With preseason football mercifully over, it’s officially draft season. We’re through with holding our breath while your favourite players suit up against a long shot vying for a roster spot – everyone (for the most part) is healthy, eager and ready to lead your team to fantasy glory.
So now’s the time to finalize your rankings. There will be no wild changes to team’s rosters now that will affect how you want to build your team.
We start as always with quarterbacks. There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement in my rankings in the upper tiers at this position. If you want a player by player breakdown, my OTA edition still holds up for the most part, but for brevity’s sake, this edition will just have a few notes about each tier, with the occasional tirade of players that have impressed or disappointed this preseason.
Tier 1: The best of the best, and none of them have done anything this preseason to change my opinion. They run the top 3 most explosive offenses and are basically matchup proof. I could definitely see an argument for putting Hurts or Allen ahead of Mahomes due to their rushing ability, but I actually think Mahomes is working with a collection of receivers this season that absolutely can break out and take some pressure off of Travis Kelce. Remember, Mahomes led the league on both yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) last season and had the highest completion percentage of his career (67.1%), despite the receiving group dealing with injuries and inconsistency all season. There’s more depth there and Mahomes can turn any receiver into a star on a weekly basis.
I find ranking Hurts and Allen very difficult. In the OTA rankings, I had Allen below Hurts because of Buffalo’s investment this offseason in a big, red zone running back in Damien Harris, who was primed to steal some rushing touchdowns from Allen. However, Harris has spent most of the preseason watching from the sideline dealing with injuries, which has been a trend for the 5th year back. With Harris out of the lineup, the team seems to want to commit to giving James Cook a bigger role. Cook is more of a satellite back and loves to work in space. He’ll probably be incredible between the 20’s, but will have trouble finding looks in the red zone. With my faith in Harris dwindling, I really feel like the team will go back to relying on Allen’s rushing ability, especially in the red zone, which made me want to bump him ahead of Hurts.
Then we got an actual look at the Eagles running back room, and frankly it’s been a disappointment. They took a flier on Rashaad Penny with a one year deal in free agency, but he can’t stay healthy and doesn’t seem to have earned the trust of the coaching staff. D’Andre Swift also comes with injury baggage, and, like Cook, will probably only be utilized with the middle 80 yards of the field. Beat reporters are saying that Kenneth Gainwell is looking like the Eagles preferred running back, but 3rd year breakouts for day 3 drafted running backs who haven’t missed time with injury are incredibly rare.
Both Allen and Hurts are incredibly dangerous on the ground and through the air, although I would give Hurts a slight edge in total rushing attempts and yards over Allen. I also give the edge to the Eagles receiving corps as a whole over the group in Buffalo, which is why I couldn’t bump Allen up to the number 2 spot.
Walking away from your draft with either quarterback is a definite win.
1. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – Previous Rank 1
2. Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles – Previous Rank 2
3. Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills – Previous Rank 3
Tier 2: The only movement in the second wave of quarterbacks is the slight demotion of Joe Burrow. Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields just offer so much more upside with their rushing ability. Jackson is looking to have a bounce back season in 2023, and with a new offense led by OC Todd Monken, his offensive snaps should increase significantly this season, which obviously bodes well for fantasy output.
The Bears new look offense seems to be more focused on developing Fields as a passer, as he looks to be ready to take a massive leap this season. Add in his record breaking rushing ability, and he has the potential to break through into the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks as early as this year.
Zac Taylor, head coach of the Bengals, has been telling the press that Burrow is looking great, but he’s still recovering from a calf strain suffered the 1st week of camp. He’s an elite passer and is surrounded by an incredible amount of receiving talent, but he doesn’t add much on the ground and is missing his 3rd straight training camp. He’s definitely a safe pick at his current ADP, but I just have a hard time projecting Burrow breaking out any further than he already has.
Herbert and Lawrence finish out the second tier of quarterbacks as high level passing quarterbacks that don’t have much additional value as rushers. Both of their teams have surrounded them with high level pass catchers, but both need some standout performances from their offensive lines this season if they want to move up in the rankings.
4. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens – Previous Rank 5
5. Justin Fields – Chicago Bears – Previous Rank 6
6. Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – Previous Rank 4
7. Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars – Previous Rank 7
8. Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers – Previous Rank 8
Tier 3: The third tier of quarterbacks are the guys who certainly have flaws, but there is a world where they can even outperform some of the quarterbacks in the tier above them.
Tua personifies that statement perfectly. He’s surrounded by incredible weapons that can turn any pass into a massive gain, and showed us last year at the beginning of the season his incredibly high ceiling. Unfortunately the risk of re-injury is so high with Tagovailoa, and he just didn’t look the same in the second half last season. His success is also closely tied with the performance of the offensive line, and with their best player on the line being an injury prone 32 year old in Terron Armstead, Tagovailoa may struggle from week to week.
Anthony Richardson moves up the rankings after officially being named the starter for the Colts this season. With the drama surrounding Jonathan Taylor, he’s also likely in line to lead the team in rushing. I’m concerned that teams will now be able to spy on Richardson on almost every snap without having a superstar running back lining up next to him which may limit his ceiling as the season wears on, but for now I want to put some faith in his size and athletic ability. He has too much athletic talent to not want to take a risk with him.
The hodgepodge of slot receivers the Giants have assembled seems to be sorting itself out, but their biggest weapon in the receiving game is Darren Waller. The connection between Jones and Waller has been incredible all preseason, and I think Jones will far exceed his current ADP thanks to both his work in the running game and the addition of a true red zone threat. If Jones can take the next step in his development with the addition of a prime tight end as a security blanket, he can be in line for a breakout fantasy season, and his current ADP has him going late in the 10th round.
9. Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins – Previous Rank 9
10. Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts – Previous Rank 14
11. Daniel Jones – New York Giants – Previous Rank 11
Tier 4: This next trio of quarterbacks will all have fine fantasy seasons due to their safe weekly floors, but have very low potential for those massive weeks where they single handedly win you a matchup..
Rodgers has some excellent receiving weapons, but he plays for a team that’s built on their defense, and they just signed another star at running back in Dalvin Cook. I have a hard time seeing the Jets getting into many shootouts this season, or playing from so far behind that Rogers has to take the aerial attack to the next level.
Geno Smith was the most accurate quarterback in the league last season, but despite adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to his receiving group, I just can’t see him rising any further than he did last year. Again, he will finish with solid fantasy numbers across the whole season, but like last year, his ceiling is capped and the huge performances will be lacking.
The Dallas offense seems to be primed to slow things down this season, but I’m giving Prescott a little ratings boost regardless. The injury history concerns me, as does Mike McCarthy’s play calling, but Prescott has a good receiving corps and two strong options at tight end. Pollard is primed to take over as the lead running back, and he’s a fantastic pass catcher as well. Look for a nice bounce back season from Prescott.
Is #Cowboys Dak Prescott the most unwarrantedly criticized player in the #NFL? pic.twitter.com/A1948jOtyZ
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) August 30, 2023
12. Aaron Rodgers – New York Jets – Previous Rank 18
13. Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks – Previous Rank 10
14. Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – Previous Rank 15
Tier 5: The 5th tier are guys you should only be taking if you are in 2 QB leagues.
I am very low on Deshaun Watson compared to his ADP, and his preseason performances haven’t impressed me enough to even consider him as a fantasy starter. He’s currently being drafted in the 7th round, which seems absurd to me. This is Nick Chubb’s offense. The team looks like they want to get Elijah Moore involved with some sweeps and hand offs as well, and while I think Amari Cooper is still a great receiver, he’s approaching his 30’s and has some hard miles.
Brock Purdy is officially healthy and has been named the starter for the Niners this season. The weapons on offense are incredible, and out of anyone in this tier, Purdy has the most potential to take a big leap this year.
Goff, Cousins and Carr are all interchangeable parts to me. They have the potential to put up major performances on a weekly basis, but are just as likely to bust and net you under 10 points. For what it’s worth, Cousins is going in the 9th round, Goff in the 11th and Carr in the 13th, so if you’re stuck looking at these guys for your fantasy roster, take the one with the best value and hope for the best.
Sam Howell has been named the starter in Washington, and I believe he’ll move up the rankings quickly. He’s mostly going undrafted, but his connection to Jahan Dotson has been a treat to watch this offseason. Howell definitely has his flaws (holding onto the ball for too long chief among them), but he has the ability to scramble to save himself and rack up those valuable rushing yards.
15. Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns – Previous Rank 12
16. Brock Purdy – San Francisco 49ers – Previous Rank 33
17. Jared Goff – Detroit Lions – Previous Rank 13
18. Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings – Previous Rank 16
19. Derek Carr – New Orleans Saints – Previous Rank 17
20. Sam Howell – Washington Commanders – Previous Rank 20
Tier 6: The rest.
I honestly think Jordan Love will surprise some people this season, but he’s still probably a year or 2 away from being relevant in the fantasy community. I don’t see him excelling this season with the receiver depth he’s currently surrounded by.
Kyler Murray is a great draft and stash – he’s been left on the PUP list so he’ll miss the first 4 games of the season. While the Cardinals aren’t hiding their intentions to tank, they would love Murray to come back and put up some impressive performances to drive up his trade value. If he gets moved before the deadline he could be a late season stud for your roster.
Pickett has a chance to break out, but the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh is opposed to passing the ball downfield, so I would avoid Pickett until Canada is inevitably let go.
Rookies Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud have promising potential, but they’re both on questionable offenses and will have rough rookie seasons. Excellent picks for dynasty leagues, but should be avoided in almost every redraft format.
21. Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers – Previous Rank 23
22. Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals – Previous Rank 28 IR
23. Kenny Pickett – Pittsburgh Steelers – Previous Rank 19
24. Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams – Previous Rank 21
25. Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos – Previous Rank 22
26. Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers – Previous Rank 24
27. C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans- Previous Rank 25
28. Jimmy Garoppolo – Las Vegas Raiders – Previous Rank NR
29. Mac Jones – New England Patriots – Previous Rank 26
30. Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Previous Rank 32
31. Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans – Previous Rank 29
32. Desmond Ridder – Atlanta Falcons – Previous Rank 30
33. Jacoby Brisset – Washington Commanders – Previous Rank NR
34. Sam Darnold – San Francisco 49ers – Previous Rank 27
35. Clayton Tune – Arizona Cardinals – Previous Rank 31
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Alexander Jonesi. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.