UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs Lewis – 11.4.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs Lewis. The UFC is back in action this weekend and returning to Brazil with quite the stacked fight night lineup. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 267-170-4 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
- Nick: 283-154-4 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-3-2023 at 11pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 6:00pm EST
Marc Diakiese -190 vs Kaue Fernandes +165
- Anthony: The card today begins with a fight at lightweight between Marc Diakiese and Kaue Fernandes. Fernandes is a solid prospect accustomed to fighting for LFA. Oftentimes we see him in rather exciting fights, throwing looping strikes and aggressively chasing opportunities on the mat. His jiu jistu is rather slick but Fernandes has a tendency to chase the finish with reckless abandon. This could result in his demise here today. While Fernandes was able to secure finishes in his previous two wins, Diakiese is a much steadier athlete with more consistent offensive output and defensive awareness. Diakiese has come up short in his previous two UFC bouts but I feel like this booking is rather soft in comparison to his previous few. His striking fundamentals are much better than Fernandes’ and I expect Diakiese to prove himself the more skilled fighter over these three rounds. Fernandes will be dangerous in this fight early but I think he begins to exhaust rapidly by the latter half of round two. Marc Diakiese by Decision
- Nick: Marc Diakiese is a talented striker. He’s technically sound with underrated power. He does a good job mixing kicks into his combinations and he’s excellent in the clinch and offensively out of breaks. He’s been leaning on his wrestling much more lately, but he was finished via submission his last time out against a dangerous BJJ player in Joel Alvarez. Kaue Fernandes will be making his UFC debut here, coming off back to back wins via KO for LFA. He is primarily a striker, fighting out of a solid Brazilian camp in Nova Uniao. He seems competent everywhere, but his wrestling defense is certainly more of a weakness than a strength. I’m also not confident he has the cardio to fight hard at this level for fifteen minutes. Diakiese should be able to lean on a wrestling heavy game plan to grind out a decision here, and if he has trouble taking Fernandes down he is certainly capable of hanging on the feet. This is a low confidence play as it’s tough to get a clear read on Fernandez, but I see Diakiese as the rightful favorite. Marc Diakiese by Decision
Eduarda Moura -625 vs Montserrat Ruiz +450
- Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s strawweight between Eduarda Moura and Montserrat Ruiz. Moura turned pro at the start of 2022 and already boasts an unblemished record of 9-0. She certainly seems built for this sport, physical with her offensive grappling and rather strong compared to the athletes she will fight at 115 pounds. It is worth noting Moura was heavy on the scales yesterday although I do not expect that to be a factor in deciding this bout. Without the added weight Moura still towers over Ruiz and certainly has the edge in any clinch and grappling exchanges. This was booked with plans for a squash-match, hyping up the crowd in Sao Paulo as Moura is victorious in her UFC debut. I am skeptical of Moura’s strength of schedule but the Contender Series win over Janaina Silva really impressed me. Ruiz has solid boxing but apart from that I see her struggling to mount any offense in this fight. At range Moura benefits from a five-inch edge in reach, making it extremely difficult for Ruiz to close the distance. Eduarda Moura by Round Three Submission
- Nick: Ruiz does a good job pushing forward and putting pressure on her opponents. She’s willing to eat shots to throw them, but she prefers to grapple in most matchups. She’s a black belt in BJJ via 10th Planet, with creative and sneaky offensive grappling ability. Ruiz has found a lot of success overpowering and muscling takedowns against smaller and inferior opponents on the regional scene, but at the UFC level she has been struggling to build any momentum. She is coming off back to back losses, and there’s a decent chance she’ll be cut from the promotion if she can’t secure a win in this spot. Eduarda Moura will be making her UFC debut here, coming off an impressive submission win over Janaina Silva on the Contender Series. She is 9-0 professionally, and it seems she is rounding into her athletic prime at 29-years old. She is relatively well-rounded with three wins via knockout and five by submission. She’s big for the division and competent everywhere, but she has only been fighting professionally since March of 2022. The line feels wide here as Moura doesn’t have much experience, but I do expect her to dominate. Eduarda Moura by Round Two KO
Denise Gomes -150 vs Angela Hill +125
- Anthony: This is another women’s strawweight matchup between Angela Hill and Denise Gomes. Normally Hill fights are easy to handicap given her tendency to fight hard to the scorecards. She is 10-13 under the UFC banner with all but four of those bouts going the distance. Hill will be looking to fight Gomes at a safe range in this matchup. She does well earning favor with the judge’s constantly pumping out volume, moving forward and landing in combination. Gomes certainly lacks technical skill when compared to Angela but clearly has the edge in terms of punching power. Knocking out Bruna Brasil and Yazmin Jauregui proved to me that this young lady’s hands are legit. The muay thai from Gomes is also a factor in this bout as she should oblige Hill when the two do collide in the clinch. I won’t recommend a heavy bet on Gomes here as the favorite but I do expect her to get the job done facing Hill today. Her attacks to the body and head will disrupt Hill’s rhythm and limit much in terms of efficient return. Denise Gomes by Decision
- Nick: Gomes fights aggressively, primarily as a striker, but she is far from technically refined. While effective on the offensive end, her mediocre footwork and head movement often leaves her in compromising positions defensively. She is coming off a massive upset win via KO of Yazmin Jauregui as a +300 underdog. As impressive as that result was, it makes it difficult to gauge Gomes’ skill if she’s unable to find that early finish. This fight will mark Angela Hill’s 24th with the UFC. Hill is well-rounded, with a powerful muay thai striking base. She is a competent grappler with decent BJJ, but most of her success has come striking both in the clinch as well as in open space. She’s coming off an ugly loss to Mackenzie Dern in a five round main event, and at 38-years old there is a decent chance her career could be winding down. I expect Gomes will be dangerous early here, but as long as Hill can extend this fight she should have technical advantages no matter where this fight goes. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll be backing the underdog. Angela Hill by Decision
Vitor Petrino -250 vs Modestas Bukauskas +200
- Anthony: The event begins to heat up next with light heavyweights Vitor Petrino and Modestas Bukauskas. I have been impressed with Bukauskas in his return to fighting in the UFC. Currently he sits with a four-fight winning streak after getting his hand raised in two return bouts under the promotional banner. He is bigger than most opponents, using that length to great effect at kickboxing range. I consider Bukauskas quicker and more technically skilled than Petrino although the one-punch power is not there. Regardless Bukauskas is getting a bit overlooked now the +200 underdog given his body of work and recent improvements. From both stances I can see Bukauskas giving Petrino trouble. It is very likely Petrino will be shooting in this fight and while his jiu jitsu is quite superior, Bukauskas has proven difficult to take down and strong in clinch positions. I trust Bukauskas to dig underhooks on a couple of occasions here, winning more minutes on the cage than many would expect. In what I am anticipating as a close fight my money will be on the dog. It is not a very confident pick but Petrino seems tough to trust at these closing odds. Modestas Bukauskas by Decision
- Nick: Petrino is somewhat untested, but there’s no denying his overall athleticism or his power in striking exchanges. Six of Petrino’s nine professional wins have come via KO. He’s almost always aggressive early in fights. His cardio was a weakness for him earlier in his career, but he showed a solid gas tank in his two UFC wins over Anton Turkalj and more recently Marcin Prachnio. At 26-years old he continues to show massive improvement everytime we see him in the cage, and he’s in a favorable match-up here in front of his home crowd. Bukauskas is a powerful striker with a massive frame for a light heavyweight. He is 6’3 with a 78-inch reach. He fights even longer than that, as he keeps a wide stance both striking and defending against takedowns. His greatest strength is his powerful striking, but he seems to leave his hands down which leaves him vulnerable against other powerful punchers. The line is probably a bit wider than it should be, but Bukauskas’ weaknesses should play into Petrino’s strengths. I expect a KO for the Brazilian in this one. Vitor Petrino by Round One KO
Rinat Fakhretdinov -350 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +275
- Anthony: Next we have a fight at welterweight between Rinat Fakhretdinov and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Famously known for perfecting the Capoeira style, the Brazilian Zaleski dos Santos is up against it today facing a hyped prospect from Russia. I have made money backing Zaleski lately, coming off a pair of wins here on the back nine of his career. While Zaleski is not as quick or dangerous as he once was, nobody can deny his comfort striking and the flowing state he lives in when exchanges on the feet become prolonged. Fakhretdinov is not going to compete with Zaleski much at that range though, likely shooting for takedowns as soon as they become available. Zaleski’s stance can often result in him easily getting taken to the mat although he usually does not struggle long fighting back to an upright position. I feel he can keep this fight competitive with Fakhretdinov although common knowledge would suggest the Russian eventually will get settled on top. Zaleski has never been submitted in the UFC and although I find it likely he lasts to a decision in this spot, I do worry about Fakhretdinov wrapping up the neck at some point. His top pressure and aggression will be the difference in deciding this one. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Decision
- Nick: Primarily a grappler, it’s a bit surprising to see eleven of Fakhretdinov’s twenty-two professional wins have come via KO. He has an impressive record at 22-2, coming off a massive win over a former top contender in Kevin Lee. Fakhretdinov is a gifted wrestler who does exceptional work against the cage. He throws powerful strikes but mostly as a means to set up his grappling. It seems his striking has come a long way over the past few years. That being said, he’s certainly going to try to lean on his grappling in this match-up. Zaleski dos Santos is one of the more creative strikers in this division. He does an excellent job throwing and landing wild spinning attacks. He’s a powerful puncher, and he does a good job mixing explosive kicks into his combinations. He has decent defensive grappling ability, but he does struggle at times to get back to his feet once he’s grounded. Fakhretdinov’s key to victory here is to find takedowns against dos Santos and mitigate his striking advantages. If he spends too much time standing, there’s a good chance he falls behind early or gets caught with a power shot. Another fight where the line feels wide, but Fakhretdinov is the pick. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Decision
Elves Brenner -220 vs Kaynan Kruschewsky +180
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a bout between two Brazilian fighters Elves Brenner and Kaynan Kruschewsky. This is a short notice appearance for Kruschewsky who steps in on just a few days notice. It is being contested at a catchweight of 165 pounds as Kruschewsky is quite large for the standard lightweight limit. This is a native of Sao Paulo Brazil, formerly Jungle Fights champion and a recent winner on Dana White’s Contender Series as well. Kruschewsky certainly feels ready to step up and take on this booking although I find Brenner a bit more likely to deliver on the night. The product of Chute Boxe Diego Lima has already proven himself UFC caliber with wins over both Guram Kutateladze and Zubaira Tukhugov in his short notice debut. Brenner is well-rounded with effective grappling and a great mix of power and precision on the feet. Given Brenner’s great defensive striking metrics I would wager it unlikely Kruschewsky beats him in a fist fight unless he can win with an emphatic finish. Brenner remains persistent in the face of adversity and generally has a great feel for which minutes he needs to win. Surely Brenner has benefited from a full camp more than Kruschewsky and is more prepare for rounds two and three if these two even get there. I am expecting a good showing from Kruschewsky but not executing to the extent needed for an upset to materialize. Elves Brenner by Decision
- Nick: Kaynan Kruchewsky will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice. Kruchewsky is coming off a solid Contender Series win via Submission of Dylan Mantello. Prior to that he had secured the Jungle Fight Lightweight Championship and many have him pegged as a prospect to watch given his 15-1 record fighting out of Brazil. Elves Brenner is coming off a massive upset win knockout out Guram Kutateladze. He was a +450 underdog in that match-up, but he survived an early onslaught from Kutaladze and then took over late, mixing in heavy body shots to eventually score the finish. Brenner is an aggressive striker who does well backing his opponents up against the cage. He has solid durability and cardio, but he sometimes leaves himself open to be countered as he seems to lack defense in exchanges. Brenner’s style makes him a volatile fighter to back, but I do expect he secures the win in this match-up. I can’t back Kruchewsky on less than a weeks’ notice. Elves Brenner by Round Two KO
Main Card- Starts 9:00pm EST
Rodolfo Vieira -110 vs Armen Petrosyan -110
- Anthony: The main card opens with a middleweight tilt between Rodolfo Vieira and Armen Petrosyan. This is a classic matchup of grappler and striker with Vieira desperately looking to get this bout onto the ground. Petrosyan has thus far defended just 36 percent of opponent takedowns since joining the UFC. He faced a striker in Christian Leroy Duncan his last bout but in the four fights prior for Petrosyan, he was taken down by each opponent no fewer than two times. Petrosyan is a lethally accurate striker with great kickboxing and a rather high output attack. It will be a one-sided fight regardless of the winner and I find that the likely reason for the even betting odds. I do not imagine Vieria will spend much time at all striking here fighting in his native Brazil. The takedown attempt should come very early in this fight and Petrosyan has proven an inability to properly defend. Vieira is always volatile but I find value betting him here given the great price we are getting. Rodolfo Vieira by Round One Submission
- Nick: Vieira is one of the most talented BJJ players in the UFC as a decorated Black belt and Five-time BJJ World Champion. He’s a Freestyle Wrestling and a Combat Sambo Master of sport, but he definitely leans on his jiu-jitsu as it’s far and away his greatest strength. Vieira’s striking is far from technical, but he’s a monster physically so he can put power behind his punches and close distance effectively enough to work opponents to the mat. As dangerous as he is, his cardio is a major liability. Petrosyan is a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and outstanding speed. He manages range well, has outstanding footwork, and five of his eight professional wins have come via KO. He is 3-1 under the UFC banner, most recently securing a convincing decision win over Christian Leroy Duncan. In many ways this is a striker vs. grappler match-up. On the feet Petrosyan should mostly dominate, but if he’s taken down there’s a high likelihood Vieria can finish him. This is a low confidence play, but I slightly prefer the grappler here. Rodolfo Vieria by Round One Submission
Caio Borralho -300 vs Abus Magomedov +240
- Anthony: Next is a middleweight contest between Caio Borralho and Abus Magomedov. Thus far Borralho has really delivered since joining the UFC, going 4-0 thus far in the promotion. He is on a winning streak that dates back nearly a decade with the only recorded defeat since coming against headliner Jailton Almeida in a submission grappling bout. He is an extremely intelligent fighter, knowledgeable in all positions and utilizing feints and time very well to get the better of his opponents. Borralho is dangerous on the feet with his hooks and heavy kicks but in a matchup with Magomedov I do not figure him to strike very frequently. Magomedov’s best discipline is his kickboxing with a wide arsenal of attacks and great choice of weapons at range. These odds are a bit inflated coming off the most recent performances by both men. I was tempted to bet Magomedov here in what I consider a buy-low spot, but ultimately I decided against it. Seeing Magomedov melt so quickly against Sean Strikland gives me far lest confidence in his stand-up than what I had when he first entered the UFC. Borralho should get his hand raised here in a fight where he grapples and chances aren’t much worse if he elects to instead chase after Magomedov on the feet. Caio Borralho by Decision
- Nick: Abus Magomedov is coming off an ugly KO loss to Sean Strickland in which he was effective early, but quickly faded as his cardio completely depleted. Magomedov is a rangy striker with a decent wrestling base and dangerous BJJ. He throws extremely powerful strikes, but he struggles if opponents can close distance on him and as we saw in the Strickland fight his durability is questionable at best. Borralho is light on his feet and does a good job peppering his opponents at range. His striking has been impressive in his short UFC tenure, but he’s found most of his success via grappling and advancing on the mat for submissions. He’s coming off an impressive win via submission over a quality opponent in Michał Oleksiejczuk. He is 4-0 in the UFC, and likely on the verge of entering the rankings at 185 lbs. Magomedov will be live for a quick KO here, but I expect Borralho can withstand that early attack and then take over as this fight wears on. Caio Borralho by Round Two KO
Rodrigo Nascimento -200 vs Don’Tale Mayes +160
- Anthony: The featured bout comes at heavyweight between Rodrigo Nascimento and Don’Tale Mayes. This is a rematch of a fight that took place in 2020 and saw Nascimento win by round two submission. Both men can be categorized as lackluster heavyweight contenders as there is really little separating the skill set of both on the feet. Mayes has slightly improved in the several years since that bout and now uses his length a bit better than before. One the feet these two will be rather even with Nascimento likely the man pressuring forward and digging in his power punches. He is not the most aggressive striker but Nascimento is effective pushing his weight around and landing shots on opponents when the distance begins to close. Evidenced in the first fight between these two was a clear edge in grappling for the Brazilian Nascimento. Control along the cage made it easy for Nascimento to drag Mayes onto the mat and eventually secure what would be the fight-ending submission. I do not see any need for a deviation from that game plan and Nascimento looks to capture another win here today over Lord Kong. Rodrigo Nascimento by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Nascimento enters this match-up with six of his ten wins coming via submission. He’s a decorated BJJ Black Belt, who in most of his fights tries to drag things to the mat as early as possible. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi, and at 30-years old he’s actually on the younger side for the division. Don’Tale Mayes is a powerful striker, but he’s sometimes slow and plodding and he often seems to wait for the fight to come to him. He can be explosive once he gets going, but he’s the type of fighter that needs to eat a few shots to wake up and get aggressive. He’s continued to show improvements both in his striking and grappling ability, but there is no denying the fact he’s been dramatically inconsistent at the UFC level. This fight is a rematch, and Nascimento won via submission the last time these two faced off. I’m having trouble expecting a different result, just over three years later. Rodrigo Nascimento by Round Three Submission
Gabriel Bonfim -625 vs Nicolas Dalby +450
- Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at welterweight between Nicolas Dalby and the undefeated Gabriel Bonfim. This is a showcase fight for the 15-0 Bonfim, a man representing what could be the future for Brazilian martial arts. Gabriel and his brother Ismael are advanced pupils of Cerrado MMA, blending what are excellent striking fundamentals with what I consider a lethal ground game. Bonfim currently boasts a streak of four straight submission wins with all coming over high quality competition. All of his professional fights have ended by finishing with him quickly dismantling opponents and usually choking them unconscious. Dalby has proven to be a very durable competitor but there actually is a submission loss on his ledger, albeit one overruled due to a bad drug test. He has certainly proven tough with good late cardio and an ability to clinch to avoid punishment but Bonfim will not give him many positions to rest today. Bonfim is great with his body locks and I do not think Dalby has the balance or wrestling pedigree needed to keep this one from getting ugly. Bonfim may be a bit too hyped at the current odds but I expect him to get control of Dalby rather early on in this one. It’s a matchup certainly catering to his skillset with little power to worry about coming back his way. Gabriel Bonfim by Round One Submission
- Nick: Gabriel Bonfim is 15-0 professionally, coming off impressive wins via submission over Mounir Lazzez and Trevin Giles. Bonfim is an aggressive fighter and a potent finisher no matter where his fights go. Twelve of his fifteen professional wins have come via submission and the other three have come via KO. He’s an explosive striker who sometimes leaves himself there to be countered, but his speed and ability to roll with powerful strikes have him a class ahead on the feet of a majority of this division. His wrestling is decent, but he has outstanding BJJ. He’s a submission over position grappler and it’s very rare he doesn’t aggressively pursue finishes if he can drag his opponent to the mat. Nicolas Dalby is fairly well rounded, but most of his success has come through his strong wrestling base. He’s decent on the feet, but doesn’t throw much volume. He can be dangerous offensively, but defensively he is often there to be countered as he throws looping power shots rather than tight compact combinations. Dalby has never been finished and I do expect he’ll have a cardio advantage in this match-up. That being said, at 38-years old I do expect Dalby’s durability will start to decline. This is another match-up that should play out closer than the line suggests, but Bonfim is the pick. He should slice through Dalby if he can get this fight to the mat. Gabriel Bonfim by Round One Submission
Jailton Almeida -500 vs Derrick Lewis +380
- Anthony: The main event comes at heavyweight with Derrick Lewis set to face Jailton Almeida. This fight is a rather short notice booking with Lewis just recently jumping into camp for tonight after news of an injury to Curtis Blaydes. Almeida has already proven to me he is an elite heavyweight contender and I very much was looking forward to a tilt between him and Blaydes. Now instead Almeida faces a man that he should beat given the wins already on his resume. This massive Brazilian has had no trouble bringing the heaviest of men to the mat and making quick work of them with his immense top pressure. Almeida is dynamic in his shots for takedowns and good at either finishing his double-leg attempts or transitioning instead to attacks on the opponents’ hips and back. Lewis does defend 52 percent of opponent takedowns but Almeida seems to be on another level in terms of this division and their fighter’s jiu jitsu skills. I do not expect Almeida to be intimidated by Lewis, normally not wasting any time at all beginning to hunt for his shot. Of course the power of Lewis is worrying, holding the record for all-time UFC knockouts and coming off a win over Pezzao de Lima in less than one minute of cage time. There could be negative variance in this bout but all indications have me anticipating a clean win for Almeida. I will be betting on him getting this finish in what I believe to be a properly lined fight. Jailton Almeida by Round One Submission
- Nick: Jailton Almeida is coming off dominant wins over Shamil Abdurakhimov, Anton Turkalj, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, all of which came via finish. He’s extremely explosive and athletic with solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida has shown excellent takedown entries, weight control and sweeping ability. He has dominated most grappling exchanges so far in the UFC and he has shown a very high fight IQ since he signed with the promotion. He’s dangerous everywhere, and he does an excellent job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents. Derrick Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-two of his twenty-seven professional wins coming via KO. He’s coming off an impressive KO win over Marcos Rogério de Lima, but he’s running into a difficult stylistic match-up against a dangerous grappler in Jailton Almeida. With Lewis historically struggling against grapplers and also taking this fight on short notice, I’m forced to back Almeida here. Lewis is always live for an upset via KO, but that is his only path to victory. I expect Almeida can ground Lewis early here and work him for a quick submission. Jailton Almeida by Round One Submission
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com