While the transition from college to the NFL is a difficult one, certain players tend to find their footing in the second half of their rookie season, and truly excel in their 2nd year. Others, unfortunately, never seem to catch up to the speed of the NFL and, for fantasy purposes, become mostly irrelevant. It could be through injury, situation, or they were simply overvalued to begin with in their draft years. Here’s a list of 2nd year players that you should avoid drafting at their current ADP.
Note – While I usually prefer to add at least 1 or 2 players from each of the key positions, both Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett are being drafted so low that they aren’t even worth getting into at this point, so no quarterbacks make the list.
Dameon Pierce (RB) – Houston Texans – ADP 46
You could argue that Pierce broke out in his rookie season prior to being placed in IR with an ankle injury, but I expect a big regression going into his second year in the league. He was the benefactor of an unprecedented amount of responsibility in regards to the Houston Texans run game. He was being given the ball on a overinflated percentage of the teams runs last season, and had a stretch where he was on the field for over 75% of offensive snaps.
That kind of volume just isn’t sustainable in the NFL. The Texans recognized that, and signed Devin Singletary to come in and take some of the workload off of Pierce. Singletary isn’t a game changing back, but he’s efficient enough to immediately take some of the workload off Pierce’s plate. Pierce will still have his games where he performs above expectations, but he’s currently being taken in the back part of the 3rd round. There are much more talented players available at that point to help shore up your roster.
Brian Robinson (RB) – Washington Commanders – ADP 93
Robinson was an inspiring story working his way back after being shot last summer in an attempted carjacking. But from a fantasy perspective, expectations should be tempered. Robinson had some nice games as a rookie, and did eventually take over the starting role from Antonio Gibson, but his 3.9 yards per carry average over his career isn’t exactly inspiring.
New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has a reputation from his time in Kansas City for using his running backs in the passing game, an area that Robinson truly struggles in. It feels like this is finally the season where Antonio Gibson will actually be utilized in the pass game. Gibson excelled in that area during his time in college, but for some inexplicable reason Ron Riviera has tried to put a round peg into a square hole by making him a 3 down grinder.
At the beginning of the week, Robinson was getting drafted a round or 2 ahead of Gibson on average. But that trend seems to be slowly changing with Gibson’s ADP moving up to the late 80’s. At this point in the draft you’re looking for players that come with a high upside. And in the Washington backfield Gibson gives you that potential much more than Robinson does.
Tyler Allgeier (RB) – Atlanta Falcons – ADP 132
In 2022, Tyler Allgeier was one of those rare late round picks who was talked up in the preseason, and actually lived up to the hype. He was a waiver wire pickup in most leagues, and finished the year with 1,035 yards averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Unfortunately he was also a victim of working alongside a touchdown vulture, getting into the endzone only 3 times compared to Cordarrelle Patterson’s 8.
The Atlanta Falcons are fully invested in being one of the most dominant run teams, and Allgeier could have easily been considered to be a top 15 back this coming season – until the Falcons took Bijan Robinson in the draft. Robinson is a true 3 down back who can do everything on the field for the Falcons.
Allgeier still has some value if you take Robinson in the 1st, and he could potentially be one of the top handcuffs in the league. His ADP is low enough to take that flier, but using a roster spot on him is essentially betting on Robinson getting hurt. The team has shown they trust Patterson more in the red zone, so as long as Robinson is on the field, they don’t have much of a role for Allgeier.
#Falcons LB Kaden Elliss breaks up the pass to RB Tyler Allgeier pic.twitter.com/xrOANazYOQ
— Kevin Knight (@FalcoholicKevin) August 1, 2023
Isiah Pacheco (RB) – Kansas City Chiefs – ADP 73
I think Pacheco will have a perfectly fine season, but I don’t buy into him as a 6th round pick in redraft leagues. The Chiefs haven’t produced a high end running back for years now, because they simply don’t need to. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will continue to be elite, and the team has depth with Clyde Edwards-Helaire to split running reps with Pacheco.
They also really like Jerrick McKinnon as a pass catcher out of the backfield, who will definitely be keeping Pacheco off the field in certain situations. He’s the type of player who if you invest too much capital in him at the draft, you can’t justify cutting if he underperforms. But you also cannot start him on a weekly basis if you hope to win a championship in 2023. Better to avoid Pacheco all together.
Skyy Moore (WR) – Kansas City Chiefs – ADP 143
Like Pacheco, Moore’s ceiling is automatically lower due to how spread out the Chiefs offense is outside of Kelce. His ADP is the lowest of anyone on this list, but I wanted to include him because he’s currently being drafted as the top Chiefs wide receiver after Toney was injured. Moore wasn’t involved at all in the offense last season and while he should have a leg up in training camp this year, he’s yet to impress.
In fact, it looks like Justyn Ross is making waves despite his lengthy injury history causing him to go undrafted and to this point being unable to make a single appearance in the NFL. The entire Chiefs receiving corps is difficult to predict. Marques Valdes-Scantling probably has one of the wide receiver positions locked up. But with Ross stepping up, Rashee Rice being integrated into the offense, and Toney being a wildcard, banking on Moore outplaying his ADP isn’t worth the late round flier. Reid will more than likely rotate these guys in and out of the lineup, and I just don’t think the ceiling is high enough for Moore to be the one you bank on stepping up.
Drake London (WR) – Atlanta Falcons – ADP 60
Drake London had an up and down rookie season, and frankly I don’t see that changing in 2023. There’s so much more value in the 5th round than a second year receiver who’s stuck on an offense that will run 75% of the time with a sophomore quarterback who might not make it through the season as a starter.
Desmond Ridder’s accuracy is below average, and early footage from camp has him missing his targets on a regular basis. The Falcons will again live or die behind the run, leaving London’s sophomore season in line to be another disappointment.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Atlanta Falcons. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.