. Brito is going to be very dangerous early here, but I do expect Pearce can weather that early storm and extend this fight into the later rounds. Once he does, he should be able to weaponize his cardio and score a finish late. Jonathan Pearce by Round Three Submission
Main Card- Starts 5:00pm EST
Myktybek Orolbai -145 vs Uros Medic +125
- Anthony: Opening the main card is a welterweight bout between Uros Medic and Myktybek Orolbai. This booking came together on Tuesday after news of Medic’s original opponent Jonny Parson withdrawing. I am interested in seeing what Orolbai can do here in the UFC despite drawing a tough debut opponent. A large portion of Orolbai’s resume has been facing very low-level competition. Nonetheless this man has excellent striking and an aggressive fight style that often will yield him a finish. Medic is a craft southpaw striker with much more technically refined skills standing. Orolbai will have an advantage in reach over Medic but I expect much more variety to come out of The Doctor. Medic throws great kicks and an excellent right hand that could end up dropping Orolbai. The Kyrgyzstani fighter may be fun to watch but I do not trust him here as the betting favorite. Orolbai does not have the best defensive shell and I see his hands dropping as this fight enters rounds two and three. The value side here is Medic. Uros Medic by Round Two KO
- Nick: Uros Medic is a skilled striker who is clearly gifted in terms of his technical abilities. He throws meaningful shots and pushes a serious pace but he sometimes over-exerts himself and gets stuck in questionable positions. He has never fought to a decision. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to take out inferior competition, but at the UFC level he’s going to need to learn to pace himself. In spite of his obvious flaws, he’s coming off back-to-back wins via KO and it seems he’s still making considerable improvements between fights. Myktybek Orolbai will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice. Oralbai is 11-1-1 professionally, most recently securing back-to-back wins for a respected regional promotion via LFA. Orolbai is relatively well-rounded with six wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He’s made considerable improvements in his last few fights and it comes as no surprise that he’s getting a shot to compete at this level. As good as Orolbai has looked, it is difficult to gauge how good he is as he’s been finding most of his success against a questionable level of competition. This is another low confidence pick, but I do like Orolbai to secure the win in his debut here as he should be the better grappler in this match-up. Medic will be dangerous on the feet, but Orolbai has shown solid durability on the regional scene. Myktybek Orolbai by Decision
Amanda Ribas -240 vs Luana Pinheiro +185
- Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight matchup between Luana Pinheiro and Amanda Ribas. Thus far Pinheiro is 3-0 in the UFC facing some decent competition. Ribas has fought the better crop of opponents but nonetheless I am expecting a competitive fight today. Pinheiro is a willing grappler and against someone with the jiu jitsu skills of Ribas we could be in for some rather compelling exchanges on the mat. While Ribas’ striking has been improving steadily, I still consider her less potent on the feet than the more aggressive Pinheiro. Having secured more than two takedowns in three straight fights I will side with Ribas when predicting this one. It may be tough to find a finish against Pinheiro but submission attempts and top control should get Ribas this decision victory. Pinheiro has not proven to be dangerous enough for me to roll the dice on her in this matchup. Amanda Ribas by Decision
- Nick: Amanda Ribas is a fan-favorite as an aggressive fighter with outstanding offensive grappling ability. She is a black belt in BJJ, with five of her twelve professional victories coming by way of submission. Her striking continues to improve, but she’s very hittable in exchanges and the strength of her chin is questionable at best. Luana Pinheiro is 3-0 in the UFC, coming off wins over Sam Hughes and Michelle Waterson-Gomez. She is relatively well-rounded. She puts out decent volume on the feet and if she can drag her opponents to the mat she has dangerous offensive grappling ability. Ribas’ questionable durability makes me hesitant to want to back her at the current line. That being said, she is the better overall fighter and we’ve seen her find success against a better level of opponent. Bad price, but Ribas is the side. Amanda Ribas by Decision
Payton Talbott -750 vs Nick Aguirre +525
- Anthony: This matchup at bantamweight has Nick Aguirre facing the debuting Payton Talbott. I am very excited to see the 25 year old Talbott perform in the UFC. The 6-0 professional made a statement this summer with his Contender Series win over Reyes Cortez Jr. He is a phenomenal striker with excellent distance management and a high volume attack. Talbott does excellent dictating the pace of fights on the feet, constantly switching stances and peppering his opponents at every chance that he gets. At times Talbott can be a bit defensively irresponsible but that is warranted when he is landing upwards of fifty significant strikes in each round. Certainly he has the edge over Aguirre in this spot in terms of both skill and conditioning. I really see a bright future ahead of Talbott as he faces much better competition moving forward. Aguirre has performed well in his professional career but not to the extent of the younger Talbott. These odds make it hard to find value but I certainly expect Talbott to cruise through this fight. Payton Talbott by Round Two KO
- Nick: Payton Talbott will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Reyes Cortez. He’s a gifted striker with surprising power for his frame. He has excellent cardio and does a good job circling away from the power of his opponents in exchanges. We haven’t seen him tested extensively on the mat, but he does seem to have solid takedown defense. He is 6-0 and 25-years-old, and certainly a prospect worth keeping an eye on. Nick Aguirre is 7-1, but only two of those wins are over opponents with winning records. He’s coming off a decision loss in his UFC debut to Dan Argueta. He showed solid durability and cardio in that match-up, but he really didn’t find much success offensively. He seems fairly well-rounded when you watch him on film, but his success is tough to gauge given his generally low level of opposition. Talbott is still young and developing as a prospect, so the wide line here isn’t entirely justified. That being said, the UFC is trying to set him up for success here. Aguirre should be a step behind no matter where this one goes. I expect Talbott can keep this one standing until he eventually finds a knockout. Payton Talbott by Round Two KO
Chase Hooper -200 vs Jordan Leavitt +160
- Anthony: The featured bout is an interesting one at featherweight with Jordan Leavitt set to face Chase Hooper. I am a big fan of this booking with rather unique characters set to clash with one another. Hooper is coming off a win in his last bout that was much more impressive than what I had anticipated. Hooper’s striking looked as good as ever in that scrap as he threw a total of 340 strikes. Blending good kickboxing with his lethal jiu jitsu makes Hooper much more dynamic that what he had been just a few fights ago. I like his use of kicks and long range weapons fighting out of the southpaw stance. Leavitt is similar to Hooper in terms of preferring to take fights to the mat. While Leavitt has proven a capable jiu jitsu practitioner I do see him struggling to contain a lengthy and creative opponent such as Hooper. The odds seem appropriate with Hooper a -200 here in what is a very volatile match. I find this very likely a bout that goes to decision whether contested three rounds on the mat or upright exchanging. Chase Hooper by Decision
- Nick: Hooper has extremely advanced grappling ability for a 24-year old. If he can take this fight to the mat, he’s most likely going to look for Leavitt’s back to score a submission. Five of Hooper’s twelve professional wins have come via submission. In many of Hooper’s past fights he was dramatically outclassed on the feet, but he seems to have improved in his most recent decision win over Nick Fiore. Jordan Leavitt, like Hooper, is also primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. He has excellent cardio, and while his strikes don’t do much damage his unorthodox style does seem to be enough to keep him out of serious trouble. Leavitt is coming off a KO win over Victor Martinez, which certainly suggests his striking is improving. Hooper should benefit from the fact that Leavitt mostly prefers to grapple. He tends to struggle against aggressive strikers and Leavitt is anything but that. This is another low level match-up between two questionable skill-sets. Hooper will be the better grappler here, but not by a wide margin. I expect Leavitt’s striking will be solid enough to potentially pull off the upset. Jordan Leavitt by Decision
Michael Morales -350 vs Jake Matthews +260
- Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at welterweight between Jake Matthews and Michael Morales. The undefeated Morales has now won three UFC fights since debuting in the promotion just last year. At a mere 24, Morales is already exceptional in terms of his fundamentals and mixing of martial arts. He is a dynamic striker, benefiting from a 79-inch reach and a very high volume of strikers landed per minute. While Matthews can match Morales’ power I do not see him surviving in a drawn out kickboxing match. I expect Matthews to press the issue here, making the fight dirty with clinchwork and the occasional takedown attempt. Morales defended all eight of Max Griffin’s takedowns in their fight this July, proving to be more than capable of keeping fights upright. Matthews’ better shot at cashing as the underdog is catching Morales with a bit hook or uppercut in close. I do not plan to bet much on this contest but Morales is the pick for me to keep his winning streak alive. I have historically had a difficult time handicapping Jake Matthews’ fights. Michael Morales by Round Two KO
- Nick: Morales is only 24 years old, but he already fights with patience and poise. He has a decent wrestling base, but he certainly prefers to stand and trade. He does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations, he has excellent footwork especially defensively. While his volume on the feet can be low at times, his offensive strikes are both explosive and accurate. He is an underrated grappler with decent BJJ. Jake Matthews has more experience at this level than almost any other 28-year-old in the world. He’s a well-rounded fighter who has found most of his success on the mat. He has 12 wins under the UFC banner since he debuted back in 2014, but most of them have come against fighters that are no longer on the roster/with the promotion. To me this fight feels closer than the line indicates. However, Morales is going to have the advantage on the feet here. He’s the far more aggressive fighter of the two, and Matthews has had issues in the past fighting off his back foot. Michael Morales by Decision
Brendan Allen -450 vs Paul Craig +330
- Anthony: The main event is a tilt between streaking middleweight Brendan Allen and Paul Craig. Allen has accrued an impressive 10-2 resume in the UFC as he now headlines his first main event. Even the past year we have seen Allen continuing to evolve, training at Kill Cliff FC and vastly improving his striking. Allen’s last win against Bruno Silva saw him score a knockdown before securing the first round finish. He now has very good hands to pair with his black belt in jiu jitsu. While he is extremely capable on the mat I do not imagine he wants to engage much in that realm against Paul Craig. Craig cashed as the underdog in his middleweight debut, submitting another credentialed grappler in Andre Muniz. At this point Craig has cemented his legacy as one of the all-time great submission specialists and I view that as his one win condition here. Craig does appear to be in great physical shape and dialed in for this fight as always. Allen will need to fight very smart early to not give Craig opportunities to snatch his arms or legs. The later this bout goes will likely favor Allen who has been building towards five rounds for a while. I won’t bet Allen at odds that are this wide but I do think his hands get the job done in this spot. Brendan Allen by Round Two KO
- Nick: Thirteen of Allen’s twenty-two professional wins have come via submission. He has excellent BJJ, with a solid wrestling base, but he makes questionable decisions in many of his fights. He often plays into the strengths of his opponents and he seems overly emotional at times as he engages in brawls. His striking continues to show improvements, which isn’t surprising as he recently shifted to an excellent camp in Kill Cliff FC. He’s now on a five-fight winning streak, most recently securing a submission win over Bruno Silva after dropping him with strikes. Craig has outstanding BJJ, with thirteen of his seventeen professional wins coming via submission. He’s coming off a win via ground-and-pound KO over Andre Muniz, a fight that represented his promotional debut at middleweight. Craig is always live for an upset via submission, but Allen is defensively sound on the mat and the far better striker in this match-up. The line feels a bit wide as Allen has historically been volatile, but in this particular match-up he should have Craig covered here. He’ll need to be very careful in his submission defense, but I expect he’ll mostly keep this fight standing where he should outclass Craig by a wide margin. Brendan Allen by Round Two KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com