UFC 279 Analysis & Betting Guide

UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson – 9.10.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson. An extremely hectic week in Las Vegas has resulted in numerous changes at the top of this UFC card. The main event between Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson was made official on Friday. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 230-132-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 232-130-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-9-2022 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Darian Weeks -125 vs Yohan Lainesse +105

Anthony: The card begins today with a welterweight matchup of Darian Weeks and Yohan Lainesse. These are two fighters each coming off a loss in their most recent appearances this April. Lainesse faced a tough test in Gabe Green and despite landing a first-round knockdown, he was ultimately overwhelmed by his opponent’s volume striking. Weeks presents a very similar challenge stylistically and it will be crucial for Lainesse to make the proper adjustments facing another high-pressure opponent today. At near even odds I will be picking Lainesse but trusting him as he ascends the rankings is a whole other story. He needs to make improvements in his cardio and shot placement as he takes on upper echelon fighters. With that being said Weeks has a rather thin resume and I am not convinced he belongs in the UFC. Lainesse is bigger, stronger and much more threatening on the feet. Yohan Lainesse by Round One KO
Nick: Darian Weeks is coming off back-to-back losses and there is a decent chance he could be cut from the roster if he can’t secure a win in this spot. Weeks is fairly well-rounded, but he’s still far from developed. He looked decent in his UFC debut, a decision loss to Bryan Barberena, but that was a chaotic brawl and anything but technical. He fell to a highly regarded prospect in Ian Garry his last time out. He did a decent job controlling Garry against the cage. However, he never really caused much damage. Lainesse is massive for a welterweight. He has a very large frame. His striking is far from refined in terms of technical ability, but he carries devastating power in his punches with six of his eight professional wins coming via KO. Lainesse is coming off a hard fought but ugly KO loss to Gabe Green in his UFC debut. He was landing his power shots early, but he wasn’t able to put Green away and he eventually got caught as his cardio began to fade. If this fight takes place solely on the feet, Lainesse is very live for an upset. He’s a much more powerful striker and he’s shown he can land from a variety of angles. That being said, I expect Weeks is going to have a significant wrestling advantage. I think he knows that his best chance will be to try to make this an ugly and boring scrap. Lainesse is going to be extremely dangerous early. However, if he can’t take out Weeks quickly, I see Weeks taking over in the second and third rounds. Darian Weeks by Round Three KO

Melissa Martinez -170 vs Elise Reed +130

Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s strawweight between Elise Reed and Melissa Martinez. This is the UFC debut for Martinez who enters the promotion as an undefeated 25-year-old. She is undersized against most opponents at 115 pounds but her agility and fast hands make her a promising prospect nonetheless. Compared to Reed she is the much better kickboxer, landing strikes with higher volume and executing well in close range. I am skeptical backing Martinez due to her lengthy hiatus from competition but this seems like a favorable draw. Reed is accustomed to striking with her opponents and Martinez should be able to stay one step ahead. There are not many clear paths to victory for the underdog given her deficiency when fights hit the mat. Melissa Martinez by Decision
Nick: Melissa Martinez will be making her UFC debut here as a former Combate Global Strawweight Champion. She is undefeated professionally at 7-0, but she hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. It is also somewhat concerning here that she has been out of action since December of 2019. Reed is a tough and gritty military vet who is more than willing to take shots in order to throw them. She has decent footwork, and her boxing is refined. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. She is coming off an ugly loss via round three KO to Sam Hughes. She was dramatically out grappled in that spot. She had moments on her feet, but she never really found any momentum offensively. This is a tough fight to call as there are a lot of questions surrounding Martinez here. However, based on everything we’ve seen on film I expect she’ll have technical advantages at striking range. Reed is certainly live for an upset, especially if she can lean on her grappling. However, Martinez is the pick. She should land the more powerful and consistent shots at range. Melissa Martinez by Decision

Alatengheili -175 vs Chad Anheliger +135

Anthony: Here we have an interesting bantamweight fight with Chad Anheliger taking on Alatengheili. I have struggled to get a good read on Alatengheili after his impressive UFC debut. The Chinese prospect has very good wrestling but still has work to do in terms of mixing the martial arts. His striking is basic but effective. Anheliger is a much more reckless fighter looking to throw looping shots and connect with his opponent. He is undefeated since 2014 but the level of competition is suspect compared to that of Alatengheili. It feels like this bout gets decided by Anheliger’s takedown defense which we have yet to see tested by a wrestler this caliber. I am not confident at all picking a lower-level matchup like this but my expectation is Alateng dictating where this bout takes place. He seems like the rightful favorite but I am not ready to trust him with my hard earned money. These odds seem a bit inflated after his quick win by knockout over Kevin Croom. Alatengheili by Decision
Nick: Alatengheili is coming off an impressive first round KO win over Kevin Croom. He is 3-1-1 in the UFC, fighting out of an excellent camp in Fight Ready under Santino Defranco and Eddie Cha. He’s well-rounded with surprising power for his frame, and he continues to show improvement every time we see him fight. Chad Anheliger is 35 years old, so if he’s going to make any noise in the UFC he’ll need to secure some wins in a hurry. He’s coming off an impressive comeback victory in his UFC debut over Jesse Strader, but there is no denying this matchup represents a step up in competition. Anheliger should look good early here, but I don’t expect him to be able to put Alatengheili away. It seems more likely that Alatengheili can catch him with a power shot, or lean on his grappling ability to grind out a decision. His wrestling has come a long way since he’s made his debut, and we’ve seen him have success on the mat against much better grapplers than Anheliger. Alatengheili by Decision

Norma Dumont -430 vs Danyelle Wolf +320

Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s featherweight between Norma Dumont and Danyelle Wolf. It is laughable seeing Dumont at a -430 against anyone after her most recent performance, a deflating loss facing Macy Chiasson. However, Wolf is a mere 1-0 as a professional martial artist. She has dynamic boxing and much faster hands than Dumont, but when this fight hits the mat I expect one way traffic. A brown belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu like Dumont will have no problem cutting through Wolf on the ground. Any clinch position will favor her even if Dumont is unsuccessful shooting for traditional takedown attempts. It is easy to justify her as the favorite but I won’t be betting Norma at odds this wide. Instead I recommend chasing a prop bet and taking Dumont by submission as I see it the most likely outcome of this fight. Norma Dumont by Round Two Submission
Nick: Dumont is coming off an ugly decision loss as a -225 favorite against Macy Chiasson. She seemed tentative in that spot, but it seems like she’ll have a solid chance to get back in the win column here against a fairly inexperienced opponent in Danyelle Wolf. Dumont has decent striking ability, but most of her recent success has come via her positional grappling ability. She can score takedowns against the cage or in open space and she does a good job staying heavy when she’s on top of her opponent. Dumont has excellent low kicks which she should be able to use to keep Wolf from pressing forward here. Danyelle Wolf is making her UFC debut, coming off a Contender Series win over Taneisha Tennant back in September of 2020. She is only 1-0 in professional MMA, but she holds a 27-14 professional boxing record. At 39-years-old, her window for success in the UFC seems small. She obviously prefers to fight at striking range. She works well behind her jab. She throws crisp combinations offensively and she has decent footwork and head movement. That being said, this is not a boxing match. Most boxers seem to struggle when they make the transition to MMA, so it’s tough to expect much from Wolf at this level. I expect Dumont to lean on a grappling heavy game plan here as she cruises to a convincing win. Norma Dumont by Round Two Submission

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Jake Collier -500 vs Chris Barnett +350

Anthony: The preliminary card opens with Jake Collier and Chris Barnett at heavyweight. Barnett was one of several fighters missing weight yesterday, coming in more than a pound heavy. It is rare we see a weight miss in this division especially from a man that is just 5’9”. While Collier is the better fighter than Barnett I find it crazy he is drawing action at odds this wide. We often see Collier utilize a high pace and large variety of attacks to keep opponents retreating. He is not known for his knockout power but instead a more volume centric approach to wear down foes. Barnett will not find many winnable fights in this division but I certainly categorize Collier as that. With Barnett having such power and quickness I find him very live here as the underdog. His ability to close distance and crack could spell trouble for a hefty favorite that is looking to extend this bout into the later rounds. Barnett also gets to draw from a live crowd once again after most recently competing at The Apex. I am hoping he steals the show one more time as was the case at Madison Square Garden. Chris Barnett by Round Two KO
Nick: Collier is the more technical striker in this matchup and he certainly has the better gas tank. As a former middleweight, he doesn’t really have finishing power in his new division. Still, he does a good job throwing a lot of volume and putting consistent pressure on his opponents. He is coming off a controversial decision loss to Andrei Arlovski in a fight where the majority of the MMA media felt he should have been awarded a decision win. He did a good job hanging in the pocket with Arlovski, mixing in his grappling and fighting at a consistent pace. Chris Barnett throws more spinning attacks and high kicks than we usually see from a Heavyweight. He’s only 5’9” so in all actuality he should be fighting at a much lower weight class. Barnett has a puncher’s chance early, but I expect he’ll be outclassed no matter where this one goes. Collier is the more powerful striker, the better technical striker, and also the better grappler. It’s also a bad sign that Barnett missed weight for this bout. The line has gotten out of hand, but I do expect Collier can secure a win with relative ease. Jake Collier by Round One KO

Jamie Pickett -140 vs Denis Tiuliulin +110

Anthony: Next is a middleweight fight between Denis Tiuliulin and Jamie Pickett. The odds have stayed close to par for this matchup as one would think by comparing the resumes of each. Pickett has had mixed results since joining the UFC and I am always skeptical to trust him with my money. Compared to Tiuliulin I consider him the more dangerous and versatile striker. Pickett should stay behind a jab and work various attacks throughout this fight as a more boxing centric opponent walks toward him. Tiuliulin does have great timing and hand speed which gives me pause considering the questions surrounding Pickett’s durability. Grappling is a major deficiency of Tiuliulin but I’m not convinced Pickett will exert energy dragging this bout to the mat. It’s an incredibly close call but I ever so slightly lean the way of Pickett. We have seen Tiuliulin take losses against much less daunting matchups than the one he draws today. Jamie Pickett by Decision
Nick: Pickett carries serious power on the feet, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He absorbs more than five strikes per minute and he’s starting to develop a reputation as a slow starter. He’s coming off a loss to Kyle Daukaus via first round submission. He was out grappled badly in that fight. He had moments on the feet, but Daukaus showed a very high Fight IQ as he took advantage of Pickett’s lacking defensive grappling ability. Denis Tiuliulin is coming off a loss in his UFC debut, but that didn’t come as much of a surprise as he was facing Aliaskhab Khizriev as a +650 underdog. Tiuliulin is strong, athletic and decent on the feet, but he telegraphs his power shots, so they are fairly easy for opponents to defend. He struggled to defend takedowns in that matchup with Khizriev, but he should have more success here against a fighter in Pickett who will likely be more content to stand and trade. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call, but I slightly prefer Tiuliulin. I don’t regard either of these fighters that highly, but I like that he’s more likely to be the aggressor. So far in the UFC he lands nearly two significant strikers more per minute than Pickett does. Denis Tiuliulin by Decision

Jailton Almeida -670 vs Anton Turkalj +450

Anthony: Jailton Almeida will be facing Anton Turkalj at a catchweight of 220 pounds. Both men look to be in excellent shape despite the short notice nature of this booking. Almeida is a problem. He is a dominant force on the mat, taking down opponents and utilizing incredible control to find himself wins by both submission and knockout. He is a jiu jitsu black belt and one of the most promising athletes to emerge from Dana White’s Contender Series. In his three octagon appearances, Almeida had shot for a takedown within the first minute of each bout. Turkalj has good offensive grappling but I see him quickly getting smothered in this spot. He does not display Fight IQ on the mat anywhere near that of Malhadinho. Turkalj can crack with great power for a light heavyweight too, but this is a stylistic matchup that will limit those opportunities. There is no value on Almeida as a straight bet with odds this juicy. I think he dominates early in this matchup and instead looks at betting him to get the finish inside one round. Jailton Almeida by Round One Submission
Nick: Jailton Almeida is coming off back-to-back dominant wins over Danilo Marques and Parker Porter, both of which came via first round KO via ground and pound. He’s extremely explosive and athletic, with solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida has shown excellent takedown ability, weight control and sweeping ability. He has dominated most grappling exchanges in all of his fights. He showed a very high fight IQ since he signed with the promotion. He’s dangerous everywhere, but he does an excellent job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents. Anton Turkalj will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Acácio dos Santos. He wasn’t awarded a contract for his performance, but he’s getting a chance at the UFC here as he’s taking this fight on short notice. Turkalj has decent power on the feet, but most of his success has come against inferior grapplers. I expect he’ll struggle here considering how advanced Almeida’s abilities are in both wrestling and BJJ. Credit goes to Turkalj for taking this fight on short notice, but I expect he’ll be significantly outmatched. Almeida should have advantages no matter where this one goes. Jailton Almeida by Round One KO

Hakeem Dawodu -230 vs Julian Erosa +180

Anthony: Closing out the prelims we have a great matchup between Hakeem Dawodu and Julian Erosa. Dawodu was several pounds over the featherweight limit yesterday. A grueling weight cut makes me hesitant to back him as a sizable favorite, especially given the high pressure gameplan Erosa often employs. He constantly moves forward and mixes rather unorthodox striking with a good wrestling base. Erosa is not quite as proficient a striker, but his size advantage certainly makes things a bit easier than usual on the feet today. He has five inches on Dawodu. While it is fair to say Dawodu is superior technically, I’m hesitant to expect that to be proven over the course of fifteen minutes. Dawodu has not won by finish since his UFC debut. If Erosa can set and keep a frenetic pace here, he will have the cardio advantage come round three. It seems to me he is the value side expecting we hear the judge’s scorecards. Erosa could even win this fight convincingly if he grapples from pillar to post. I view his jiu jitsu a few levels above that of Dawodu. Julian Erosa by Decision
Nick: We have what should be a fun matchup here between two fighters who prefer to stand and trade. Dawodu is the more powerful striker of the two and likely the more technically sound as well. That being said, Erosa does an excellent job putting pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight moving backwards. The biggest knock on Dawodu is that as talented as he is, he waits for fights to come to him. Additionally, he often fails to put out significant volume. He does a good job mixing up his strikes, but he’s primarily a counter striker. In this particular matchup, that should play to his advantage. With Erosa constantly moving forward, I expect him to walk into Dawodu’s shots and take the more significant damage. Erosa is certainly a live underdog. He has a path to win via his superior grappling and it’s somewhat concerning that Dawodu missed weight for this fight. That being said, I see Dawodu taking Erosa out before his cardio comes into play. Hakeem Dawodu by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Ion Cutelaba -200 vs Johnny Walker +160

Anthony: The main card begins with a fun light heavyweight scrap featuring Johnny Walker and Ion Cutelaba. Both are very offensive in their approach, oftentimes recklessly exchanging with the man standing across from them. I doubt this fight sees the scorecards. Walker got put to sleep facing Jamahal Hill his last time out and many have written off his chin as a result. It is certainly concerning the number of times Walker has been finished but I am still tempted to back him as such a sizeable underdog. Cutelaba’s Fight IQ is just as suspect and while he likely wins this match grappling I am not convinced that is the game plan we see. Cutelaba could be a bit hesitant to dive at the legs of Walker after recently getting caught in a guillotine choke versus Ryan Spann. Walker also thrives in close range, giving him viable outs landing in the clinch against an opponent constantly moving forward. I am confident predicting a stoppage win in this matchup but not so much deciding a winner. The bigger and more explosive Walker gets my vote. Johnny Walker by Round One KO
Nick: Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. He’s coming off an ugly loss via Submission to Ryan Spann. He was overaggressive in that fight and ran into a standing guillotine. Johnny Walker was once considered a future title contender at light heavyweight, but his stock has plummeted over the past couple of years. He’s extremely gifted in terms of athletic ability, but his fighting IQ leaves a lot to be desired. He carries serious power in all of his limbs, but he’s very hittable in exchanges. He’s become a more measured fighter since he began training under John Kavanagh at SBG Ireland, but many feel that Walker’s hyper-aggressiveness is what made him dangerous when he was winning consistently. Given the general volatility of both of these fighters, this is a tough one to call. However, I’m siding with the favorite. I expect Cutelaba to control the pace early here. I like that he can lean on his wrestling if he needs to, and I have trouble backing Walker given his seemingly depleted durability. Ion Cutelaba by Round One KO

Irene Aldana -175 vs Macy Chiasson +135

Anthony: Next is a matchup between Irene Aldana and Macy Chiasson. This was moved to a catchweight of 140 pounds after Chiasson had difficulties on the scale yesterday. She could certainly benefit from the extra allowance here given the size advantage held over Aldana. While I consider Chiasson a live dog it is hard to imagine her succeeding on the feet here for prolonged periods. Aldana is a much better boxer and a gap in speed and precision will be evident. When Chiasson does well striking it is in positions against the fence or in the clinch. Aldana should keep Chiasson on the end of her punches and have very little to worry about in terms of the damage being returned. Grappling is the clearest path to victory for Chiasson but with Aldana defending 84 percent of opponent shots, takedowns will not come easy either. At these odds I feel comfortable taking Aldana who I view as the far more promising fighter long term. Chiasson has struggled making weight before and the result was not very pretty. Irene Aldana by Decision
Nick: Irene Aldana is coming off an impressive win over Yana Kunitskaya, which came via first round ground-and-pound KO. She has been out of action since that fight back in 2021, but she is one of the more powerful punchers in this division. She has solid boxing ability, she throws meaningful shots, and her combinations are amongst the most effective in the division. Chiasson is most effective striking in the clinch. She carries a powerful muay-thai base from which she mixes in dangerous elbows. She uses her reach well, but she is most effective when she closes distance and pulls her opponents into her strikes. She’s coming off an impressive upset win over Norma Dumont as a +185 underdog. She did a good job mixing in takedowns in that fight. They caught Dumont off guard which allowed Chiasson to pull away on the scorecards. If Chiasson can execute a grappling heavy attack, she’ll be live to pull off an upset. However, I think it is more likely that Aldana can keep this standing as she picks Chiasson apart at range. Simply, Aldana is the more technically advanced and dangerous striker. Irene Aldana by Decision

Daniel Rodriguez -150 vs Li Jingliang +120

Anthony: The featured bout is a matchup between Daniel Rodriguez at Li Jingliang. The three fights that will close the evening were announced yesterday. As a result of Khamzat Chimaev missing weight, a shuffle of welterweights ends up pairing these two. Rodriguez is a full nine pounds heavier than The Leech and that may very well end up being the difference in this fight. He has very heavy hands and dynamic striking out of the southpaw stance. The boxing is not very crisp but D-Rod gets the job done with unrelenting volume and pressure. Li Jingliang will also be looking to strike but more focused on placing single shots that can alter this bout’s outcome. He is explosive and a real threat in the welterweight division, but I do not see him cruising in this bout like he may have against El Cucuy. Being at a weight disadvantage negates the power a bit and makes me very concerned about his own durability. These odds can still move but Rodriguez seems like the rightful favorite to me. However he has also been out of action for a year and allegedly recovering from a hand injury. I want to bet on him but may not get to the window with plenty of other fights to choose from. Daniel Rodriguez by Round Three KO
Nick: With Holland now slated to fight Chimaev, and Tony Ferguson now slated to fight Nate Diaz, Li Jingliang will now be taking on Daniel Rodriguez. Credit goes to Jingliang here as he’s willing to take on an opponent that weighed-in nearly nine pounds heavier than he did. Li Jingliang is a powerful striker with a fun aggressive style. He is extremely dangerous offensively, but we’ve seen him get reckless at times in exchanges. He struggles against wrestlers, but he’s always live for a KO as his power is amongst the most devastating in the division. Rodriguez has very sharp boxing, which isn’t surprising as he is currently coached by Joe Schilling. He hasn’t really used his grappling much at the UFC level, but he holds a Brown Belt in BJJ via 10th Planet. He’s certainly a well-rounded fighter on paper, and he’s coming off the biggest win of his career via decision over Kevin Lee. After injuring his hand in that fight, he was forced to get surgery. As a result, he has been out of action since August of 2021. Even with Rodriguez having a considerable advantage in terms of weight, I see Li Jingliang as the more powerful and explosive striker. In a fight I expect should primarily take place on the feet, I think Li has a good chance to pull off the upset. Li Jingliang by Round Two KO

Khamzat Chimaev -550 vs Kevin Holland +400

Anthony: The co-main event will be a five-round bout with Khamzat Chimaev fighting Kevin Holland. There was a physical altercation between these two at the press conference held this Thursday. Both ran their mouths throughout this fight week and now matchup with one another as a result of Chimaev’s weight miss. This is a nightmare draw for Holland. We’ve seen massive improvements in Holland’s wrestling and defensive grappling but now he faces one of the absolute best on the mat. Given the physical composition of both men it is safe to assume the first takedown by Khamzat comes rather easily. He’s a much stronger man. Shortly after I expect him to control the wrist of Holland and work diligently from a position he is very comfortable with. Holland could stun Chimaev on the feet but he isn’t known for his power as much as he is speed and precision. Maybe he can outwork Chimaev if we see a round four and five, but I doubt the cardio checks out if Holland spends a significant portion of this bout on the ground. I am hesitant to play Chimaev at -550 if rumors of an injury are true. In all likelihood though he steamrolls Kevin Holland and begins to rebuild the hype surrounding him. I see a finish materializing inside of the first ten minutes. Khamzat Chimaev by Round Two Submission
Nick: Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a blackbelt under Travis Lutter. He’s coming off back-to-back wins at welterweight over veterans Alex Oliveira and Tim Means, both of which came via second round finishes. Khamzat Chimaev is one of the more hyped prospects the UFC has ever seen. He’s an extremely talented grappler known to lift his opponents fully in the air, carry them to his corner and slam them to the ground. Once grounded he throws devastating ground-and-pound while boasting an advanced arsenal of submissions. He’s an underrated striker with true KO power and many have him pegged as a future champion. He’s coming off the toughest fight of his career, a decision win over Gilbert Burns. He nearly finished Burns multiple times in that matchup, but he seemed to fade a bit as the fight wore on. He was overly willing to brawl against Burns, while he should have leaned more on his advanced wrestling abilities. Chimaev will be taking on Holland here as he missed weight badly for his scheduled fight at 170 against Diaz. This is a similar matchup though, as Holland is unlikely to be able to keep this fight standing for long. Holland will be at a massive wrestling disadvantage here, and we’ve seen Holland struggle against less credentialed wrestlers than Chimaev. As long as Chimaev shoots for takedowns, I expect him to dominate. He should be able to work Holland to the mat here and then win via ground-and-pound. Khamzat Chimaev by Round Two KO

Tony Ferguson -140 vs Nate Diaz +110

Anthony: The main event will be a five-round fight at welterweight between Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz. I’m extremely happy to see this hectic week in combat sports conclude with a scrap between two OGs. These are longtime veterans of the promotion who emerged victorious on The Ultimate Fighter and went on to entertain in numerous fight of the nights. We can expect a striking heavy affair with both men known for their unique styles on the feet. Ferguson is extremely unorthodox in his timing and range of attacks. While El Cucuy has the power to hurt anyone, I don’t think it’s a wise approach to spend prolonged periods in the pocket trading tonight. Diaz is the much better technical boxer and can sustain a high pace with much more ease than Ferguson. I do expect Ferguson to move a lot and stay sharp defensively as was likely the game plan when facing Li Jingliang. However, Tony had been training for a three round fight and I see him struggling to win if Diaz is still around at the end of fifteen minutes. Making an official prediction is tough but Diaz is the side I am sticking with. Perhaps my opinion would be different if these two fought in their prime. It may take Nate a few rounds to get going but once in rhythm I see his hands proving too much for Ferguson. Diaz also has a clear advantage if this fight were to hit the mat. He is one of my all-time favorites and I see him once again proving people wrong and cashing this underdog ticket. Nate Diaz by Decision
Nick: Nate Diaz is one of my favorite fighters of all time. This is likely his last fight under the UFC banner and it’s tough not to feel sentimental considering the moments he has given us over the years. Simply, Nate personifies the spirit of the sport. He’s extremely tough and relentless in his style, and he’s more than willing to eat shots to throw them. He’s extremely talented on the mat as a decorated BJJ Black Belt. He has legendary cardio, and notable Wins over Conor McGregor, Anthony Pettis, and Donald Cerrone. He doesn’t carry much power on the feet, but he pushes at a serious pace and breaks his opponents down with his outstanding volume. He was originally scheduled to fight Khamzat Chimaev here, but with Chimaev missing weight badly, he’s now in a much more winnable fight against another fan favorite in Tony Ferguson. Tony Ferguson used to be one of the more dangerous pound-for-pound fighters on the entire roster. He became known for his devastating striking ability, vicious elbows, and excellent BJJ. He is now on a four-fight losing streak for the first time in his career and he could be on his way out of the UFC with another loss. Similarly to Diaz, Ferguson seems far gone from who he was when he was in his prime. He’ll be moving up to 170 pounds here for the first time since he won The Ultimate Fighter in 2011. This is an extremely exciting matchup and one I could certainly see going either way. Ferguson’s clearest path could be via elbow strikes as he’s been known to cut up his opponents and Diaz has become known for his excessive scar tissue. Still, Diaz had been in camp for a five round fight and Ferguson was not. I expect Ferguson to look good early here, but Diaz’s cardio, volume, and pace should allow him to pull away on the scorecards in the later rounds. Nate Diaz by Decision

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS