UFC 281 Preview & Betting Guide

UFC 281: Adesanya vs Pereira – 11.12.2022 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 281: Adesanya vs Pereira. Tonight is a massive card at Madison Square Garden with two championship belts on the line. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 282-162-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 280-164-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-11-2022 at 11pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Carlos Ulberg -130 vs Nicolae Negumereanu +110

Anthony: The card opens today with a bout at light heavyweight as Carlos Ulberg takes on Nicolae Negumereanu. Ulberg is the first of four City Kickboxing fighters on this card, joining teammates Brad Riddell, Dan Hooker and Israel Adesanya. He is a very big 205-pound fighter with a lot of power and hand speed. The advantage for Ulberg lies in his very diverse striking arsenal developed through kickboxing. I like how light Ulberg stays on his feet and Negumereanu will have a tough time keeping up standing as Ulberg gets him biting on feints and eating counters. Negumeranu is a solid pressure fighter with heavy hands and good control on the cage. He could find success grappling here this evening, but if forced to stand I see him eating too many clean shots from Ulberg to stay competitive. He has a hell of a chin but we have really yet to see him tested against someone this technically skilled. The win over Tafon Nchukwi showed just how high the ceiling is for Black Jag. I love him here at near pick em odds. Carlos Ulberg by Decision
Nick: Carlos Ulberg does a good job mixing in feints to trap his opponents. He’s a decorated kickboxer with knockout power in all of his limbs, but he sometimes leaves himself open to take damage in exchanges. He trains with City Kickboxing along with card-headliner Israel Adesanya under Eugene Bareman. He’s coming off the biggest win of his MMA career, a first round KO of Tafon Nchukwi. He has a lot going for him in this fight, but there is no denying this represents a considerable step up in competition. Negumereneau is on a four fight win streak under the UFC banner. He finds most of his success keeping a high pace and consistent pressure on his opponents. He has shown an excellent chin, a decent jab, and underrated wrestling ability. He hasn’t relied much on his grappling at the UFC level, but he would be wise to lean on that part of his game here against a dangerous striker in Ulberg. This is a difficult matchup to call as Negumereneau has never been finished professionally. Ulberg should have a considerable advantage here in terms of technical striking, but his cardio could become an issue if he can’t find a finish. Negumerenu has some grappling upside here as well, but Ulberg has shown solid takedown defense. A tough one to call, but I see Ulberg as the rightful favorite. He’s simply the better technical striker which should be enough to get it done. Carlos Ulberg by Decision

Montel Jackson -215 vs Julio Arce +175

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Julio Arce and Montel Jackson. It will be interesting to see the clash between these two as I have struggled to get a read on Jackson thus far despite having seven UFC fights. He closed -650 in the previous two bouts and absolutely steamrolled JP Buys last September. A year layoff is not the most concerning of things but against a high volume fighter like Arce it could spell trouble. Knowing the style that each of these men fight I expect it to be a very good showing for the betting underdog early. Arce will land at a higher clip than Jackson and do better work in close range changing targets than his taller foe is able. However, with Jackson it only takes one punch to change a fight and with the power being returned, Arce may struggle to get off as much offense as he is accustomed. Jackson has displayed great wrestling chops as well, but this does not feel like a fight that hits the mat given Arce’s near perfect takedown defense. I would like this closer to a coin flip and for that reason think Arce is the value side here today. Do not rush to the window to bet him against such a dangerous foe but there is clear value on that side as the line currently sits. Julio Arce by Decision
Nick: Montel Jackson is good pretty much everywhere. He’s primarily a striker with surprising power for a bantamweight, coming off back-to-back wins over JP Buys and Jesse Strader. As good as he’s looked lately, Jackson has been finding most of his success against lower-level talent. He was once a highly regarded prospect, but it’s hard not to feel he’s developing much slower than expected. Arce is very quick in exchanges. He has impressive technical ability on the feet and he defends an impressive 69 percent of the strikes thrown against him. He has notable Wins over the likes of Dan Ige and Julian Erosa. He’s coming off a solid decision win over Daniel Santos. Arce works well behind his jab. He lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute. His durability is a concern in matchups like this one, but Jackson’s lack of volume should allow Arce to mostly dictate the pace. As good as Jackson is on the feet, he averages more than four takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. His clearest path to victory may be to lean on his wrestling, but Arce has an outstanding 94 percent takedown defense. I could see this one going either way, but the value is clearly on Arce here. He should lead on volume and he’s the better striker defensively. I expect he’ll keep this fight standing and pull away on the scorecards in the later rounds. Julio Arce by Decision

Seung Woo Choi -180 vs Mike Trizano +145

Anthony: Next is a bout between Seung Woo Choi and Mike Trizano at featherweight. Trizano actually missed the limit at weigh-ins coming in more than a pound heavy. One would think he’d have the crowd support here in New York City but the bigger pop from the audience this week has been for Choi instead. Both enter on 0-2 skids desperate to get back into the win column. Seung Woo Choi is the rightful favorite in my opinion given the advantages he has on the feet. Choi is quick and throws with incredibly high output. The volume he throws should eventually get to Trizano who does not have the best striking defense. While Trizano can occasionally mix it up and grapple that really is not a strength of his. Choi has shown a deficiency when fights hit the mat but this is a favorable matchup that is unlikely to include any real scrambles or takedowns. He is the better technical striker. After seeing Trizano trail striking against Lucas Almeida in June, I do not like his chances of winning here. Seung Woo Choi by Decision
Nick: Seung Woo Choi, a highly regarded prospect out of South Korea, is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his young career. He has surprising power for his frame on the feet, and excellent footwork and head movement defensively. He can be tentative at times, but his athleticism and overall explosiveness is what stands out when you watch him on film. Choi recently shifted camps to Kill Cliff FC. He’s training directly under Henry Hooft, one of the best striking coaches in the sport. Trizano does an excellent job putting pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight moving backwards. Like Choi, he is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Both of these fighters put out decent volume, but Trizano absorbs more than a full significant strike per minute. Trizano should have a slight grappling advantage here, but I’m not sure it’s enough to keep Choi off him consistently. Given the recent shift in camps, I expect we see considerable improvements from Choi here. Additionally, Trizano missed weight for this fight so a difficult cut could compromise his durability. Seung Woo Choi by Round Two KO

Silvana Gomez Juarez -110 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz -110

Anthony: Here we have a fight at women’s strawweight between Silvana Gomez Juarez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. This is not a very high-level matchup with two 37-year-olds squaring off. Kowalkiewicz is not nearly the fighter she once was, losing five of her last six appearances. She may put out a higher output than Juarez in today’s bout but it is also imperative she fades the power coming back from the Argentinian. Juarez has scored a knockdown in each of her previous two fights and has much better overhands than that of Kowalkiewicz. It is without a doubt the worst fight on the card and I am not interested in putting any money on either side. My pick is Silvana Gomez Juarez simply because she has the edge in punching power. Silvana Gomez Juarez by Round Two KO
Nick: Gomez Juarez’s only professional losses have come against women that are now on the UFC roster. As impressive as this could be perceived, she really doesn’t have any quality wins to her name. She’s an effective striker with sneaky power for her frame and she’s surprisingly technical. She’s coming off an impressive KO over Na Liang, but Liang is hardly UFC level. Kowalkiewicz is sharp on the feet. She pushes a serious pace and does a good job stringing together effective combinations. She showed improvements in her grappling abilities last time out, submitting Felice Herrig late in the second round. Gomez Juarez will have a power advantage when this fight is standing, but Kowalkiewicz lands nearly three more strikes than she does per minute. This should be a close fight and I expect Juarez to have her moments, but this feels like a favorable stylistic matchup for Kowalkiewicz. Gomez Juarez has just a 37% takedown defense in the UFC. I expect Kowalkiewicz’s chin to hold up until she can mix in her grappling here. I don’t recommend betting either side on this one, but I’ll side with the experience and grappling advantages of the underdog. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Round Three Submission

Ottman Azaitar -160 vs Matt Frevola -130

Anthony: This should be a great scrap at lightweight between Ottman Azaitar and Matt Frevola. Originally this was a matchup slated to take place in January but now we get to see these two clash under the bright lights at MSG. Azaitar is an undefeated fighter with nine wins coming by way of knockout. He continues to develop his skills everywhere but at his core we have a power puncher with a nuclear bomb in either hand. Four of Azaitar’s last five victories have come inside of one round. Frevola is the better technically skilled and more versatile of these two men. He fights here at home in New York and appears to be in incredible shape physically heading into this affair. It will certainly be his fight if able to fade the early power of Azaitar but I am not convinced that will be the case. Frevola has twice before been stopped inside the first minute of a fight. His chin is suspect to me and that is a recipe for disaster against one of the division’s largest power threats. One shot is enough to put Frevola away and I believe that Azaitar will be able to step in and find it before the end of round one. If this fight does go longer it becomes a much closer bout as Azaitar is not accustomed to seeing the judge’s scorecards. Ottman Azaitar by Round One KO
Nick: Ottman Azaitar enters this matchup at an undefeated 13-0, but he has been out of action since July of 2020. Nine of his thirteen professional wins have come via KO. He is very dangerous on the feet with true one-shot knockout power, but he seems fairly one dimensional and his cardio seems to deplete quickly if he can finish his fights early. Frevola is coming off an impressive ground-and-pound KO win over Genaro Valdez. He is fairly well-rounded, but his durability can be considered a weakness as he was KO’d in two of his three professional losses. Frevola isn’t going to want to stand and trade with Azaitar here. Azatair lands nearly five more significant strikes per minute, he’s much more powerful and versatile in his attack. It’s across a small sample size, but Azatair has a 100% takedown defense in the UFC. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Frevola win a grappling heavy decision, but it seems more likely Azaitar can keep this fight standing long enough to find his chin. Ottman Azaitar by Round One KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Andre Petroski -195 vs Wellington Turman +160

Anthony: The preliminary card opens at middleweight with Andre Petroski taking on Wellington Turman. This is a tough fight to call between two big and powerful 185ers. Petroski has looked very solid since joining the UFC but I remain skeptical of his ceiling based on the level of opponent he has faced. Turman is not a great fighter in my opinion but he does enter today coming off back-to-back wins. Petroski has better power on the feet than Turman and more ways to win if this fight hits the mat. While Turman is a very dangerous submission threat, Petroski’s wrestling and knowledge of grappling exchanges should keep him out of danger. I could even see Petroski finding a finish of his own on the mat. I am not interested in getting involved in this fight given the current odds but it is hard to argue that Petroski is the rightful favorite to win. Andre Petroski by Round One KO
Nick: Petroski is a decorated collegiate level wrestler who mostly leans on his powerful grappling to overwhelm and discourage his opponents. He has shown KO power on the regional scene, but he telegraphs his strikes which means in most matchups he’s best suited to lean on his grappling ability. He is coming off a career best win via first round submission over Nick Maximov. All of his professional wins have come via finish. The one real knock on Petroski is his cardio, as it seems he almost always starts to fade late in the second and into the third round. Turman is a decent grappler, but he hasn’t really exhibited much of a Fight IQ. His durability is questionable at best and we haven’t really seen his cardio hold up at this level. He has some power on the feet, but he telegraphs his strikes and defensively he struggles at times as he leaves himself open to counter shots. That being said, there is no denying the fact he has shown considerable improvements since he began training under Glover Teixeira. He looked solid his last time out, winning via arm bar in the second round against a talented grappler in Misha Cirkunov. The line feels too wide here, but I do see Petroski as the rightful favorite. Both of these fighters are flawed, but Petroski’s pressure via wrestling should allow him to cause more damage over the course of three rounds. Andre Petroski by Decision

Erin Blanchfield -450 vs Molly McCann +335

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight bout between Erin Blanchfield and Molly McCann. I have been very impressed by Blanchfield since her debut in the UFC. She is just 23 years old but one of the better offensive wrestlers in the division and a serious threat to contenders inside of the top fifteen. McCann qualifies as such after her recent run of excellence, punctuated by back-to-back wins by spinning elbow. She has the edge in this fight when boxing given her very heavy hands and near endless cardio. The crowd at Madison Square Garden will certainly show her love in the walkout as they have been all week long. She is a very live underdog if capable of keeping this fight on the feet, but Blanchfield surely looks every part of -450 if able to ground the Meatball. McCann has historically struggled to defend takedowns and I worry about Blanchfield spamming shots early and often tonight. It is a rather clear path to victory but nonetheless I think Blanchfield is being overvalued. McCann could make this a brawl and even a close fight that sees the judges earn a victory. Her clearest path is catching and knocking out Blanchfield, and I could see a reckless approach by Molly as such a large underdog. It is not a confident pick but I am backing her here as the clear value side. Molly McCann by Decision
Nick: Erin Blanchfield is coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Miranda Maverick and JJ Aldrich. She’s primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base, decent technical ability on the feet and an extremely high Fight IQ. She’s fairly slow and plodding when she strikes, but she puts out a lot of volume. She does an excellent job using her strikes to set up her takedown attempts and once she’s on top she does a good job using her weight to hold position. She continues to make considerable improvements as she’s only 23-years old, and many have her pegged as a future title challenger at 125 pounds. McCann does a good job working behind her jab. She is an extremely aggressive brawler with crisp boxing ability, decent defensive grappling ability and excellent cardio. She is capable of leaning on her wrestling against inferior grapplers but there’s certainly no denying that she prefers to stand and swing. Her durability and grit are amongst her better qualities. She is coming off back-to-back KO wins over Luana Carolina and Hannah Goldy. As impressive as those performances were, this matchup with Blanchfield represents a considerable step up in competition. The line has gotten a bit out of hand, but Blanchfield is certainly the rightful favorite here. Her grappling ability should give her a massive advantage stylistically and I expect she’ll be the much stronger fighter in this matchup. McCann has just a 46 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Erin Blanchfield by Decision

Dominick Reyes -220 vs Ryan Spann +175

Anthony: Dominick Reyes makes his return to the UFC octagon facing off with Ryan Spann today. These are two powerful light heavyweights and I am expecting a finish here. Spann has had four straight fights end inside of the four-minute mark. His kill or be killed style may work well against Reyes. I like the recent activity from Spann, especially in comparison to the prolonged hiatus Reyes had enjoyed. He should get off to an early start here testing the defensive improvements of the former title challenger. Durability was never a big issue for Reyes but after two brutal knockouts back to back, it certainly scares me off of backing him at a -220. He’s a better technical striker than Spann and should use his size and footwork well to stay on the outside and win from range. Anything can happen when these two clash in the center of the ring but I favor the more skilled and experienced fighter in Reyes. It is a rather steep climb up in competition for the underdog. Dominick Reyes by Round One KO
Nick: Reyes’ career has been on the decline as he’s coming off back-to-back KO losses, but he is still best known for his outstanding performance against one of the greatest of all time in Jon Jones. Reyes did an excellent job striking at range in that title fight. He threw extremely effective counters and he kept things close on the scorecards for the entirety of five rounds. Reyes is athletic and an extremely dangerous striker at range. He’s a competent grappler with decent BJJ and quality overall conditioning. Spann carries a lot of power and sneaky submission ability, but he’s been extremely inconsistent since he debuted with the UFC. His cardio has proven to be an issue in many of his recent fights, but he’s coming off a career best win via first round submission over a tough out in Ion Cutelaba. He’s live for a finish early here but he doesn’t wear damage well and there are questions surrounding his durability as he’s been KO’d in three of his seven professional losses. I expect Spann to look good early on, but Reyes has more paths to victory. I see him either catching Spann’s chin or mixing in his grappling to control position until he can weaponize his cardio towards the end of the fight. Dominick Reyes by Round Two KO

Renato Moicano -130 vs Brad Riddell +105

Anthony: Closing the prelims are lightweights Renato Moicano and Brad Riddell. This is a great clash between high action fighters. The City Kickboxing team put in an amazing camp of work ahead of this card, evident perhaps most in the physique of Riddell. He is very well built for this division and that frame could certainly benefit him here facing an opponent keen on grappling. Moicano is serviceable everywhere though and the striking has vastly improved as he works with American Top Team. He appears to be more durable than Riddell and willing to dig deeper as fights get tough. He is not as skilled in terms of technical kickboxing but I expect he has no issue squaring off with Brad on the feet. The betting odds are fair as I anticipate a back-and-forth fight, but Moicano will look the part of a favorite more if successful getting Riddell to grapple. Every finish Moicano has come by way of submission and Riddell was choked out just four months ago by a mounted guillotine. I am picking him here given a path to victory that is so clear. Renato Moicano by Round Three Submission
Nick: Moicano is an advanced BJJ blackbelt. He has outstanding offensive grappling and he does a good job scrambling into favorable positions against a wide-range of opponents. His greatest strengths are definitely shown on the mat, but he is comfortable striking both in the clinch and in open space. He is coming off a hard fought loss to Rafael dos Anjos in a fight he took on short notice. He was mostly dominated in that spot, but he showed tremendous spirit and durability and won the fifth round on two of the three judges’ scorecards. Riddell is an extremely high-level kickboxer and a former striking coach out of Tiger Muay Thai. He has near perfect footwork, he lands nearly five significant strikes per minute and at 10-3 he continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. He was KO’d by Rafael Fiziev and quickly submitted by another rising prospect in Jalin Turner. Riddell is going to be the better technical striker here, but I’m not confident his 62 percent takedown defense will be enough to keep this fight standing. He has been submitted in two of his three professional losses. I like Moicano to keep things close until he ultimately finds the takedowns needed to advance for a submission. Renato Moicano by Round One Submission

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Dan Hooker -155 vs Claudio Puelles +125

Anthony: The main card opens with a lightweight matchup between Dan Hooker and Claudio Puelles. Hooker is the slight favorite in this bout and I think he is a bit undervalued. He has been there and done that in the UFC’s 155-pound division, fighting at the very top of the food chain for years. On the feet, Hooker has a massive advantage in this fight. He enjoys a four-inch reach advantage and stands much taller than Puelles. I see him winning this fight with ease if he keeps things standing and picks apart his opponent from kickboxing range. Losses to strikers like Dustin Poirier and Arnold Allen certainly give me concerns about Hooker’s durability. His chin has eaten a lot of damage but I do not think Puelles is powerful or precise enough to find a knockdown today. He will rely heavily on his grappling to control Hooker or look for a win by submission yet again. I am worried about armbars and attacks from the kneebar series given the long limbs of Hooker, but he has always been rather reliable in terms of his own jiu jitsu when fights hit the mat. You can’t grapple an opponent who stays out of your grasp and I do not see Puelles effectively closing the distance in this matchup either. Hooker is the pick for me in this matchup between grappler and striker. Dan Hooker by Decision
Nick: Hooker is an extremely talented kickboxer. He has powerful leg kicks that he combines with high volume and speed to wear on his opponents. He’s a master of angles and does a great job finding openings for big elbows, knees and punches. He’s coming off back-to-back losses, both via first round finish. He’ll be looking to get back in the win column here against a talented up-and-comer in Puelles. Puelles recently changed camps to Kill Cliff MMA, one of the best gyms in the sport. He is a dangerous BJJ blackbelt coming off five consecutive wins under the UFC banner. Puelles, while talented, really hasn’t seen any competition as tough as Hooker. Pulles’ BJJ is dangerous, but I expect he’ll struggle to ground Hooker given his lack of wrestling ability. This is a very close matchup and one I could see going either way. However, I expect Hooker to keep this standing long enough to put Puelles away. Hooker has a solid 78 percent takedown defense in spite of the fact he’s faced extremely gifted grapplers in the past. Dan Hooker by Round One KO

Chris Gutierrez -250 vs Frankie Edgar +200

Anthony: Next is a bout at bantamweight between Frankie Edgar and Chris Gutierrez. Here at Madison Square Garden we will see Frankie Edgar’s retirement from the UFC. The native of Toms River, New Jersey has put on sensational fights in the promotion ever since his debut in 2007. He is the former lightweight champion and a real fan favorite for the wars he has put on. It is hard to say Edgar has lost a step here as his career comes to a close, but the previous two appearances did end in horrific knockouts. Edgar responds a bit slower now while defending but still does have a quick twitch on the offensive. He draws Gutierrez, a more traditional striker with a lot of powerful weapons in his arsenal. He is 6-0-1 since joining the promotion and while the competition has been a bit lackluster, he is consistently showing up and getting the job done. Gutierrez prefers to fight at kickboxing range here while Edgar will be looking to take this fight onto the mat. Chris’ 73 percent takedown defense is serviceable and I see him winning a lot of minutes keeping Frankie at the end of his strikes standing up. Another talking point for this fight is the leg kicks of Gutierrez. Specifically, the low calf kick. Gutierrez has finished opponents by chopping apart their lead leg and with Frankie’s constant forward pressure, I expect more hard kicks to land today. At these odds I am tempted to back Edgar but ultimately I see the younger and stronger El Guapo getting his hand raised. Chris Gutierrez by Decision
Nick: Frankie Edgar is one of the more decorated competitors in UFC history. A former champion and title challenger in multiple weight classes, he will undoubtedly be elected to the UFC Hall of Fame as soon as he’s eligible. Mostly known for his excellent cardio and durability, he’s given a lot to both his fans and the company over the years. He’s coming off back-to-back brutal KO losses to Marlon Vera and Cory Sandhagen, so at 41-years old it’s really not surprising to hear this will be the final fight of his storied career. He’s going to be fighting in front of his hometown crowd here in MSG. Gutierrez’s greatest strength is certainly his ability to throw devastating leg kicks. More than 50 percent of the strikes he’s thrown in the UFC are leg kicks and he’s shown he can utilize this attack effectively against a wide range of opponents. He is 6-0-1 across his last seven fights. Edgar’s one real advantage in this matchup is his wrestling. He has the lower and more powerful base compared to Gutierrez, but outside of his chokes/back takes he’s mostly a positional grappler. Gutierrez has a decent 73 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but he really hasn’t faced many wrestlers near Edgar’s level. Edgar’s clearest path to victory here will be to try to keep Gutierrez grounded and ride him out for a decision. This is another really close matchup that could go either way, but I’ll back Edgar in a razor thin decision in his home arena. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gutierrez caught him with something, but he’s not really known as a power puncher. The leg kicks are a major concern, but I’ll take one more shot on Edgar here as he rides off into the sunset. Frankie Edgar by Decision

Dustin Poirier -225 vs Michael Chandler +180

Anthony: The featured bout is an exciting lightweight showdown between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler. Since joining the UFC we have seen nothing but back and forth wars from Chandler as he always promises. It is shaping up to be another dog fight today as he faces Poirier, a very technical brawler. There may be nobody who crashes distance better than Chandler, but it will be very difficult moving in on a more well-rounded opponent than his last. Poirier still has a step on someone like Tony Ferguson when it comes to hand speed and striking defense. His boxing is some of the very best in the UFC. In the pocket I trust the precision and volume of Poirier to beat out Chandler and his more cracking shots. I cannot continue to disrespect Chandler’s resume as he is accruing UFC wins, but it is worth mentioning the list of killers Poirier has shared the cage with by comparison. The only fights he has lost since 2016 came against champions Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov. We have seen Poirier thrive in high paced brawls before against the likes of Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez. This is a style that caters to him, and if Chandler instead elects to shoot for takedowns I trust Poirier in scrambles and jiu jitsu exchanges against the smaller man. I only give Chandler a puncher’s chance and that is not worth the look here at +180. I am betting on Poirier expecting him to outclass Chandler and survive his best attacks in round one. Dustin Poirier by Round Three KO
Nick: Before he began his career in MMA, Chandler was an accomplished NCAA Division I Wrestler. He’s one of the better wrestlers in the lightweight division outside of the champion, Islam Mackhachev. That being said, he’s likely to stand and trade here in a fight fans have pegged as a matchup likely to guarantee violence. Chandler’s fight IQ is more of a weakness than a strength. He’s overly willing to engage in a brawl which has proven to be a detriment to him in the past. He does have a solid wrestling base which he could lean on if he so chooses, but his cardio could be of concern if he does. Poirier has been out of action since he fell as the title challenger to Charles Oliviera back in December of 2021. Prior to that loss, he had as much momentum as he’s ever had in his career – coming off back to back KO wins over superstar, Conor McGregor. Poirier is a crisp boxer with an excellent understanding of angles. He throws fast combinations, he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. We have seen Poirier time and time again start to come alive as a fight wears into the middle and later rounds. He’s going to have a significant striking advantage in this matchup. His chin/durability has been excellent at 155 and if he can keep this fight standing I expect him to pull away. Chandler has enough power to pull off a quick upset, but Poirier is the play here. Dustin Poirier by Round Three KO

Zhang Weili -375 vs Carla Esparza +280

Anthony: The co-main event decides the world strawweight champion as Carla Esparza is challenged by Zhang Weili. It was quite the snooze fest in May when Esparza won the title against Rose Namajunas. The veteran of fifteen UFC fights is savvy, knowing how to win minutes and time her attempts to bring opponents to the mat. There is little in terms of threatening offense for Esparza but a well-roundedness elsewhere makes her a very tough opponent to deal with. Weili has previously held the belt and I think we see a championship performance coming from her here out of the blue corner. Her last appearance came in June when she knocked out Joanna Jedrzejczyk with a clean spinning backfist. She is a far superior athlete to Esparza and a legitimate threat striking. At -375 it seems many agree that she can roll in this fight, lighting up Esparza with her fast hands and volume. Weili has also been training her wrestling the previous few camps at Fight Ready and there have been evident improvements in that area of her game. Over the course of 25 minutes I expect her to put Esparza in numerous tough spots before eventually finding the opportunity to finish. She is a heavy favorite. I feel justified backing in an attempt to reclaim her title. And New. Zhang Weili by Round Two KO
Nick: In many ways, this is a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Weili is one of the best strikers in this division and Esparza is easily one of the better wrestlers. Carla Esparza is the champion at strawweight, but she captured the title in one of the least eventful title fights in the history of the UFC. At her best, Esparza does a good job securing takedowns and keeping position on her opponents. That being said, her striking is far from refined and she doesn’t wear damage very well. Weili is coming off an extremely impressive KO win over Joanna Jędrzejczyk in which she won via spinning backfist in the middle of the second round. She is a former champion, and her only professional losses came to a tough out in Rose Namajunas. Weili has been training under the likes of Henry Cejudo and the Hickman Brothers, some of the better coaches in terms of wrestling in the sport. She’s likely to show considerable improvements in her grappling ability, her Fight IQ, and it’s certainly encouraging to know she’s been training with a higher level of athlete than she was in her home gym in China. Weili is going to have a dramatic technical striking advantage here. She should dominate Esparza whenever this fight is standing and she’s likely strong enough to work back to her feet if Esparza is able to score takedowns. Whether by her own poor decision making or by Weili’s improving sprawl, I don’t really expect Esparza to find the takedowns she needs in this spot. She may be able to ground her once or twice, but I expect most of this fight to stay on the feet where she’s going to be at a dramatic disadvantage. And New. Zhang Weili by Round Two KO

Israel Adesanya -225 vs Alex Pereira +180

Anthony: Our main event could be an all-timer as Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight championship against Alex Pereira. The champion has already accrued six title defenses and thus far disposed of every threat to him at 185 pounds. Pereira is a new threat in the octagon but not an unfamiliar foe as these two crossed paths twice previously inside of the Glory kickboxing ring. Pereira earned both victories against Adesanya. Now in mixed martial arts I expect a different story to be written given the vast divide between experience and versatility of these two. Adesanya has double the pro kickboxing fights Pereira does, and seventeen more bouts in MMA. The Brazilian has been fast tracked to the title because of this stylistic matchup and the rich backstory. He is not very deserving seeing as how he is a mere 6-1 professional. His UFC wins are rather impressive showings, but the level of competition is mediocre. The champion has been fighting the best of the best for more than four years. Adesanya has a much wider arsenal of attacks here compared to Pereira who primarily utilizes his left hook. Both have the ability to blast kicks, knees and elbows but the better precision strikes will be landed by Israel. I am anticipating Adesanya to fight largely from a southpaw stance this fight. The champion is far better defensively than Pereira and really does his best work against forward pressure foes. While Adesanya could likely win this fight easily working his jab from the outside, I see Pereira being one to overcommit to closing the distance therefore leading to more violent exchanges. Pereira needs a knockout as a five round fight likely means and still. While I expect Adesanya to lead the dance while kickboxing, there are plenty of other areas in this fight he has an even wider advantage. Working against the cage and even in wrestling exchanges it should be Adesanya with a decisive edge. My final prediction is that he wins a match largely contested at kickboxing range. Adesanya’s footwork and mobility force Pereira to miss a lot and eventually he succumbs the champion’s punishing counters to both the body and the head. And Still. Israel Adesanya by Round Four KO
Nick: Alex Pereira is a world champion kickboxer, touted as the only man to ever knockout Adesanya, albeit in kickboxing and not MMA. He carries knockout power in all of his limbs. He moves fluidly on his feet. He has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a major hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixiera so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. He’s coming off an impressive KO win over Sean Strickland, and he’s been fast tracked to the title here as he already has a history with the current champion. Adesanya has established himself as a star in the sport and a great Champion at 185. In most of his fights, we see Adesanya pick his opponents apart at range on the feet. He’s a gifted kickboxer with outstanding accuracy. He doesn’t carry massive power, but he relies on timely combinations to overwhelm his opponents and when he does he’s capable of finishing a fight inside the distance. Adesanya does an excellent job throwing feints to bait his opponents into counters. I expect he can do that here against a powerful but also fairly predictable striker in Pereira. His two kickboxing losses with Pereira came in very close bouts, and this time around there is no denying Adesanya has a considerable experience advantage specifically in the octagon. Pereira’s left hook is a potential equalizer here, but I expect Adesanya to work well at distance as he controls the pace of the fight and forces Pereira to come to him. And Still. Israel Adesanya by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_