UFC 287 Analysis & Predictions

UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya II – 4.8.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya II. This is a massive fight card live from Miami Florida, headlined by a world championship rematch at middleweight. It is shaping up to be one of this year’s best pay-per-view events. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 70-50-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 83-37-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 4-8-2023 at 1am EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Jaqueline Amorim -270 vs Sam Hughes +215

Anthony: Opening the card is a strawweight fight between Sam Hughes and Jaqueline Amorim. This is the UFC debut for Amorim who looks to showcase her grappling here on a huge stage today. She is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt with a laundry list of credentials from IBJJF and her time grappling as a juvenile. The recent transition to MMA has gone well for Amorim who has finished all six of her professional fights. She draws into Sam Hughes who poses a threat of solid striking and overall grit compared to Amorim. However, the divide between these girls’ grappling is immense and I see Amorim setting up a very early submission attempt. Hughes does not defend takedowns well but does quickly and efficiently find her way back upright when grounded. I think the deficiencies she has shown on the mat make me confident putting some money on the newcomer here today. Specifically a finish by armbar or perhaps triangle is likely once these two get engaged on the mat. If this gets into rounds two and three momentum will begin to sway into Hughes’ favor. Jaqueline Amorim by Round One Submission
Nick: Hughes is fairly well rounded, tough and relatively durable. However, offensively she really doesn’t carry any stand out skills. She’s coming off a convincing decision loss to Piera Rodriguez, a fight in which she was mostly dominated on the mat. She is 7-5 professionally and while she has shown improvement in all facets of her game, it’s tough to expect she’ll ever climb the ranks of 115 lbs. Jaqueline Amorim will be making her UFC debut here. She is 6-0 professionally and the current LFA Strawweight Champion. She is fairly well-rounded, but her greatest strength is certainly her offensive grappling ability as five of her six professional wins have come via submission. The line feels too wide here, but Amorim is the pick. This certainly represents a step up in competition for her here, but Hughes has struggled to stay off her back against less dangerous opponents. Jaqueline Amorim by Round Two Submission

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke -190 vs Steve Garcia +160

Anthony: Next is a featherweight matchup between Steve Garcia and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. I am interested to see what these two are capable of as they currently float outside of relevance in this 145 pound division. Nuerdanbieke has had some varying performances over his fifty fight career but the recent sample has been rather impressive. He primarily elects to grapple in fights given his strong upper body and ability to wrestle. Nuerdanbieke is explosive in his movements and confident in closing distance very quickly. Garcia does well for the most part when it comes to rolling but he will want to keep his feet in this matchup for as long as he can. The boxing of Garcia is crisp and I feel his best chance of winning this fight will be stuffing takedowns and cracking Nuerdanbieke with big shots from in close. I am interested to see how Garcia elects to close the distance against an opponent with quicker reaction time and more overall experience. It is a very close fight but I am leaning the way of Nuerdanbieke. Either man could score a finish here but I favor Shayilan if this does see the scorecards. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke by Decision
Nick: Shayilan is another interesting prospect out of the UFC Performance Institute in China. He’s an extremely aggressive striker, but he’s struggled to find much success against a high level of competition. He has decent grappling ability once the fight hits the mat, but he doesn’t always lean on that part of his game. Garcia is a decent striker with surprising power for his frame. He is far from technical on the feet, but he can eat a punch and keep pushing forward as he does a good job keeping volume on his opponents. He’s coming off an impressive win via KO over a popular up-and-comer in Chase Hooper. However, given his general inconsistencies it isn’t all that surprising to see he’s a considerable underdog in this matchup. If this fight stays standing, Garcia will be very live for the upset. That being said, Nuerdanbieke should have a considerable grappling advantage in this matchup. As long as he chooses to lean on that part of his game I expect he can justify that price tag. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke by Decision

Ignacio Bahamondes -350 vs Trey Ogden +275

Anthony: Ignacio Bahamondes is a sizeable favorite here as he faces Trey Ogden at 160 pounds. This is a bout constructed on short notice as both men heard news of their opponent’s dropping out in this past month. Ogden had cut weight for a bout with Manuel Torres in San Antonio before news of the cancellation broke. I do not expect a second weight cut to heavily affect him but it is worth noting a compromised gas tank is possible, especially if Ogden will be reliant on a grappling heavy approach. He tends to do his best work on the mat and facing a talented striker like Bahamondes sure makes the game plan appear abundantly clear. I really like what Bahamondes has displayed thus far in the UFC, moving forward with tremendous pressure and throwing out a solid volume of very diverse attacks. He is a much better kickboxer than Ogden and I think we see that become very apparent as this bout rages on. Ogden will want to find an early shot here early but Bahamondes is very well versed on the mat and likely the better athlete in every position. He is a large favorite benefit from the advantage of age, size and technical skill. I am confident in him getting the win here today. Ignacio Bahamondes by Round Three KO
Nick: Bahamondes has what many would describe as a loose and free striking style. He’s very light on his feet and does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He’s shown an ability to KO his opponents both at range and in the clinch. He has surprising power for his frame, but he often leaves his head on the center-line and as a result he tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. Trey Ogden is coming off an impressive win as a +300 underdog over Daniel Zellhuber. He’s 16-5 overall and 1-1 in the UFC. At 33-years old it seems unlikely he’ll have an extensive UFC career, but he’s well rounded and a good test for a lot of prospects in a loaded 155 lb division. Ogden is decent on the feet, but he absorbs more strikes than he lands in exchanges. He’s fairly durable as he’s never been KO’d professionally, but I expect he’ll be considerably outclassed here if he can’t keep this fight on the mat. Given Bahomondes’ length and superior athleticism, I expect he can keep this fight at striking range where he should be able to pick Ogden apart at range. The line does feel wide as Bahamondes is still developing as a prospect, but he’s certainly the side here. Ignacio Bahamondes by Round Two KO

Lupita Godinez -285 vs Cynthia Calvillo +225

Anthony: The early prelims end with a women’s strawweight fight between Lupita Godinez and Cynthia Calvillo. It appears Calvillo is looking to extend her career a bit further, cutting down to 115 pounds today. After going on an 0-4 skid at flyweight I think a change like this was necessary. Calvillo only wins fights by effectively wrestling and as her strength begins to fade it is becoming much more difficult to execute against flyweights. Godinez is however just as talented a grappler as Calvillo. I expect Loopy to wrestle harder than Calvillo and win the scramble to most positions here today. Neither is very intimidating on the feet but Godinez does throw with higher volume and a more intense pace. I had been high on Godinez heading into her last bout before a split decision loss to Angela Hill. I find her a much better fighter compared to Calvillo at this stage of their careers, but I do hesitate to bet on Godinez again as such a sizable favorite. I will not be wagering much if anything on this one. Lupita Godinez by Decision
Nick: Cavillo was once considered a future top prospect at 125, but she’s now coming off four consecutive losses. She’ll likely be cut from the roster if she falls in this spot. Cavillo finds the majority of her success executing a grappling heavy game plan against smaller and weaker opponents. Lupita Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has certainly come via her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged more than 4.5 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Calvillo does sport a decent 75 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but once she’s on her back she has a lot of trouble working back to her feet. I expect Godinez will be dialed in for this matchup against a fighter in Calvillo who seems to be on her way out of the promotion. This fight is a bit closer than the line suggests, but Godinez is the rightful favorite here. This feels like a matchup between two fighters with similar styles whose careers are headed in opposite directions. Lupita Godinez by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Karl Williams -435 vs Chase Sherman +320

Anthony: Heavyweights are set to fight next with Chase Sherman fighting Karl Williams here on short notice. Originally we had been promised a fun scrap between Sherman and Chris Barnett but due to injury that bout has been canceled. In steps Williams who has fought and won five fights since the start of last year. He is just 7-1 as a professional but has a style suited well for this division, utilizing a high volume of takedowns and good top pressure on grounded opponents. He accrued ten minutes of control time against Lukasz Brzeski in his last fight, landing eight of thirteen takedown attempts. Sherman has always struggled with his defensive grappling and I think this is a nightmare matchup for him. He is 1-5 since the start of 2021 with the only victory coming against Jared Vanderaa. It is also worth mentioning Vanderaa had the skill set to outgrapple Sherman but lacked the intelligence to attempt a single shot. That will not be an issue for Williams who will surely be in on a leg in the very first round. I expect him to smush Sherman, or takedown rinse repeat. Karl Williams by Decision
Nick: Chase Sherman is a relatively dangerous striker and he usually comes out aggressive in most of his fights. His cardio and grappling have proven to be major weaknesses for him at the top level, but he seems re-energized and focused heading into this matchup. He was originally scheduled to take on Chris Barnett in this spot, but he’ll be facing a replacement opponent in Karl Williams who will be taking this fight on just one-week’s notice. Karl Williams is coming off a win in his UFC debut over Łukasz Brzeski. A fight in which he leaded on a grappling heavily gameplan to control position and win convincingly on the scorecards. Williams is 8-1 professionally. He carries decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs many of his strikes and he certainly seems raw in most of his abilities when you watch him on film. Even taking this fight on short notice, it is understandable that Williams is the favorite here. He’s a talented grappler and Sherman has had trouble staying on his feet and getting back to his feet once he is grounded. Given the low-level nature of this matchup, Sherman could be worth a bet as the underdog. Regardless, Williams has a very clear path to victory via his wrestling and off that alone he deserves to be favored here. He should be able to work Sherman to the mat and find a KO via ground-and-pound. Karl Williams by Round Three KO

Joe Pyfer -190 vs Gerald Meerschaert +155

Anthony: This is a good matchup at middleweight between Joe Pyfer and Gerald Meerschaert. We have a clash of styles here with Pyfer doing his best work striking and Meerschaert looking to take fights to the mat. Meerschaert is once again drawing into a prospect that he could very certainly turn back as he shares the cage with a real grizzled veteran for the first time. Pyfer seems to have a good head on his shoulders but one would predict him to have some deficiencies grappling given just how clean his hands look. I do not think Meerschaert overwhelms him or surprises him with much here, but I do think GM3 is very live to lock up a submission by executing his typical gameplan. Although I had been very tempted to bet Meershaert, I will not be doing so at +155. Pyfer is the much quicker fighter, posing the much more significant threat when these two are on the feet. Meerschaert is live but Pyfer has the tools to keep distance and pick him apart quite comfortably. This line should probably be wider than where it is closing. Joe Pyfer by Round Two KO
Nick: Joe Pyfer fights out of an excellent camp in Renzo Gracie Philadelphia and he seems to be a personality the UFC hopes to feature and build moving forward. Pyfer is well-rounded, but his power certainly seems to be his greatest attribute. He is coming off an impressive KO win over Alen Amedovski in his UFC debut, and seven of his ten professional wins have come via KO. Meerschaert is well-rounded, but most of his professional wins have come via submission. He’s a highly skilled BJJ black belt with a seemingly endless arsenal of attacks on the ground. As good as Meerschaert is on the mat, he sometimes has trouble getting the fight there. His takedown entries leave a lot to be desired and his wrestling ability is questionable at best. This fight should essentially come down to whether or not Meerscaert can take Pyfer down and keep him there. If he can’t, he’s going to be significantly outclassed on the feet. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll back the favorite here. He’ll be in trouble if he can’t take Meerschaert out early, but I expect he will be the more powerful and explosive striker. Joe Pyfer by Round One KO

Luana Pinheiro -165 vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez +135

Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight contest between Michelle Waterson and Luana Pinheiro. It is tough to find an angle on this fight with Pinheiro set to close as the moderate favorite. She is thus far 10-1 as a professional and her most recent showing against Sam Hughes had been impressive enough. I am just not certain she warrants this price tag against an established veteran like Waterson. I was never very impressed by the skill set of Waterson but she had a knack for winning fights nonetheless. High volume striking from long distance tends to win minutes for Waterson while Pinheiro is the sharper and more dangerous striker standing. Waterson also had elected to shoot takedowns in the past for winning positions but now she faces an opponent who seems very comfortable on the mat. The Brazilian has scored seven takedowns of her own in the previous two octagon appearances. She is eight years younger than Waterson and I believe she handles that output just fine here. I am not confident picking Pinheiro but I anticipate her taking control of this fight and getting her hand raised. Luana Pinheiro by Decision
Nick: Luana Pinheiro is 2-0 in the UFC, coming off wins over Sam Hughes and Randa Markos. She is relatively well-rounded. She puts out decent volume on the feet and if she can drag her opponents to the mat she has dangerous offensive grappling ability. Michelle Waterson is a well-rounded fighter who has only lost to the top contenders in this division. She’s decent on the feet, she puts out decent volume, but she often misses her opponents as she throws a lot of strikes when she’s out of range. Waterson just signed a new 8-fight contract which shows the UFC is still interested in seeing her thrive. I’m also encouraged by the recent success of her main training partner, Holly Holm, who dominated a tough out in Yana Santos just two weeks ago. At striking range, I do expect Pinheiro to have her moments. However, I expect Waterson to have a significant wrestling advantage in this matchup which is enough for me to take a shot on her as an underdog. Michelle Waterson-Gomez by Decision

Kelvin Gastelum -135 vs Chris Curtis +110

Anthony: The featured prelim is a middleweight bout between Chris Curtis and Kelvin Gastelum. This was the toughest fight for me to call this week. I think that while Curtis has all the tools to win tonight, Gastelum provides a stylistic matchup that does not play to his strengths. Curtis has done his best work by landing first. He applies forward pressure to his opponents and keeps a steady output that often results in him getting off the cleaner combos. I like how he stays poised in the pocket and his ability to stuff any takedowns shot on him. Gastelum may be on a 1-5 losing streak but he has competed against a much higher level of competition. His crisp boxing and granite chin make me very nervous to fade him as the slight favorite. I believe Gastelum can hit harder than Curtis and if these two are going to stand upright and box, he seems likely to land with more technical skill than Curtis does. The plus number has me settled on Curtis for my final prediction but this is one of my least confident picks on tonight’s card. Chris Curtis by Decision
Nick: This should be a fun matchup as both fighters are primarily strikers, and both guys are more than happy to stand in the pocket and swing.In spite of his recent struggles, Gastelum is still widely considered a contender in this shallow division. He hasn’t been all that impressive recently, but there is no denying he has shown flashes of greatness in the past. His war with card headliner, Israel Adesanya is considered by many as one of the best fights in the history of the division. Gastelum has surprising hand speed, impressive cardio and durability. Additionally, his boxing is undeniably at a tremendously high level. Curtis is primarily a counter-striker with a tight guard defensively and power in both hands. He has an excellent chin, but the major key for him to win here will be if he can force Gastelum to fight his type of fight. Curtis is at his best when he’s in close boxing range. Gastelum is the better striker at a distance, but I also expect Gastelum can find takedowns here if he needs to. It’s definitely notable that Gastelum has never been KO’d before as many of Curtis’ wins have come inside the distance. This could go either way, but I feel like Gastelum has more paths to victory. Kelvin Gastelum by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Raul Rosas Jr -240 vs Christian Rodriguez +190

Anthony: The main card opens with a bantamweight fight between Raul Rosas Jr and Christian Rodriguez. The only weight miss yesterday was Rodriguez who came in one pound over the limit. He certainly had a tougher weight cut than the 18 year old Rosas who has no trouble at all making 135 pounds. The young phenom remains undefeated as a professional but still rather green in his overall development as a martial artist. The grappling of Rosas is very high level though, offering slick back takes and very high level jiu jitsu for somebody his age. The takedown entries are solid and he has good awareness on the feet to both stay defensively sound and set up his own offense moving forward. Rodriguez has very good boxing, mixing strikes very fluidly to the body and head of opponents. He poses a tough test for Rosas in the stand up department but on the mat I see this being a rather one-sided affair. It seems matchmakers understand what they have here with Rosas and CeeRod seems like a favorable draw. His best chance of winning is early in this fight but I would not be surprised to see Rodriguez extend him and make this a little dirty. Raul Rosas Jr by Round Two Submission
Nick: Rauld Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC. He’s coming off a first round submission win in his UFC debut over Jay Perrin, but Perrin is only a borderline UFC level opponent. Rosas’ greatest skill is certainly his advanced BJJ, as five of his seven professional wins have come via submission. Christian Rodriguez is certainly going to be the toughest test for Rosas to date. Rodriguez is primarily a striker. He’s capable of utilizing a grappling heavy gameplan in certain matchups, but he seems most comfortable exchanging on the feet. Has had decent BJJ both offensively and defensively, which is going to be vital for him here against a talented grappler in Rosas. The line certainly feels too wide here and Rodriguez should have moments on the feet. However, I do feel most of this fight takes place on the mat where Rosas should be able to pull away. A tough one to call, but I’ll cautiously back the favorite here. This isn’t the type of fight where I’d recommend a heavy investment. Raul Rosas Jr by Decision

Kevin Holland -250 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio +200

Anthony: Next is a fight at welterweight between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio. This is a fun scrap likely to be contested on the feet between these two strikers. Fans are getting treated to a lot of great action on the main card and Holland is one fighter that usually delivers. He has been very active the past several years and despite now suffering two losses in a row, he has been falling to the top guys at 170 and middleweight. Holland has the advantage of youth and speed on Ponzinibbio, doing the far better job avoiding shots and rolling with the punches he does take. Holland also benefits from an eight-inch edge in reach, likely to play a large factor in keeping Ponzinibbio muted on offense. The best work Ponzi does is in boxing range, landing combinations with significant power behind them. He rallied to beat Alex Morono in his last time out and I really view him as a live underdog here at +200. It will just be a challenge for Ponzinibbio to close distance effectively. I am tempted to take a shot on him but it feels his only chance is landing the knockout. Over fifteen minutes one would think Holland could double his output if neither man is knocked down first. Kevin Holland by Round Two KO
Nick: Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a black belt under Travis Lutter. He’s in a favorable matchup here against another striker in Santiago Ponzinibbio. Ponzinibbio was the class of this division before he was forced to miss more than two years with an extensive list of injuries. He is coming off a solid win via KO over Alex Morono, but prior to that he lost three of his last four matchups and there is really no denying he is no longer as dangerous as he was in his prime. I expect this fight to mostly take place at striking range where Holland’s athleticism should shine through. I’m not loving the price, but I expect he’ll get back in the win column here. Kevin Holland by Round Two KO

Adrian Yanez -190 vs Rob Font +155

Anthony: The featured bout is a bantamweight contest between Adrian Yanez and Rob Font. This is surely a contender for Fight of the Night based on the high volume style of both men. Fans are in for a treat seeing two of the division’s best pure boxers standing and exchanging on the front foot. Yanez is 5-0 in the promotion and quickly becoming one of my favorites to watch. Font provides a great step up in competition as Yanez’ fast hands and precision striking really overwhelmed everyone in his path thus far. Against a more durable Font it will be interesting to see how Yanez approaches these exchanges, as he usually swarms his opponent as soon as he sees they are hurt. I lean his way because Font has been getting clipped a bit lately, succumbing to five total knockdowns in his recent bouts with Jose Aldo and Chito Vera. Font will land at a higher overall clip and likely win more minutes than Yanez here, I just expect fewer big actions. While Yanez can land huge attacks with his kicks and hands, Font is more reliant on breaking down opponents, throwing out more than 300 strikes in each of his last three bouts. I’ll be sweating if this is the barnburner that many predict, but Yanez should have a few opportunities to find himself a stoppage. This is a fight that can elevate him to a much higher status in front of this crowd in particular. I like his confidence heading into the weekend, facing an opponent in Font who has lost two fights in a row. Adrian Yanez by Round Two KO
Nick: Yanez is a very technical boxer who throws sharp and effective combos better than many of the more experienced fighters in this division. He does a good job using combos to set up his power shots, and his advanced boxing instincts at a young age have a lot of people already comparing him to Jorge Masvidal. Similar to Masvidal, he does a good job throwing feints and leading his opponents into traps. All of the strikes he throws are meaningful. Font is a very skilled boxer with a solid overall game. He’s had a lot of success in the UFC outclassing opponents on the feet utilizing nearly flawless footwork and a refined traditional boxing style. Font is likely to throw more volume here, he has an outstanding jab and he’s going to look like the cleaner boxer early. However, as this fight wears on I fully expect Yanez to make things close. Font is coming off an ugly loss via decision to Marlon Vera, a fight in which he out-landed Very but ate massive shots that nearly KO’d him multiple times in the later rounds. Coming off that loss, I actually expect Font to mix in his wrestling here which should help him win minutes and stay out of danger. This is a very tough fight to call and one I could certainly see going either way. However, I prefer the value and experience advantage of the underdog in this one. Rob Font by Decision

Gilbert Burns -450 vs Jorge Masvidal +330

Anthony: The co-main event has Gilbert Burns set to face Jorge Masvidal at welterweight. This is a huge matchup not only for championship relevancy of both men, but also for Masvidal fighting at home in the 305. The last time the UFC held an event in Miami was 2003, a show Masvidal attended as a fan one year before making his professional debut. He has always represented Miami-Dade and this would be a career defining moment to secure a victory here. Since fighting Nate Diaz in 2019, Masvidal has not been very competitive inside of the octagon. He is on a three fight losing skid, most recently being dominated by the pressure and grappling of his foe Colby Covington. Burns’ elite jiu jitsu makes him a very tough challenge stylistically for Masvidal. With just three rounds to work it will be crucial for Masvidal to stuff early takedowns and land his own offense on the inbetweens. While Burns has been known for getting into brawls before, one would expect him to fight intelligently here in one of his biggest opportunities to date. He is going to look the part of a -450 favorite if successful getting Jorge to the mat. I think these odds are wide and Masvidal is always a threat to find himself a flash knockout. I just believe his chances are growing slimmer with each year that passes. He is not improving at this age and after another hectic fight week, I do not feel like taking a risk in backing him. Jorge will have a few moments in this one, but ultimately I think Burns wins it. Gilbert Burns by Decision
Nick: Burns is an extremely talented grappler with outstanding BJJ ability. His striking continues to improve every time we see him fight, but he is looking to ground his opponents in most of his matchups. He has nine professional wins via submission and seven via KO. He is most recently coming off an impressive win over Neil Magny via first round arm triangle. Masvidal is a gifted striker with high-level boxing ability both offensively and defensively. He does an excellent job using feints to pull his opponents into his strikes. He’s a quick thinker in the cage, very cerebral, and he generally does a good job staying out of serious danger. Masvidal is absolutely the better striker out of the two in this matchup, but Burns is a dramatically better grappler. I don’t really think Burns is anywhere near Masvidal in terms of offensive striking, but he doesn’t really need to be in this spot. Masvidal will find his shots, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep Burns from ultimately pressuring him up against the cage and down to the mat where he’ll be vulnerable. The line feels too wide, but Burns is the pick. I’m also more comfortable backing Burns here as Masvidal had mentioned he may retire if he can’t secure a win here. Gilbert Burns by Round Three Submission

Israel Adesanya -140 vs Alex Pereira +115

Anthony: The card will conclude with the middleweight championship bout between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. This fight is an immediate rematch of a scrap that Pereira won last November, marking his third victory over Adesanya in combat sports. While both are elite kickboxers, opponents have really struggled to survive when hit cleanly by Pereira. It truly only takes one shot from Pereira as was the case when he knocked out Adesanya at Madison Square Garden. The former champion had been fighting a very clean fight, touching Pereiera hard and taking a clear lead with his more diverse skill set. He had been beating Pereira in each of their prior meetings too, but in the boxing range we see Poatan stay composed and let his powerful hooks fly. I believe the only way Adesanya wins this rematch is by closing the distance on Pereira and not electing to take a defensive approach for five full rounds. While Adesanya is a master of striking while moving backwards, this provides Pereira an opportunity to find his range and better understand the threat coming from both stances. Focusing more on forward and lateral movement allows Adesanya to get off a higher rate of strikes than what he has thrown previously. It is a minor adjustment I’d like to see on the feet as I believe Adesanya has proven to already be the more technical striker. He landed 53 percent of his significant strike attempts against Pereira last time out. Adesanya also secured four takedowns and seven minutes of control time in that meeting. Utilizing his wrestling more in this bout is also an excellent option as Pereira proved to be a bit lackluster in terms of his defensive grappling. While Pereira is capable of working back to his feet, he provides little threat to Adesanya when placed onto the mat. More prolonged periods of grappling also give Adesanya some reprieve from the high number of leg kicks Pereira will throw. It feels like this is perceived to be an uphill battle for Adesanya but these two are very evenly matched. He has dominated a majority of his ten rounds spent fighting Pereira. There is value given the current odds and I love seeing so many fighters and media members dismissing his chances. I’m expecting a win via ground and pound or an emphatic finish on the feet. And New. Israel Adesanya by Round Two KO
Nick: This fight represents a rematch of a fight that took place back in November of 2022. Alex Pereira, the current champion, carries KO power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on his feet. He has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a major hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixiera so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. Adesanya has established himself as a star in the sport and he’s getting the rematch here on the back of an extremely impressive title reign. In most of his fights, we see Adesanya pick his opponents apart at range on the feet. He’s a gifted kickboxer with outstanding accuracy. He doesn’t carry massive power, but he relies on timely combinations to overwhelm his opponents and when he does he’s capable of finishing a fight inside the distance. Adesanya does an excellent job throwing feints to bait his opponents into counters. The last time these two fought he was decisively up on the scorecards. He is the better ‘minute winner’ in this matchup and for that reason I’ll back him once again here as Pereira’s only path to victory likely comes by knockout. This is by no means a confident play, but I expect Adesanya to mix in his grappling here as he finally gets past Pereira and reclaims his title. And New. Israel Adesanya by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com