The NFL draft is one of the most exciting offseason days on the entire sports calendar. As we approach this year’s iteration, uncertainty surrounds this year’s draft more than usual. The 2023 draft class is weaker than fans have been used to, making mock drafts more of a dart throw than in the past.
We’ve already had one major trade, as the Carolina Panthers swung a deal with the Chicago Bears to move up to the #1 pick. The franchise believes it’s just a quarterback away from becoming a true contender, and now has their pick of the litter of this year’s impressive but flawed group. The latest reports from NFL experts have begun rumblings that the draft will take an unexpected turn as early as the 2nd pick, as the Houston Texans apparently aren’t enamoured with the incoming crop of QBs, throwing the majority of mock drafts out the window.
The draft is a 3 day affair, and will have major implications on this upcoming season. We’ll try and summarize the biggest storylines heading into the event, so you can sit back and enjoy Roger Goodell awkwardly pretending that he doesn’t mind being booed for another year.
The Basics
Formerly the NFL draft was primarily held at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. But the league has started moving the event around to different locations, most recently being held in Las Vegas. This year’s draft will be held at the iconic Union Station in Kansas City, near the city’s World War 1 Museum and memorial. Coming off of a Super Bowl victory, the Chiefs chose a prime location to host the 3 day event, and will look to amplify their brand by hosting the hundreds of thousands of people who will descend upon the city.
The draft schedule, which will all be broadcasted and likely analyzed to death, occurs over 3 days. The dates and times are as follows.
Thursday April 27th – Round 1 – 8PM (ET)
Friday April 28th – Rounds 2 and 3 – 7PM (ET)
Saturday April 29th – Rounds 4 to 7 – Noon (ET)
Storylines
There are plenty of storylines to choose from in every draft, and this one will be no different.
#1 Pick and Quarterbacks.
Much like everything else in the NFL, the draft will revolve around the quarterbacks. It begins with the 1st overall selection, as new head coach Frank Reich and the staff in Carolina continue to evaluate who will be the franchises next quarterback.
All signs point to the decision coming down to Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud or Alabama’s Bryce Young, although Florida’s Anthony Richardson certainly impressed during the combine. Reich, who struggled in his tenure as head coach in Indianapolis after the unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck, will be looking to select a new franchise signal caller to lead the team to the promised land.
The pressure will be on to make the right choice, and after losing Luck early due to injury concerns, it makes sense that Reich might lean towards the larger, stronger Stroud to try and find a reliable solution as he begins his tenure in Carolina. But Stroud has reportedly been dropping down draft boards over the past week due to alleged poor testing scores. Will Reich be willing to bank his coaching career on Young, who seems to have the higher potential, but lacks the ideal size that coaches look for in their quarterback?
While it all may be a smokescreen, what seemed like a lock for the Texans to take whichever of the 2 quarterbacks fell to them now seems to be up for debate. With an all world defensive talent in Will Anderson Jr there for the picking and the team having more holes than drafting a quarterback will solve, there’s some sense in the logic of passing up on taking a quarterback who isn’t a lock to be a franchise changer. Or the Texans could be enticing one of the many quarterback needy teams to make a big move to trade up for the 2nd overall pick.
Speaking of quarterback needy teams, there are quite a few who have the draft capital to either make a trade up or select one at their current draft position.
The Cardinals have the 3rd overall pick, and after signing Kyler Murray to a massive extension that has yet to kick in, they look like a prime candidate to trade down and acquire more assets, particularly if Anderson is no longer available.
The Colts slot in at #4 and are in dire need of finding the solution at quarterback after years of trotting out past their prime veterans. The Seahawks just resigned Geno Smith so will probably steer away from the QB position for another season, but would it be shocking if Detroit at #6 takes a Qb that they can develop behind Goff for a season before handing him the starting job as the former Ram inches closer to needing a new deal?
The same can be said for the Raiders who’s faith now relies on the oft injured Jimmy Garrapolo. The Falcons took Desmond Ridder in last year’s draft, but he doesn’t have the pedigree that one of the incoming quarterbacks have if they take one at 8th. The Titans (11th), Patriots (14th) and Commanders (16th) are all teams that have questions surrounding their current starting quarterback and would love one of the top 4 quarterback prospects to fall to the middle of the first round.
While this year’s crop of QBs doesn’t seem to have the top end talent we have been treated to in previous years, there are some intriguing pieces that can certainly be franchise changers if they land with the right organization.
Will Trade Season Officially Begin?
The NFL draft is always chock full of teams swapping picks to grab a player they’re particularly interested in, and this year’s draft doesn’t seem to be an exception. However, this time around there seems to be more chatter regarding big name players becoming available as teams work to solidify their rosters.
With the Aaron Rodgers trade to the Jets finally complete, the market for established quarterbacks is quite thin. The Baltimore Ravens are still at a standstill in contract negotiations with former MVP Lamar Jackson after using the non-exclusive franchise tag. While he was reportedly looking for a deal that included the same amount of guaranteed money that Deshaun Watson received from Cleveland, that contract is looking more and more like an outlier, and the Ravens don’t seem willing to budge on that point.
Jackson has expressed excitement about working with newly signed wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr, so there’s renewed hope that a deal could get done in Baltimore. The Ravens are a franchise that always believes they’re contenders, so would they be willing to go through this season’s draft without certainty at the game’s most important position?
There are also some elite running backs that could be looking at a new home come the start of the season. Austin Ekeler has been given permission by the Chargers to seek out a trade after not being able to agree to terms on a new contract. The organization said it would be a “worst case scenario” to bring Ekeler back to play out the final year of his contract without either agreeing to an extension or recouping some assets via trade.
In Minnesota, the Vikings re-signed free agent Alexander Mattison to a 2 year deal despite starter Dalvin Cook having one more year left on his deal with the team. While the club is open to bringing back Cook, it’s unlikely to be at his current $11 Million price tag. The Miami Dolphins are the latest team that seems to be kicking the tires on a potential trade as they continue to try and load up on offensive weapons. If the Vikings select a back in the first 3 rounds look for Cook to be quickly moved on day 3 of the draft, if not just outright released.
The Arizona Cardinals are likely to be one of the more active teams on the trade market, as not only are they a prime trade back candidate, but they must also decide what to do with star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and his $19.45 million base salary for this coming season. While they wait for their franchise quarterback’s knee to heal, they’ll likely take this year to retool their flawed roster, and paying Hopkins in what will likely be a lost season doesn’t make sense for the team.
The biggest hangup for a Hopkins deal is that interested teams are asking the Cardinals to retain salary, which would negate most of the reason for the Cardinals making the trade in the first place. While Hopkins is one of the most talented receivers in the league his age, injury history and remaining 2 years left on his contract make him a difficult piece to move.
The Titans could also be active, as they have to decide what to do with their starting duo of quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry who are both set to enter the final years of their respective contracts. The team has put together some impressive regular seasons but have yet to get over the hump in the playoffs and the organization may look at the roster and decide that it’s time for a rebuild if they get an offer that is even remotely intriguing.
That’s just on the offensive side of the ball. Star safety Buddah Baker (Cardinals) and all-pro linebacker Devin White (Buccaneers) have also both reportedly asked for a trade. While the teams have said they aren’t interested in moving either player, they’re clearly not interested in being part of a long term rebuild, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the clubs get blown away by a contender looking to add a final piece.
Schools with the most 1st overall picks in the NFL Draft⭐️ pic.twitter.com/78fnTKiQ4o
— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 26, 2023
How far will Jalen Carter Fall?
Viewed as one of the top overall players in this year’s draft, the former Georgia defensive tackle did himself no favours this offseason after his involvement in a car accident that resulted in the death of a former teammate and recruiter.
While he received a small fine and probation after pleading no contest to misdemeanor charges, teams have been vocally questioning his decision making as well as his commitment to football. Carter didn’t complete his pro day workouts, and has had questionable weight fluctuations between testing days. The player on the field is certainly worthy of a top 3 selection, as he dominated the line of scrimmage at the university level, and shows the type of game changing ability from the interior defensive line that we haven’t seen since Aaron Donald.
He would be a perfect fit at the number 5 pick belonging to Pete Carroll and the Seahawks, but if Carroll decides to pass on the reclamation project it could be a while before there’s a coach/GM combination willing to take the risk on Carter. If he falls into the teens he could end up being one of the all time steals in draft history, assuming he goes to a franchise that will help him mature and grow both on and off the field. In the NFL, talent generally trumps trepidation, so it will be curious to see if that holds true for the talented defensive game wrecker.
When will Bijan Robinson be taken?
Another all world talent that could fall as late as the end of the 1st round is Longhorn star running back Bijan Robinson. Touted as one of the most talented backs to enter the draft in recent memory, the do it all RB will not drop due to his lack of skill or even due to off field issues. His drop will be because he’ll fall victim to the position he plays – a trend that we’ve been seeing in the NFL for the past few years.
Teams no longer value high end running backs as much as they did in the past, and despite the game changing potential Robinson possesses, teams will take reaches on positions they see as having higher value before using their draft capital on a running back. While some executives believe that Robinson going to an established offense that is just looking for that final piece would be terrifying (Eagles at 10th overall immediately come to mind), the fact is that GMs would rather utilize their draft capital elsewhere and sign more veteran backs in a committee.
Getting Robinson for 5 years on a rookie deal would be a game changing move for a franchise that is ready to contend now, so it will be intriguing to see where he ends up over the next couple of days. If teams view Robinson as what he truly is – an elite offensive weapon who can run a full route tree while also single handedly carrying the running game – Robinson could be off the draft boards early on Thursday evening. But recent history has shown that teams are willing to wait at pin their run game on day 2 or even 3 picks.
When will the Canadians go?
Last year marked the 3rd straight year that multiple Canadians were taken in the draft, and this year looks like it will follow suit, with twin brothers likely leading the charge. There were 5 Canadians who were invited to this year’s combine, and if they are all selected it would surpass the previous record of 4 Canadians selected in the same NFL draft class.
Chase (RB) and Sydney Brown (DB) are from London Ontario, and both played key roles last season for Illinois. Chase won the Jon Cornish Trophy recognizing him as the top Canadian in the NCAA, and is a powerhouse grinder who will have to work to carve out a 3-down backup role in the NFL. Sydney, who played all 4 years at Illinois, has elite level speed and plays at a higher valued position than his brother, so he’ll likely be selected earlier than Chase. Sydney is mocked around the end of the 2nd-3rd round, while his brother looks like a solid day 3 pick.
Matt Bergeron (OT) started 39 games over the past 4 years at Syracuse, coming from Victoriaville, Que. Standing at 6’5” and weighing 318 lbs he has the size that will translate nicely to the NFL. However, scouts project him to excel in run-blocking but may have issues with pass blocking at the next level. Look for him to be selected at some point on day 2.
Sidy Sow, a guard from Boromont Que, started at both tackle and guard for Eastern Michigan over the past 4 years. At 6’5” and 323 lbs, Sow ran an impressive 5.07 40 yard dash, so there are certainly a couple GMs out there that will take a flier on that size and athleticism on the final day of the draft.
Edge rusher Tavius Robinson has been rising up draft boards as the draft approaches, as the 6’6” 257lbs pass rushing specialist put together a respectable combine, highlighted by his 4.66 40 yard dash. The Guelph native joined Ole Miss in 2020, and as a full time starter in 2022 tied the FBS for 2nd with 5 forced fumbles and added 7 sacks.
As always, there will be no shortage of stories in this years draft, and that isn’t even getting into how teams view this year’s crop of wide receivers or how teams value the potential elite tight ends who are set to enter the league. The draft is the perfect time for fans to watch as their favourite teams either push their teams to the next level, or ruin the franchises fortunes. Either way, it makes for great headlines.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Marianne O’Leary. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.