UFC Vegas 60 Analysis & Betting Guide

UFC Vegas 60: Sandhagen vs Song – 9.17.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 60: Sandhagen vs Song. After a hectic UFC 279 fight week, we’re back at the Apex in Las Vegas for what is the final card of September. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 241-134-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 240-135-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-16-2022 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 4:00pm EST

Nikolas Motta -185 vs Cameron VanCamp +150

Anthony: The card begins today at lightweight with a bout between Nikolas Motta and Cameron VanCamp. It has been more than four years since VanCamp fought at 155 pounds and I worry about his durability. He was finished by choke in his two previous appearances in this division. Motta is a strong and well-built opponent. He should have the advantage over VanCamp in terms of power and defensive awareness here. VanCamp is effective fighting out of either stance but his footwork is a bit sloppy. He is going to be outclassed on the feet in this matchup and likely more reliant on dragging Motta to the mat. Motta will prove he is the better kickboxer and I expect to see VanCamp finished once again here. Motta is the rightful favorite and somebody I am comfortable betting even off a loss. He has a resume that far supersedes that of VanCamp. Nikolas Motta by Round Two KO
Nick: Nikolas Motta is a fairly technical striker who uses all of his limbs well. He doesn’t carry much one-shot power, but he does a good job extending his combinations as a means to hurt his opponents on the feet. He’s coming off an ugly loss via KO to veteran Jim Miller. While the loss to Miller in itself isn’t all that bad of a look, the fact he lost via KO to a guy who is known as a grappler is a bit concerning. Most of Cameron VanCamp’s success has come through his grappling ability. He’s dangerous if he can get his opponent to the mat, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Andre Fialho in his UFC debut. He took that fight on short notice, so it’s tough to really gauge what VanCamp’s ceiling in the UFC will be moving forward. I expect Motta to be the better technical fighter here, but VanCamp should have a considerable size advantage. This is a low-level matchup and a tough one to call, but I like the value of the underdog. I expect he’ll be the better grappler here and he should have a slight cardio advantage as well. Cameron VanCamp by Round Two Submission

Javid Basharat -175 vs Tony Gravely +140

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight with Tony Gravely fighting Javid Basharat. The undefeated Basharat has looked the part so far. He is a very crisp striker who uses his range well and mixes in effective MMA grappling. We have seen tremendous improvement from Basharat as he continues to get more looks stateside from world class gyms. Gravely is a tough test given his wrestling credentials. He is a fighter that applies constant pressure to opponents and has been met with little resistance chaining takedowns together at this lower weight class. We have seen Basharat controlled in some wrestling exchanges before and he certainly becomes much less threatening the moment he is on his back. At these odds I am tempted to play the underdog given his more complete resume and past success executing a game plan. Gravely has also quickly developed his hands to become a much more complete striker. His knockout of Johnny Munoz in just over a minute last June gives me more confidence backing him if this is a stand-up affair. Tony Gravely by Decision
Nick: Javid Basharat is a highly regarded prospect, coming off a solid decision win in his UFC debut over Trevin Jones. He’s extremely well-rounded, with an advanced understanding of footwork in striking exchanges. He fights long for his frame and throws at a fast and aggressive pace. He’s also an effective grappler, especially defensively as he’s shown to be excellent in scrambles. Gravely is a high-pressure grappler with a strong wrestling base and heavy hips. He does a good job finding takedowns against a wide range of opponents, but he mostly grapples to control position rather than hunt for submissions. While there’s no denying he is primarily a grappler, he’s coming off an impressive win via KO over Johnny Munoz Jr. While his striking is far from refined, he carries serious power for a bantamweight and he is not afraid to brawl when he needs to. This is a very close matchup on paper and one I could see going either way. However, I’m siding with Basharat as a favorite. He should be able to keep this fight standing for long enough to win on damage. Javid Basharat by Decision

Gillian Robertson -160 vs Mariya Agapova +130

Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s flyweight between Gillian Robertson and Mariya Agapova. These two trained alongside one another at American Top Team prior to Agapova’s removal from the gym. There seems to be a bit of bad blood here and I think we see an aggressive approach from both. Robertson is best when grappling and searching for submissions of opponents on the mat. I have never been a fan of her style and the 10-7 record as a professional does not make me eager to ever play her as the favorite. Agapova will win striking exchanges at range here thanks to her length and superior kickboxing. I like her explosiveness and although Robertson is a black belt I still think Agapova can survive if and when this bout hits the mat. It is not a confident play at all but Agapova feels like an easy choice at dog money. There should be an evident gap in strength when they clinch. Mariya Agapova by Round Two Submission
Nick: We have an interesting matchup here between a striker and a grappler. Gillian Robertson is outstanding on the mat, with seven of her ten professional wins coming via submission. Maria Agapova is a dangerous and aggressive striker with some of the more dangerous power there is in this division. She has been wildly inconsistent, but when he’s at her best she uses her range well and throws consistently damaging volume. On the mat, Robertson is going to have a considerable technical advantage here over Agapova, but she’s going to need to be careful early as Agapova is most likely going to push the pace and try to swarm her. While it wouldn’t shock me to see Agapova win this via early KO, it seems far more likely Robertson can ground Agapova until she eventually finds a submission. Robertson is one of the more impressive young grapplers in this division and her BJJ is much more dangerous than any of Agapova’s recent opponents. Gillian Robertson by Round One Submission

Daniel Zellhuber -375 vs Trey Ogden +280

Anthony: Next is a lightweight bout with Daniel Zellhuber taking on Trey Ogden. This is the UFC debut for Zellhuber who enters the promotion undefeated. “Golden Boy” has elite striking and generates power great in close exchanges and muay thai clinches. Paired with that is an excellent ranged attack with a high volume of punches and snapping kicks. He is much faster, more explosive and more aggressive than Ogden on the feet. We usually see a very measured approach from Ogden and the team at Glory MMA and Fitness, but this is a bout he cannot rest on his laurels. Zellhuber can take over quickly once he finds a rhythm and Ogden will not stand a chance here if he fails to slow down this fight. He is a live underdog if he can successfully take down Zellhuber and wear on the young man’s gas tank, but I trust the prospect’s cardio and defensive jiu jitsu enough to back him in this spot. It feels like a very winnable fight handpicked for a fighter the UFC has potential to build. Daniel Zellhuber by Round Two KO
Nick: Ogden fights out of an excellent camp via Glory MMA under James Krause. He’s coming off a hard-fought decision loss to Jordan Leavitt in his UFC debut. He gave a decent account of himself in that loss and he’s well-rounded, but there is no denying he hasn’t really been tested extensively against top level competition. His cardio was a major issue in that loss to Leavitt. He can be dangerous early, but he doesn’t pace himself well. He shows defensive lapses in striking exchanges which I expect prove troublesome for him here against Zellhuber. Daniel Zellhuber will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Lucas Almeida. Zellhuber enters this matchup at an undefeated 12-0. He’s a creative striker that uses his range well. He fights well behind his jab, he’s extremely quick getting in and out of exchanges, and his overall grappling ability seems to be quite advanced for a newcomer. I could see Ogden securing takedowns early here, but if he does I don’t expect he’ll be able to keep Zellhuber down. I see Zellhuber as the far more dangerous striker in this matchup, in a fight I expect to primarily take place on the feet. Daniel Zellhuber by Round Two KO

Loma Lookboonmee -215 vs Denise Gomes +175

Anthony: The next preliminary fight is a women’s strawweight contest between Denise Gomes and Loma Lookboonmee. Gomes fought less than a month ago on Dana White’s Contender Series. That win over Rayanne Amanda earned her a UFC contract and evidently a very quick turnaround bout. She is a good striker with crisp boxing and heavy hands, but I am not convinced she is prepared for this caliber competition. Lookboonmee has extremely polished Muay Thai and I anticipate she will be able to win this fight quite easily on the scorecards given her proficiency in the clinch. She is not as big as Gomes but it is also worth noting Gomes carries a bit more weight than she needs. It would not surprise me to see the underdog take this one but Lookboonmee is way more reliable and technically sound. She also has excellent coaches around her with George Hickman and the team at Tiger Muay Thai. Loma Lookboonmee by Decision
Nick: Lookboonmee is known for her advanced Muay-Thai fighting style. She’s a volume striker who throws consistent volume and most of her success comes exchanging in the clinch. She has shown continuous improvements at the UFC level, and although she is coming off a loss to Lupita Godinez, she seems to improve every time we see her in the cage. Denise Gomes will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Rayanne Amanda. She fights aggressively, primarily as a striker, but she is far from technically refined. While effective on the offensive end, her mediocre footwork and head movement often leaves her in compromising positions defensively. Lookboonmee is the rightful favorite here. She has faced the higher level or competition, she’s far more experienced, and on the feet I expect her to outclass Gomes significantly. Loma Lookboonmee by Decision

Trevin Giles -225 vs Louis Cosce +180

Anthony: This should be a competitive welterweight fight between Louis Cosce and Trevin Giles. I believe that Cosce is the more powerful striker of these two but leaves a lot to be desired in the octagon. Neither one of these guys are fun to have money riding on but Giles often is a bit less stressful a sweat. He is the better mixed martial artist of the two, incorporating wrestling and grappling into his approach far more sparingly than Cosce does. I find Giles the more likely to win rounds in this fight by keeping a consistent pace and showing the judges more than Cosce can. I agree Cosce is the more likely of the two to win this fight inside the distance, but if Giles can survive the first round, I think he takes the fight. Cosce has shown a very suspect gas tank and if he does not get the win early, I would not trust him to do so late. His striking is dependent on landing big shots and his freestyle wrestling seems a bit rushed and sloppy. Trevin Giles by Decision
Nick: Trevin Giles is primarily a boxer. He has a powerful jab and does a good job using it to set up his power shots. As effective as he is offensively, he sometimes gets overconfident and leaves his hands down. He’s coming off back-to-back losses to Michael Morales and Driscus du Plessis, and he’ll be taking a considerable step down in competition here against Luis Cosce. Cosce has been out of action since December of 2020. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Sasha Palatnikov. He was a -600 favorite in that matchup, he looked good early, but his gas tank completely ran out and he was taken out in the second round by a much less dangerous opponent than Giles. Giles will have a technical advantage on the feet here. He also has enough grappling ability to keep this fight standing. As long as he can weather the early storm of Cosce, he should be able to lean on his superior striking both offensively and defensively as he finds himself back in the win column. Trevin Giles by Round Three KO

Pat Sabatini -200 vs Damon Jackson +160

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with a featherweight fight between Pat Sabatini and Damon Jackson. I am becoming a big fan of Sabatini as he continues to make his mark in the UFC. Since joining the promotion he has gone 4-0, displaying excellent Fight IQ and control of opponents on the mat. Sabatini is a black belt in BJJ under Daniel Gracie. He averages more than a takedown per round and faces an opponent today who also does his best work on the mat. Jackson is a very slippery grappler with fifteen professional wins by submission. He is just as dangerous as Sabatini but less dominant positionally. While Jackson may find moments in this fight rolling, he is not as refined as Sabatini is on the feet. Renzo Gracie Philly is slowly turning him into an animal in the striking department. Sabatini is much more explosive than Jackson on the feet and if he elects to keep this fight standing, he can likely win even more easily. I am happily going to bet him once again here at -200 or better. Pat Sabatini by Decision
Nick: Sabatini is a well-rounded fighter with decent striking ability and slick BJJ. He is excellent in scrambles, he has shown solid body-lock takedown ability and his greatest strength comes via his strong wrestling base and takedown entries. Damon Jackson finds most of his success on the ground as well, with eight of his last eleven wins coming via submission. Jackson will have an experience advantage here, but I see Sabatini as the more powerful and athletic grappler. If this fight takes place on the feet, Jackson should have his moments. That being said I see Sabatini as the more dangerous striker as well as the more defensively sound. It wouldn’t shock me to see Jackson pull off an upset here, but Sabatini is a deserving favorite. Pat Sabatini by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Anthony Hernandez -210 vs Marc-Andre Barriault +170

Anthony: Opening the main card is a middleweight bout between Anthony Hernandez and Marc-Andre Barriault. I am a bit perplexed by the betting odds here as neither man has been a real juggernaut in this division. Barriault is a fighter that I like a lot due to his style. He employs very high pressure to work opponents against the cage and put together longer combinations than most. I consider him much more dangerous than Hernandez when this fight is standing, and far less dangerous as this bout hits the mat. Fluffy Hernandez averages nearly two takedowns per round and threatens very often with his chokes. The BJJ brown belt will have an easy night of work if successful getting Barriault off of his feet. Prolonged success against high level fighters earns my vote for Hernandez but this is a matchup I am not confident calling at all. Both men are known for their cardio but I could see intense wrestling draining the powerbar of Barriault. Anthony Hernandez by Round Three Submission
Nick: Barriault pushes at a serious pace. He has decent power and does a good job putting pressure on his opponents. His durability allows him to easily close distance and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges on the feet. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come via taking damage easy and waiting for his opponents to drain their gas tanks then taking over late. Hernandez’s submission ability is certainly his greatest strength, but he’s also competent on the feet with two professional wins via KO. Hernandez should be able to hang on the feet here, but his clearest path to victory will be to take this fight to the mat as six of his nine professional wins have come via submission. Even if Hernandez can’t find a finish, I do expect he’ll have a considerable enough wrestling advantage here to control position for the better part of three rounds. Anthony Hernandez by Decision

Tanner Boser -185 vs Rodrigo Nascimento +150

Anthony: Next is a heavyweight fight at heavyweight between Rodrigo Nascimento and Tanner Boser. Both men enjoyed a layoff of more than one year since their last appearance. Boser seems to be in phenomenal shape weighing just 229 pounds. He has excellent hand speed and crisp boxing, making him once again the favorite against a slower heavyweight. Nascimento is a purple belt in jiu jitsu and very reliant on getting fights to the mat. I expect we see him outclassed by Boser on the feet as his looping overhands connect far less often than the Canadian’s well-placed shots. Nascimento is a live dog using his weight to smother Boser but 70 percent takedown defense should be sufficient today. If Boser fights smart and stays on the outside I see him having a lot of success against Nascimento, who will likely be chasing him down. It is also worth mentioning that Boser has never been submitted in his career. Tanner Boser by Round One KO
Nick: Nascimento enters this matchup with 6 of his 8 Wins coming via Submission. He’s a decorated BJJ Blackbelt, who in almost all of his fights tries to drag things to the mat as early as possible. He would have nine wins, but his last fight against Alan Baudot was overturned after Nascimento had tested positive for a banned substance. If Boser can keep this fight on the feet, he should be able to outpoint Nascimento and pick him apart at range. Boser is small for a heavyweight, but his lighter frame allows him to practice advanced footwork. He’s very quick for the weight class and he does a good job moving in and out of his opponent’s range in striking exchanges. Nascimento is going to be very Live for the upset here if he can drag Boser to the mat early. However, Boser has shown a solid 70% takedown defense in the UFC in spite of the fact he’s been facing primarily grapplers. I expect he’ll be able to keep this fight standing long enough to eventually put Nascimento out by knockout. Tanner Boser by Round Three KO

Joe Pyfer -500 vs Alen Amedovski +375

Anthony: Next is a middleweight bout with Alen Amedovski facing the debuting Joe Pyfer. Securing the only finish on week one of Dana White’s Contender Series earned Pyfer much more hype than I feel is warranted. He is a big and strong kickboxer with excellent power and aggression, but a line of -500 is just insane. Amedovski is a brawler that will be content to stand and trade shots with his young adversary here. Pyfer is the side given his advantage in speed and durability, but I am not confident betting him in this style of a fight. The under 1.5 rounds seems like a better play than laying absurd odds on a promotional newcomer. Thankfully for backers it usually does not take long for Amedovski to crumble. A tough weight cut also significantly hurts Amedovski’s chance for a win. Joe Pyfer by Round One KO
Nick: Alen Amedovski is coming off three consecutive losses. There’s a very good chance he’s cut from the roster if he can’t pull off the upset in this matchup. He has decent power on the feet, but he telegraphs many of his shots and as a result he often finds himself on the wrong end of exchanges. His grappling seems to be more of a weakness than a strength and it feels very much like the UFC is setting him up for failure in this particular matchup. Renzo Gracie Philly and he seems to be a personality the UFC hopes to feature moving forward. Pyfer is well-rounded, but his power certainly seems to be his greatest attribute. He is coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Ozzy Diaz and six of his nine professional wins have come via KO. Amedovski is a small Middleweight, which means Pyfer should certainly have a size and strength advantage here. The line is getting a bit out of hand, but he should outclass Amedovski no matter where this one goes. Joe Pyfer by Round One KO

Andre Fili -130 vs Bill Algeo +110

Anthony: The featured bout is a featherweight scrap between Andre Fili and Bill Algeo. I had faded Algeo in his first few UFC bouts but found myself leaning his way here. He has all the physical advantages over Fili and I believe that no matter where this fight goes he has the slight edge. Fili is primarily a wrestler looking to take bouts to the mat but Algeo has demonstrated excellent awareness when grappling. He is far more volume oriented than Fili and likely will be the one pushing the tempo and working toward a finish on the feet. Algeo’s ability to switch stances and maintain a frenetic pace makes me confident taking him here in a pick’em fight. Fili has won just a single bout since the start of 2020. He seems to struggle more with adversity now than he had been in the first half of his long fighting career. Bill Algeo by Decision
Nick: Fili is a well-rounded fighter. He throws powerful strikes, he has solid wrestling and his athleticism allows him to stay competitive against a wide range of top-level opponents. He’s an effective striker that uses his length well, but he’s relied on his grappling and wrestling in most of his professional victories. Algeo’s striking looks solid offensively, but he often seems to leave himself open to counter-shots. He has a long frame, but he doesn’t fully utilize his reach advantage as he throws a lot of crosses and looping hooks. He puts together effective combos, but he often leaves his hands down too low against good counter punchers. Algeo has underrated offensive grappling as a BJJ black belt, but I don’t expect him to lean on that part of his game here. While Algeo is certainly a competent grappler, I expect Fili to have a considerable wrestling advantage. Additionally, he likely has a technical advantage on the feet when these two are exchanging strikes. As long as he doesn’t engage in a chaotic brawl with Algeo, this feels like his fight for Fili to get back on track. Andre Fili by Decision

Chidi Njokuani -130 vs Gregory Rodrigues +110

Anthony: The co-main event is a fun middleweight scrap between Gregory Rodrigues and Chidi Njokuani. This is a very high-level fight. Both men had impressive careers outside of the UFC and realized immediate success upon recently joining the promotion. Rodrigues is on a 5-1 winning streak with the only loss coming by split decision against Armen Petrosyan. We have seen him absolutely relentless in his pressure and volume striking as of late. I do consider Rodrigues a brawler but he has eaten some incredible shots without the slightest of wobbles. I am happy to bet on him at even odds considering that durability and his overall activity. Njokuani is a kickboxer with great power and accuracy. He is explosive and a real threat in the early going of fights but I do believe Rodrigues is the better man over a more prolonged period. I expect the Brazilian to win most exchanges on the feet and potentially find success on the mat if he elects to pursue the takedown. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Three KO
Nick: Rodrigues has a BJJ black belt, but he’s found most of his success just standing and striking at range. He’s massive for the division, but he carries so much muscle that it seems he fades if his fights get into the later rounds. He’s coming off a dominant win over Julian Marquez. He outclassed Marquez by a wide margin in that spot, taking him out via KO just 3:18 into the first round. Njokuani is an extremely gifted striker who does his best work at range. He showed in his Contender Series win over Mario Sousa that he can be an effective grappler as well, but he is certainly most comfortable when his fights stay standing. He has since secured two wins under the UFC banner, both via KO. He’s going to have a 4” reach advantage in this matchup, and defensively he’s shown to be the more technically sound striker compared to Rodrigues. If Rodrigues chooses to grapple here, I expect he can win minutes against Njokuani consistently. That being said, his fighting IQ seems questionable at best. It seems more likely than not that he chooses to stand and trade here. This is a low confidence play, but I see Njokuani getting it done in this spot. Chidi Njokuani by Round Two KO

Cory Sandhagen -200 vs Song Yadong +160

Anthony: Tonight’s main event takes place at bantamweight between Cory Sandhagen and Yadong Song. We saw Sandhagen’s title hopes take a detour after his previous two bouts, but he still has an incredibly bright future. He is a big, flashy striker here in the lower weight classes and I think the UFC really wants to reward him if he continues to put on performances such as his last. I love his calculated aggression and the wide arsenal of strikes he can throw with confidence. Yadong is another bright prospect that could certainly gain more hype with a win this evening. He does well mixing wrestling with power focused boxing on the feet. Sandhagen is the far more technical striker and enjoys a huge reach advantage. This is a dangerous fight for Sandhagen but I really expect him to win convincingly. His footwork and constant movement should keep him out of harm’s way for however long this bout lasts. Yadong will be reliant on either landing the big shot or landing takedowns. Against an opponent this agile I see him struggling to find any sort of rhythm. Sandhagen has fought the likes of Petr Yan and T.J. Dillashaw as of late. It is not a stretch saying that this is a step down in competition for the fourth ranked contender. I feel very confident betting him at the current odds. Cory Sandhagen by Round Four KO
Nick: Sandhagen’s greatest strength is certainly his advanced technical striking. He averages a ridiculous 6.42 significant strikes landed per minute while carrying a highly impressive +1.92 strike differential. Sandhagen has outstanding cardio, which comes as no surprise as he trains in the thin Colorado air at Elevation Fight Team. Sandhagen generally does a good job keeping distance and using his length to pepper his opponents while staying out of danger. He’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, but both of those losses came to former Bantamweight Champions in Petry Yan and TJ Dillashaw. While Yadong certainly represents a step down in competition for him here, he’ll need to be careful not to overlook his opponent. Song Yadong has serious power with eight of his nineteen professional wins coming by way of knockout. He’s an effective striker that does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow the momentum of his opponents. Primarily a striker, we have seen Yadong continue to improve on his grappling ability. These improvements are likely a result of the fact he’s been training out of Team Alpha Male (a camp loaded with talented wrestlers). His KO wins over Julio Arce and Marlon Moraes are both impressive, but there is no denying he’s taking on the toughest opponent of his career here against Sandhagen. Yadong will have a power advantage here, but I see Sandhagen outlanding him in terms of volume and being very difficult for Yadong to find. Additionally, this will be the first five round fight of Yadong’s career and Sandhagen has gone five rounds in each of his last two. Yadong will be dangerous early here, but I expect Sandhagen to pick him apart at range until he can weaponize his cardio late against a younger and less experienced opponent. Cory Sandhagen by Round Five KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_